How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Loren Pechtel]

They can manufacture more missiles so they will never actually run out, even if the stockpiles might already be mostly gone. And Shahed drones are dirt cheap, they'll never have shortage of those. Recently it seems Russia has been using Shaheds more than Kalibr or other missile types, which might mean they're saving the missiles for a bigger strike in the near future.

All their advanced weapons require a lot of imported parts. Those supplies are now seriously limited.

As for Bakhmut, the reports of it being surrounded are greatly exaggerated. A brief look at the map shows that Bakhmut itself isn't yet in any way surrounded. What Ukraine has been able to do is straighten the front line and threaten smaller settlements in the southern and northern flanks. But not actually take over those settlements. Progress seems stalled and it's unsure how far Ukraine can get.

Ukraine has not claimed to have it surrounded. Rather, that they can hit anything going in or out. Russia has a bunch of troops basically cut off from supply. They either starve in place or run the gauntlet. Think of the infamous Highway of Death in Desert Storm. That's what happens when you have to run through territory the enemy can bring fire on.

 

[SLD]

Ukraine should start talking about peace negotiations. The war is at a stalemate, neither side seems to be able to make progress, and Russia certainly won't make an initiative. But time isn't on Ukraine's side. They should deal when they're on top. Or at least try to steer the war into a direction that they can't win all their land back.

More critical than just acres is that Ukraine gets a permanent border, no matter where it is. Not a frozen conflict where neither side acknowledges the other. Another key part is that there are security guarantees from NATO that make it impossible for Russia to attack again.

Bullshit. Why should Russian aggression be rewarded at all? They agreed to respect Ukrianian boundaries decades ago. Russia can end this war easily. Turn around and go home - even Crimea.

Ukraine needs to take the initiative on peace negotiations precisely because it can't end the war quickly. Russia is an autocracy, and Putin can pretty much what he wants. And if he's too stubborn, he can be removed, although he has made it rather hard. But Ukraine is a democracy, a slow-turning boat. Zelensky or his replacement in case of an assassination simply can't surrender to Russia to stop the war, even if he wanted to for some reason. The people need to be massaged to accept the idea. And that takes time.

And Ukraine can win and they are winning.

The "counter-offensive" fizzled to local tactical fighting. Ukraine's taking losses (although probably less than it did in the spring defending Bakhmut) and doesn't have infinite reserves. At some point they'll run out of steam. Russia isn't doing any better, but they have bigger reserves to draw from. At some point they'll have to cut some sort of compromise, no matter how unfair it is.

Zelensky is already saying that Ukraine will start negotiating when they reach Crimean border. It's kind of a compromise already.

Again. Absolute bullshit. End the war quickly? Not necessary. Bleed Russia dry. It’s already happening. You keep looking at this through the lens that mass equals force. It doesn’t. Russia doesn’t have the mass that it appears. They have far too many other security threats than Ukraine, particularly internal ones as was so aptly demonstrated a few weeks ago.

Nor can Putin do what he wants. His options are quite limited. He may appear strong on the outside, but he has been severely weakened by this war and every set back results in further alienation. As pointed out above, Russian forces in Bakhmut have become effectively trapped. Russia can’t supply them with food or ammunition. It has trouble supplying all of its front line troops with such. It requires numerous troops just to keep the front line troops in order. They basically steal their supplies. The entire apparatus is corrupt and the Russians aren’t fighting for the government.

the only thing Russia can do is bomb. They have a lot of artillery, and missiles to lob at them. but even these aren’t limitless and by several accounts they are depleting even their stocks of these.

They can manufacture more missiles so they will never actually run out, even if the stockpiles might already be mostly gone. And Shahed drones are dirt cheap, they'll never have shortage of those. Recently it seems Russia has been using Shaheds more than Kalibr or other missile types, which might mean they're saving the missiles for a bigger strike in the near future.

As for Bakhmut, the reports of it being surrounded are greatly exaggerated. A brief look at the map shows that Bakhmut itself isn't yet in any way surrounded. What Ukraine has been able to do is straighten the front line and threaten smaller settlements in the southern and northern flanks. But not actually take over those settlements. Progress seems stalled and it's unsure how far Ukraine can get.

In Zaprizhzhia frontline, Ukraine has lost several Bradleys (and maybe Leopards, not sure) trying to take a small portion of a trenchline near Robotyne. And even that might just be propaganda being sold as some sort of "victory", haven't seen it reflected in any maps yet. Fighting is fierce, but Ukraine isn't really making much progress due to minefields, and their own deficiencies in training and equipment. But let's say they got that one trench near that one village; Ukraine will still run out of Bradleys and Leopards before Russia runs out of trenches and villages.

Ukraine is in the best position it has been since the beginning of the war. And that's why I think it should start thinking about negotiations, because it's always better to negotiate from a position of power than weakness. The tables could very well turn when the ground turns to mud again.

They don’t have to totally surround Bakhmut. They just have to be able to hit their supply lines and prevent or at least seriously degrade their ability for resupply to destroy their units.

I agree that they need more western tanks and other vehicles. Far more! But defensive structures such as Russia has constructed are not invulnerable fortresses. Indeed it was one of the follies of both Allies and Germany in WWII. The Maginot line, Normandy beachheads, and others failed to effectively stop offensive forces. They slowed things down, but ultimately fixed fortifications are a loser’s strategy. Drones are not proving to be a massive game changer for Russia. Most are shot down or fail to reach their intended targets. They arent using them effectively.

I do agree though that Ukraine lacks sufficient training and many of its senior leadership is still stuck in a Soviet model that they learned. They lack a strong cadre of senior NCO‘s. They’re too centralized, and don’t do well with combined arms approaches. Western training is focusing on those issues and the Ukrainians are slowly learning the need for these. But it’s hard to change on the fly like this.

Still, it’s not necessary for them to achieve some massive breakthrough. They just need to kill more Russians. Russia cannot afford to put much more in the frontline. Putin has to be concern3d about internal security, and the security if his frontline troops. The comments made by general Popov are extremely telling. They feel abandoned by their leadership. They will not fight forever like that. They will either turn on their masters, surrender, or just desert eventually. Ukraine just has to keep up the pressure. Every dead Russian is another dagger at Putin. Every wounded Russian who returns home is another demoralized soldier who will spread the disease to others. Grand victories are great. But they aren’t necessary.

Russia must lose. The benefits to seeing them utterly defeated are judged. Autocrats everywhere will take notice. China will be isolated. It won’t dare attack Taiwan. Iran would be deterred, especially since they can’t rely in their people. We could totally remake the world. Democratic institutions would be seen as victorious.

And this can happen if only we would give the Ukrainians far more. We have given them paltry amounts Of stuff and they’ve done wonders with it. But we also need to do a better job training them. That’s the tough part. you can’t create senior nco‘s overnight.

 

[SLD]

Supposedly they are the most efficient way to clear trenches.

And mines.

No. Mines are too small, many will escape. The real mine-clearer is the daisy cutter--but it clears everything and Ukraine doesn't have enough control of the skies to use them.

I thought line charges were being used and were effective. Not my area though.

Line charges are for blasting a safe path through a minefield, they don't clear the field.

But isn’t that all they need to do?

 

[Jayjay]

They can manufacture more missiles so they will never actually run out, even if the stockpiles might already be mostly gone. And Shahed drones are dirt cheap, they'll never have shortage of those. Recently it seems Russia has been using Shaheds more than Kalibr or other missile types, which might mean they're saving the missiles for a bigger strike in the near future.

All their advanced weapons require a lot of imported parts. Those supplies are now seriously limited.

Sanctions can be circumvented. What they can't source to China, they can probably smuggle through third countries. Sure, it limits the production somewhat, but doesn't block it completely.

As for Bakhmut, the reports of it being surrounded are greatly exaggerated. A brief look at the map shows that Bakhmut itself isn't yet in any way surrounded. What Ukraine has been able to do is straighten the front line and threaten smaller settlements in the southern and northern flanks. But not actually take over those settlements. Progress seems stalled and it's unsure how far Ukraine can get.

Ukraine has not claimed to have it surrounded. Rather, that they can hit anything going in or out. Russia has a bunch of troops basically cut off from supply. They either starve in place or run the gauntlet. Think of the infamous Highway of Death in Desert Storm. That's what happens when you have to run through territory the enemy can bring fire on.

Ukraine's defense minstry has said they have "fire control" over all GLOCs to Bakhmut. But that's highly doubtful. There are many routes to the city, and they're not flanked from either side. Basically Ukraine can fire on the roads over the city. But they don't necessarily have eyes on the targets, because Russia will most definitely have jamming devices and will shoot down any UAVs they can spot. I don't think Ukraine really has fire control over anything but the city itself, and maybe the neighboring settlements.

Compare that to the situation last winter when Ukraine was trying to defend Bakhmut. Russia was trying a pincer movement from north and south, and had basically cut off everything but unpaved dirt roads, and Ukraine was still able to supply their troops in the city.

(In the map, blue and green areas are liberated territory, i.e. the maximum extent where Russia was last spring. Blue is territory gained in the last two weeks.)

 

[TV and credit cards]

Ukraine Is Winning The Artillery War—By Destroying Four Russian Howitzers for Every Howitzer It Loses

Seventeen months into Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, Ukrainian forces are winning a key battle—the counterbattery battle.

www.forbes.com

Why the Ukrainians gradually are winning the counterbattery fight should be obvious. Huge consignments of Western-made systems—which often are more reliable, more accurate and farther-firing than Soviet-style systems are—radically have improved Ukraine’s 13 artillery and rocket brigades.

Perhaps most importantly, the Ukrainians have received from Germany, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States scores of counterbattery radars that spot incoming artillery shells and rockets, pinpoint the source and cue friendly howitzers and launchers to fire back.

The radars, working in conjunction with small drones, make it very dangerous for Russian gunners to do their work. They have to shoot then scoot—fast—to have any chance of surviving Ukrainian counterbattery fire.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Ukraine Is Winning The Artillery War—By Destroying Four Russian Howitzers for Every Howitzer It Loses

Seventeen months into Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, Ukrainian forces are winning a key battle—the counterbattery battle.

www.forbes.com

Why the Ukrainians gradually are winning the counterbattery fight should be obvious. Huge consignments of Western-made systems—which often are more reliable, more accurate and farther-firing than Soviet-style systems are—radically have improved Ukraine’s 13 artillery and rocket brigades.

Perhaps most importantly, the Ukrainians have received from Germany, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States scores of counterbattery radars that spot incoming artillery shells and rockets, pinpoint the source and cue friendly howitzers and launchers to fire back.

The radars, working in conjunction with small drones, make it very dangerous for Russian gunners to do their work. They have to shoot then scoot—fast—to have any chance of surviving Ukrainian counterbattery fire.

Looks like this is what Popov was openly bitching about when he got relieved.

Top General's Dismissal Reveals New Crack in Russian Military Brass

Major General Ivan Popov said the military leadership was angered by his frank talk about challenges faced by his forces

www.voanews.com

Popov said the military leadership was angered by his frank talk about challenges faced by his forces, particularly the shortage of radars tracking enemy artillery, which resulted in massive Russian casualties.

 

[Tigers!]

Now we know. Nukes aside, Russia's vaunted military has been exposed as weak, corrupt, and ineffective. Thanks to the recent march of Wagner to the outskirts of Moscow, Putin's iron grip on power has been exposed as not so strong. Maybe a bronze grip. Putin's Ukraine gambit has thus far failed spectacularly.

Your imagery reminds me of the idol with feet of clay in the book of Daniel.

 

[Jayjay]

Popov said the military leadership was angered by his frank talk about challenges faced by his forces, particularly the shortage of radars tracking enemy artillery, which resulted in massive Russian casualties.

It's not a coincidence that Russia is having a "shortage" of radars; there have been quite a few videos of Ukraine destroying these radars floating around the internet. Clearly Ukraine has started to learn how to deal with Russia's artillery advantage, though it took a while.

In any smart military, Popov would be given a promotion or at least involved in fixing the problems. But in putinist Russia, he gets sacked and replaced with some yes-man. Good - for Ukraine.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Ukraine has not claimed to have it surrounded. Rather, that they can hit anything going in or out. Russia has a bunch of troops basically cut off from supply. They either starve in place or run the gauntlet. Think of the infamous Highway of Death in Desert Storm. That's what happens when you have to run through territory the enemy can bring fire on.

Ukraine's defense minstry has said they have "fire control" over all GLOCs to Bakhmut. But that's highly doubtful. There are many routes to the city, and they're not flanked from either side. Basically Ukraine can fire on the roads over the city. But they don't necessarily have eyes on the targets, because Russia will most definitely have jamming devices and will shoot down any UAVs they can spot. I don't think Ukraine really has fire control over anything but the city itself, and maybe the neighboring settlements.

Compare that to the situation last winter when Ukraine was trying to defend Bakhmut. Russia was trying a pincer movement from north and south, and had basically cut off everything but unpaved dirt roads, and Ukraine was still able to supply their troops in the city.

We provide the eyes in the sky. They're not going to be able to move enough supplies without us seeing it.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Ukraine Is Winning The Artillery War—By Destroying Four Russian Howitzers for Every Howitzer It Loses

Seventeen months into Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, Ukrainian forces are winning a key battle—the counterbattery battle.

www.forbes.com

Why the Ukrainians gradually are winning the counterbattery fight should be obvious. Huge consignments of Western-made systems—which often are more reliable, more accurate and farther-firing than Soviet-style systems are—radically have improved Ukraine’s 13 artillery and rocket brigades.

Perhaps most importantly, the Ukrainians have received from Germany, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States scores of counterbattery radars that spot incoming artillery shells and rockets, pinpoint the source and cue friendly howitzers and launchers to fire back.

The radars, working in conjunction with small drones, make it very dangerous for Russian gunners to do their work. They have to shoot then scoot—fast—to have any chance of surviving Ukrainian counterbattery fire.

Looks like this is what Popov was openly bitching about when he got relieved.

Top General's Dismissal Reveals New Crack in Russian Military Brass

Major General Ivan Popov said the military leadership was angered by his frank talk about challenges faced by his forces

www.voanews.com

Popov said the military leadership was angered by his frank talk about challenges faced by his forces, particularly the shortage of radars tracking enemy artillery, which resulted in massive Russian casualties.

Russia went into this with terrible doctrine. At first they weren't even able to fire on Ukranian guns that operated by themselves rather than as part of a battery. In the old days they needed to be grouped to share bearing and elevation data, but that's no longer the case.

 

[barbos]

Holly crap. You are still thinking that you are winning.

 

[barbos]

Ukraine should start talking about peace negotiations. The war is at a stalemate, neither side seems to be able to make progress, and Russia certainly won't make an initiative. But time isn't on Ukraine's side. They should deal when they're on top. Or at least try to steer the war into a direction that they can't win all their land back.

More critical than just acres is that Ukraine gets a permanent border, no matter where it is. Not a frozen conflict where neither side acknowledges the other. Another key part is that there are security guarantees from NATO that make it impossible for Russia to attack again.

Negotiations with Russia are strictly forbidden in Ukrainian Constitution
And no, it's not a stalemate. Russia has ability to run over Ukraine, it's just not economical. It makes more sense to simply wait for it to collapse. Leaks say that walking corpse in White House gave Elensky a deadline - end of the Year. By that time Ukraine will be using US Civil war weapons from amercian museums.

 

[barbos]

Ukraine Is Winning The Artillery War—By Destroying Four Russian Howitzers for Every Howitzer It Loses

Seventeen months into Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, Ukrainian forces are winning a key battle—the counterbattery battle.

www.forbes.com

Why the Ukrainians gradually are winning the counterbattery fight should be obvious. Huge consignments of Western-made systems—which often are more reliable, more accurate and farther-firing than Soviet-style systems are—radically have improved Ukraine’s 13 artillery and rocket brigades.

Perhaps most importantly, the Ukrainians have received from Germany, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States scores of counterbattery radars that spot incoming artillery shells and rockets, pinpoint the source and cue friendly howitzers and launchers to fire back.

The radars, working in conjunction with small drones, make it very dangerous for Russian gunners to do their work. They have to shoot then scoot—fast—to have any chance of surviving Ukrainian counterbattery fire.

Reminded me an anecdote about 80 year old guy going to a doctor and complaining about that he can't perform sexually:
Doctor, I can't do it anymore, while my 87 year old friend says he does that every day.
Doctor replies: And you tell him that you do it too.

Western Media lies. They have to, they have no choice, they are in the Bagdad Bob position.

 

[barbos]

I have a question for you, avid western media shit consumers. Did they show hilarious interview a War criminal Kissinger gave to the fake Zele?
Kissinger reaction to a Nord Stream sabotage question was priceless.

 

[barbos]

[video]

 

[barbos]

Ukraine now claims to have fire control over Bakhmut and all Russian GLOC’s going into the city. Russian milbloggers are expressing alarm that their forces are effectively surrounded. If so, this could be a huge breakthrough, although it will take some time to play out.

Where the fuck is Barbos? Haven’t seen him for months.

I have been drinking vodka and drafting surrender papers for Putin, after all, glorious ukrainian army has a fire control over Bakhmut.

 

[barbos]

Bullshit. Why should Russian aggression be rewarded at all? They agreed to respect Ukrianian boundaries decades ago. Russia can end this war easily. Turn around and go home - even Crimea.

Agreession is all yours and it should not be rewarded. Therefore Ukraine becomes Russia again. NATO goes back to 1991 state.
Scratch that, NATO should be disbanded and their leadership for the last 25 years tried and executed.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine has not claimed to have it surrounded. Rather, that they can hit anything going in or out. Russia has a bunch of troops basically cut off from supply. They either starve in place or run the gauntlet. Think of the infamous Highway of Death in Desert Storm. That's what happens when you have to run through territory the enemy can bring fire on.

Ukraine's defense minstry has said they have "fire control" over all GLOCs to Bakhmut. But that's highly doubtful. There are many routes to the city, and they're not flanked from either side. Basically Ukraine can fire on the roads over the city. But they don't necessarily have eyes on the targets, because Russia will most definitely have jamming devices and will shoot down any UAVs they can spot. I don't think Ukraine really has fire control over anything but the city itself, and maybe the neighboring settlements.

Compare that to the situation last winter when Ukraine was trying to defend Bakhmut. Russia was trying a pincer movement from north and south, and had basically cut off everything but unpaved dirt roads, and Ukraine was still able to supply their troops in the city.

We provide the eyes in the sky. They're not going to be able to move enough supplies without us seeing it.

Satellites can identify potential fixed targets, but they aren't useful in giving artillery "fire control" over logistic routes. First, because satellites aren't always over the area of interest. And second, because Ukraine isn't getting a real-time satellite data. The US intelligence probably vets the images and even if they pass it on to Ukraine, it's not available to artillery crews immediately for targeting purposes.

 

[barbos]

Compare that to the situation last winter when Ukraine was trying to defend Bakhmut. Russia was trying a pincer movement from north and south, and had basically cut off everything but unpaved dirt roads, and Ukraine was still able to supply their troops in the city.

Are you living in a cave with TV stuck on CNN channel?
Ukro-idiots were not able to supply their troops in the city. Russians let them do it. That was the whole damn plan.
Your ignorance is mind-boggling.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine should start talking about peace negotiations. The war is at a stalemate, neither side seems to be able to make progress, and Russia certainly won't make an initiative. But time isn't on Ukraine's side. They should deal when they're on top. Or at least try to steer the war into a direction that they can't win all their land back.

More critical than just acres is that Ukraine gets a permanent border, no matter where it is. Not a frozen conflict where neither side acknowledges the other. Another key part is that there are security guarantees from NATO that make it impossible for Russia to attack again.

Bullshit. Why should Russian aggression be rewarded at all? They agreed to respect Ukrianian boundaries decades ago. Russia can end this war easily. Turn around and go home - even Crimea.

Ukraine needs to take the initiative on peace negotiations precisely because it can't end the war quickly. Russia is an autocracy, and Putin can pretty much what he wants. And if he's too stubborn, he can be removed, although he has made it rather hard. But Ukraine is a democracy, a slow-turning boat. Zelensky or his replacement in case of an assassination simply can't surrender to Russia to stop the war, even if he wanted to for some reason. The people need to be massaged to accept the idea. And that takes time.

And Ukraine can win and they are winning.

The "counter-offensive" fizzled to local tactical fighting. Ukraine's taking losses (although probably less than it did in the spring defending Bakhmut) and doesn't have infinite reserves. At some point they'll run out of steam. Russia isn't doing any better, but they have bigger reserves to draw from. At some point they'll have to cut some sort of compromise, no matter how unfair it is.

Zelensky is already saying that Ukraine will start negotiating when they reach Crimean border. It's kind of a compromise already.

Again. Absolute bullshit. End the war quickly? Not necessary. Bleed Russia dry. It’s already happening. You keep looking at this through the lens that mass equals force. It doesn’t. Russia doesn’t have the mass that it appears. They have far too many other security threats than Ukraine, particularly internal ones as was so aptly demonstrated a few weeks ago.

Nor can Putin do what he wants. His options are quite limited. He may appear strong on the outside, but he has been severely weakened by this war and every set back results in further alienation. As pointed out above, Russian forces in Bakhmut have become effectively trapped. Russia can’t supply them with food or ammunition. It has trouble supplying all of its front line troops with such. It requires numerous troops just to keep the front line troops in order. They basically steal their supplies. The entire apparatus is corrupt and the Russians aren’t fighting for the government.

the only thing Russia can do is bomb. They have a lot of artillery, and missiles to lob at them. but even these aren’t limitless and by several accounts they are depleting even their stocks of these.

They can manufacture more missiles so they will never actually run out, even if the stockpiles might already be mostly gone. And Shahed drones are dirt cheap, they'll never have shortage of those. Recently it seems Russia has been using Shaheds more than Kalibr or other missile types, which might mean they're saving the missiles for a bigger strike in the near future.

As for Bakhmut, the reports of it being surrounded are greatly exaggerated. A brief look at the map shows that Bakhmut itself isn't yet in any way surrounded. What Ukraine has been able to do is straighten the front line and threaten smaller settlements in the southern and northern flanks. But not actually take over those settlements. Progress seems stalled and it's unsure how far Ukraine can get.

In Zaprizhzhia frontline, Ukraine has lost several Bradleys (and maybe Leopards, not sure) trying to take a small portion of a trenchline near Robotyne. And even that might just be propaganda being sold as some sort of "victory", haven't seen it reflected in any maps yet. Fighting is fierce, but Ukraine isn't really making much progress due to minefields, and their own deficiencies in training and equipment. But let's say they got that one trench near that one village; Ukraine will still run out of Bradleys and Leopards before Russia runs out of trenches and villages.

Ukraine is in the best position it has been since the beginning of the war. And that's why I think it should start thinking about negotiations, because it's always better to negotiate from a position of power than weakness. The tables could very well turn when the ground turns to mud again.

They don’t have to totally surround Bakhmut. They just have to be able to hit their supply lines and prevent or at least seriously degrade their ability for resupply to destroy their units.

But they can't do it. At least not yet. Ukraine is struggling to get to the smaller villages on southern and northern flanks of Bakhmut. The city itself is pretty much secure.

At first, Ukraine needs to at least take Klischiivka or the "ledge" NW of Bakhmut. And maybe soledar first, like Russia did. But Ukraine is nowhere near that yet. Not sure if they can do any of that by end of summer. I'd say that if Ukraine can take back Bakhmut, and that's a big if, it won't happen until 2024.

I agree that they need more western tanks and other vehicles. Far more! But defensive structures such as Russia has constructed are not invulnerable fortresses. Indeed it was one of the follies of both Allies and Germany in WWII. The Maginot line, Normandy beachheads, and others failed to effectively stop offensive forces. They slowed things down, but ultimately fixed fortifications are a loser’s strategy. Drones are not proving to be a massive game changer for Russia. Most are shot down or fail to reach their intended targets. They arent using them effectively.

A side note about drones... shahed's seem to be mostly used just against civilian targets, and on the surface it seems just counter-productive because it just pisses everyone off and makes them more likely to want to keep fighting. But swarming Kyiv or Odessa with cheap drones means Ukraine has to keep some of its anti-air assets in the cities, rather than the front lines. German Gepard AA guns for example would probably be ideal for shooting down Orlans and Lancets.

Still, it’s not necessary for them to achieve some massive breakthrough. They just need to kill more Russians. Russia cannot afford to put much more in the frontline. Putin has to be concern3d about internal security, and the security if his frontline troops. The comments made by general Popov are extremely telling. They feel abandoned by their leadership. They will not fight forever like that. They will either turn on their masters, surrender, or just desert eventually. Ukraine just has to keep up the pressure. Every dead Russian is another dagger at Putin. Every wounded Russian who returns home is another demoralized soldier who will spread the disease to others. Grand victories are great. But they aren’t necessary.

I agree that exerting maximum casualties, dead or wounded, will be necessary. But what I disagree about is the timeline. Ukraine is also suffering casualties and burning through its reserves. We just don't hear about it, or don't want to hear about it. Ukraine needs to be at least an order of magnitude more efficient to win the war of attrition.

Russia must lose. The benefits to seeing them utterly defeated are judged. Autocrats everywhere will take notice. China will be isolated. It won’t dare attack Taiwan. Iran would be deterred, especially since they can’t rely in their people. We could totally remake the world. Democratic institutions would be seen as victorious.

And this can happen if only we would give the Ukrainians far more. We have given them paltry amounts Of stuff and they’ve done wonders with it. But we also need to do a better job training them. That’s the tough part. you can’t create senior nco‘s overnight.

What should be done isn't the same what will be done. In 2024, when the presidential season starts heating up you'll have republican candidates trying to one-up each other who will fuck over Ukraine the most. And European countries aren't doing much better with their own extremist parties. In 2025, Ukraine will have its own election also.

With the current pace, there's not going to be a quick victory. And I doubt the current level can be maintained past 2024. I'm glad to see that Ukraine has finally been able to stabilize the frontline into a stalemate, but it's not going to get them their territory back.