In recent years, Putin’s regime has escalated a hybrid war to cripple Moldova’s move toward Europe, using methods it inflicts on other ex-Soviet republics — especially Ukraine and Georgia — that have sought full independence from Russia. The Kremlin’s tools of influence vary, from control over Moldova’s gas supplies to the Russian Orthodox patriarch’s jurisdiction over the Moldovan Orthodox Church. Moscow’s tactics include:
A “frozen conflict.” Russia controls easternmost Moldova — the narrow eastern bank of the Dniester River, or Transnistria — as an insurgent, separatist entity that Moscow signals Moldova will not recover unless it accepts a Russian veto over its foreign and security policies. Corrupt oligarchs administer Transnistria’s government and dominate the economy under supervision by Russian intelligence services backed by Russian troops that have remained since the Soviet era.
Economic pain and paid protests. Moldova is one of Europe’s economically poorest countries, with at least a quarter of its work force performing or seeking work abroad in recent years. Russia, until last year Moldova’s sole supplier of gas, hiked prices and cut supplies, multiplying home heating and electricity costs four to seven times in 2022 and spiking inflation. The Kremlin selectively punishes Moldovans for defying its will; last year it banned imports of Moldovan farm produce for supposed insect infestations — except for crops from Transnistria and from Orhei, a district where the Russia-backed Shor Party holds local power. As Moscow deepens Moldovans’ pain, the Shor Party sponsors protests demanding President Sandu’s resignation — and, the Moldovan newspaper Ziarul Garda documented, has paid protesters in cash for participating.
Disinformation. Russia uses its state media, including television networks, plus social media and proxy groups such as the Shor Party, to mislead Moldovans with disinformation, say Moldova’s government, the independent local research organization, Watchdog, and the HybridCoE analysis center, run by EU and NATO states. Disinformation includes “creation and dissemination of fake news, and so-called deepfakes in particular,” such as a video engineered last October that purported to record President Sandu discussing with Ukraine’s prime minister a supposed Moldovan military mobilization against Russia, HybridCoE reported.
Strategic corruption. Varied sources have publicized Moscow’s remunerations or other support of Moldovan “oligarchs” and their political machines for advancing Kremlin aims. These include separate investigations by RISE Moldova, a nonprofit journalism project, and The Washington Post; a Moldovan corruption indictment against former President Igor Dodon; U.S. sanctions declarations against the Shor Party leader, Ilan Shor; and even infighting between Russian proxies that led oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc to broadcast a video of Dodon apparently discussing illegal funding he received from Russia.