How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[SLD]

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www.realcleardefense.com

interesting comments from Russians in the field. Very different than what Barbos is saying. One says that if this goes on much longer, they’ll be leading Ukrainians to the Kremlin to end the war.

This kind of despair does not bode well for any serious offensive action.

That being said, the West is not doing enough to support Ukraine. We need to give them far, far more artillery ammunition. We have to significantly up our stockpiles. We have to be willing to deplete our own stores. Frankly we don’t need it, as Russia simply cannot attack us in their present state. Far more drones as well. We need to mobilize our defense industry as if we were at war. Otherwise we will be.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Do the Russian people honestly think that they are fighting Nato troops in Ukraine?

Absolutely 100%. Russian people think that they are fighting NATO, which attacked Russia.
In fact, "ukrainians" think that. Even NATO thinks that.

I think Harry meant, that don't reside in your head.

Of all the English speaking Russians on the internet...

 

[TV and credit cards]

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www.realcleardefense.com

interesting comments from Russians in the field. Very different than what Barbos is saying. One says that if this goes on much longer, they’ll be leading Ukrainians to the Kremlin to end the war.

This kind of despair does not bode well for any serious offensive action.

That being said, the West is not doing enough to support Ukraine. We need to give them far, far more artillery ammunition. We have to significantly up our stockpiles. We have to be willing to deplete our own stores. Frankly we don’t need it, as Russia simply cannot attack us in their present state. Far more drones as well. We need to mobilize our defense industry as if we were at war. Otherwise we will be.

These poor saps are just forced at gunpoint. Take your chances marching forward or be executed right here and now is the ultimatum.

We need to give Ukraine the long range weapons now and tell them what they can and can not hit. They've been good stewards so far. Put a period on this already. The Ukrainian soldier average age is forty now while Russia has a near inexhaustible supply of twenty-somethings to discard.

I don't see why congress can't get a weapons funding for border protection through in short order. Polling would indicate Biden isn't going to lose any votes over border money in most any form. The hard left will grumble for a bit but they'll get over it. Biden should announce publicly he'll build a few hundred miles of wall. Trumpkins will make sure the Republican House doesn't balk.

 

[Patooka]

Do the Russian people honestly think that they are fighting Nato troops in Ukraine?

Absolutely 100%. Russian people think that they are fighting NATO, which attacked Russia.
In fact, "ukrainians" think that. Even NATO thinks that.

I think Harry meant, that don't reside in your head.

Of all the English speaking Russians on the internet...

Of course Russians don't believe in that.

They believe in Nazi zombies instead.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Do the Russian people honestly think that they are fighting Nato troops in Ukraine?

Absolutely 100%. Russian people think that they are fighting NATO, which attacked Russia.
In fact, "ukrainians" think that. Even NATO thinks that.

Babs’ psychic abilities are legend.
In Russia.

I don't often agree with babs particularly when he includes a huge dose of hyperbole. But the fact is that Russians are not free to voice their opinions unless of course they would like to mine salt or join the prison ranks. A majority of Russians will voice support for the war because its the safe thing to do. If they actually knew what freedom was and were able to exercise that freedom like we do in the west there would never have been an invasion by Putin.

 

[bilby]

A seafloor tunnel could easily be flooded by a sufficiently large bomb. Any tunnel would have to be deep enough to be protected from charges on the sea floor.

That depends on what you consider "easy", and on what you consider "sufficiently large". Tunnels are very strong structures, designed to resist high external pressures, and contained by usually many tens of metres of whatever substrate they are drilled through.

I certainly wouldn't consider placing charges accurately on the seafloor to be easy; And am dubious about just how large such charges would need to be in order to be sufficient to damage a tunnel located a fair way below them.

A tunnel through a malleable substrate like clay would likely be extremely difficult to damage in this way, as the clay would transmit the blast far less effectively than a less elastic geology.

There's a reason why a bomb shelter or even a slit trench is an effective way to protect against nearby explosions. Even a couple of hundred millimetres of dirt is a very effective shield against blast effects.

 

[TomC]

A seafloor tunnel could easily be flooded by a sufficiently large bomb. Any tunnel would have to be deep enough to be protected from charges on the sea floor.

I have trouble imagining how such a tunnel could be successfully completed under current circumstances.
Tom

 

[Loren Pechtel]

?? Where does it say that? The larger issue that you missed is that

It is common knowledge.

None! I do trust that Russia will attack countries that are are smaller than it unless they are in NATO.

There is plenty non NATO countries which have not been attacked. In fact, Russia have never attacked any non NATO country.
That's not really the point here. The point here is that everything what Putin/Russia were saying had been confirmed by ..... hgh ranking ukrainian who knows.

Afghanistan says hello.

 

[Patooka]

?? Where does it say that? The larger issue that you missed is that

It is common knowledge.

None! I do trust that Russia will attack countries that are are smaller than it unless they are in NATO.

There is plenty non NATO countries which have not been attacked. In fact, Russia have never attacked any non NATO country.
That's not really the point here. The point here is that everything what Putin/Russia were saying had been confirmed by ..... hgh ranking ukrainian who knows.

Afghanistan says hello.

...and then said Chechnya would like to have a word.

 

[Copernicus]

?? Where does it say that? The larger issue that you missed is that

It is common knowledge.

None! I do trust that Russia will attack countries that are are smaller than it unless they are in NATO.

There is plenty non NATO countries which have not been attacked. In fact, Russia have never attacked any non NATO country.
That's not really the point here. The point here is that everything what Putin/Russia were saying had been confirmed by ..... hgh ranking ukrainian who knows.

Afghanistan says hello.

...and then said Chechnya would like to have a word.

Georgia would also like a word, if you're not too busy dealing with the other angry countries.

The 2008 Russo-Georgian War: Putin’s green light​

 

[bilby]

?? Where does it say that? The larger issue that you missed is that

It is common knowledge.

None! I do trust that Russia will attack countries that are are smaller than it unless they are in NATO.

There is plenty non NATO countries which have not been attacked. In fact, Russia have never attacked any non NATO country.
That's not really the point here. The point here is that everything what Putin/Russia were saying had been confirmed by ..... hgh ranking ukrainian who knows.

Afghanistan says hello.

...and then said Chechnya would like to have a word.

Georgia would also like a word, if you're not too busy dealing with the other angry countries.

The 2008 Russo-Georgian War: Putin’s green light​

Then, of course, there's Romania, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland, all (bar the first) consequent to, and all contemporaneous with, the German invasion of Poland that triggered British and French entry into WWII; And going back further, Tsarist Russia invaded Galicia and East Prussia in 1914, albeit with limited success in the long term.

There in fact hasn't been a period in Russian history when she has not attacked a non-NATO country. The striking thing is that she has never dared attack a NATO country, which might explain why Ukraine is keen to join NATO just as soon as she is able to meet the entry requirements.

 

[TV and credit cards]

A bit of clarity on US defense capacity, its inability to expand, and the added cost of continuing resolutions.

Ukraine Isn’t the Reason the U.S. Is Unprepared for War

A lack of defense production has created an alarming gap between America’s strategy and its capabilities.

www.theatlantic.com

If Washington were instead to deliver—on time—a budget that fully funds the country’s defense strategy, manufacturers might have the confidence to build the plants and hire and train the workers needed to replenish U.S. military stockpiles. The industry will want multiyear contracts, because it has been burned repeatedly by starting production only to have funding zeroed out by either Congress or DOD the following year.

Inventory Replacement Times

 

[Copernicus]

A bit of clarity on US defense capacity, its inability to expand, and the added cost of continuing resolutions.

Ukraine Isn’t the Reason the U.S. Is Unprepared for War

A lack of defense production has created an alarming gap between America’s strategy and its capabilities.

www.theatlantic.com

If Washington were instead to deliver—on time—a budget that fully funds the country’s defense strategy, manufacturers might have the confidence to build the plants and hire and train the workers needed to replenish U.S. military stockpiles. The industry will want multiyear contracts, because it has been burned repeatedly by starting production only to have funding zeroed out by either Congress or DOD the following year.

Inventory Replacement Times

It isn't just funding from Congress that is causing the problem. Lean manufacturing processes, which were first implemented by Toyota (albeit invented in the US), have become commonplace in manufacturing industries in the past few decades. Those processes are designed to reduce the accumulation of inventories, which are regarded as wasteful. Ideally, needed components are produced just in time for delivery as needed. Demand drives production schedules, not the availability of supplies that accumulate just in case they are needed. Also, the globalization of supply chains has caused problems when those chains are interrupted by unforeseen and unplanned events such as pandemics.

 

[bilby]

A bit of clarity on US defense capacity, its inability to expand, and the added cost of continuing resolutions.

Ukraine Isn’t the Reason the U.S. Is Unprepared for War

A lack of defense production has created an alarming gap between America’s strategy and its capabilities.

www.theatlantic.com

If Washington were instead to deliver—on time—a budget that fully funds the country’s defense strategy, manufacturers might have the confidence to build the plants and hire and train the workers needed to replenish U.S. military stockpiles. The industry will want multiyear contracts, because it has been burned repeatedly by starting production only to have funding zeroed out by either Congress or DOD the following year.

Inventory Replacement Times

It isn't just funding from Congress that is causing the problem. Lean manufacturing processes, which were first implemented by Toyota (albeit invented in the US), have become commonplace in manufacturing industries in the past few decades. Those processes are designed to reduce the accumulation of inventories, which are regarded as wasteful. Ideally, needed components are produced just in time for delivery as needed. Demand drives production schedules, not the availability of supplies that accumulate just in case they are needed. Also, the globalization of supply chains has caused problems when those chains are interrupted by unforeseen and unplanned events such as pandemics.

Lean is cheap, but it's brittle. When it works, it saves a lot of money, but it is completely dependant on ultra-reliable supply chains, and on agile production by suppliers.

This makes it very poorly suited to any industry that is intended to work during times of crisis - particularly Healthcare, Emergency Management, and Defence.

It is ideally suited to industries where the final product is complex and expensive, but also a luxury item for which the end user is only mildly inconvenienced by any delays. It's no surprise that the Automotive industry was one of the earliest adopters; And given the tendency of managers to seize any opportunity for large cost savings, and to disregard the long term impact of those savings on the stability or resilience of their businesses, it's also no surprise that it has spread to encompass industries to which it is very poorly suited.

Defence is inherently and unavoidably wasteful. Deterence demands that you have a lot of very expensive kit, and the expensive trained personnel to use it, just sitting around "doing nothing".

If you have enough of that stuff, it never gets used. If you don't have enough, then it probably will get used, and when it does, you're going to rue the fact that you didn't have more.

 

[TV and credit cards]

A bit of clarity on US defense capacity, its inability to expand, and the added cost of continuing resolutions.

Ukraine Isn’t the Reason the U.S. Is Unprepared for War

A lack of defense production has created an alarming gap between America’s strategy and its capabilities.

www.theatlantic.com

If Washington were instead to deliver—on time—a budget that fully funds the country’s defense strategy, manufacturers might have the confidence to build the plants and hire and train the workers needed to replenish U.S. military stockpiles. The industry will want multiyear contracts, because it has been burned repeatedly by starting production only to have funding zeroed out by either Congress or DOD the following year.

Inventory Replacement Times

It isn't just funding from Congress that is causing the problem. Lean manufacturing processes, which were first implemented by Toyota (albeit invented in the US), have become commonplace in manufacturing industries in the past few decades. Those processes are designed to reduce the accumulation of inventories, which are regarded as wasteful. Ideally, needed components are produced just in time for delivery as needed. Demand drives production schedules, not the availability of supplies that accumulate just in case they are needed. Also, the globalization of supply chains has caused problems when those chains are interrupted by unforeseen and unplanned events such as pandemics.

Lean is cheap, but it's brittle. When it works, it saves a lot of money, but it is completely dependant on ultra-reliable supply chains, and on agile production by suppliers.

This makes it very poorly suited to any industry that is intended to work during times of crisis - particularly Healthcare, Emergency Management, and Defence.

It is ideally suited to industries where the final product is complex and expensive, but also a luxury item for which the end user is only mildly inconvenienced by any delays. It's no surprise that the Automotive industry was one of the earliest adopters; And given the tendency of managers to seize any opportunity for large cost savings, and to disregard the long term impact of those savings on the stability or resilience of their businesses, it's also no surprise that it has spread to encompass industries to which it is very poorly suited.

Defence is inherently and unavoidably wasteful. Deterence demands that you have a lot of very expensive kit, and the expensive trained personnel to use it, just sitting around "doing nothing".

If you have enough of that stuff, it never gets used. If you don't have enough, then it probably will get used, and when it does, you're going to rue the fact that you didn't have more.

Yeah, sitting around doing nothing is not only a big part of being in the military, it is also a part the defense industry. Company tech reps sit around ready to go on a moment's notice to fly around the world and then out to a ship. Company representatives are also ready to provide training on new systems/configurations when requested by the fleet. Inventory (repair parts) for systems sits on shelves and gets from a defense storage site or a US manufacturer to the Persian Gulf in a day or two. By contract this inventory has to be available. I've never seen this not work. The process is nearly flawless. It's my understanding a manufacturer will be supported, that is, be kept in business if necessary to fulfill the ongoing support side of its contract if another manufacturer of that particular part can not be secured. Any time I ever got a peek into the supply side of the navy I was always flabbergasted by the enormity of it.
On shore duty, my repair parts mostly came from Crane, IN.

 

[Copernicus]

Yeah, sitting around doing nothing is not only a big part of being in the military, it is also a part the defense industry. Company tech reps sit around ready to go on a moment's notice to fly around the world and then out to a ship. Company representatives are also ready to provide training on new systems/configurations when requested by the fleet. Inventory (repair parts) for systems sits on shelves and gets from a defense storage site or a US manufacturer to the Persian Gulf in a day or two. By contract this inventory has to be available. I've never seen this not work. The process is nearly flawless. It's my understanding a manufacturer will be supported, that is, be kept in business if necessary to fulfill the ongoing support side of its contract if another manufacturer of that particular part can not be secured. Any time I ever got a peek into the supply side of the navy I was always flabbergasted by the enormity of it.
On shore duty, my repair parts mostly came from Crane, IN.

Having worked almost three decades at Boeing, I've seen a lot of ways in which the manufacturing of complex machines can break down when a problem develops in the supply chain. As a language specialist working in a large international company, I was often tasked to work on ways to deal with breakdowns in communication. All of the communication had to take place in English, but people in the supply chain have varying degrees of fluency when it comes to that language, especially when you are dealing with very complex instructions for assembly and disassembly of equipment, not to mention the training of personnel who had to deal with the products. I've seen cases where kits for a component were manufactured in one country and shipped off to the factory in another country without being assembled and tested simply because the contract language was vague or ambiguous about who was to do the assembly and testing. Those receiving the component expected fully assembled and tested components but just basically got boxes of parts.

 

[barbos]

?? Where does it say that? The larger issue that you missed is that

It is common knowledge.

None! I do trust that Russia will attack countries that are are smaller than it unless they are in NATO.

There is plenty non NATO countries which have not been attacked. In fact, Russia have never attacked any non NATO country.
That's not really the point here. The point here is that everything what Putin/Russia were saying had been confirmed by ..... hgh ranking ukrainian who knows.

Afghanistan says hello.

First, It was Soviet Union. Second, it was not even Soviet Union, It was USA. We've been over it million times.

 

[barbos]

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www.realcleardefense.com

interesting comments from Russians in the field. Very different than what Barbos is saying. One says that if this goes on much longer, they’ll be leading Ukrainians to the Kremlin to end the war.

This kind of despair does not bode well for any serious offensive action.

That being said, the West is not doing enough to support Ukraine. We need to give them far, far more artillery ammunition. We have to significantly up our stockpiles. We have to be willing to deplete our own stores. Frankly we don’t need it, as Russia simply cannot attack us in their present state. Far more drones as well. We need to mobilize our defense industry as if we were at war. Otherwise we will be.

Do you understand that your Media feeds you shit which has very little with reality?

 

[barbos]

Do the Russian people honestly think that they are fighting Nato troops in Ukraine?

Absolutely 100%. Russian people think that they are fighting NATO, which attacked Russia.
In fact, "ukrainians" think that. Even NATO thinks that.

Odd, how the dead soldiers seem to Ukrainian.

Yes, mostly ukrainian NATO soldiers and mercenaries from NATO countries.

 

[barbos]

Latest NATO party resulted in .... no more lethal weapons for Nazistan. Thanks to Hungary