How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[T.G.G. Moogly]

This weekend I went hiking with a group of friends. One of us is an ex-commando soldier and now an officer in the strategic staff of Seeden.

We talked about the Ukraine war. He said "every NATO country is extremely involved in the Ukraine war. The only thing we're not doing is holding the weapons when they go bang".

Sweden is flying as many spy drones over Russia as they can, reporting to Ukraine.

Ukraine soldiers are routinely being cycled to UK for 5-week training, where they get new fancy toys and training on how to use them.

So basically, this is a proxy war between Russia and NATO.

It's a war between democratic freedom and dictatorship.

Is it? Are you sure Ukraine qualifies as a free democracy?

I think it's a war to contain Russian aggression. And nothing else. I don't think NATO is fighting for anything. Only against something. After a Ukraine win, there's no guarantees Ukraine will become a modern healthy free democracy

Isn't NATO a democratic institution? Now go back and read what you just wrote.

 

[Copernicus]

The EU is already grumbling about Poland and Hungary backsliding into autocracies. Ukraine is going to have a hard time getting into NATO and the EU without continuing to move more in the direction of rule by law instead of rule by loyalty.

 

[DrZoidberg]

This weekend I went hiking with a group of friends. One of us is an ex-commando soldier and now an officer in the strategic staff of Seeden.

We talked about the Ukraine war. He said "every NATO country is extremely involved in the Ukraine war. The only thing we're not doing is holding the weapons when they go bang".

Sweden is flying as many spy drones over Russia as they can, reporting to Ukraine.

Ukraine soldiers are routinely being cycled to UK for 5-week training, where they get new fancy toys and training on how to use them.

So basically, this is a proxy war between Russia and NATO.

It's a war between democratic freedom and dictatorship.

Is it? Are you sure Ukraine qualifies as a free democracy?

I think it's a war to contain Russian aggression. And nothing else. I don't think NATO is fighting for anything. Only against something. After a Ukraine win, there's no guarantees Ukraine will become a modern healthy free democracy

Isn't NATO a democratic institution? Now go back and read what you just wrote.

Sure. But that doesn’t mean democracy for Ukraine is guaranteed even if they win. It didn't work out so well for Iraq or Afghanistan, despite our best democratic efforts

 

[DrZoidberg]

The EU is already grumbling about Poland and Hungary backsliding into autocracies. Ukraine is going to have a hard time getting into NATO and the EU without continuing to move more in the direction of rule by law instead of rule by loyalty.

Democracy is out of fashion in the ex-communist countries of Europe. This is something west Europe (and USA) struggles with understanding.

My take on it, in the west neoliberalism is our religion. Our fanatical devotion to self improvement and wealth generation has made us blind to other values. In the west we've intrinsically linked free market capitalism with democracy. I think that's what Eastern Europe is reacting against.

 

[lpetrich]

Strange bedfellows: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene on X: "The war in Ukraine must END! ..." / X

The war in Ukraine must END!

Today, I met brave @codepink activists who protested for peace in Bernie Sanders’ office. He had 11 of them arrested!

Peace & free speech shouldn’t be a partisan issue.

We don’t agree on most things, but we do agree Congress should STOP fueling the war in Ukraine!

Marjorie Taylor Greene Posing With Left-Wing Group Sparks Backlash

CODE PINK is a left-wing, feminist grassroots organization founded in 2002 that is working, according to its website, to "end U.S. warfare and imperialism, support peace and human rights initiatives, and redirect resources into healthcare, education, green jobs and other life-affirming programs."

'MTG opportunistically approached': Code Pink distances itself from lawmaker after photo - Raw Story

"The fact that you meet with far-left pro-communist regimes is another proof that the Horseshoe theory is 100% true. You’re a POS," wrote the popular group called Republicans against Trump.

MSNBC host Mehdi Hasan apparently jumped to criticize Code Pink for working with Greene, but later deleted those posts after a clarification from the activist group.

CODEPINK on X: "There has been some confusion ..." / X

There has been some confusion about an image that was taken w/ CODEPINK volunteers & Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green. MTG opportunistically approached our volunteers in a parking lot on the Hill and she requested they take a photo together (1/4)

our volunteers weren’t sure how to respond & immediately reached out to us about what happened after the fact. This picture was not initiated by our organization. (2/4)

We will continue to organize against war and demand our resources be reinvested into human needs like housing, universal healthcare, and education. (3/4)

There is a difference between being anti-war and not wanting funding for Ukraine War. To be anti-war, you must be an internationalist.

Danaka explains more here in an interview done before this video was taken (4/4)

Code Pink's home page: CODEPINK - Women for Peace

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Wait... "end U.S. warfare and imperialism"? Ukraine isn't a remotely imperialistic situation for the US. We get almost nothing out of Ukraine managing their own affairs.

 

[Elixir]

We get almost nothing out of Ukraine managing their own affairs.

... except a little slack, so we can meddle elsewhere.

 

[Copernicus]

It looks like Russia is back to blowing up underwater gas pipelines. This one looks like retaliation against Finland for joining NATO.

Finland investigates suspected sabotage of Baltic-connector gas pipeline​

 

[TV and credit cards]

It looks like Russia is back to blowing up underwater gas pipelines. This one looks like retaliation against Finland for joining NATO.

Finland investigates suspected sabotage of Baltic-connector gas pipeline​

NATO to respond if Baltic Sea pipeline damage deliberate - alliance chief

NATO will discuss damage to a gas pipeline and data cable running between member states Finland and Estonia, and will mount a "determined" response if a deliberate attack is proven, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[Copernicus]

It looks like Russia is back to blowing up underwater gas pipelines. This one looks like retaliation against Finland for joining NATO.

Finland investigates suspected sabotage of Baltic-connector gas pipeline​

NATO to respond if Baltic Sea pipeline damage deliberate - alliance chief

NATO will discuss damage to a gas pipeline and data cable running between member states Finland and Estonia, and will mount a "determined" response if a deliberate attack is proven, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

I'll believe it when I see it.

I doubt you'll see it, because they don't specify what would count as "proof". And it is unlikely that they have any good idea of what they mean by "determined response". They aren't going to attack Russia, and economic sanctions are already in place. What more could they do?

 

[Elixir]

is unlikely that they have any good idea of what they mean by "determined response". They aren't going to attack Russia, and economic sanctions are already in place. What more could they do?

Probably give them a really determined look.

 

[TomC]

is unlikely that they have any good idea of what they mean by "determined response". They aren't going to attack Russia, and economic sanctions are already in place. What more could they do?

Probably give them a really determined look.

Or maybe, declare the Baltic Sea off limits to any Russian ship. Subject to commandeering and/or destruction. Crews treated as war prisoners.
Tom

 

[Elixir]

is unlikely that they have any good idea of what they mean by "determined response". They aren't going to attack Russia, and economic sanctions are already in place. What more could they do?

Probably give them a really determined look.

Or maybe, declare the Baltic Sea off limits to any Russian ship. Subject to commandeering and/or destruction. Crews treated as war prisoners.
Tom

Might as well go ahead and grab Kaliningrad while Pootey is distracted elsewhere.

 

[Copernicus]

is unlikely that they have any good idea of what they mean by "determined response". They aren't going to attack Russia, and economic sanctions are already in place. What more could they do?

Probably give them a really determined look.

Or maybe, declare the Baltic Sea off limits to any Russian ship. Subject to commandeering and/or destruction. Crews treated as war prisoners.
Tom

Might as well go ahead and grab Kaliningrad while Pootey is distracted elsewhere.

Both proposals would be overt and treated as acts of war by Russia. Of course, blowing up that pipeline was an act of war, but there is no concrete proof that Russia was the perpetrator, just the party with the strongest and most obvious motive. I would expect any serious retaliation by NATO to be covert, if it were done at all.

 

[Elixir]

I would expect any serious retaliation by NATO to be covert, if it were done at all.

Ok, so a lot Russian ships in the Baltic have some very unfortunate accidents … probably down to crappy Russian construction.

 

[TV and credit cards]

It looks like Russia is back to blowing up underwater gas pipelines. This one looks like retaliation against Finland for joining NATO.

Finland investigates suspected sabotage of Baltic-connector gas pipeline​

NATO to respond if Baltic Sea pipeline damage deliberate - alliance chief

NATO will discuss damage to a gas pipeline and data cable running between member states Finland and Estonia, and will mount a "determined" response if a deliberate attack is proven, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

I'll believe it when I see it.

I doubt you'll see it, because they don't specify what would count as "proof". And it is unlikely that they have any good idea of what they mean by "determined response". They aren't going to attack Russia, and economic sanctions are already in place. What more could they do?

I was thinking something like reinstating restrictions on the railroad through Lithuania to Kaliningrad they had in place for all of a month last year.

 

[Elixir]

It looks like Russia is back to blowing up underwater gas pipelines. This one looks like retaliation against Finland for joining NATO.

Finland investigates suspected sabotage of Baltic-connector gas pipeline​

NATO to respond if Baltic Sea pipeline damage deliberate - alliance chief

NATO will discuss damage to a gas pipeline and data cable running between member states Finland and Estonia, and will mount a "determined" response if a deliberate attack is proven, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

I'll believe it when I see it.

I doubt you'll see it, because they don't specify what would count as "proof". And it is unlikely that they have any good idea of what they mean by "determined response". They aren't going to attack Russia, and economic sanctions are already in place. What more could they do?

I was thinking something like reinstating restrictions on the railroad through Lithuania to Kaliningrad they had in place for all of a month last year.

Yeah, shame if that line broke.

 

[Copernicus]

I have a conspiracy theory to offer here. Iran-backed Hamas made a massive sneak attack on Israel on Saturday, guaranteeing obsessive reporting in Western media and pledges of military aid from the US--at a time when the US is having trouble meeting Ukrainian military needs. On Sunday, the very next day, the gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland was sabotaged, guaranteeing a long winter without that supply. The repairs will not be finished before April. Neither the pipeline sabotage nor the Hamas attack was spur of the moment. Both had to have been planned months in advance. The timing is such that the Israel crisis suppresses media reporting on the pipeline explosion. Coincidence?

Analysts struggle to understand why Hamas suddenly launched that attack, and Russian media is now crowing that US and Israeli intelligence were asleep when Hamas attacked. Who stood to gain most from the chaos and suffering in Israel? Iran and Russia. Who stood to lose the most, besides Israel? Ukraine, the US, Finland, and NATO. Maybe it was just coincidence. Maybe not.

 

[blastula]

No way, not possible, Putin hates violence and civilian causalities.

Receipts:

Putin Expresses Concern Over 'Catastrophic Increase' in Israel-Gaza Death Toll - The Moscow Times

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday voiced concern over the "catastrophic increase" in the number of civilians killed since fighting between Israel and the Hamas militant group erupted over the weekend. During a telephone call with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, "emphasis...

www.themoscowtimes.com

"Deep concern was expressed about the continuing escalation of violence and the catastrophic increase in the number of civilian casualties."

 

[DrZoidberg]

I have a conspiracy theory to offer here. Iran-backed Hamas made a massive sneak attack on Israel on Saturday, guaranteeing obsessive reporting in Western media and pledges of military aid from the US--at a time when the US is having trouble meeting Ukrainian military needs. On Sunday, the very next day, the gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland was sabotaged, guaranteeing a long winter without that supply. The repairs will not be finished before April. Neither the pipeline sabotage nor the Hamas attack was spur of the moment. Both had to have been planned months in advance. The timing is such that the Israel crisis suppresses media reporting on the pipeline explosion. Coincidence?

Analysts struggle to understand why Hamas suddenly launched that attack, and Russian media is now crowing that US and Israeli intelligence were asleep when Hamas attacked. Who stood to gain most from the chaos and suffering in Israel? Iran and Russia. Who stood to lose the most, besides Israel? Ukraine, the US, Finland, and NATO. Maybe it was just coincidence. Maybe not.

You need a theory explaining a Hammas attack? They do this shit all the time. Isn't it a better idea to try to explain why they've kept calm so long?

I think Putin struggles with controlling his underlings. It's a feature of autocratic dictatorship. The ruling clique around Putin form a kind of nobility, and are free to do a bit like they please. They act in Putin's interest and have their interests linked to Putin's. But there's just no way he can oversee what all of those guys do all day. I think Russian attacks are going to be a bit random.

Iran doesn't give a shit about Russia. Russia, Turkey and Iran aren't allied. They just have some interests in common. But they have no love for eachother, nor do they actively support eachother. They're all in it for themselves. Israel is a proxy for USA. That's why Iran hates it. Iran wants an unstable Middle-East. Israel is a stable island in a sea of chaos. They don't like it. The Middle-East is right now caught in a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It's all about projecting influence as widely as possible following the Arab spring.