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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

steve_bank said:
Finland and Sweden are now NATO members. The war has cost Russian casualties and money and is going on 17 months. Europe is getting off Russian energy, a major Russian export. The Russian economy has limited access to the global economy hurting the Russian people. Cutting off grain to areas of the word where it is critical has angered people. Finland restricts entry to Russians.
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You have said it million times. Most of what you said is patently FALSE.

Africa blames the west for the grain troubles.
Finland opened access to russian border tourists, last time I heard.
Russia is OK with Germany shooting themselves in the foot.
Global economy is mostly China now, Russia has full access to it.

Russia kinda lost access to Europe (except uranium). gas-oil is still being exported to EU.

The only problems Russia has is automotive suppliers in the west and airliners.
Chinese are helping with cars and airliners Russia gets help with western aircrafts all over the world and reviving their own planes.
These are all temporary problems which result in Russia being able to replace all that shit with domestic producers (globalization goes to hell)
That's it. Russia has complete food independence - a stark difference with the 90s. Russia makes italian cheese now.


You are not going to destroy Russia with sanctions, you will only make it stronger.
 
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steve_bank said:
Stalin justified control of Poland poswar WWII for some hostrical reason.
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Where did you get this shit?
Poland was not part of USSR. They were merely part of Warsaw Pact among other members.
Western Ukraine has been part of both Poland and Russian empire on and off.
Austria had it too. So Poland can't really claim it as purely polish.
When Hitler invaded Poland Stalin did take Western Ukraine and THERE WERE historical reasons to take that part and NOTHING MORE.
So he did. What are the historical reasons for US having Texas New Mexico and California?
So please, shut up these talks about historical reasons.


You know what else bad Stalin did? Do you? He tоок Abkhazia (part of Russian Empire and then Russian federation) and gave it to Georgia.
And now, you sit here and say that Abkhazia is part of Georgia. Are you a filthy stalinist?

Do you know how Ukraine got Crimea and Eastern Ukraine? Lenin and Khrushhev gave it to them. You are filthy communist, aren't you? :)

And you know what else? Stalin is still regarded as national hero in ..... your beloved democratic heaven named Georgia. Rationalize that! :)
 
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State Department is geographically retarded. In their attempts to surround Russia they wandered into ..... Kazakhstan.
A country which land-locked between Russia and (!!!) China plus few others "stans". These imbeciles thought they had a chance to open second front there.
 
And what happened to our only Finn JayJay?
Did he go to Russia to fill up his tank and got arrested by the Putin Regime?


So many questions.
 
🇺🇦Ukrainian Front on X: "⚡️The Armed Forces of 🇺🇦Ukraine ..." / X
⚡️The Armed Forces of 🇺🇦Ukraine are successfully advancing in the direction of Novoprokopivka on the southern front

This was stated by the spokesman of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Pavlo Kovalchuk. Thus, the Defense Forces of Ukraine continue to advance in the Melitopol direction and consolidate at the achieved boundaries.
Click to expand...
Now at the NW, NE, and E of Novoprokopivka, and aiming to encircle that town.

Also,
Emil Kastehelmi on X: "The situation in the Robotyne-Verbove area ..." / X
The situation in the Robotyne-Verbove area is developing in a positive direction for the Ukrainians. Ukraine has further penetrated the first Surovikin line near Verbove, now reaching the main trenchline.

Ukrainians have also overran Russian positions south of Robotyne. 1/

It seems the Ukrainians have established a more permanent foothold in the outskirts of Verbove, and it's not just recon operations.

However, this isn't a breakthrough yet - we haven't seen quick maneuvers or Ukrainian armored vehicles operating beyond the dragon's teeth. 2/

I'm actually somewhat surprised the Ukrainians have managed to capture the positions south of Robotyne. It's still a bit unclear which parts are they holding, but I presume the larger trench complex is still under Russian control. 3/

The Russian defence is likely experiencing difficulties. They haven't been able to push Ukrainians back anywhere in this sector.

The situation can be even worse for the Russians than shown here - the map is a conservative estimate based on geolocations and satellite imagery. 3/

The Ukrainian offensive has gained some momentum during the last weeks, and we excpect to see more.

Thanks to @moklasen and @EjShahid for the most recent geolocations.

Our team at @Black_BirdGroup will continue with daily map updates. 4/4
Click to expand...
The Ukrainian army is now NW of Verbove, close to the town's NW end.
 
lpetrich, you need to look at the map before expressing your optimism.
The reason why nazis went to Verbovo, is the the fact they failed at Rabotino. They realized that the word Rabotino is too tired they need to change it to something.
If you look at the map you will realize that at this rate they will get to Melitopol in the next century.

Here is a channel which explains this shit:
You're welcome.
 
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This Ukro-western propaganda lies you repost here serves Russian strategy well.
Russians do not want to go on the offence, they are perfectly OK with ukrainain army self-destructing trying stupidly to "liberate" "their" land.
But this is a secret, don't tell anyone.
 
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lpetrich said:
🇺🇦Ukrainian Front on X: "⚡️The Armed Forces of 🇺🇦Ukraine ..." / X
⚡️The Armed Forces of 🇺🇦Ukraine are successfully advancing in the direction of Novoprokopivka on the southern front

This was stated by the spokesman of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Pavlo Kovalchuk. Thus, the Defense Forces of Ukraine continue to advance in the Melitopol direction and consolidate at the achieved boundaries.
Click to expand...
Now at the NW, NE, and E of Novoprokopivka, and aiming to encircle that town.

Also,
Emil Kastehelmi on X: "The situation in the Robotyne-Verbove area ..." / X
The situation in the Robotyne-Verbove area is developing in a positive direction for the Ukrainians. Ukraine has further penetrated the first Surovikin line near Verbove, now reaching the main trenchline.

Ukrainians have also overran Russian positions south of Robotyne. 1/

It seems the Ukrainians have established a more permanent foothold in the outskirts of Verbove, and it's not just recon operations.

However, this isn't a breakthrough yet - we haven't seen quick maneuvers or Ukrainian armored vehicles operating beyond the dragon's teeth. 2/

I'm actually somewhat surprised the Ukrainians have managed to capture the positions south of Robotyne. It's still a bit unclear which parts are they holding, but I presume the larger trench complex is still under Russian control. 3/

The Russian defence is likely experiencing difficulties. They haven't been able to push Ukrainians back anywhere in this sector.

The situation can be even worse for the Russians than shown here - the map is a conservative estimate based on geolocations and satellite imagery. 3/

The Ukrainian offensive has gained some momentum during the last weeks, and we excpect to see more.

Thanks to @moklasen and @EjShahid for the most recent geolocations.

Our team at @Black_BirdGroup will continue with daily map updates. 4/4
Click to expand...
The Ukrainian army is now NW of Verbove, close to the town's NW end.
Click to expand...

The Robotyne breech is expanding and the drive toward Tokmak continues. Russian artillery can not adequately support their forces due to a shortage of ammunition, an inability to move ammunition, a loss of counter-battery radar, and barrel wear. In short, their artillery will struggle to slow Ukrainian advances in areas Russian soldiers have retreated from and Ukrainians are trying to occupy. This along with less densely populated minefields will make easier going of it for Ukrainian forces. Once Ukraine can adequately clear Russian defensive barriers for heavy equipment to move on Ukraine should start seeing more significant returns of their land.
 
TV and credit cards said:
Once Ukraine can adequately clear Russian defensive barriers for heavy equipment to move on Ukraine should start seeing more significant returns of their land.
Click to expand...
Admit it, you have no fucking clue?
Rabotnoe is a SECURITY zone. Once nazis occupy it they will be facing the ACTUAL defensive lines.
And nazis HAVE not occupied Rabotnoe yet. For some reason russian forces find it useful to hold parts of it.
 
TV and credit cards said:
lpetrich said:
🇺🇦Ukrainian Front on X: "⚡️The Armed Forces of 🇺🇦Ukraine ..." / X
⚡️The Armed Forces of 🇺🇦Ukraine are successfully advancing in the direction of Novoprokopivka on the southern front

This was stated by the spokesman of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Pavlo Kovalchuk. Thus, the Defense Forces of Ukraine continue to advance in the Melitopol direction and consolidate at the achieved boundaries.
Click to expand...
Now at the NW, NE, and E of Novoprokopivka, and aiming to encircle that town.

Also,
Emil Kastehelmi on X: "The situation in the Robotyne-Verbove area ..." / X
The situation in the Robotyne-Verbove area is developing in a positive direction for the Ukrainians. Ukraine has further penetrated the first Surovikin line near Verbove, now reaching the main trenchline.

Ukrainians have also overran Russian positions south of Robotyne. 1/

It seems the Ukrainians have established a more permanent foothold in the outskirts of Verbove, and it's not just recon operations.

However, this isn't a breakthrough yet - we haven't seen quick maneuvers or Ukrainian armored vehicles operating beyond the dragon's teeth. 2/

I'm actually somewhat surprised the Ukrainians have managed to capture the positions south of Robotyne. It's still a bit unclear which parts are they holding, but I presume the larger trench complex is still under Russian control. 3/

The Russian defence is likely experiencing difficulties. They haven't been able to push Ukrainians back anywhere in this sector.

The situation can be even worse for the Russians than shown here - the map is a conservative estimate based on geolocations and satellite imagery. 3/

The Ukrainian offensive has gained some momentum during the last weeks, and we excpect to see more.

Thanks to @moklasen and @EjShahid for the most recent geolocations.

Our team at @Black_BirdGroup will continue with daily map updates. 4/4
Click to expand...
The Ukrainian army is now NW of Verbove, close to the town's NW end.
Click to expand...

The Robotyne breech is expanding and the drive toward Tokmak continues. Russian artillery can not adequately support their forces due to a shortage of ammunition, an inability to move ammunition, a loss of counter-battery radar, and barrel wear. In short, their artillery will struggle to slow Ukrainian advances in areas Russian soldiers have retreated from and Ukrainians are trying to occupy. This along with less densely populated minefields will make easier going of it for Ukrainian forces. Once Ukraine can adequately clear Russian defensive barriers for heavy equipment to move on Ukraine should start seeing more significant returns of their land.
Click to expand...
You're just pulling shit out of your ass.
 
The Economist does a good piece on one now oft forgotten aspect of Ukraine. It's a corrupt mess of a nation. It's just as bad as Russia. Totally in the claws of the maffia. This was is well described as two networks of maffia organisations fighting eachother. These maffia networks are also transnational.

Now when the western nations prop up Ukraine, we need to be very careful so we don't make more of a mess than we'd get if we did nothing.

www.economist.com

Is Ukraine really interested in fighting corruption?

Volodymyr Zelensky removes his defence minister and goes after an oligarch
www.economist.com www.economist.com

We don't don't want a repeat of Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc etc. The cold war was full of these. The west props up a corrupt regime, and then when the war is won it instantly reverts to an out-of-control kleptocracy where the democrtic principals are a joke.

I have seen very little evidence that Ukraine winning the war against Russia will benefit the Ukranian people. I still think we should protect Ukraine from Russian aggression. But that's more a question of geo-politics and containing any aggressor. Rather than helping the Ukranians. What Ukraine needs is heavy reforms. It has historically worked out. Germany and Japan are two examples of corrupt messes that turned out swimingly well. But both of those had heavy handed reforms. I can't see that happening for Ukraine. This is an entrenched maffia. It's going to need more than sternly formulated EU letters to swing these guys around.
 
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