How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Tigers!]

Ukraine Takes Down Third River Bridge, Cuts Off Russian Forces

The all-weather span across the Seym River was the last road route out of a growing Kyiv-controlled salient in the Kursk region, but it’s not clear how many Russian troops are now trapped.

www.kyivpost.com

All three bridges are down, cutting off the Kursk area from Russian reinforcements. There may be Russian soldiers trapped within.
View attachment 47316
Map shows Ukrainian controlled + cutoff area.

Is the area Ukraine is occupying close enough to worry the Russians in the Luhansk Oblast i.e being attacked from the north or northeast?

 

[bilby]

Ukraine Takes Down Third River Bridge, Cuts Off Russian Forces

The all-weather span across the Seym River was the last road route out of a growing Kyiv-controlled salient in the Kursk region, but it’s not clear how many Russian troops are now trapped.

www.kyivpost.com

All three bridges are down, cutting off the Kursk area from Russian reinforcements. There may be Russian soldiers trapped within.
View attachment 47316
Map shows Ukrainian controlled + cutoff area.

Is the area Ukraine is occupying close enough to worry the Russians in the Luhansk Oblast i.e being attacked from the north or northeast?

Not yet...

 

[aupmanyav]

It was not a safe bet for Ukranians dissatisfied the status quo of corruption and Russian puppethood.

Oh, with Poroshenko and Zelensky, all corruption ended? Ukraine became a NATO puppet and is fighting a war for them.
Did I mention that Modi is meeting Zelensky on August 23? He will also go to Poland.

 

[aupmanyav]

So it's projection--India has done bad things (I wasn't aware of Bangladesh, but your history in Sri Lanka is very bad) so you think others are doing bad things also.

The Ukrainian "rebellion" was kicking out Russia's puppet. The idea that Russia would react militarily to that only makes sense if you consider Ukraine to never have had the right of self determination.

You're agreeing with the abuser (Russia) when they said look what you made me do (invade Ukraine for defying their control.) Sounds exactly like a scaled-up version of domestic abuse.

India did not intercede in Sri Lanka, though it angered the Indian Tamil population. We strived for peace between the two factions, Tamils and Sinhala speakers, but were not successful.
What we did in Bangladesh was in accordance with the wishes of the people, they wanted freedom from Pakistan as they were being discriminated against. Sheikh Mujib was not given Premiership even when he had a majority in Pakistan Assembly. And then Pakistan army indulged in wholesale loot, rape and murder (of the majority Muslims). It was bad for Pakistan and good for Bangladesh.
In Sikkim, there are 382,000 Gorkha people and 25,000 indigenous Lepcha people. The Gorkha preferred democratic Indian rule over the indigenous Lepcha kingly rule (Check the figures with Google Sarch).
Did we do anything wrong?

Ukraine had all the right to make decisions but their decision brought a war to Ukraine. It was not a wise decision. Arrogance does not work in politics.

Domestic abuse has two actors. Ukrainian abuse had three actors. Ukraine, Russia and NATO.

 

[Henry-Finland]

So Ukraine does not have any culture?

 

[TV and credit cards]

Ukraine Takes Down Third River Bridge, Cuts Off Russian Forces

The all-weather span across the Seym River was the last road route out of a growing Kyiv-controlled salient in the Kursk region, but it’s not clear how many Russian troops are now trapped.

www.kyivpost.com

All three bridges are down, cutting off the Kursk area from Russian reinforcements. There may be Russian soldiers trapped within.
View attachment 47316
Map shows Ukrainian controlled + cutoff area.

Is the area Ukraine is occupying close enough to worry the Russians in the Luhansk Oblast i.e being attacked from the north or northeast?

Not yet...

Yeah. The furthest south they are is not quite Belitsa which is still 124km north of Belgorod which is another 418km north of Luhansk.
And who knows what Ukraine may or may not have in reserve to press the fight from the Kursk region south or how much they can disrupt Russian supply lines.

In other news:
Putin is placing more trusted partners in positions of power at the expense of those with expertise indicating Putin is more concerned with maintaining his regime. This Kursk incursion like the Prigozhin march on Moscow draws cracks Putin's strongman facade and is humiliating for him. So there's that. We shouldn't dismiss this aspect of the war in Ukraine. From an attritional standpoint on the battlefield, things may look to be going well for Putin while behind the scene, Putin's power structure may be falling apart.

 

[Henry-Finland]

 

[steve_bank]

Ukraine is using military strategy. NATO has been training Ukrainian NCOs and offers for some time..

Train the sergeants who train the troops.

I keep thinking back to the initial invasion. A headlong convoy with no coordinated air support and uncorrected flanks.

Ukarine is acting strategically, at least within their resources.

 

[Henry-Finland]

 

[Henry-Finland]

Ukraine Is Encircling Russian Forces in Kursk. How Will Moscow Respond?​

- The Russian forces are encircled. Some say that it is 700 men strong, and some say that it is up to 3.000 men.
- The bridges over the river are destroyed. The Russians will probably try to build more pontoon bridges. Two of them already destroyed plus the tree earlier bridges.
Also: The river is not very broad so those who can swim; can rescue themselves.
- The yellow line is the Russian-Ukrainian border.
The Ukrainians can now attack from east, west and south.




When the pocket is cleared (1-3 weeks?):
- The Ukrainians do not need more soldiers than before the attack two weeks ago. This is because the border length will be the same as before. It only shifts to the north some 20-30 km:s.
- The Ukrainians are still also fighting eastward in order to get better natural borders and create a buffer between Russia and Ukraine.

What do you think?
-------------------------------------
"Ukraine is on the verge of de facto encircling hundreds of Russian soldiers as part of its new offensive. This video explores how Ukraine shaped the situation, what it has done to limit Russia's retreat options, and what Moscow must consider in formulating a response."
0:00 Introduction
0:26 Ukraine's Encirclement Strategy
2:11 A Comparison to Kherson, 2022
4:24 How Kursk Is Different from Kherson
6:23 The Upcoming Pontoon Battle
7:26 Will the Encircled Soldiers Fight Back?
10:27 How Ukraine Can Save on Manpower
12:40 What Did He Do to Deserve This?

 

[Henry-Finland]

The latest...

ENCIRCLED: 2nd Pocket in Kursk admitted, Attacks on the SW Pocket!​

 

[Harry Bosch]

It was not a safe bet for Ukranians dissatisfied the status quo of corruption and Russian puppethood.

Oh, with Poroshenko and Zelensky, all corruption ended? Ukraine became a NATO puppet and is fighting a war for them.
Did I mention that Modi is meeting Zelensky on August 23? He will also go to Poland.

Amigo: You keep saying that Ukraine is a nato puppet. Why? Is it your view that if a country receives weapons, then it is a puppet?

 

[Henry-Finland]

It seems to me that the Ukrainians are building one more pocket using the northern part of the same river.
When does the Russians learn?


The map is from here:

 

[steve_bank]

As has been said several times, NATO is not a political origination. If one is attacked all others are obligated to respond. When activated it has a unfixed command.

NATO is not a political organization that can make decisions or have puppets.

One thing I learned on the forum is groupss of people have no idea how the western systems work, and what free speech and civil rights mean.

Back when Jay Leno was still on TV he showed a gaudy picture of an Indian building as part of mocking an American political figure. It turned out it was a Hindu shrine. India was outraged. An Indian minister complained to Obama demanding he personally take action. I forget the exact words, he said something like they do not understands how our government works.

No concept of free speech as we have it. No sacred cows, so to speak.

 

[Henry-Finland]

Satellite Imagery Shows Smoke from the Proletarsky, Rostov Oil Depot Fire Extends 105 Kilometers​

20.8.2024
Smoke from a fire started by drones at the Proletarsky oil depot extends 105 kilometers on satellite imagery.



And still burning...


Here:

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

It was not a safe bet for Ukranians dissatisfied the status quo of corruption and Russian puppethood.

Oh, with Poroshenko and Zelensky, all corruption ended? Ukraine became a NATO puppet and is fighting a war for them.
Did I mention that Modi is meeting Zelensky on August 23? He will also go to Poland.

Amigo: You keep saying that Ukraine is a nato puppet. Why? Is it your view that if a country receives weapons, then it is a puppet?

Aup is like Russian Hitler, making claims and threats he cannot back up.

Ukraine has demonstrated repeatedly that all those red lines are baloney. Nothing happens except that Russian Hitler lobs more bombs at Ukrainian schools and hospitals and shopping centers. That's bad but it demonstrates that any Ruski threats of escalation are empty.

 

[Henry-Finland]

Russian state TV discusses Kursk and the DNC convention​

(English subs)



P.S. Russian propagandists do not like maps.

 

[Henry-Finland]

T.G.G. Moogly wrote:
"Ukraine has demonstrated repeatedly that all those red lines are baloney."

About red lines as someone told: "They have not found the second biggest child hospital yet!"

Just wait, they might find some amusement park for children....

 

[Tigers!]

Ukraine Takes Down Third River Bridge, Cuts Off Russian Forces

The all-weather span across the Seym River was the last road route out of a growing Kyiv-controlled salient in the Kursk region, but it’s not clear how many Russian troops are now trapped.

www.kyivpost.com

All three bridges are down, cutting off the Kursk area from Russian reinforcements. There may be Russian soldiers trapped within.
View attachment 47316
Map shows Ukrainian controlled + cutoff area.

Is the area Ukraine is occupying close enough to worry the Russians in the Luhansk Oblast i.e being attacked from the north or northeast?

Not yet...

Yeah. The furthest south they are is not quite Belitsa which is still 124km north of Belgorod which is another 418km north of Luhansk.
And who knows what Ukraine may or may not have in reserve to press the fight from the Kursk region south or how much they can disrupt Russian supply lines.

In other news:
Putin is placing more trusted partners in positions of power at the expense of those with expertise indicating Putin is more concerned with maintaining his regime. This Kursk incursion like the Prigozhin march on Moscow draws cracks Putin's strongman facade and is humiliating for him. So there's that. We shouldn't dismiss this aspect of the war in Ukraine. From an attritional standpoint on the battlefield, things may look to be going well for Putin while behind the scene, Putin's power structure may be falling apart.

In hindsight it is a pity that Prigozhin did not throw his lot in with Ukraine and co-ordinated his march with Ukraine. He racing to Moscow and Ukraine provided the solid base. Could have had a vastly different result/

 

[bilby]

Ukraine has demonstrated repeatedly that all those red lines are baloney. Nothing happens except that Russian Hitler lobs more bombs at Ukrainian schools and hospitals and shopping centers. That's bad but it demonstrates that any Ruski threats of escalation are empty.

Nuclear weapons, I suspect, will have much the same role in WWIII that Mustard Gas had in WWII - everyone is so scared by the threat that nobody will use it, to escape retaliation in kind.

Putin knows that any use of nukes would be signing his own death warrant.