How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[steve_bank]

Ukrainian forces pushing through Robotyne

Some selective reporting, eh?
You were supposed to get to Crimea border in 3 weeks (just ask Admiral Nuland), it's been 3 months and you occupied couple of villages in the gray zone ..... temporary. And lost 40 thousands.

Hmmm...Russian troops were supposed to occupy Kyiv in 3 days, what happened?

Massive tank losses, massive causalities. It was a Russian rout not a retreat. Tanks, vehicles, and weapons were abandoned as Russian troops fled.

You are funny guy.

Vlad The Incompetent is getting rid of people avoiding taking blame for the failures.

He managed to put off anarmed insurrection that would have had Wagner Group in Moskow.

Barbos, wake up and smell the borscht.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Ukrainian forces pushing through Robotyne

Some selective reporting, eh?
You were supposed to get to Crimea border in 3 weeks (just ask Admiral Nuland), it's been 3 months and you occupied couple of villages in the gray zone ..... temporary. And lost 40 thousands.

What you were suppose to take away from that is that the M14 supply route is nearly within range. This sounds like a big deal to me so I thought it worth mentioning.
The CEPA article does a good job spelling out just how much farther Ukrainian forces need to drive to get this critical supply route within range.
And as I referenced, Ukrainian advances may pick up now that the front lines have been broken.
Ukrainian front line commander agrees.

Ukraine will speed up advance on southern front -commander

Ukrainian forces believe they have broken through the most difficult line of Russian defences in the south and will now be able to advance more quickly, a commander fighting in the south told Reuters.

www.reuters.com

But to your point: War is messy. Things don't go according to plan. Soldiers can train and train and train using real equipment but when they have to go out and do the job in that same equipment, somehow it gets more real, frightening and confusing. So three weeks does turn into three months turns into six months turns into a lost generation of young men on both sides all because of one fucking asshole.

 

[scombrid]

It's not one fucking asshole. It is asshole plus enablers and supporters. No different than Trump. But for McConnell, Barr, Heritage Foundation, etc... Trump would have been dealt with a long time ago but the GOP liked that he signed their McConnell/Ryan tax cut, that he appointed their shills to fuck up all of the executive bodies like EPA and NOAA. They loved him appointing their hand picked judges... A lot of oligarchs in Russia were fine with Putin since he supported their kleptocracy.

Here in Florida people rant about DeSantis. He signed a law that went into effect on July 1 that bans state agencies from requiring post graduate degrees for scientific positions. But "signed" is the key part for that stupid shit. He has a whole legislature handing him every dumb fucking thing he signs.

 

[lpetrich]

About the reported death of Wagner group commander Yevgeny Prigozhin in an airplane crash, there is a disappointing shortage of followup.

If YP did not die in it, he could show up alive and announce that reports of his death are rather exaggerated.

Mark Twain’s Quote About His Own Death Is Greatly Exaggerated
What Mark Twain himself said about reports of his death:

Mark Twain was undecided whether to be more amused or annoyed when a Journal representative informed him today of the report in New York that he was dying in poverty in London ... The great humorist, while not perhaps very robust, is in the best of health. He said: ‘I can understand perfectly how the report of my illness got about, I have even heard on good authority that I was dead. James Ross Clemens, a cousin of mine, was seriously ill two or three weeks ago in London, but is well now. The report of my illness grew out of his illness. The report of my death was an exaggeration.’

Often condensed to "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."

If he did die in the crash, then some investigator ought to have discovered his body.

Bodies and flight recorders recovered at Wagner boss Prigozhin's jet crash site - BBC News - "And despite the jet's manifest, Mr Peskov refused to be drawn on whether the Kremlin had confirmation that Prigozhin was definitely on board the downed plane."

Bomb likely the cause of explosion that downed Wagner leader Prigozhin's plane, US officials say - ABC News - "Prigozhin was listed as a passenger on a plane that went down on Wednesday."

 

[lpetrich]

Vivek Ramaswamy calls to disrupt China-Russia alliance, says it would be like splitting Germany and Japan | Fox News

Vivek Ramaswamy said he would ban U.S. firms from doing business in China until the CCP reforms the country

...
Dividing the budding alliance would arguably conquer China's ability to become top global superpower and stymie Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Ramaswamy told "America Reports." In addition, the pharmaceutical entrepreneur said, he would ban U.S. companies from doing business with China until it halts its overall aggression, and stops stealing intellectual property or using its companies as "geopolitical pawns."

...
When questioned on why he would consider offering Putin concessions involving Ukraine, Ramaswamy disagreed it was an act of channeling former United Kingdom Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain – famous for appeasing Hitler in hopes of averting World War II.

That Neville Chamberlain comparison is what I first thought. VR himself says that it's more like splitting up Germany and Japan back then.

He said such a move would, despite giving Russia some concessions, transform the global order from bilateral to trilateral – leaving no firm alliances between the three major nuclear powers, U.S., Russia and China.

Pure wishful thinking. Russia will more likely take over its parts of Ukraine and continue cooperation with China.

As for allowing Putin to potentially take over the Donbass region of Ukraine or some other concession, Ramaswamy said any overture would be backed up by firm agreements to halt military exercises with China and other things the Russian leade wants.

"If he reneges, then we go back on the things that we said we would agree to give him, which is what we're saying is no Ukraine admission to NATO, freeze the current lines of control. That's a Korean War-style armistice agreement," he said.

"But if Putin reneges on that now, we're talking about a maximum pressure campaign in terms of economic sanctions."

Dream on.

 

[lpetrich]

Vivek Ramaswamy Wants to Give Putin Whatever He Wants in Ukraine | The New Republic

“Our goal should not be for Putin to lose,” the Republican candidate boldly claimed.

Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has a reckless plan for achieving U.S. global dominance: giving away other countries’ territory.

...
“I would freeze the current lines of control, and that would leave parts of the Donbas region with Russia,” Ramaswamy explained. “I would also further make a commitment that NATO will not admit Ukraine to NATO. But there are even greater wins that I will get for the United States.”

And he insists that this is not a Neville Chamberlain sort of plan.

 

[TomC]

“I would freeze the current lines of control, and that would leave parts of the Donbas region with Russia,” Ramaswamy explained. “I would also further make a commitment that NATO will not admit Ukraine to NATO."
He cannot freeze the current lines of control unless he's planning to put U.S. forces in Ukraine to enforce that.
Against Russia.

He cannot commit to keeping Ukraine out of NATO unless he plans to take over NATO.
Tom

 

[bilby]

Freezing the current lines of control is always a popular solution, amongst supporters of the side currently being pushed back.

Russia is losing ground. Why would Ukraine want to cede to them all the stolen ground that they occupy today, when they will clearly occupy less stolen ground tomorrow, or next week, or next month?

A ceasefire requires the agreement of both sides.

 

[steve_bank]

“I would freeze the current lines of control, and that would leave parts of the Donbas region with Russia,” Ramaswamy explained. “I would also further make a commitment that NATO will not admit Ukraine to NATO."
He cannot freeze the current lines of control unless he's planning to put U.S. forces in Ukraine to enforce that.
Against Russia.

He cannot commit to keeping Ukraine out of NATO unless he plans to take over NATO.
Tom

The problem with that is Russia aka Putin will not keep to any agreements. He tore up the Budapest Memrandum when he took Crimea.

I doubt Putin can admit not achieving control of Ukraine and maintain power. There is lkely dissent in the militray. That would bee seen as a betrayal.

In the long run pece will be mantned if and when Ukrine is in NATO.

Had Ukraine been admitted into NATO as it was promised when forming econmic ties with Europe instead of the Russian Federation the invasion would never have happened.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

What you were suppose to take away from that is that the M14 supply route is nearly within range. This sounds like a big deal to me so I thought it worth mentioning.
The CEPA article does a good job spelling out just how much farther Ukrainian forces need to drive to get this critical supply route within range.
And as I referenced, Ukrainian advances may pick up now that the front lines have been broken.
Ukrainian front line commander agrees.

Exactly. Fundamentally, Ukraine has been targeting logistics all along. Get the road, everything beyond that point soon becomes impotent. Seizing the supply line is about the most effective military move there is. And note that if they cut the supply line that means most of the forces currently securing that part of the border don't need to be there anymore and are free to do something else.

 

[barbos]

What you were suppose to take away from that is that the M14 supply route is nearly within range

You were supposed to get to Crimea border in 3 weeks (just ask Admiral Nuland), it's been 3 months and you occupied couple of villages in the gray zone ..... temporary. And lost 40 thousands.

NATO have not moved at all, just look at the freaking map.

 

[barbos]

Had Ukraine been admitted into NATO as it was promised when forming econmic ties with Europe instead of the Russian Federation the invasion would never have happened.

Great Idea, just admit random countries into NATO. Hell, admit China, problem solved.

 

[SLD]

What you were suppose to take away from that is that the M14 supply route is nearly within range

You were supposed to get to Crimea border in 3 weeks (just ask Admiral Nuland), it's been 3 months and you occupied couple of villages in the gray zone ..... temporary. And lost 40 thousands.

NATO have not moved at all, just look at the freaking map.

Wow! For once you’re right. NATO hasn’t moved at all. Ukrainian forces on the other hand are moving through the Russian lines of defense in Zaporizhia. ISW reports that whole sale Russian units are refusing to fight. Russia is now trying to prosecute junior officers who have complained.

Seriously dude, what the fuck is wrong with your country? It is really fucked up.

 

[lpetrich]

WarFrontline on X: "Big progress today at Tokmak and Verbove front ..." / X

Big progress today at Tokmak and Verbove front

AFU has cleared and penetrated some of the heavily mined areas along Russia's main line of defense in this area. Key to this are reports from Ukrainian sources that they have taken control of one or more key GLOC(s) (ground lines of communication).

Ukraine is getting closer to Novoprokopivka.

Greyskull on X: "Pro ukr tg claims:
Small AFU advances nearly securing a key feature SE of Novoprokopivka.
Claims that the next defensive line has already been breaching and of fighting going on in Novoprokopivka (pic link)" / X

Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | on X: "ROBOTYNE AXIS /1600 UTC 26 AUG/ Ukraine reports advances S on T-04-08 HWY. Russian artillery fire missions indicate UKR forces in contact south of Ichenkove. UKR precision strike hits Russian HQ element at Novoprokopivka. [Note: New TACMAP projection]. (pic link)" / X

 

[bilby]

NATO have not moved at all, just look at the freaking map.

No shit. NATO have not moved from behind their own borders. They're not in Ukraine, they're not in Russia, they're still at home where they were the day Russia invaded Ukraine.

And got utterly humiliated.

 

[barbos]

have not moved from behind their own borders. They're not in Ukraine, they're not in Russia,

Well, NATO occupied Ukraine, then Russia "invaded" and moved NATO slightly. Since then vaunted NATO summer counteroffensive have been one giant fiasco.

 

[barbos]

Wow! For once you’re right. NATO hasn’t moved at all.

Yes, since the start of their summer counteroffensive.
NATO nazi forces have been resoundingly defeated in Ukraine

 

[bilby]

have not moved from behind their own borders. They're not in Ukraine, they're not in Russia,

Well, NATO occupied Ukraine, then Russia "invaded" and moved NATO slightly. Since then vaunted NATO summer counteroffensive have been one giant fiasco.

What is the weather like on your planet?

Back here on planet Earth, NATO has never occupied Ukraine.

 

[barbos]

Back here on planet Earth, NATO has never occupied Ukraine.

Burning NATO equipment says otherwise.

 

[bilby]

Back here on planet Earth, NATO has never occupied Ukraine.

Burning NATO equipment says otherwise.

I drive a Toyota. Does that say that Japan has occupied Australia?

Perhaps it's a part of WWII history that got covered up; A successful Japanese invasion and occupation of Australia would have been rather embarrassing to the Allies.