How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[TV and credit cards]

What you were suppose to take away from that is that the M14 supply route is nearly within range. This sounds like a big deal to me so I thought it worth mentioning.
The CEPA article does a good job spelling out just how much farther Ukrainian forces need to drive to get this critical supply route within range.
And as I referenced, Ukrainian advances may pick up now that the front lines have been broken.
Ukrainian front line commander agrees.

Exactly. Fundamentally, Ukraine has been targeting logistics all along. Get the road, everything beyond that point soon becomes impotent. Seizing the supply line is about the most effective military move there is. And note that if they cut the supply line that means most of the forces currently securing that part of the border don't need to be there anymore and are free to do something else.

Ukrainians had spread their forces too thin. Gen Mark Milley and Sir Tony Radakin convinced them to focus on punching a hole toward Tokmak.
From the Kyiv Post article I referenced:

The US for the past several weeks has urged the Ukrainians to mass their forces and concentrate in an area north of Tokmak in the south to push through the first line of Russian defenses, generally acknowledged as the toughest line to break.
While there are differing views within the US government, one official said that Washington has conveyed “serious frustration” with Ukraine’s strategy, particularly President Volodymyr Zelensky’s focus on Bakhmut, which some Ukrainian officers see as useful to build morale and create a buffer zone in the east.

This infatuation with Bakhmut has hopefully come to an end. This "morale" builder is more accurately described as a point of pride, pride that has been getting in the way of an objective, the M14 supply route. Further, Ukrainians fight like Russians, like Soviets concerning themselves with minimizing factions within the army, they tend to give equal amounts personnel and equipment across commands.
US doctrine is to maximize forces at a single front and provide the minimum to hold the line elsewhere.
This is what happens when politicians are too involved with the military, they allow other concerns to enter their decision-making process when it should be just the military command focused on the objective. Everything else is secondary.
So now it's can they get to Tokmak putting the M14 within range before the weather starts to slow everything down and what are Ukraine's reserve forces like?

 

[steve_bank]

Back here on planet Earth, NATO has never occupied Ukraine.

Burning NATO equipment says otherwise.

And what does the failure of Russia to conquer Ukraine and suffer heavy loses in pople and equipment?

The Russia militray has shown it itself to be largely a paper tiger, weak when it meets an armed and determined opponent. But then that is how it goes for bullies.

No match for NATO

I fid it hard to wish ill for somebody, even Trump. But maybe a Russian patriot will put a bullet in Putin's head and do the world a favor.

 

[Harry Bosch]

have not moved from behind their own borders. They're not in Ukraine, they're not in Russia,

Well, NATO occupied Ukraine, then Russia "invaded" and moved NATO slightly. Since then vaunted NATO summer counteroffensive have been one giant fiasco.

Incredible how much damage that Nato has done against the Russian imperialists in Ukraine. And yet, we haven't lost a single soldier there!

 

[Elixir]

have not moved from behind their own borders. They're not in Ukraine, they're not in Russia,

Well, NATO occupied Ukraine, then Russia "invaded" and moved NATO slightly. Since then vaunted NATO summer counteroffensive have been one giant fiasco.

Incredible how much damage that Nato has done against the Russian imperialists in Ukraine. And yet, we haven't lost a single soldier there!

Yup. I have to admire the intrepid quality of a Putinista who is convinced that "NATO" is a set of ultra-powerful, invisible forces operating against Russian interests even before Russians know what their interests are, and yet the Putinista remains remains convinced that Mother Russia vanquish those invisible forces by flexing the might of their oh-so-very-visible crappy machinery, poorly trained and unmotivated men, and corrupt, murderous leadership.
Yeah, believing in that - that's real heroism!

 

[steve_bank]

have not moved from behind their own borders. They're not in Ukraine, they're not in Russia,

Well, NATO occupied Ukraine, then Russia "invaded" and moved NATO slightly. Since then vaunted NATO summer counteroffensive have been one giant fiasco.

Incredible how much damage that Nato has done against the Russian imperialists in Ukraine. And yet, we haven't lost a single soldier there!

Yup. I have to admire the intrepid quality of a Putinista who is convinced that "NATO" is a set of ultra-powerful, invisible forces operating against Russian interests even before Russians know what their interests are, and yet the Putinista remains remains convinced that Mother Russia vanquish those invisible forces by flexing the might of their oh-so-very-visible crappy machinery, poorly trained and unmotivated men, and corrupt, murderous leadership.
Yeah, believing in that - that's real heroism!

I thought the NATO invisibility weapon was top secret. Now its out.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

have not moved from behind their own borders. They're not in Ukraine, they're not in Russia,

Well, NATO occupied Ukraine, then Russia "invaded" and moved NATO slightly. Since then vaunted NATO summer counteroffensive have been one giant fiasco.

Incredible how much damage that Nato has done against the Russian imperialists in Ukraine. And yet, we haven't lost a single soldier there!

Yup. I have to admire the intrepid quality of a Putinista who is convinced that "NATO" is a set of ultra-powerful, invisible forces operating against Russian interests even before Russians know what their interests are, and yet the Putinista remains remains convinced that Mother Russia vanquish those invisible forces by flexing the might of their oh-so-very-visible crappy machinery, poorly trained and unmotivated men, and corrupt, murderous leadership.
Yeah, believing in that - that's real heroism!

We should be pitying barbos and all his countrymen. If there were ever any heroes in Russia they are all dead or imprisoned or have left the country for a better life. What's left are those who are willing to live as prisoners. Call them happy slaves who obey their masters out of fear, not something we in the west experience. Is barbos a coward? I don't think so. Is he free to express himself? Absolutely not, unless he wants to join the ranks of dead and imprisoned heroes. Most of us would probably do exactly the same thing to save our skin if we were in his situation.

 

[Elixir]

Most of us would probably do exactly the same thing to save our skin if we were in his situation.

I’m probably not wise enough to survive in that situation. I’d be too tempted to say it like I saw it. Barbos is obviously adept at navigating that minefield.

 

[Copernicus]

The rhetorical ploy that barbos uses here is to claim that NATO has essentially "invaded" Ukraine by supplying it with military aid to resist Russian advances. Ukrainian soldiers are just proxies for NATO troops. It is equally true that the US "invaded" the Soviet Union during WWII by supplying it with weapons to resist German advances into its territory. That was back when the Red Army was essentially controlled by America. You can imagine how much that must have infuriated Hitler.

 

[Rhea]

Back here on planet Earth, NATO has never occupied Ukraine.

Burning NATO equipment says otherwise.

OMG!!! People! I just realized that Iran has invaded Russia! How did we miss this?????

 

[steve_bank]

Beware Barbos, NATO soldiers are all over Russia wearing invisibility cloaks.

The invasion is imminent.

 

[lpetrich]

“I would freeze the current lines of control, and that would leave parts of the Donbas region with Russia,” Ramaswamy explained. “I would also further make a commitment that NATO will not admit Ukraine to NATO."

I never thought I'd see the day when a Republican advocated a Neville Chamberlain position.

Back in 1938, Adolf Hitler demanded the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia, some bits of that nation that were inhabited by a lot of ethnic Germans. It was for protecting them from being beaten up by those nasty Czechs, or at least so the German news media claimed. Then UK Prime Minister NC brokered a deal where Germany would get that territory. NC then claimed that that this deal resulted in "peace for our time", misstated as "peace in our time".

Fast forward to the last few decades. Crimea and the eastern parts of Ukraine are inhabited by a lot of ethnic Russians, and Vladimir Putin has used the same excuse for taking them over: protecting ethnic Russians.

GOP no-shot candidate Vivek Ramaswamy channels his inner Neville Chamberlain

Vatnik Ramaswamy basically doing a Neville Chamberlain and advocating for appeasing Putin : TheMajorityReport

The GOP’s very own Neville Chamberlain unmasks himself | The Florida Squeeze
"Our goal should not be for Putin to lose"

This is unbelievable…
Can you imagine if a Democrat has said this during any war where a US ally for fighting for its survival? Or any GOPer in the pre-MAGA era for that matter?

The party of Ronald Reagan is indeed dead.

 

[lpetrich]

The Dnipro crossing is a microcosm of what Ukraine is hoping to do across the whole front

The Russians like static fighting. They prefer relatively slow movement and clear responsibilities for units. This is primarily due to not allowing significant initiative at lower ranks, standardized units, a push logistics system, and degraded transport options. They focus on grinding the opponent down with artillery pounding away before simple infantry rushes.

In contrast, the Ukrainians would prefer to make this fight more mobile and maneuver based. They are attempting to get Russian forces moving back and forth, both locally and across the entire front.

...
Over the past few weeks there has been a series of actions in the Kherson region with small Ukrainian units crossing the river at different points. The greater goal here is to threaten a larger crossing of Ukrainian forces to divert Russian units away from the Tokmak area. Ukraine can’t really brute force its way across without risking a significant loss of troops if the Russians defend with sufficient forces. But if the Russians don’t properly staff the area, Ukraine can cross in force. Ukraine’s supply funneled over the river will always limit their total amount of forces so there is a hard upper limit of what they can do. But the Russians also can’t ignore this area without endangering critical supply lines.

...
The basic movement has been Ukraine crossing the river to take and hold a part of Kozachi Laheri. As RFU points out, this crossing has forced a response by Russian leadership to move more troops and resources in. However, it appears those resources came from other parts of the river defense, and not from Crimea or Tokmak. In response, Ukraine attritted the moving reinforcements, held them in place for a bit and then retreated. While holding the Russians there, the Ukrainians shifted their offensive focus to the areas Russia pulled their resources from.

Then talking about Ukraine's four recent pushes into Russian-held territory, to Vasylivka, Robotyne, Urozhaine, and Bakhmut. Vasylivka was abandoned first, and the author thinks that Ukraine's Bakhmut push was a feint.

 

[lpetrich]

More Russian stuff blowing up, plus Russian commander deemed crazy for trying to save his troops

Today they took the company commander (call sign Kizlyar) from the guys who went to the islands.
They took him to the hospital to be evaluated for allegations that he got nervous or went crazy.
It is reported that the Brigade Command e is putting pressure on the doctors to do what they need (to support that diagnosis).
"This is how Russia plays the game. The commander saved the lives of his men in an impossible situation but his team went outside of the club and made it public. To cover up the real culprits, the commander will be found crazy and the official reports and the media will report it as so.
That is why the "2nd Army of the World" is the "2nd Army in Ukraine."

...
Russia will go to great lengths to not have to send young men from Moscow and St. Petersburg and instead send disposables (i.e. non-Russians) from wherever they can find them.

 

[bilby]

Back in 1938, Adolf Hitler demanded the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia, some bits of that nation that were inhabited by a lot of ethnic Germans. It was for protecting them from being beaten up by those nasty Czechs, or at least so the German news media claimed. Then UK Prime Minister NC brokered a deal where Germany would get that territory. NC then claimed that that this deal resulted in "peace for our time", misstated as "peace in our time".

As satirised by Viz Comics

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

$200 million Russian radar system destroyed by Ukraine.

.....
In August, the Defence Forces of the southern part of Ukraine destroyed a Russian mobile coastal radar station for over-the-horizon detection Predel-E, worth $200 million.

Source: Defence Forces of the South on Telegram

Quote: "Mobile coastal radar station of over-the-horizon detection with increased secrecy Predel-E – this is how ambitiously and pompously the Russians presented the novelty of their military-industrial complex to a narrow circle of specialists in June this year.
......

Slava Ukraine!

Ukrainian military destroy unique Russian radar station worth $200 million in Kherson Oblast

In August, the Defence Forces of the southern part of Ukraine destroyed a Russian mobile coastal radar station for over-the-horizon detection Predel-E, worth $200 million. Source: Defence Forces of the South on Telegram Quote: "Mobile coastal radar station of over-the-horizon detection with...

www.yahoo.com

 

[steve_bank]

And China claims it is the global defender of human rights.

Maybe Putin will declare the purchase of Alaska never happened and Alaska is really Russia,

Hitler used a false flag attack to justify invading Poland. Goebbels was making propaganda radio broadcasts right up until the end. Like Hitler Putin can do nothing but keep going until events catch up ioth him.

Could Putin and Jinping become dictators with a free press?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

News today is the Russian Dictator will not be attending the G20 summit in India. Apparently the Russian Dictator has a "busy schedule" murdering people. I understand, that kind of stuff takes a lot of time.

 

[lpetrich]

Russia says genetic tests confirm Prigozhin died in plane crash | Reuters

Russian investigators said on Sunday that genetic tests had confirmed that Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief of the Wagner mercenary group, was among the 10 people killed in a plane crash last week.

Russia's aviation agency had previously published the names of all 10 on board the private jet which crashed in the Tver region northwest of Moscow on Wednesday. They included Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, his right-hand man who helped found the Wagner group.

"As part of the investigation of the plane crash in the Tver region, molecular-genetic examinations have been completed," Russia's Investigative Committee said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app.

"According to their results, the identities of all 10 dead were established. They correspond to the list stated in the flight sheet," it said.

Russia's Prigozhin buried quietly in hometown of St Petersburg | Reuters

Overbearing in life but discreet in death, Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was buried quietly in a leafy cemetery on the outskirts of St Petersburg on Tuesday, six days after he was killed in an unexplained plane crash.

The funeral took place away from the glare of the media and in stark contrast to the brazen, self-publicising style with which Prigozhin had fanned his reputation, in Russia and far beyond, for ruthlessness and ambition.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

have not moved from behind their own borders. They're not in Ukraine, they're not in Russia,

Well, NATO occupied Ukraine, then Russia "invaded" and moved NATO slightly. Since then vaunted NATO summer counteroffensive have been one giant fiasco.

The only nations NATO has Moved into has been Finland and Sweden.

 

[ZiprHead]