How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Harry Bosch]

Again. Absolute bullshit. End the war quickly? Not necessary. Bleed Russia dry. It’s already happening. You keep looking at this through the lens that mass equals force. It doesn’t. Russia doesn’t have the mass that it appears. They have far too many other security threats than Ukraine, particularly internal ones as was so aptly demonstrated a few weeks ago.

Nor can Putin do what he wants. His options are quite limited. He may appear strong on the outside, but he has been severely weakened by this war and every set back results in further alienation. As pointed out above, Russian forces in Bakhmut have become effectively trapped. Russia can’t supply them with food or ammunition. It has trouble supplying all of its front line troops with such. It requires numerous troops just to keep the front line troops in order. They basically steal their supplies. The entire apparatus is corrupt and the Russians aren’t fighting for the government.

the only thing Russia can do is bomb. They have a lot of artillery, and missiles to lob at them. but even these aren’t limitless and by several accounts they are depleting even their stocks of these.

As for the counter offensive, it has seriously degraded Russian capabilities. It is working but it will take time. It doesn’t need thought to have a massive sweep of terrain to be successful either. It just has to degrade Russian operational capacity. Right now Russia has lost a huge of their combat capabilities. Their elite units have been decimated. They’re relying on untrained and unmotivated conscripts for the most part. They just lost their most effective force, Wagner, and Putin can’t afford to rely on the Chechens.

No. Putin is in a world of shit. He will watch his combat power erode further over the next year. He has to worry about a whole scale collapse and revolt by his own Army. Wagner turned on him. So can the rest of the Army. Fuck ‘em. No mercy For them until they are on their knees begging for it. That may take A while, yet, but Ukraine can hold out against Russia for years if necessary. And every Russian casualty is a dagger at Putin’s heart. Soon enough they’ll tire of the cocksucker.

This is exactly the message Churchill delivered to his fellow Britons for years before they finally came to their senses about Hitler and all the comforting bullshit they were being fed about "Peace in our time." Churchill understood the danger and didn't pretend that it was just going to go away if we really, really, really hoped it would and that there would be no cost. The Ukrainians are modern day Greeks fighting modern day Persians to keep their freedom. Failure simply is not an option when it comes to opposing this kind of open aggression that humanity is all too familiar with. Putin must be stopped and must be stopped now. By invading Ukraine he has literally extended his neck so that the head can be severed. For every life unfortunately lost today we will save thousands. For every dollar spent we will save millions. Now is the time.

Totally agree. If we allow Russia to be rewarded for their vicious banditry. And then allow them to rearm against a withering weak west - we'll be in proxy war (or worse) with Russia and China for 50 years. Now is the time. Good intentions don't mean shit. The only way to stop bigger countries from brutalizing smaller ones is to band together and commit to defending against tyranny.

 

[TV and credit cards]

US and UK call for more gratitude from Kyiv after Zelenskiy’s Nato complaint

Comments come after Ukrainian leader complained his country had not been given firm timetable for joining alliance

www.theguardian.com

“Whether we like it or not, people want to see a bit of gratitude,” Wallace said

The US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told a public forum at the summit he believed “the American people do deserve a degree of gratitude from the United States government for their willingness to step up and from the rest of the world as well”.

You expect gratitude for doing what is right? I don't. We should be grateful to Ukraine.

 

[Elixir]

The people need to be massaged to accept the idea.

I want to meet this miracle masseuse.

When someone comes into your home and forces you to watch while they torture, rape and kill your family and loved ones, and destroy all your possessions, it’s going to take one hell of a massage to make you forget about it and want to make peace with them.
Russia is fighting an enemy now that has nothing to lose.

 

[SLD]

US and UK call for more gratitude from Kyiv after Zelenskiy’s Nato complaint

Comments come after Ukrainian leader complained his country had not been given firm timetable for joining alliance

www.theguardian.com

“Whether we like it or not, people want to see a bit of gratitude,” Wallace said

The US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told a public forum at the summit he believed “the American people do deserve a degree of gratitude from the United States government for their willingness to step up and from the rest of the world as well”.

You expect gratitude for doing what is right? I don't. We should be grateful to Ukraine.

Amen! A Defeated Russia will mean peace for decades. It will deter China and any other would be aggressors. We could then cut our bloated defense budget. (Although the neocons will scream).

This is why I want to give Ukraine far more! We could easily give them 1,000 Abrams. Not a few hundred. I mean who the fuck else are we going to use them against? Certainly not China! Maybe North Korea. But not likely. And we have quite a few there anyways. We should be giving them far more artillery, but I realize that shell production is a problem. But we could still do more. Let our stocks go much lower. Again, we don’t need them for anyone else.

And in the end, we will have Ukraine to thank!

 

[ZiprHead]

Top Russian general Surovikin, not seen since Wagner-led mutiny, is "not available"

Russian military commander Gen. Sergey Surovikin, who has not been seen in public since the failed Wagner-led rebellion last month, is “resting” according to a Moscow lawmaker.

"He is resting for now. Not available," Andrey Kartapolov, head of Russia’s State Duma Defense Committee, told the Telegram channel SHOT in a video posted on Wednesday.

Last month's failed insurrection against Moscow, led by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, marked the greatest threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin's tenure since the Kremlin launched its invasion of Ukraine.

 

[TomC]

Amen! A Defeated Russia will mean peace for decades. It will deter China and any other would be aggressors. We could then cut our bloated defense budget. (Although the neocons will scream).

Really, this.

I don't know enough about military stuff to have an opinion worth posting.
But in the broad, long term, scheme of things I think it's crucial that we (meaning all of NATO and such) hand Putin the most crushing defeat possible as soon as possible.
Otherwise we risk another Hitler, a megalomaniac with delusions of empire and also nukes.
Tom

 

[Ford]

Amen! A Defeated Russia will mean peace for decades. It will deter China and any other would be aggressors. We could then cut our bloated defense budget. (Although the neocons will scream).

Really, this.

I don't know enough about military stuff to have an opinion worth posting.
But in the broad, long term, scheme of things I think it's crucial that we (meaning all of NATO and such) hand Putin the most crushing defeat possible as soon as possible.
Otherwise we risk another Hitler, a megalomaniac with delusions of empire and also nukes.
Tom

I wouldn't say we're risking another Hitler, but this is definitely a turning point.

Up until February of last year, Putin was in charge of what I wouldn't exactly call a paper tiger, but at best a cardboard tiger. Only we didn't know.

A seat at the (UN Security Council) table. Near-peer status with the other world powers. The Russian military with a still fearsome reputation. They were not to be trifled with.

Now we know. Nukes aside, Russia's vaunted military has been exposed as weak, corrupt, and ineffective. Thanks to the recent march of Wagner to the outskirts of Moscow, Putin's iron grip on power has been exposed as not so strong. Maybe a bronze grip. Putin's Ukraine gambit has thus far failed spectacularly.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

And Ukraine can keep track of where they drop them.

In principle, any military force that uses cluster munitions (or mines, for that matter) could keep track of where they are so that they can be easily cleared after the end of hostilities.

In practice, this almost never happens, or at least, not with a degree of diligence sufficient to be useful.

Ukraine has good reason to bend over backwards on diligence here. Besides, with Russia already mining the area it all has to be considered dangerous anyway. Dropping cluster bombs into mined areas isn't going to make much difference.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It is possible to both decry the violence and poverty of war while still understanding its necessity in some circumstances. You don't have to be either a brainless patriot or a clueless pacifist. And it's legitimate to critique the US for engaging in war by sending aging cluster bombs to Ukraine no matter what their reason for doing so might be.

I suspect the threat posed by the cluster bombs is far less than the threat by the Russian mines.

And Ukraine can keep track of where they drop them.

If memory serves, that'd be in Ukraine. I have no idea why they are considering using these and why we'd supply them.

Supposedly they are the most efficient way to clear trenches.

And mines.

No. Mines are too small, many will escape. The real mine-clearer is the daisy cutter--but it clears everything and Ukraine doesn't have enough control of the skies to use them.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Kyiv Post paints a promising picture of efforts in Bakhmut. Granted these stories often read like US Navy performance evaluations but it sounds like while they do not have the Russians physically surrounded, precision weapons are keeping anything from moving in or out of the city.

Russians Are ‘Trapped’ in Bakhmut, City Under Ukrainian Fire Control – Kyiv

The latest reports from Ukraine’s military paints a grim picture for Russian forces in the long-besieged city, with many already “engaged and neutralized.”

www.kyivpost.com

I suspected it was going to end up being a trap.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

With Sweden joining, that leaves only Serbia, Austria, Switzerland, and Ireland not in NATO.

Well Australia isn't in NATO either, and nor is China, so that claim seems a little premature (at least without the qualifier "of European nations")

Neither are North Atlantic nations.

 

[SLD]

It is possible to both decry the violence and poverty of war while still understanding its necessity in some circumstances. You don't have to be either a brainless patriot or a clueless pacifist. And it's legitimate to critique the US for engaging in war by sending aging cluster bombs to Ukraine no matter what their reason for doing so might be.

I suspect the threat posed by the cluster bombs is far less than the threat by the Russian mines.

And Ukraine can keep track of where they drop them.

If memory serves, that'd be in Ukraine. I have no idea why they are considering using these and why we'd supply them.

Supposedly they are the most efficient way to clear trenches.

And mines.

No. Mines are too small, many will escape. The real mine-clearer is the daisy cutter--but it clears everything and Ukraine doesn't have enough control of the skies to use them.

I thought line charges were being used and were effective. Not my area though.

 

[SLD]

IAE, another Russian high ranking General is out. GEN Ivan Popov, commander of the 58th combined Army has been relieved after his criticism of the Defense leadership, particularly Gerasimov. He complained specifically of “the lack of counter-battery combat, the absence of artillery reconnaissance stations and the mass deaths and injuries of our brothers from enemy artillery.” Wow! if that’s true, Ukraine really does have the upper hand. He added:

“As many commanders of divisional regiments said today, the servicemen of the armed forces of Ukraine could not break through our army from the front, (but) our senior commander hit us from the rear, treacherously and vilely decapitating the army at the most difficult and tense moment.”

I really think the army could completely turn on Putin. It would be a civil war that would tear their country apart. But it may happen. With remarks like these going out to front line troops, they may abandon their posts and just turn on their masters.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

In WW1, French military commanders' incompetence resulted in French army mutinies. It came close to knocking France out of the war. We are beginning to see this sort of thing beginning to happen in Putin's Russia. And of course, in WW1, Russia's military efforts collapsed. Nobody in Russia's high military command can trust anybody else now. Putin cannot be ignored, but nobody with a brain wants to be seen as a Putin stooge if Putin goes down. A delicate balancing act.

 

[bilby]

Top Russian general Surovikin, not seen since Wagner-led mutiny, is "not available"

Russian military commander Gen. Sergey Surovikin, who has not been seen in public since the failed Wagner-led rebellion last month, is “resting” according to a Moscow lawmaker.

"He is resting for now. Not available," Andrey Kartapolov, head of Russia’s State Duma Defense Committee, told the Telegram channel SHOT in a video posted on Wednesday.

Last month's failed insurrection against Moscow, led by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, marked the greatest threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin's tenure since the Kremlin launched its invasion of Ukraine.

Yeah, he's just "resting".

Remarkable plumage, the Norwegian Blue...

 

[Jayjay]

Russian economy starting to show signs of deterioration:

Russia's economy dealt a crushing blow as its current-account surplus collapses by 93%

Russia's economy took a blow after its current-account surplus tanked 93% to $5.4 billion last quarter from the year before, per the Bank of Russia.

markets.businessinsider.com

The nation posted a current-account surplus of $5.4 billion for the April-June quarter, which marks a 93% plunge from a record $76.7 billion in the same period of 2022, Russia's central bank data show. That's also the smallest excess since the third quarter of 2020.

(...)

"The decline in the surplus of the balance of the external trade in goods in January – June 2023 compared to the comparable period of 2022 was caused by a decrease in both the physical volumes of export deliveries and the deterioration in the price situation for the basic Russian export commodities, energy commodities made the most significant contribution to the decline in the value of exports," the Bank of Russia said.

(...)

In June, Russia's Finance Ministry revealed that revenue from oil and gas taxes fell 36% compared to a year ago to about 570.7 billion rubles, while profits from crude and petroleum products tumbled 31% to 425.7 billion rubles.

Market commentators have weighed in on Russia's battered economy, with Yale researchers claiming President Vladimir Putin is cannibalizing the nation's economy in his mission to seize Ukraine.

Of course, if the official figures start to show the decline, the reality is probably worse. But countries in war economy don't really go bankrupt, they just print or loan more money. But same time next year, situation will be much worse and will increasingly start to affect even the middle-classes in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

 

[TV and credit cards]

IAE, another Russian high ranking General is out. GEN Ivan Popov, commander of the 58th combined Army has been relieved after his criticism of the Defense leadership, particularly Gerasimov. He complained specifically of “the lack of counter-battery combat, the absence of artillery reconnaissance stations and the mass deaths and injuries of our brothers from enemy artillery.” Wow! if that’s true, Ukraine really does have the upper hand. He added:

“As many commanders of divisional regiments said today, the servicemen of the armed forces of Ukraine could not break through our army from the front, (but) our senior commander hit us from the rear, treacherously and vilely decapitating the army at the most difficult and tense moment.”

I really think the army could completely turn on Putin. It would be a civil war that would tear their country apart. But it may happen. With remarks like these going out to front line troops, they may abandon their posts and just turn on their masters.

He may also have to worry about his inner circle turning on him. Prigozhin's antics were every bit as devastating as Russia's failed attempt to take Kyiv in terms of showing the weakness of Putin's regime. Prigozhin should not have been heard from again after his march on Moscow, yet he remains.
ISW has a couple of blurbs and this Sergey Kiriyenko looks like he is positioning himself for greater things.

Russian propaganda can shape the opinion of the Russian people but it cannot change the reality of what those in positions of power in Russia see. Regardless of the situation on the ground in Ukraine, Putin has already lost. He has expanded NATO, moving it closer to Russian borders, increased the defense spending (particularly Poland's) of NATO members, solidified NATO's commitment to Ukraine and in all likelihood, will bring Ukraine into NATO.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Control of the skies is a prerequisite for the avoidance of static defensive ground war. The only other way to break it is to destroy its supply chain, which is virtually impossible without a massively effective blockade, and/or a huge strategic blunder.(On the Western Front in WWI, it took the combination of both).

While Ukraine can't hope to totally break the supply chain they have done serious harm to it.

If Ukraine had a small number of A10 style anti-tank aircraft, and (most critically) sufficient control of the airspace, including suppression of triple-A, for such vulnerable aircraft to be able to survive their sorties, the Russian lines could be broken in short order.

There's no suppressing the MANPAD threat. The A-10s days are over.

But as long as Ukraine cannot effectively undertake aerial attacks against Russian forces behind their defensive lines, it will require the Russians to fuck up massively, if Ukraine is to retake the occupied territory.

Or what we have seen--hollow out the defenses, punch a hole and go around.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine should start talking about peace negotiations. The war is at a stalemate, neither side seems to be able to make progress, and Russia certainly won't make an initiative. But time isn't on Ukraine's side. They should deal when they're on top. Or at least try to steer the war into a direction that they can't win all their land back.

More critical than just acres is that Ukraine gets a permanent border, no matter where it is. Not a frozen conflict where neither side acknowledges the other. Another key part is that there are security guarantees from NATO that make it impossible for Russia to attack again.

Bullshit. Why should Russian aggression be rewarded at all? They agreed to respect Ukrianian boundaries decades ago. Russia can end this war easily. Turn around and go home - even Crimea.

Ukraine needs to take the initiative on peace negotiations precisely because it can't end the war quickly. Russia is an autocracy, and Putin can pretty much what he wants. And if he's too stubborn, he can be removed, although he has made it rather hard. But Ukraine is a democracy, a slow-turning boat. Zelensky or his replacement in case of an assassination simply can't surrender to Russia to stop the war, even if he wanted to for some reason. The people need to be massaged to accept the idea. And that takes time.

And Ukraine can win and they are winning.

The "counter-offensive" fizzled to local tactical fighting. Ukraine's taking losses (although probably less than it did in the spring defending Bakhmut) and doesn't have infinite reserves. At some point they'll run out of steam. Russia isn't doing any better, but they have bigger reserves to draw from. At some point they'll have to cut some sort of compromise, no matter how unfair it is.

Zelensky is already saying that Ukraine will start negotiating when they reach Crimean border. It's kind of a compromise already.

Again. Absolute bullshit. End the war quickly? Not necessary. Bleed Russia dry. It’s already happening. You keep looking at this through the lens that mass equals force. It doesn’t. Russia doesn’t have the mass that it appears. They have far too many other security threats than Ukraine, particularly internal ones as was so aptly demonstrated a few weeks ago.

Nor can Putin do what he wants. His options are quite limited. He may appear strong on the outside, but he has been severely weakened by this war and every set back results in further alienation. As pointed out above, Russian forces in Bakhmut have become effectively trapped. Russia can’t supply them with food or ammunition. It has trouble supplying all of its front line troops with such. It requires numerous troops just to keep the front line troops in order. They basically steal their supplies. The entire apparatus is corrupt and the Russians aren’t fighting for the government.

the only thing Russia can do is bomb. They have a lot of artillery, and missiles to lob at them. but even these aren’t limitless and by several accounts they are depleting even their stocks of these.

They can manufacture more missiles so they will never actually run out, even if the stockpiles might already be mostly gone. And Shahed drones are dirt cheap, they'll never have shortage of those. Recently it seems Russia has been using Shaheds more than Kalibr or other missile types, which might mean they're saving the missiles for a bigger strike in the near future.

As for Bakhmut, the reports of it being surrounded are greatly exaggerated. A brief look at the map shows that Bakhmut itself isn't yet in any way surrounded. What Ukraine has been able to do is straighten the front line and threaten smaller settlements in the southern and northern flanks. But not actually take over those settlements. Progress seems stalled and it's unsure how far Ukraine can get.

In Zaprizhzhia frontline, Ukraine has lost several Bradleys (and maybe Leopards, not sure) trying to take a small portion of a trenchline near Robotyne. And even that might just be propaganda being sold as some sort of "victory", haven't seen it reflected in any maps yet. Fighting is fierce, but Ukraine isn't really making much progress due to minefields, and their own deficiencies in training and equipment. But let's say they got that one trench near that one village; Ukraine will still run out of Bradleys and Leopards before Russia runs out of trenches and villages.

Ukraine is in the best position it has been since the beginning of the war. And that's why I think it should start thinking about negotiations, because it's always better to negotiate from a position of power than weakness. The tables could very well turn when the ground turns to mud again.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Supposedly they are the most efficient way to clear trenches.

And mines.

No. Mines are too small, many will escape. The real mine-clearer is the daisy cutter--but it clears everything and Ukraine doesn't have enough control of the skies to use them.

I thought line charges were being used and were effective. Not my area though.

Line charges are for blasting a safe path through a minefield, they don't clear the field.