How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Harry Bosch]

Russia is turning the entire area against Russia, uniting the Nato and Non-Nato countries against Russia.

Actually, ...... not so much.

The fact that you are so defensive on such an obviously true statement shows me that this is the real issue. Russian aggression is turning all the Eastern European countries against Russia. Ukraine was a chaotic disjointed mess until they united to prepare for war against the aggressor. Putin, the great grand chessmaster, is accomplishing the absolute opposite of what he wants.

 

[barbos]

If Putin won't accept diplomacy to settle disputes

If Kennedy won't accept diplomacy to settle disputes.....

?? Kennedy didn't invade any Russian lands. After the crisis was over, they returned to normal status. Do you not understand how diplomacy works?

Putin did not invade any American land.

 

[Elixir]

Russia is turning the entire area against Russia, uniting the Nato and Non-Nato countries against Russia.

Actually, ...... not so much.

The fact that you are so defensive on such an obviously true statement shows me that this is the real issue. Russian aggression is turning all the Eastern European countries against Russia. Ukraine was a chaotic disjointed mess until they united to prepare for war against the aggressor. Putin, the great grand chessmaster, is accomplishing the absolute opposite of what he wants.

The chances that Russian media reflects that reality are non-existent. Barbos is quite at a loss - probably senses that the Pootey predicament is real, but doesn't want to examine it too closely. Reduced to "Actually, .... not so much", his inability to respond with any evidence to the contrary explains more than any multi-page treatise any of us could write on the subject.

After 22 years as Supreme Leader, Pootey is lost inside his own head, where he creates realities of his own design without fear of repercussions from their variance from actual reality. Pretty much like his mentee, Agent Orange. But also like AO, Pootey will eventually run up against the external reality that doesn't conform to his delusions of Soviet grandeur. A lot of people will probably die trying to keep his fantasy alive, which is a shame. But that's the nature of despots. Here is the USA, we have hundreds of thousands dead already from trying to play along with the fantasies of a despot whose reign only lasted four years on paper.

 

[barbos]

Russia is turning the entire area against Russia, uniting the Nato and Non-Nato countries against Russia.

Actually, ...... not so much.

The fact that you are so defensive on such an obviously true statement shows me that this is the real issue. Russian aggression is turning all the Eastern European countries against Russia. Ukraine was a chaotic disjointed mess until they united to prepare for war against the aggressor. Putin, the great grand chessmaster, is accomplishing the absolute opposite of what he wants.

It's you who is defensive.
As I said earlier. Sweden is pretty much out. Austria is out too.
just because your propaganda cherry picks assholes your government bought does not mean that ordinary folks in EU agrees with them. And as I said, politicians are not all on board with US.

And Ukraine again. Funny how you count NATO support there and see it trending up. Great, but think about how many people are still against it. Think about it. Can you imagine US support for Japan in 1943 let say 20-30%?

Erin Barnett went to Lviv and interviewed some idiots practicing target shooting.
Nice guy, except ..... he is a nazi. Great job! Now if only she was that kind to your own "Jews will not replace us" folk.

 

[Elixir]

Can you imagine US support for Japan in 1943 let say 20-30%?

Don’t have to imagine stuff like that. In 1939 there was a massive “Pro America” rally at Madison Square Garden, in support of Adolph Hitler.
As a comic from a former Soviet bloc country famously said, "What a Country!", eh?

 

[Copernicus]

If Putin won't accept diplomacy to settle disputes

If Kennedy won't accept diplomacy to settle disputes.....

That's exactly how the Cuban Missile dispute ended--a serious diplomatic agreement that deescalated the crisis. The current crisis is not amenable to diplomacy, because Putin is making impossible demands and shows no sign of deescalating a crisis that he himself started without provocation.

 

[Elixir]

The current crisis is not amenable to diplomacy, because Putin is making impossible demands and shows no sign of deescalating a crisis that he himself started without provocation.

The fact that his false flag operation got called out before it began fazes him not in the least. Putin has convinced himself that Ukraine is stolen property of The Sovie, er, Russia, and is determined to take it back as its rightful owner even if the whole world outside of Russia knows damn well its a totally unjustified expansionist land grab. His demands are intentionally impossible and he knows it. But he has an iron grip on the what the Russian people are told about it. His soviet ambition is all that matters to him.

THAT is why the current crisis is not amenable to diplomacy.

 

[laughing dog]

If Putin won't accept diplomacy to settle disputes

If Kennedy won't accept diplomacy to settle disputes.....

Kennedy has been dead for almost 60 years, so what is your point?

 

[Copernicus]

Russian proxy "rebels" broke the ceasefire by shelling Ukrainian territory, but it did not provoke the retaliation that they had hoped for. Just the same, Russia has suddenly decided to move 700,000 residents from the Donetsk area into Russia. A great many have already been made Russian citizens, which is in line with Putin's program of annexing the region.

Separatists in eastern Ukraine say they plan to evacuate 700,000 people

The Duma has passed a law to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk regimes officially, a move that would violate the Minsk agreement that Putin says he wants to use as a basis for negotiations. Since the Duma is a rubber stamp for Putin's policies, this is him using the legislature as a hand puppet.

Russian Parliament Backs Plan to Recognize Breakaway Ukrainian Regions

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

But I was asking a serious question about why there are no Russian nukes in Cuba.

Because USA went apeshit about it and Soviet Union had to take their nukes and other stuff out. Remind you of anything?

I suppose if Comrade Nikita had taken a hard line the US might have invaded Cuba to remove the threat. Historians seem to think that Khrushchev misjudged JFK at an earlier meeting, perceiving him as weak which led Khrushchev to believe he could prevail, albeit secretly. There aren't any secret launchers in Ukraine but you can bet that there will probably be launchers there in the future because of what Putin is doing presently.

In both cases, Cuba and Ukraine, the aggressor was Russia. You can spin that from your perspective but it won't hold up in the court of global public opinion. The reason there aren't any Russian nukes in Cuba is because Russia was the aggressor.

You would think that with generations of precedent Putin would be able to make this observation and be able to adjust. I can understand his fear of glasnost and democracy so maybe that's all he's about.

 

[Elixir]

Yea, I reject your crazy thesis. But regardless, it is your side that has amassed a large military force on the borders of a neighbor that is on the verge of invasion. Putin controls this current situation. And if your side is honestly so stupid to not realize that you are uniting all of Eastern Europe against you; we are truly in trouble

No, it's your side keeps moving toward Russia, occupying different countries.
Imagine if Russia moved into Cuba and installed nukes there?

Yah sure. The US is always sending hundreds of thousands of troops in battle posture to surround Russian, just like Putin is sending 190,000 heavily armed troops to surround Ukraine.
Oh wait. That's just not what the US actually does, is it?
Barbos is living proof that Putin's propaganda is now effectively at the same level as Kruschev's in the 1950s.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Pretty obvious--Putin tried to provoke hostilities by committing a war crime

The same kind of obvious as WMD in Iraq?

The WMD problem in Iraq is we were intercepting internal Iraqi communications. Commanders were reporting successfully hiding WMD from the inspectors. Turns out we were falling for lies directed at Saddam.

We had the same problem with understanding the Russian economy--what was being reported to Moscow had little to do with what was actually happening on the ground.

 

[barbos]

The WMD problem in Iraq is we were intercepting internal Iraqi communications. Commanders were reporting successfully hiding WMD from the inspectors

Actually that was a lie too. US government lied. And even if it was true it was not evidence.

 

[ZiprHead]

The WMD problem in Iraq is we were intercepting internal Iraqi communications. Commanders were reporting successfully hiding WMD from the inspectors

Actually that was a lie too. US government lied. And even if it was true it was not evidence.

So the US lies excuse the lies of Putin and the Kremlin?

 

[barbos]

The WMD problem in Iraq is we were intercepting internal Iraqi communications. Commanders were reporting successfully hiding WMD from the inspectors

Actually that was a lie too. US government lied. And even if it was true it was not evidence.

So the US lies excuse the lies of Putin and the Kremlin?

There is nothing to excuse. Iraq invasion was based on a lie. Yugolsavia bombing was based on a lie, NATO expansion is based on a lie too.

 

[Copernicus]

President Biden now believes that Putin has made the decision to invade Ukraine and the Kyiv will be one of the targets. This will likely happen in the next few days, although Lavrov and Blinken are supposed to have a meeting on the 26th. There are roughly 190,000 Russian troops, and they are moving into battle positions. Preposterous claims are being fed to the Russian public about Ukraine somehow planning to attack Donetsk and Luhansk--hence, the so-called "evacuation" of hundreds of thousands of citizens from Donetsk. Cyberattacks on Ukraine have increased dramatically.



It's also true that the annual spring thaw (rasputitsa) is starting, and that could bog down the movement of heavy equipment. Putin's generals were probably anxious to get this over with before the mud got too deep.

 

[Patooka]

There is nothing to excuse. Iraq invasion was based on a lie. Yugolsavia bombing was based on a lie, NATO expansion is based on a lie too.

Spare us.

 

[steve_bank]

It is looking like we are going down a well trodden historical path to war.

We sanctioned Japan over treatment of China by an embargo on materials. We know wherte that led.

Russia invades Ukraine.
Russia is sanctioned economically.
Russia cuts off European energy supplies.
Russian economy breaks down, people go hungry.
Western economies disrupted.
Russia responds wit military force against Europe.
Field tactical nukes leading to a full scale nuclear exchange.

The book Red Storm Rising was a story that begins with extremists crippling Russian oil refineries. Fearing NATO will take advantage of Russia having no fuel for tanks and weapons, Russia attacks.

Europe is again devastated. In the end the remaining Russian military leader surrenders because he did not have the nuclear launch codes.

It comes down to whether or not Putin is actually carried away witjh power and thinks he can actually prevail and is reallyparnoid, or if he is playing brinkmanship.

It also comes down to how prepared NATO is to fight an all out war. In Afghanistan it was reported that German tropps were not physcaly fit for combat. The general reports I have seen over the last decade say NATO is not prepared. If so Putin would know that.

If Putin is rational then he and his military have done a risk reward analysis and have planned for NATO's likely responses.

WWII began with Germany invading Poland publicaly justified by a false flag incident.

 

[barbos]

There is nothing to excuse. Iraq invasion was based on a lie. Yugolsavia bombing was based on a lie, NATO expansion is based on a lie too.

Spare us.

Vietnam War was based on a lie.
Chile? Democracy anyone? to hell with a democracy, we support Pinochet.
Central America, yeah, Death Squads anyone, Iran-Contra?
Afghanistan? Freedom fighters! Muhahaha!
Saudi Arabia? Such a democracy!

 

[Patooka]

The book Red Storm Rising

was a book written by Tom Clancy masturbating about how 'merica will save the world again. It's only importance is that a Hollywood actor read the book before flying into Russia during the 80s. It has fuck all relevance with what is happening today.

Like, literally fuck all relevance. Most NATO members privately resent the United States being a member and have already revised the necessary requirements to invoke article 5.