How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Elixir]

The only reason Putin may not invade the whole of Ukraine now is if he thinks an even more propitious time is coming soon. Like, after his official movement of Donetsk and Lohansk borders has become ancient history like Crimea.

 

[steve_bank]

Putin appears to be in the mold of Stalin, just not as overtly brutal.

In the past Putin said the fall of the Soviet Union was the greatest tragedy of the last century, and he wants to restore the Soviet Union. Of course NATO and the west are responsible for the demise of the Soviet Union, not a corrupt system unable to provide for its people.

From a documentary he came to power essentaly by covering the corrution of his precessors, it was the common way to get picked. Be somebody who will not investigate a predecessor and protect ill gotten assets. It is by chane he came to power, not skill.

 

[barbos]

I think barbos is conflicted. He obviously prefers the benefits of western style democracy but is stuck defending Russian aggression and dictatorship because that's where he is. I can understand that. There's also the harsh reality that those who strongly and openly oppose the Putin regime in Russia risk poisoning, imprisonment, death, etc. So again, I can understand his position. Be loyal to the mob and live.

NATO is a lesser issue within the larger conflict that is democracy and personal freedom vs dictatorship and state control. To understand what's going on is to look past the NATO distraction. NATO only exists because of that fundamental conflict between democracy and totalitarianism.

So you are basically saying you have no substantive argument other than weird conspiracy explaining my motivation for doing what I am doing.
What about Katrina vanden Heuvel? What is her motivation? is she in danger to be imprisoned? What about Stephen F. Cohen? What about Henry Kissinger?
You can't call Kissinger a commie, he was a total cold war warier.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Even though this has been talked about for some time, I am still surprised it's happening. I didn't think Putin had the balls to do this out in the open with no good excuse. If I had to draw an historical analogy, it'd be to Hitler expanding into previous German territories just prior to WW2 and now it's Putin expanding into previous USSR soviets.

 

[skepticalbip]

Even though this has been talked about for some time, I am still surprised it's happening. I didn't think Putin had the balls to do this out in the open with no good excuse. If I had to draw an historical analogy, it'd be to Hitler expanding into previous German territories just prior to WW2 and now it's Putin expanding into previous USSR soviets.

Why would you think that? Even after the invasion into and annexation of Georgia and the Caucus? It is known that he wants to rebuild the 'glory' of the old Soviet and NATO has clearly signaled that they will not intervene. Germany's 'warning' was only sending a couple thousand helmets to the Ukraine. Even Biden has offered a green flag that 'a little incursion into Ukraine' would be acceptable. It reminds me a bit of Neville Chamberlain.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Even though this has been talked about for some time, I am still surprised it's happening. I didn't think Putin had the balls to do this out in the open with no good excuse. If I had to draw an historical analogy, it'd be to Hitler expanding into previous German territories just prior to WW2 and now it's Putin expanding into previous USSR soviets.

Why would you think that? It is known that he wants to rebuild the 'glory' of the old Soviet and NATO has clearly signaled that they will not intervene. Germany's 'warning' was only sending a couple thousand helmets to the Ukraine. Even Biden has offered a green flag that 'a little incursion into Ukraine' would be acceptable.

News tends to sensationalize things and so I thought it'd calm down. Why on earth are you asking me to justify past thinking I said is wrong? There seems to be no point to look back at that. As far as a green flag, I don't think sanctions are a green flag. Interestingly, I reviewed your previous post and you also saw comparison to Hitler.

 

[steve_bank]

Even though this has been talked about for some time, I am still surprised it's happening. I didn't think Putin had the balls to do this out in the open with no good excuse. If I had to draw an historical analogy, it'd be to Hitler expanding into previous German territories just prior to WW2 and now it's Putin expanding into previous USSR soviets.

Then I would say you are not paying attention to the regional politics over the last 20 -30 years. Putin is acting just like the Soviets did, maintain forced alliance by military intimidation and puppet regimes. As in Poland before the collapse. Solidity and the Gdansk ship yard. I remember the video of the Russian tanks in Poland.

Solidarity (Polish trade union) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Russia could not and would not tolerate a Georgia that was controlling corruption, becoming democratic, and a growing economy with foreign investment independent from Russia.

It all began when the EU lured Ukraine away from the Russian Federation.

 

[zorq]

Because they know Russia is not going to invade.

Really, now. Tell me more. Seriously. I was playing around in reddit's r/russia yesterday. (I got instantly banned for suggesting that more trustworthy information was available elsewhere) and this was the ridiculous claim was all over the place. Yesterday! They were ALL insisting that Russia would never invade Ukraine.

But today, they are super excited for Russian soldiers to help the rebel "republics." Who was this lie for? Who believed it? Barbos, did you believe it? Did you really think Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine? Why? Were you not paying attention? Is the propaganda THAT good?

 

[Axulus]

Because they know Russia is not going to invade.

Really, now. Tell me more. Seriously. I was playing around in reddit's r/russia yesterday. (I got instantly banned for suggesting that more trustworthy information was available elsewhere) and this was the ridiculous claim was all over the place. Yesterday! They were ALL insisting that Russia would never invade Ukraine.

But today, they are super excited for Russian soldiers to help the rebel "republics." Who was this lie for? Who believed it? Barbos, did you believe it? Did you really think Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine? Why? Were you not paying attention? Is the propaganda THAT good?

He is going to move the goal post and either claim this is not an invasion (sending in troops for "defense") and/or these rebel held "republics" are not part of Ukraine.

 

[Axulus]

Ukraine's big blunder was giving up nukes. You can be sure no country will ever make that mistake again, and more will likely try to develop them.

 

[barbos]

It's so weird to hear now that US and their Kiev puppets suddenly care about Minsk Accords. Give me a break.

The whole thing looks like stage performance. Kiev and US decided to get rid of that land they can't really control. In exchange they can consolidate what they can control and cry wolf and sanction Russia.

 

[barbos]

Ukraine's big blunder was giving up nukes. You can be sure no country will ever make that mistake again, and more will likely try to develop them.

You realize that these nukes would have been sold in the Middle East?
And Ukraine did actually keep some of the weapons they could not afford to keep.
Some of it they managed to sell ..... to Russia . To some of it Russia said "No thanks, keep it" It was scrapped. Some was sold to China.

 

[zorq]

Ukraine ditched the nukes as part of a guarantee of security from some major powers and stipulated in the  Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances.

1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

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2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

3. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

4. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.

5. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm, in the case of Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a State in association or alliance with a nuclear-weapon State.

6. Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning these commitments.

Clearly some of these signatories were operating in bad faith.

 

[Axulus]

It's so weird to hear now that US and their Kiev puppets suddenly care about Minsk Accords. Give me a break.

The whole thing looks like stage performance. Kiev and US decided to get rid of that land they can't really control. In exchange they can consolidate what they can control and cry wolf and sanction Russia.

Yep, the only good use for a signed agreement with Russia is use as toilet paper. No one should care about toilet paper unless one has just recently taken a shit.

 

[barbos]

It's so weird to hear now that US and their Kiev puppets suddenly care about Minsk Accords. Give me a break.

The whole thing looks like stage performance. Kiev and US decided to get rid of that land they can't really control. In exchange they can consolidate what they can control and cry wolf and sanction Russia.

Yep, the only good use for a signed agreement with Russia is use as toilet paper. No one should care about toilet paper unless one has just recently taken a shit.

Give me a break, a week ago or so president of Ukraine publicly trashed Minsk Accords to which Putin famously made a "sexist" (it was not) joke about it.
Ukraine have never tried to comply with these agreements and now all of a sudden they care.

Now, to be fair, I understand why Ukraine did not like Minsk Accords, but they signed it.

 

[lpetrich]

 List of states with limited recognition - nations that are recognized only by some nations -  List of historical unrecognized states and dependencies

Several of them are from splits: Israel - Palestine, Communist China - Taiwan, S Korea - N Korea. The rest are various breakaway territories:

• Cyprus: N Cyprus
• Morocco: Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic
• Serbia: Kosovo
• Azerbaijan: Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) (ethnic Armenian)
• Somalia: Somaliland
• Eurasian Georgia: Abkhazia, South Ossetia
• Ukraine: Donetsk, Luhansk People's Republics
• Moldova: Transnistria

I took that article's listing of which of these breakaway nations recognize which, and I found these fully-connected cliques:

• South Ossetia - Transnistria - Artsakh - Abkhazia
• South Ossetia - SADR
• Donetsk - Luhansk

With one-way recognition from SO to D-L.

Which UN member states recognize what:

• The SADR: 41 --  International recognition of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic - mostly in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia
• South Ossetia: (Russia, Syria, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Nauru -- (former) Tuvalu
• Abkhazia: Russia, Syria, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Nauru -- (former) Tuvalu, Vanuatu
• Donetsk, Luhansk -- Russia
• Artsakh, Transnistria: none

 

[fromderinside]

It's so weird to hear now that US and their Kiev puppets suddenly care about Minsk Accords. Give me a break.

The whole thing looks like stage performance. Kiev and US decided to get rid of that land they can't really control. In exchange they can consolidate what they can control and cry wolf and sanction Russia.

Yep, the only good use for a signed agreement with Russia is use as toilet paper. No one should care about toilet paper unless one has just recently taken a shit.

Give me a break, a week ago or so president of Ukraine publicly trashed Minsk Accords to which Putin famously made a "sexist" (it was not) joke about it.
Ukraine have never tried to comply with these agreements and now all of a sudden they care.

Now, to be fair, I understand why Ukraine did not like Minsk Accords, but they signed it.

Didn't help did it. Russia under Putin is going to do what Putin wants to do. International law? F**k off.

 

[Hermit]

Seriously, the likely near term outcome will Putin staging a “that wasn’t an invasion” after he invades ans occupies Eastern Ukraine.
Donetsk and Luhansk will be conceded to Russia, and any complaint about that land grab will be spun as Russia "defending its own (planted separatist) people". Taking over the rest of Ukraine can be done in similar stages, and The Dreaded West will react at each turn with all the fight and fury they showed after Pootey grabbed Crimea and Northern Georgia.
Meanwhile, back at home, those patriotic Republicans will level shame at those Democrats sponsoring Ukrainian insurgents who are terrorizing the Russian people...
At this rate, Russia will be nibbling away at US territories and perhaps States, with the full blessing of the Republican Autocracy established in 2024....

Salami tactics

 

[zorq]

Give me a break, a week ago or so president of Ukraine publicly trashed Minsk Accords to which Putin famously made a "sexist" (it was not) joke about it.
Ukraine have never tried to comply with these agreements and now all of a sudden they care.

Now, to be fair, I understand why Ukraine did not like Minsk Accords, but they signed it.

LOL, Russia never tried to comply with these agreements. Article 10 of Minsk and article 2 of Minsk II demanded that all foreign troops leave the area. Here's looking at you Russia. Did Russia ever leave? Nope.

 

[barbos]

Give me a break, a week ago or so president of Ukraine publicly trashed Minsk Accords to which Putin famously made a "sexist" (it was not) joke about it.
Ukraine have never tried to comply with these agreements and now all of a sudden they care.

Now, to be fair, I understand why Ukraine did not like Minsk Accords, but they signed it.

LOL, Russia never tried to comply with these agreements. Article 10 of Minsk II demanded that all foreign troops leave the area. Here's looking at you Russia. Did Russia ever leave? Nope.

Correct. And according to Russia there are no russian troops there. You can argue with that but that's their position. What Ukraine demands is disarmament of all forces in the region before they even start talking with the rebels. That demand is not part of the agreement. That's a formal excuse to not comply with Minsk Accords. Ukrainians know that rebels are not stupid to do that.
And the reason why Ukraine does not like these accords is because they, for all intents and purposes, give Eastern Ukraine independence. That is all Eastern Ukraine not just the place which is under rebels control. So I understand Ukraine's desire to get rid of it.

Now that being said, Minsk Accords are still in the effect. Nothing really happened. Russia is not part of these accords, rebels and Ukraine are. So US proclamations that Russia just tore these agreements is a lie. Russian forces have not even entered these regions. And even when they do it does not mean violation, it's temporary peacekeeping duties. So don't celebrate killing Minsk Accords yet.