James Brown
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Why is that?
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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?
- Thread starter Harry Bosch
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Why is that?
DrZoidberg
Contributor
If I have understood things correctly the middle east has two major powers, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Both are well poised to exploit instabilities among their neighbours. Which they do.
The middle-east is extremely corrupt and a long tradition of fucking over your own countrymen if it benefits your little group. So having ruling families of a weaker nations in your pocket can be extremely lucrative for you personally, if you have power.
The Iranian ruling elite is extremely unscrupulous
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
What I posted was sheer speculation based on the coincidence of those two events within hours of each other. The question that many analysts are trying to figure out is why Hamas decided to launch their attack at this time. What did they have to gain, when the retaliation would be swift and devastating? There was no way that Israel would simply capitulate to their demands. However, Iran had a more immediate concern--the rapprochement between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Arab nations in the region. This attack came in time to scuttle those. The inevitable slaughter of Palestinians trapped in Gaza will make it difficult, if not impossible, for Israel to continue its policy of normalization in the near future. It also served Putin's interests in that the US now has the burden of arming two separate countries caught up in wars started by aggressors--Ukraine and Israel.
I don't know why you included Turkey in the above. I never said anything about that country. You are wrong about the Iran-Russia connection for the simple reason that both countries have a mutual enemy--the United States. That's why they have implemented formal intelligence and security agreements with each other. Iran is a major arms supplier for Russia, and the intelligence services from both countries complement each other. Russia is a major supporter of Syria, a country run by the Alawite Shia Assad clan and allied to Iran (although the Alawites have strict differences with mainstream Iranian Shi'ites).
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Australian 'drone killer' system heading for Ukraine
In the back lot of an industrial site in Canberra, engineers are producing a response to the growing drone threat in Ukraine. It is called Slinger — and it is designed to counter drones at a cost that countries like Ukraine can afford.
www.abc.net.au
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DrZoidberg
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Hammas doesn't care about the Palestinians. They get their money from Iran. Hammas couldn't give less of a shit if their behaviour negatively impacts their people. Or rather, they like it. Because Islam has a high focus on martyrdom/victimhood culture. The more victims they are, the more they score Islam-points. The leadership of Hammas are only relevant if Israel keeps attacking them. So they have a vested interest in continually kicking the hornets nest. Hammas doesn't want to win. If the Palestinians win Hammas will become irrelevant. They don't want that.
When Hammas was elected into power in the first Palestinian election, they wrecked the economy in order to prepare for war. A war, they had no hope of ever winning. They still did it. And increased Palestine's dependence on foreign support. Ie, from Iran.
It's also important to understand that the Arab nations around Israel do not care about the Palestinians. They are not helping them. There is no Arab nationalism. There is no unified Muslim nation. Islamic support for other Muslims is extremely weak. The Arab world is extremely fractured. The countries of the Middle-East are colonial creations. They have nothing, other than the threat of violence by dictators, holding them together.
Arab players around Israel exploit the Palestinians when it suits their interests. Otherwise they don't give a fuck.
Palestinians are Sunni. Iran is Shia. Iran is still supporting them. It's almost like religion doesn't matter to them. This is not a religious conflict. It's barely an ethnic conflict. It's just power play, by small groups who have managed to climb to the top. When Ayatollah Khomeini came to power in Iran he very quickly abandoned any pretences of caring about anything other than just powr for himself and is cronies. The same people are still in power in Iran. It's just a bunch of power hungry monsters. They have no higher ideals
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Tigers!
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I am somewhat pleased about our technology. But not entirely for the purpose of killing.
Australian 'drone killer' system heading for Ukraine
In the back lot of an industrial site in Canberra, engineers are producing a response to the growing drone threat in Ukraine. It is called Slinger — and it is designed to counter drones at a cost that countries like Ukraine can afford.
Ford
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At the risk of bringing this thread back onto the topic of Ukraine, it bears repeating that the US can militarily walk, chew gum, and maintain several conflicts all at once. What's more, if we didn't send Israel another dime (or advanced weapons system) for the next year or so, they'd have more than enough firepower to flatten Gaza...which appears to be their plan. Ukraine is another matter. What with the US House paralyzed by the Shit-flinging Monkey caucus, aid to Ukraine is in danger of lapsing, and unlike Israel they can't "go it alone" for very long. If this latest war expands and more nations are drawn into conflict, things will get much more complicated. That would definitely serve Putin well, taking the focus off of Ukraine internationally, and Gaza is all set to turn into an appalling humanitarian crisis, which will make humanitarian aid to Ukraine more tenuous.
Will it be enough to weaken Ukraine to the point where Russia will be able to complete their plan to roll into Kyiv and install a puppet government? No, that ship has sailed and is resting at the bottom of the Black Sea. But it might lead to Ukraine having to concede territory to Moscow if they can't push the Barboshkas out of their territory.
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
What the US can do and what it will do are not necessarily the same thing, but I think Israel may need to replenish its Iron Dome arsenal. Defense is not just about flattening Gaza. It's also about other kinds of aid, including medical. And, lest we forget, there is going to be a massive humanitarian crisis regarding the lives of two million inhabitants of Gaza, most of whom are innocent and had nothing to do with the terrorist attack. Donald Trump is not even the only friend that Putin has in the GOP. The MAGA base now seems strongly supportive of the Russian invaders these days.
Hence, my suspicion that Russia may have a hand in what happened, including the foreknowledge to coordinate their alleged pipeline sabotage with the attack. Republicans are split over aid to Ukraine, largely because of Donald Trump's death grip on their political throats and their desire to thwart any policy the Biden administration favors, no matter what the cost or consequence.
Putin's control of energy resources to Europe is the most likely reason for the pipeline sabotage--part of his strategy to drive wedges between members of NATO and the EU. It does look like his goal now is to hold the territory that he did manage to grab and negotiate a peace settlement that allows him to declare victory. He probably realizes that he no longer has the ability to conquer more Ukrainian territory and that most of Ukraine is now hopelessly severed from Russia for at least another generation or two. He has managed to stoke Ukrainian nationalism and animosity towards Russia far beyond what it was at the start of the war, and he has done more for the growth of the Ukrainian language than could possibly have been achieved without his invasion.
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
Thank you for giving your opinion of what goes on in the minds of Palestinians and Hamas, not to mention the history of the region as you see it. I don't have anything like your confidence in my ability to know what is in the hearts and minds of the combatants or what drives their daily lives. I do find it distracting that you consistently misspell Hamas as Hammas. I know that it isn't spelled that way in Danish, and the English is not an exact transliteration of حماس. That would be Hamaas, although I haven't seen it spelled that way in news accounts that I've read. I also don't agree with many of the things you say above, but it would take us too far afield to pick everything out that I disagree with.
OK, that's your impression of Iran. Hezbollah, of course, is a Shia-sponsored political party in the region, and they likely played a role in what happened. Despite the Shia-Sunni rivalry, Iran and Israel are extremely hostile to each other. So we don't need to psychoanalyze the late Ayatollah Khomeini to figure out why they would have supplied Gazans with all those rockets, drones, and other military equipment or spurred Hamas on in launching their attack. I just wonder whether Hamas might have been led to believe that Hezbollah would have opened up a simultaneous front in the north of Israel. It briefly appeared that they were going to do that, but it quickly ended. I suspect that Hamas may have been played.
Elixir
Made in America
Religious fanatics are easily manipulated (see Murkin evangelicals).
I think Iran's leaders are probably THE most cynical people on the planet - a perfect complement to Putler.
That's a retweet and doesn't display properly.
(Fix the URL, the board is reducing it to a number and it's not displaying.)
Original: https://twitter .com/front_ukrainian/status/1710995709976035536
Yeah--if they're going to respond it's going to be sabotage of something.
If the pipeline was a Russian act that actually would trigger Article 5 but I can't imagine them going to a hot war over this.
Iran expands via chaos. Their borders don't change but they become puppetmasters.
I would count Israel as a third major power.
Yup. They turn places into hellholes in order to become puppetmasters.
Yup, a victory would be bad for their leadership. They benefit from being mercenary commanders.
Most of the economy-wrecking was in the Second Intifada, that was before Hamas was important.
Yup, they're Eastasia. The Palestinians themselves are unwanted in any Arab land.
Agreed. That's how all dictatorships are.
Iron Dome is homemade.
And I don't think there's going to be anything humanitarian to do--Hamas won't let the human shields escape, thus there's nothing for us to do.
I think it's more likely that this was instigated by Iran and Russia knew but wasn't really a part of it. They're just using it to their advantage.
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
Nevertheless, components for it are made in US.
US Gives First Iron Dome Interceptors to Israel
If Russia knew in advance, they may have been part of the supply chain. Many of the weapons used by Hamas were of Soviet era manufacturing, and Russia still has a vast supply of those. Russian ships could have been part of the supply chain, since they have a major naval base in Syria and their ships wouldn't be interdicted by Israel.
TV and credit cards
Contributor
Looks like Ukraine has their ATACMS. They hit targets in Beryansk.
www.kyivpost.com
Secretly Deployed ATACMS Used in Devastating Ukrainian Strike on Russian Airfield – Report
Ukraine has since the first days of the invasion repeatedly asked Washington for ATACMS, a weapon designed for American HIMARS launchers already in AFU operation, and ranging out to 500 km.
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