How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Cheerful Charlie]

Pooty threatens Baltic power grab.

.....
Russia alarmed NATO allies by proposing to unilaterally redraw its border in the Baltic Sea, before withdrawing the bombshell text without offering an explanation.

The since-deleted draft decree authored by Russia’s defense ministry appeared on the government’s legal portal on Tuesday, and argued that the existing maritime border needed revising because it was established in 1985 on the basis of nautical charts now out of use.
.....

Russia mysteriously deletes threat to redraw Baltic Sea border

Defense ministry plan had sparked alarm among NATO allies.

www.politico.eu

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

And here Pooty goes again.

....
VILNIUS (Reuters) - Russian border guards have removed navigation buoys from the Estonian side of a river separating the two countries, the Baltic nation said on Thursday, adding that it would seek an explanation as well as a return of the equipment.

Some 24 out of 50 buoys recently placed on the Narva river to mark sailing routes were removed in the early hours of Thursday the Estonian police and border guard said in a statement.
....

Estonia says Russia removed navigation buoys on border river

Russian border guards have removed navigation buoys from the Estonian side of a river separating the two countries, the Baltic nation said on Thursday, adding that it would seek an explanation as well as a return of the equipment. Some 24 out of 50 buoys recently placed on the Narva river to...

www.yahoo.com

 

[DrZoidberg]

It looks unlikely that Ukraine can win without foreign boots on the ground. Russia now has a 10 - 1 manpower advantage. And a 3 - 1 artillery advantage. And Russia just keeps increasing military output, while Ukraines arms donors are getting increasingly stingy.

Russia needs to be stopped, and it doesn't seem to be happening right now. I think Western countries need to get directly involved. How likely do you think that will happen?

Right now it looks like the wests balls have shrivelled up and retracted into our bodies. Russia winning would be a disaster. That would be a free pass for Russia to keep going, as well as China starting to become more aggressive.

I don't think it looks so good right now. I'm worried about the state of the world.

A few months ago I was ridiculed for suggesting that there WILL be European troops in Ukraine.

I've been for it from day 1 of this war.

The sooner Russia is stopped the better

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I've been for it from day 1 of this war.

The sooner Russia is stopped the better

In hindsight that is the smartest thing we could have done. Having said that Ukraine will emerge a much stronger state and a good bastion against further Nazi Putinism.

 

[repoman]

I've been for it from day 1 of this war.

The sooner Russia is stopped the better

In hindsight that is the smartest thing we could have done. Having said that Ukraine will emerge a much stronger state and a good bastion against further Nazi Putinism.

Seems like there is brain rot from people excessively following talking points. In this case about Ukraine can go it alone with supplies from Europe, USA and Pakistan (massive artillery supplies) and not needing troops.

This is false, EU troops and attacks IN Russia are needed to beat Russia.

But this is all about soft peddling and frog boiling instead of being blunt and upfront. Yes they want troops in Ukraine, but they are LYING about it until they think they can do it.

 

[aupmanyav]

I was simply saying that Israel has second-strike capability, taking them out with nukes would likely be a very bad thing for whoever did it. It wasn't meant to be a comparison to any other country.

I understand. We are in the same boat. You too have your adversaries.

In hindsight that is the smartest thing we could have done. Having said that Ukraine will emerge a much stronger state and a good bastion against further Nazi Putinism.

Ukraine's primary mistake was to go with West. They disregarded Russian interests. I do not know how far the conflict will go.
I suppose there was an understanding that NATO will not expand in former USSR territories.

 

[bilby]

Ukraine's primary mistake was to go with West. They disregarded Russian interests.

Disregarding the interests of people who are interested in killing you and taking all your stuff, isn't really a mistake, though, is it?

 

[DrZoidberg]

I've been for it from day 1 of this war.

The sooner Russia is stopped the better

In hindsight that is the smartest thing we could have done. Having said that Ukraine will emerge a much stronger state and a good bastion against further Nazi Putinism.

That's not necessarily true. Everything is connected. At the start of the war Ukraine was a dysfunctional corrupt mess. It still is. If we (the west) wants Ukraine to reform we need some leverage. If the west would have put boots on the ground immediately, then there would have been no incentive for the Ukrainian elite to reform. Instead, they'd mostly just profiteered from the war. There's many examples of that. Vietnam, DR Congo, Afghanistan... many many.

We want the elites to align their interests with that of Ukraine as a whole, and that won't happen unless there's an existential crisis for Ukraine.

It was the same thing with Sweden and NATO. Sweden felt no need to join NATO until USA suddenly became reluctant to bail Ukraine out. Then suddenly Sweden realised that they cannot rely on daddy USA to bail them out and needed to join in, and pay for what we want.

It's all complicated. Waiting and letting Ukraine fight alone for a while, might actually be the best policy. Assuming Ukraine survives. But that's what we're coming down to now. Ukraine is not winning this war. They're unable to take back what they've lost, and is now crumbling. Remember last years summer offensive that went nowhere? Whatever firepower Ukraine is given, it needs to be more than that.

And Ukraine is still facing rampant corruption. A lot of the money and material that Ukraine is given, is just wasted.

I heard an interview with a British volonteer to Ukraine. He told a story where weapons weren't being distributed to the troops because they were worried the soldiers would steal them. So they broke into the weapon stores to help themselves. Stuff like this happens all the time. It's a mess.

2 days ago the head of the Ukrainian supreme court was fired for taking bribes. This is supposed to be the most impeccable guy in any liberal democracy. Whoops.

Anyway... just giving these guys money and trusting them with expensive toys is a bad idea. I think it's probably a good idea to wait with sending troops until we absolutely have to. But isn't that fast approaching?

 

[bilby]

2 days ago the head of the Ukrainian supreme court was fired for taking bribes. This is supposed to be the most impeccable guy in any liberal democracy.

It certainly wouldn't happen in the USA. When their Supreme Court Justices are taking obvious bribes, they don't get fired.

Ask Clarence Thomas.

 

[TV and credit cards]

.

I was simply saying that Israel has second-strike capability, taking them out with nukes would likely be a very bad thing for whoever did it. It wasn't meant to be a comparison to any other country.

I understand. We are in the same boat. You too have your adversaries.

In hindsight that is the smartest thing we could have done. Having said that Ukraine will emerge a much stronger state and a good bastion against further Nazi Putinism.

Ukraine's primary mistake was to go with West. They disregarded Russian interests. I do not know how far the conflict will go.
I suppose there was an understanding that NATO will not expand in former USSR territories.

What are these "Russian interests"?
I see them using other nations, other people as a buffer against an imagined aggression. I see a nation that has no hope of garnering respect for itself by its achievements so it boosts it pride by bullying its neighbors. A nation that has scared away much of its talent. A nation that has to increasingly rely on the extraction of natural resource to support its economy.

 

[ZiprHead]

And Ukraine is still facing rampant corruption. A lot of the money and material that Ukraine is given, is just wasted.

Do you have some examples of this?

 

[DrZoidberg]

And Ukraine is still facing rampant corruption. A lot of the money and material that Ukraine is given, is just wasted.

Do you have some examples of this?

You didn’t Google it, did you?

https://www.npr.org/2024/01/28/1227447442/ukraine-says-corrupt-officials-stole-40-million-meant-to-buy-arms-for-the-war#:~:text=July%202%2C%202023.-,Employees%20from%20a%20Ukrainian%20arms%20firm%20conspired%20with%20defense%20ministry,Russia%2C%20Ukraine's%20security%20service%20reported.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Supposedly Ukrainian drones knocked out a Russian over the horizon early warning radar. I don't know why they would. I don't think such a long range radar would be much concern to anything Ukraine would be launching at 300km or less.

Also, pretty cool video of ATACMS taking out a S-400/300 system.
More at The Warzone.

 

[ZiprHead]

And Ukraine is still facing rampant corruption. A lot of the money and material that Ukraine is given, is just wasted.

Do you have some examples of this?

You didn’t Google it, did you?

Of course not. What search term should I have used to find the evidence you already found?

https://www.npr.org/2024/01/28/1227447442/ukraine-says-corrupt-officials-stole-40-million-meant-to-buy-arms-for-the-war#:~:text=July%202%2C%202023.-,Employees%20from%20a%20Ukrainian%20arms%20firm%20conspired%20with%20defense%20ministry,Russia%2C%20Ukraine's%20security%20service%20reported.

Thank you.

Accoding to this report:
How much progress has Ukraine's government made against corruption?
Ukraine has made great strides against corruption since seperating from Russia and Yanukovych's Russian influences. Even after the seperation from the USSR, the Russian oligarchs were still the major corruption elements in the nation.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

How many billions and billions is Putin worth? Nah, no corruption in Putinstan, just legitimate interests. No one gets poisoned or arrested for protesting. Nah, nothing like that in Putinstan, that bastion of freedom and individual liberty.

I love how some people just have to separate the good from the perfect. Must be another fucked up religious legacy where everything is either perfect or evil.

 

[TomC]

At the start of the war Ukraine was a dysfunctional corrupt mess.

I live in the USA.

Referring to another country or people as "a dysfunctional corrupt mess" would be too hypocritical for words.
Tom

 

[barbos]

And here Pooty goes again.

....
VILNIUS (Reuters) - Russian border guards have removed navigation buoys from the Estonian side of a river separating the two countries, the Baltic nation said on Thursday, adding that it would seek an explanation as well as a return of the equipment.

Some 24 out of 50 buoys recently placed on the Narva river to mark sailing routes were removed in the early hours of Thursday the Estonian police and border guard said in a statement.
....

Estonia says Russia removed navigation buoys on border river

Russian border guards have removed navigation buoys from the Estonian side of a river separating the two countries, the Baltic nation said on Thursday, adding that it would seek an explanation as well as a return of the equipment. Some 24 out of 50 buoys recently placed on the Narva river to...

www.yahoo.com

Positions of these buoys have to be agreed (By Russia and Estonia) each year. Russia did not agree this year. I suspect it's a result of Estonia PM plans to redraw border and split Russia into many small "countries"

 

[DrZoidberg]

At the start of the war Ukraine was a dysfunctional corrupt mess.

I live in the USA.

Referring to another country or people as "a dysfunctional corrupt mess" would be too hypocritical for words.
Tom

The thing with USA, and which makes it rare, is how critical Americans are of how badly USA is working. USA is exceedingly transparent and its easy to check where money is going. The average American also seems to give a shit.

Most other countries are different.

Comparatively USA is doing way better than what Americans think it does.

 

[DrZoidberg]

And Ukraine is still facing rampant corruption. A lot of the money and material that Ukraine is given, is just wasted.

Do you have some examples of this?

You didn’t Google it, did you?

Of course not. What search term should I have used to find the evidence you already found?

https://www.npr.org/2024/01/28/1227447442/ukraine-says-corrupt-officials-stole-40-million-meant-to-buy-arms-for-the-war#:~:text=July%202%2C%202023.-,Employees%20from%20a%20Ukrainian%20arms%20firm%20conspired%20with%20defense%20ministry,Russia%2C%20Ukraine's%20security%20service%20reported.

Thank you.

Accoding to this report:
How much progress has Ukraine's government made against corruption?
Ukraine has made great strides against corruption since seperating from Russia and Yanukovych's Russian influences. Even after the seperation from the USSR, the Russian oligarchs were still the major corruption elements in the nation.

Yes, the less Russian influence in Ukraine the better for the Ukrainians. This is not news

 

[barbos]

Yes, the less Russian influence in Ukraine the better for the Ukrainians. This is not news

Crimeans vehemently disagree.
Same with people in Melitopol:
Ukrainian "complains" about russian influence in the city