How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Copernicus]

Centuries of anti-democratic, centralized, imperial rule and relative isolation has produced in Russia a baboon society where the biggest stick or the sharpest set of teeth rules the troop. This defines happiness for the masses in Russia.

There is hope:

https://www.science.org/content/article/kinder-gentler-baboon

Nasty, brutish, and short--Thomas Hobbes's famous description of life without government could as easily be applied to baboons. The primates are famous for their bad manners. However, a troop of baboons in Kenya has recently changed its ways. Researchers suggest that the relatively peaceable behavior is a type of culture that's passed on to newcomers to the troop.

Baboon culture is rife with violence. Males fight over females, food, resting spots, and sometimes for no apparent reason. The most serious altercations are usually between baboons of close rank; but baboons low on the totem pole get bullied all the time by higher-ups looking for an ego boost.

Now it appears that one troop has found a better way. Robert Sapolsky, a primatologist at Stanford University in California, observed a troop of savanna baboons, dubbed Forest Troop, from the late 1970s until 1986, when an outbreak of bovine tuberculosis killed off the most aggressive males in the group. After the deaths of so many of the members, Sapolsky abandoned his study and stayed away for 10 years.

(...)

In the 13 April PLoS Biology, Sapolsky and his wife and colleague Lisa Share describe the dramatic changes they found when they returned. Members sat closer together and groomed each other more. The dominance hierarchy remained--Number Two still scrapped with Numbers One and Three as in a normal troop--but the higher-ranking baboons didn't vent their anger on subordinates. And that's apparently improved life for lowlier baboons; they don't have the classic markers of chronic stress--such as elevated levels of stress hormones--found in their peers in other troops.

If baboons can change, so can Russia. All it takes is that the current cadre of assholes that run the society are killed off.

While it is true that human beings are evolved apes, I don't think that the death of the ones that are assholes is needed or even necessarily helpful for society to evolve. The French tried that with their famous guillotine, and they only succeeded in learning that the people manning the guillotines were also assholes. Sapolsky was studying a very small group of animals, not a big complex society such as a nation made up of diverse interests. People like Putin don't get where they are without the help of a lot of people, so whoever replaces him is just as likely to be another asshole. The only viable solution to bringing a country like Russia back from rogue status is not to bludgeon it until it stops behaving badly, but to give it incentives to behave well. So, in the end, the solution has to be diplomatic, not just military. We'll have to deal with whatever bunch of assholes succeed Putin, and we'll have to convince them that it is in their interest not to continue behaving like assholes. Obviously, that kind of strategy is not going to work with Putin, and it is really hard to do when we ourselves are run by our own set of assholes.

 

[bilby]

I don't think that the death of the ones that are assholes is needed or even necessarily helpful for society to evolve. The French tried that with their famous guillotine, and they only succeeded in learning that the people manning the guillotines were also assholes.

To be fair to the French, once they realised that, they did try to correct their error, by guillotining a whole bunch of the assholes who had been guillotining the first bunch of assholes.

They got into a bit of a feedback loop though. It's a wonder there are any Frenchmen left at all

 

[Elixir]

They got into a bit of a feedback loop though. It's a wonder there are any Frenchmen left at all

There aren’t any true Frenchmen, which is why the classic fallacy involves Scotsmen.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Why am I reminded of the Spaceballs scene, "Keep firing, Assholes!"

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

So popular cluster munitions are now being provided by the US. Damn cluster munitions.

 

[ZiprHead]

So popular cluster munitions are now being provided by the US. Damn cluster munitions.

The Russians have been using cluster munitions on civilian areas from the start. But they work quite well against an enemy dug in in trenches as the Russians are.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

So popular cluster munitions are now being provided by the US. Damn cluster munitions.

The Russians have been using cluster munitions on civilian areas from the start. But they work quite well against an enemy dug in in trenches as the Russians are.

"They did it too" is not a good reason for the US to engage in something the US considers to be a war crime.

 

[ZiprHead]

So popular cluster munitions are now being provided by the US. Damn cluster munitions.

The Russians have been using cluster munitions on civilian areas from the start. But they work quite well against an enemy dug in in trenches as the Russians are.

"They did it too" is not a good reason for the US to engage in something the US considers to be a war crime.

The US has not signed on to the accord declaring cluster munitions a war crime so they obviously don't consider it a war crime.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

In 2022, a reporter asked Jen Psaki about rumors that the Russians were using cluster munitions in Ukraine. "We have seen the reports," replied Psaki on February 28, 2022. "If that were true, it would potentially be a war crime."

The United Nations Convention of Cluster Munitions, which was adopted in 2008 and went into force in 2010, "prohibits all use, production, transfer and stockpiling of cluster munitions." Nearly 125 nations have ratified and signed onto the convention. Russia and the United States are not among them, but that does not change the reality that cluster bombs have long been associated with war crimes.

 Convention on Cluster Munitions

Congratulations, we are now bragging that we are as civilized as Russia.

 

[Politesse]

So popular cluster munitions are now being provided by the US. Damn cluster munitions.

The Russians have been using cluster munitions on civilian areas from the start. But they work quite well against an enemy dug in in trenches as the Russians are.

"They did it too" is not a good reason for the US to engage in something the US considers to be a war crime.

Only when other parties are doing it. We manufacture them, after all. Not the only parties that do, of course, but American munitions certainly do their part to keep the juvenile population of the world down.

That panicked screaming is the sound of money, I'm told.

 

[Politesse]

In 2022, a reporter asked Jen Psaki about rumors that the Russians were using cluster munitions in Ukraine. "We have seen the reports," replied Psaki on February 28, 2022. "If that were true, it would potentially be a war crime."

The United Nations Convention of Cluster Munitions, which was adopted in 2008 and went into force in 2010, "prohibits all use, production, transfer and stockpiling of cluster munitions." Nearly 125 nations have ratified and signed onto the convention. Russia and the United States are not among them, but that does not change the reality that cluster bombs have long been associated with war crimes.

 Convention on Cluster Munitions

Congratulations, we are now bragging that we are as civilized as Russia.

We very pointedly did not sign that resolution, and for obvious reasons. You think the executive branch is going to call up Orbital and tell them they need to change next season's product line up because the UN said they had to?

The real cowards are countries like the UK, France, and Canada, which signed the convention but with the full knowledge that their American buddies would surely continue making them and using them in any conflict their country was likely to be involved in. Such a strong moral stance, eh?

 

[Harry Bosch]

So popular cluster munitions are now being provided by the US. Damn cluster munitions.

The Russians have been using cluster munitions on civilian areas from the start. But they work quite well against an enemy dug in in trenches as the Russians are.

"They did it too" is not a good reason for the US to engage in something the US considers to be a war crime.

Only when other parties are doing it. We manufacture them, after all. Not the only parties that do, of course, but American munitions certainly do their part to keep the juvenile population of the world down.

That panicked screaming is the sound of money, I'm told.

I don’t like the decision, but I understand the necessity. Ask yourself this, if the Russians invading the US; were occupying Oregon and Washington, had killed and raped civilians, had kidnapped thousands of children; then were amassing hundreds of thousands of troops
to invade California, and we were low on ammunition, would you approve dropping cluster bombs to stop the immediate threat? I would say Fuck Yea!

 

[Politesse]

So popular cluster munitions are now being provided by the US. Damn cluster munitions.

The Russians have been using cluster munitions on civilian areas from the start. But they work quite well against an enemy dug in in trenches as the Russians are.

"They did it too" is not a good reason for the US to engage in something the US considers to be a war crime.

Only when other parties are doing it. We manufacture them, after all. Not the only parties that do, of course, but American munitions certainly do their part to keep the juvenile population of the world down.

That panicked screaming is the sound of money, I'm told.

I don’t like the decision, but I understand the necessity. Ask yourself this, if the Russians invading the US; were occupying Oregon and Washington, had killed and raped civilians, had kidnapped thousands of children; then were amassing hundreds of thousands of troops
to invade California, and we were low on ammunition, would you approve dropping cluster bombs to stop the immediate threat? I would say Fuck Yea!

Of course I wouldn't. I live here. Do you understand what these devices do? They shouldn't even exist.

 

[Jayjay]

Giving cluster weapons is a sign of weakness. If we could give enough artillery rounds, Ukraine wouldn't need cluster munitions to make up for the shortfall.

Ukraine is saying that they will start using them in the next few days. Not sure if they will make such a big difference anyway.

 

[zorq]

While I acknowledge the unfortunate collateral damage that these weapons can cause, I just want to note that cluster bombs aren't even new to this conflict. Russia has been using them extensively in the field and in urban areas, and even Ukraine has already been using the ones they got from Turkey. Cluster munitions are used because they work. There is no point in pulling your punches when a superior enemy has been crowing for your genocide. Fuck Russia.

 

[Patooka]

While I acknowledge the unfortunate collateral damage that these weapons can cause, I just want to note that cluster bombs aren't even new to this conflict. Russia has been using them extensively in the field and in urban areas, and even Ukraine has already been using the ones they got from Turkey. Cluster munitions are used because they work. There is no point in pulling your punches when a superior enemy has been crowing for your genocide. Fuck Russia.

Pretty much. Also context matters. Ukraine targets trenches and military fortifications. Russia targets hospitals with cluster munitions. There is a slight difference.

 

[Politesse]

While I acknowledge the unfortunate collateral damage that these weapons can cause, I just want to note that cluster bombs aren't even new to this conflict. Russia has been using them extensively in the field and in urban areas, and even Ukraine has already been using the ones they got from Turkey.

Yes, we all know this.

Cluster munitions are used because they work.

No, they don't. They are notoriously unreliable, that's a major part of the problem. They turn every war into a thirty year's war. Russia is losing them because they are losing. We are using them to save money.

When a civilian kid gets blown up, it matters to me whether it was me that killed them, as opposed to the enemy. It matters to me whether it was my vote and my money that funded the killing. It does not make any sense to me to say "Well, I saw some other guy killing kids, so I had to also". No, you didn't.

Fuck Russia.

We aren't seeding Russia with these munitions, we're planting them in Ukraine. And I would deplore this attitude anyway. When the weapons you use are designed to kill innocent civilians, it doesn't fucking matter how evil you think their president is. You have no grounds to call anyone evil when your own policy is war without limit or discretion.

 

[Politesse]

There is a slight difference.

Why should anyone care whether there is a "slight difference" in how team A commits war crimes versus team B?

I think some of the people here are still very confused as to what cluster munitions are, and why they have been condemned by all but the most militant nations. They aren't just "big bombs", they are vicious and indiscriminate weapons whose intended function and failure rate make them more of a liability to our allies than to our foes.

 

[ZiprHead]

While I acknowledge the unfortunate collateral damage that these weapons can cause, I just want to note that cluster bombs aren't even new to this conflict. Russia has been using them extensively in the field and in urban areas, and even Ukraine has already been using the ones they got from Turkey.

Yes, we all know this.

Cluster munitions are used because they work.

No, they don't. They are notoriously unreliable, that's a major part of the problem. They turn every war into a thirty year's war. Russia is losing them because they are losing. We are using them to save money.

US cluster bombs are said to have a 2% failure rate. I don't think Russians can say the same.

When a civilian kid gets blown up, it matters to me whether it was me that killed them, as opposed to the enemy. It matters to me whether it was my vote and my money that funded the killing. It does not make any sense to me to say "Well, I saw some other guy killing kids, so I had to also". No, you didn't.

Russia is targeting and killing civilians, including children, on a daily basis. If these bombs can significantly drive the Russians out of their trenches and drive them further back to their own soil, significant numbers of civilians lives can be spared.

Fuck Russia.

We aren't seeding Russia with these munitions, we're planting them in Ukraine. And I would deplore this attitude anyway. When the weapons you use are designed to kill innocent civilians, it doesn't fucking matter how evil you think their president is. You have no grounds to call anyone evil when your own policy is war without limit or discretion.

They are not "designed" to be used on civilians. I get your sentiment but every day delayed in ending this war means many more civilians die.

When this war is over there will have to be a massive clean up of unexploded ordnance, all kinds, not just cluster bombs. All bombs have a failure rate. Not to mention the thousands of land mines Russia is placing all over the place.

 

[Politesse]

So....

"but think how bad the really bad people are"

and

"well they did it first"

are the only arguments that justify this action?