How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[bilby]

a huge problem of NATO is that nothing is standardised.

NATO has spent 74 years standardising equipment and particularly ammunition.

NATO small-arms almost exclusively use standardised 5.56mm ammunition, with a small number of heavier weapons using 7.62mm ammunition instead.

I presume that Ukrainian small arms mostly use Russian ammunition standards, which could be a problem; But that's a problem of Russia and NATO having different standards, not one of NATO failing to standardise.

 

[bilby]

Why would either army have a shortage of food? Why would either army have a shortage of warm clothing?

Logistics.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Except, the Ukrainians were much better off. They have been recieving Canadian winter gear. And have better training. Winter is still unpleasant for all, but last winter proved deadly for Russian mobiks.

Recent reports are comin in Russia is having trouble getting enough gasoline to support their troops and getting gasoline to their troop. Not good in Winter.s

 

[Patooka]

a huge problem of NATO is that nothing is standardised.

NATO has spent 74 years standardising equipment and particularly ammunition.

NATO small-arms almost exclusively use standardised 5.56mm ammunition, with a small number of heavier weapons using 7.62mm ammunition instead.

I presume that Ukrainian small arms mostly use Russian ammunition standards, which could be a problem; But that's a problem of Russia and NATO having different standards, not one of NATO failing to standardise.

It's also worth pointing out Russia military is anything but standardised, with T-55s, T-72s and T-80s using different ammunition and even fuel (diesel for some, gasoline for others). And then there's mobiks using Mosins (7.62mm) and the VDV using AKMs (5.45mm). Neither side is ideal when it comes to logistics, but Russia is clearly more fucked. Fucked-er if you will. I have yet to hear of Ukraine abandoning their vehicles because they're out of fuel either.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Neither side is ideal when it comes to logistics, but Russia is clearly more fucked. Fucked-er if you will. I have yet to hear of Ukraine abandoning their vehicles because they're out of fuel either.

I think the only thing Barbos has been correct about in this thread is that western news reporting on the war is one sided. Any pro-Ukrainian report coming out of the war is uncritically published by the west. While any report making USSR... I mean Russia, looking bad is also uncritically published by the west. Western press is a fanclub for Zelensky. Both Russia and Ukraine are cranking out bullshit propaganda about the other. Anything else would be military malpractice.

I'm convinced Russia is doing a hell of a lot better than what our press is showing.

I think the catastrophic start of this war for Russia was because, following the grab of Crimea, NATO bolstered Ukraine's defences. And they were ready for Russia. I find that more believable than that Russia is a bunch of clowns.

 

[bilby]

I think the catastrophic start of this war for Russia was because, following the grab of Crimea, NATO bolstered Ukraine's defences. And they were ready for Russia. I find that more believable than that Russia is a bunch of clowns.

I think it's both.

Russian military might was expected to crush Ukraine in short order; It took a combination of rapid assistance from NATO, and massive incompetence from Russia, to prevent them from reaching Kyiv.

 

[Elixir]

At this point, Russia threatening to take Kyiv is about as credible as them threatening to take Washington DC.

I certainly hope not for Ukraine’s sake.
Pootey is in a dead heat tie with sleepy joe in most polls and leading by 9 points in one of them.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

If they surrender they will definitely lose Odessa, Harkov. If not they will lose Kiev.

Russia has made it clear their intent is genocide. To surrender is to die.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Russia has in effect admitted they're going to lose:

Russia appears ready to accept Crimea as Ukraine's—on one condition

"If you respect Ukraine's integrity so much, give Crimea back to us," Ukraine's Maria Drutska said after Sergei Lavrov's comments at the UN General Assembly.

www.newsweek.com

They're asking for a neutral Ukraine. (In other words, for time to rebuild and come back to try again later.) There's no way they would be doing that if they thought they could win.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Russia has in effect admitted they're going to lose:

Russia appears ready to accept Crimea as Ukraine's—on one condition

"If you respect Ukraine's integrity so much, give Crimea back to us," Ukraine's Maria Drutska said after Sergei Lavrov's comments at the UN General Assembly.

www.newsweek.com

They're asking for a neutral Ukraine. (In other words, for time to rebuild and come back to try again later.) There's no way they would be doing that if they thought they could win.

Or the state gangsters would rather just keep their stolen money. In the end it's all about personal gain. Ukraine contains great wealth but everything has a price and if the price is higher than the expected gains you need to rethink things. A war expected to last three days is a lot different than one lasting three years. The Russian Hitler wishes never to have to account for his crimes so a Kremlin controlled Ukraine keeps him much safer. But again, everything has a price.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Russia has in effect admitted they're going to lose:

Russia appears ready to accept Crimea as Ukraine's—on one condition

"If you respect Ukraine's integrity so much, give Crimea back to us," Ukraine's Maria Drutska said after Sergei Lavrov's comments at the UN General Assembly.

www.newsweek.com

They're asking for a neutral Ukraine. (In other words, for time to rebuild and come back to try again later.) There's no way they would be doing that if they thought they could win.

Or the state gangsters would rather just keep their stolen money. In the end it's all about personal gain. Ukraine contains great wealth but everything has a price and if the price is higher than the expected gains you need to rethink things. A war expected to last three days is a lot different than one lasting three years. The Russian Hitler wishes never to have to account for his crimes so a Kremlin controlled Ukraine keeps him much safer. But again, everything has a price.

But a year ago didn't Putin sign laws making Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions part of Russia? Am I missing something here? How does this work? Weren't they part of the 1990 Declaration of State Sovereignty too?
At any rate, so what's stopping them from going home? Don't let the border gate hit you in the ass. Or does Russia need more shame heaped on them for motivation?

 

[ZiprHead]

Ukraine has acknowledged the Abrams tanks have arrived.

This video shows why Russian tanks suck.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Russia has in effect admitted they're going to lose:

Russia appears ready to accept Crimea as Ukraine's—on one condition

"If you respect Ukraine's integrity so much, give Crimea back to us," Ukraine's Maria Drutska said after Sergei Lavrov's comments at the UN General Assembly.

www.newsweek.com

They're asking for a neutral Ukraine. (In other words, for time to rebuild and come back to try again later.) There's no way they would be doing that if they thought they could win.

Translation: Lavrov is saying that Ukraine can get its independence back as long as they agree to go back to being a puppet state.

He's saying that Russia only gave Ukraine independence to begin with assuming it would stay unaligned (ie weak) to allow Russia to control it. Ie, in the eyes of Russia, Ukraine never had independence.

Russia needs to be stopped. Lavrov's rhetoric is insane. Imperialistic backward craziness. Its like the 20'th century never happened

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Russian military incompetence. Again.

.....
New footage circulating online appears to show a Russian soldier criticizing a "brand new" tank round as both Moscow and Ukraine attempt to maintain ammunition supplies for the grinding battles along the front lines in southern and eastern Ukraine.

"Look what we got. Here's a brand new shell, but there is no TNT inside," a soldier can be heard saying in Russian in the expletive-filled footage. "We have dozens of such shells, they arrived just the other day."
.....

Russian tanker fumes at commanders for "empty" tank shell: "No TNT!"

"With these rounds, we aren't going to win this war," the unidentified Russian soldier says in the clip.

www.newsweek.com

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Russian military incompetence. Again.

.....
New footage circulating online appears to show a Russian soldier criticizing a "brand new" tank round as both Moscow and Ukraine attempt to maintain ammunition supplies for the grinding battles along the front lines in southern and eastern Ukraine.

"Look what we got. Here's a brand new shell, but there is no TNT inside," a soldier can be heard saying in Russian in the expletive-filled footage. "We have dozens of such shells, they arrived just the other day."
.....

Russian tanker fumes at commanders for "empty" tank shell: "No TNT!"

"With these rounds, we aren't going to win this war," the unidentified Russian soldier says in the clip.

www.newsweek.com

Probably not incompetence, just more evidence of corruption. The problem is that everyone is on the take except for the poor bastard left holding the useless shell. So good luck fixing the problem.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Incompetence lies in not checking these things as they leave the factory, orcare loaded forvshipment to the front. With bad reputations for this sort of crap in the Russian military supply logistics, the Russians just can't figure out how to stop this.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Ukraine has acknowledged the Abrams tanks have arrived.

This video shows why Russian tanks suck.

He's being a bit too harsh. IFVs are meant to stand up to small arms, not heavy weapons. Anybody's IFV would go up from the sort of hits he's showing.

Drone warfare has totally changed the battlefield. Point defense on armor isn't very practical against incoming heavy weapons but I think we are going to see anti-drone point defense on all armor in the not too distant future. I also think we are going to see much more emphasis on AA guns. Nobody's AA is up to the current threat environment and we are actually behind on it--our doctrine has been to control the skies first and that's no longer possible. We need organic AA.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Incompetence lies in not checking these things as they leave the factory, orcare loaded forvshipment to the front. With bad reputations for this sort of crap in the Russian military supply logistics, the Russians just can't figure out how to stop this.

The inspectors are on the take.

 

[Elixir]

Incompetence lies in not checking these things as they leave the factory, orcare loaded forvshipment to the front.

Sure, but an open window awaits he who checks and discovers that the tnt provider padded their margins here and there.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Ukraine has acknowledged the Abrams tanks have arrived.

This video shows why Russian tanks suck.

He's being a bit too harsh. IFVs are meant to stand up to small arms, not heavy weapons. Anybody's IFV would go up from the sort of hits he's showing.

Drone warfare has totally changed the battlefield. Point defense on armor isn't very practical against incoming heavy weapons but I think we are going to see anti-drone point defense on all armor in the not too distant future. I also think we are going to see much more emphasis on AA guns. Nobody's AA is up to the current threat environment and we are actually behind on it--our doctrine has been to control the skies first and that's no longer possible. We need organic AA.

The problem with AA weapons is to work on fast moving targets one needs radar. Radar means HARMS missles taking out these systems. And so it is not going to be easy to create a cheap and effective anti-drone AA system.