How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Rhea]

I feel like that sounds like some really broad claims and not fully supported.
Whenever someone says, “It’s at its peak right now” I can only wonder how they know the future?

 

[pood]

Will Russian Economic Recover After This Blow?​

A Kursk Update!​

About the war economy:
It's started shrinking right now it's at its peak going down but the other economy the Civil economy, oh my gosh, there's so many problems with that. So basically the two results are Russian economy is shrinking and it will be shrinking for a long very long time it's not going to recover. I would say for generations, generations on Russian people are becoming poorer and poorer.
And that's what the Russian economy is looking like.

I hope all this stuff is true, but I’ve no idea of the credibility of these sources.

 

[steve_bank]

There is both Russian and Ukrainian propaganda.

Here in Seattle on broadcast digital TV I get ABC,CBS, NBC,BBC, France 24, DW, NHK from Japan, and an independent American Scripps News. I don't watch or use CNN news, it has gone over to tabloid journalism.


I go by the consensus on the global platforms I watch. Hard to imagine a conspiracy across all platforms to present false news.

Given what has been demonstrated in the news on how online AI can quickly create fake audio and video I would not trust any 'revealed secret audio' and the like.

From reporting over moths while there are problems in Russia the economy is not collapsing. Putin has gotten around sanctions and is selling oil. Kike China and Japan Russia has a growing older population and a shrinking population of young workers.

The Russian Federation has been going positive and negative. One of issues s sated by Putin way back when Ukraine decided to allign with EU was the need to make Ukarne economcally part of the Russian Federation.

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

 

[Henry-Finland]

Will Russian Economic Recover After This Blow?​

A Kursk Update!​

About the war economy:
It's started shrinking right now it's at its peak going down but the other economy the Civil economy, oh my gosh, there's so many problems with that. So basically the two results are Russian economy is shrinking and it will be shrinking for a long very long time it's not going to recover. I would say for generations, generations on Russian people are becoming poorer and poorer.
And that's what the Russian economy is looking like.

I hope all this stuff is true, but I’ve no idea of the credibility of these sources.

Konstantin who made the video above is a Russian economist. He can follow Russian economy, even if he now lives in one of the -stans (Tatarstan?)
My own thoughts goes like this:
- Russia's growth of BNP is officially something like 2-3% according to Moscow numbers.
- Russia's growth depends on the war industry, which has grown (Russian numbers) by 17%. This means that the normal "normal industry" has shrunk. There is not enough of workforce and they can not find enough different parts so that the machinery of their industry can run smoothly and also problems with the production of goods that the industry should produce. It is the sanctions, the banking problems when they want to export and so on.

- So let's look at the BNP: If a Russian guy build a house the BNP goes up and if it burns down - that does not affect the BNP. He builds a new house and again the house burns down.

Let us think that some 5 million people are working in the war industry. BNP goes up. But when the result of their work explodes, burns or whatever type of destruction happens to it - that does not affect the BNP.
To make this clearer; let us think that 5 million people builds houses and then burns them down. What happens: The politicians tells how much the BNP has gone up, and how good politicians they are "in these hard times".

Two things are guaranteed: The people will pay and the war industry is a burden for years to come. The best example of this is/was the good old USSR: Weapon was produced as the mothers had a shortage of simple kettles.

So should not the same happen to USA?
NO!! Because USA is selling (Lend & Lease or something in these lines) old stuff to e.g. Ukraine. Stuff that it does not need anymore from the 80ties and 90ties.
Like this: Congress "gives" or lends money 10 billion. 10 billion of stuff that the army does not need anymore is sold to Ukraine and Pentagon gets the money. Pentagon buys new stuff from American factories - with that money for the US Army.
Brilliant! The money that Congress "gave" to the Ukrainian military never left USA!
And the politicians can brag about how many new work opportunities they created. And the workers pay taxes - and The Apparatus can throw more tax money around like confetti (to their friends and partners).

And the really good business goes like this:
- US war product manufacturers can test their products in a real war => better weapon systems => More weapon systems exported abroad - more money for everyone, mostly to the confetti guys.

There was a global military expo last winter. According to the newspapers, Russia did not get even one single contract. But I am sure that USA had more potential buyers than ever.

War is a business, but not totally bad. It is even good and needed as the (almost) free world fights against nazis and dictators.

(My personal views on this subject. I am sure that you all have other views on this but let's concentrate on thinking how we will ____________ different dictators and get peace.)

 

[Henry-Finland]

There is both Russian and Ukrainian propaganda.

Here in Seattle on broadcast digital TV I get ABC,CBS, NBC,BBC, France 24, DW, NHK from Japan, and an independent American Scripps News. I don't watch or use CNN news, it has gone over to tabloid journalism.


I go by the consensus on the global platforms I watch. Hard to imagine a conspiracy across all platforms to present false news.

Given what has been demonstrated in the news on how online AI can quickly create fake audio and video I would not trust any 'revealed secret audio' and the like.

From reporting over moths while there are problems in Russia the economy is not collapsing. Putin has gotten around sanctions and is selling oil. Kike China and Japan Russia has a growing older population and a shrinking population of young workers.

The Russian Federation has been going positive and negative. One of issues s sated by Putin way back when Ukraine decided to allign with EU was the need to make Ukarne economcally part of the Russian Federation.

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

Even Elvira Nabiullina gave a very dark forecast some months ago. There were speculations about her 'future after her speech', but the fact is, that not even Putin can do anything to the only person who works properly, on the top of the Russian power pyramid.

Her bio:

Elvira Nabiullina - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Tigers!]

They only found a playground and a kiosk for children:

View attachment 47359T

The windmill in front is actually a steerable radar array. That is why the Russkies targeted it. Those cunning Ukrainians.

 

[Tigers!]

Last night I was watching a doco on Operation Citadel. Its rather depressing to recognise some of the towns and villages as being fought over again 80 years later.

 

[steve_bank]

Last night I was watching a doco on Operation Citadel. Its rather depressing to recognise some of the towns and villages as being fought over again 80 years later.

I was wondering if somebody would make the connection.

 

[Tigers!]

Last night I was watching a doco on Operation Citadel. Its rather depressing to recognise some of the towns and villages as being fought over again 80 years later.

I was wondering if somebody would make the connection.

You are welcome. Is there a prize for being first (apart from your undying love and affection)?

 

[steve_bank]

There is both Russian and Ukrainian propaganda.

Here in Seattle on broadcast digital TV I get ABC,CBS, NBC,BBC, France 24, DW, NHK from Japan, and an independent American Scripps News. I don't watch or use CNN news, it has gone over to tabloid journalism.


I go by the consensus on the global platforms I watch. Hard to imagine a conspiracy across all platforms to present false news.

Given what has been demonstrated in the news on how online AI can quickly create fake audio and video I would not trust any 'revealed secret audio' and the like.

From reporting over moths while there are problems in Russia the economy is not collapsing. Putin has gotten around sanctions and is selling oil. Kike China and Japan Russia has a growing older population and a shrinking population of young workers.

The Russian Federation has been going positive and negative. One of issues s sated by Putin way back when Ukraine decided to allign with EU was the need to make Ukarne economcally part of the Russian Federation.

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

Even Elvira Nabiullina gave a very dark forecast some months ago. There were speculations about her 'future after her speech', but the fact is, that not even Putin can do anything to the only person who works properly, on the top of the Russian power pyramid.

Her bio:

Elvira Nabiullina - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Your posts can have the look and feel of propaganda.

I go by what mainstream western economists say on the Russian economy.

Videos making claims that can not be verified inside Russia by independent reports whether the claims are pro or anti Russian are suspect.

From reporting and demonstration all an online AI needs s is a sample of a voice and some video to create very believable fake video. It has been demonstrated in news reports.

It can take a professional to verify.

 

[Elixir]

Some things are hard to fake.

The current year-over-year inflation rate in Russia as of July 2024 is 9.13%.

Sources
[1] Russia Inflation Rate: Outlook & Data - FocusEconomics https://www.focus-economics.com/country-indicator/russia/inflation/
[2] Russia Inflation Rate 1960-2024 | MacroTrends https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/RUS/russia/inflation-rate-cpi
[3] Inflation Rate in Russia, 2024 - StatBureau https://www.statbureau.org/en/russia/inflation
[4] Russia Core Inflation Rate - Trading Economics https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/core-inflation-rate
[5] Monthly inflation rate in Russia 2022-2024 - Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/276323/monthly-inflation-rate-in-russia/
[6] Bank of Russia increases the key rate by 200 bp to 18.00% p.a. https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/
[7] Russia seen hiking rates by 200 bps to 18% in July as inflation ... https://www.reuters.com/markets/rat...00-bps-18-july-inflation-quickens-2024-07-02/
[8] Inflation rate in Russia 2029 - Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/271376/inflation-rate-in-russia/

 

[steve_bank]

This is more in line with economic reporting I heard over the last few months. Sanctions have had little effect on the Russian economy, if anything it forced Russia to adapt and change.

Despite war and sanctions, Russia becomes a high-income economy

Despite Western sanctions over the Ukraine war, Russia has transitioned from an upper-middle to a high-income economy, according to the World Bank's latest rankings. Factors such as increased military activity, a rebound in trade and construction, and growth in the financial sector contributed...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

Russia to grow faster than all advanced economies says IMF

The IMF estimates Russia's economy will grow faster than the likes of the US, UK and Germany this year.

www.bbc.com

An influential global body has forecast Russia's economy will grow faster than all of the world's advanced economies, including the US, this year.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Russia to grow 3.2% this year, significantly more than the UK, France and Germany.

Oil exports have "held steady" and government spending has "remained high" contributing to growth, the IMF said.

Global inflation. Russia is high but it does not appear doom and gloom..

Inflation Rate - Countries - List

This page displays a table with actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, statistics and historical data charts for - Inflation Rate. This page provides values for Inflation Rate reported in several countries. The table has current values for Inflation Rate, previous releases, historical...

tradingeconomics.com

 

[bilby]

War economies are usually high growth economies.

The problem is avoiding inflation, which is typically achieved by pushing up interest rates. But both high interest rates and high inflation are causes of hardship for the ordinary citizens.

Unemployment is likely to increase outside the war production sector; That can be solved by recruiting the unemployed into the military (whether directly as soldiers, or indirectly as munitions workers etc.).

But as imports and domestic non-war related production both plummet, the citizens are left with little to buy, even if their money hasn't inflated into worthlessness, or been swallowed up in interest payments.

A hungry population won't support the war for long. Nor will a population whose children have been sent to the battlefront; Unless they feel a genuine desire for victory at the cost of personal sacrifice.

GDP growth in Russia may be strong, but in a war economy that's neither unexpected, nor necessarily a positive indicator. Growth due to productive activity that builds infrastructure, and that supplies goods and services to the broad population, is good. Growth due to the government spending a lot of money on ammunition and materiel that just goes up in smoke, only to be replaced over and over again? That's not so good.

 

[barbos]

Also, Barbos, how do you like the way Ukraine is kicking Russian ass in Kursk? You’ve been predicting how the war wouuld go for two years, but you never mentioned this would happen! Is it all part of some grand Russian strategy, to get Russian ass kicked in Kursk?

First of all, they are not kicking our ass. Their ass is being kicked and I like it.
Serious Western commentators are starting to wonder if this whole thing was a brilliant russian trap.
Russian lured nazis into essentially a desert where they are being recycled into dirt with relative ease.
Meanwhile ukro-wehrmacht forces in Donbass are refusing to fight, because there is simply no people left.
Some were sent to Kursk, some dead.
Why else russians demine the border in Kursk without having any forces to go into purported invasion?
It looks more and more like a trap.

 

[bilby]

Serious Western commentators

Name them.

Or be ignored.

You long since abdicated any right to be believed without evidence.

 

[barbos]

GDP growth in Russia may be strong, but in a war economy that's neither unexpected

True, but it's not the main reason for the growth.The main reason apparently is the fact that oil/gas money are no longer being syphoned to the West. My anecdotal observation confirms that. I noticed sudden increase in road and infrastructure work everywhere. Looks like someone got money to spend on that.

 

[barbos]

Serious Western commentators

Name them.

former US marine, forgot his name. MSM are too, not too fond of the Kursk debacle
But you do you, keep believing that Kursk Invasion is brilliant military move on the part of Ukro-Churchill-Napoleon

 

[barbos]

Meanwhile MSM is starting to prepare to eventual collapse of Nazi invasion into Kursk Oblast.
Number of publications stating that it was stupid and irresponsible.

It probably was done to disrupt you and has been wildly successful. And it's showing how gutted Russian defenses are.

Congratulations, you just admitted that not only your government engaged in war against Russia but your media is doing the same, which is not really a news since it is controlled by the same people as your "government"

The U.S. has not engaged in war against Russia, but rather Russia is in this mess because it invaded a sovereign country under the direction of the Nazi dictator in the Kremlin.

The news media in the U.S. is not controlled by the government or by the same people in the government because the media here are privately owned and under protection of the First Amendment, unlike in your wretched shit hole of a country.

All of this has been said before, of course, but it’s good to clarify matters from time to time.

Again, if you reply to me, I won’t be replying to your replies. I’ve no desire to engage in a phony “dialogue” with you.

How naive you are.

 

[steve_bank]

Of course, and the attempt to seize Kyiv and the Russian route leaving food, tanks, ammunition, and guns behind was all part of the master plan.

Leading up to two years and Russia still has not accomplished anything.

Putin must be thinking of political way out that will not cost him his position and power.

Putin tore up the agreement that guaranteed Ukrainian independence. The problem for Putin is no one will trust him to keep to any agreement.

I see an endless cycle of Russia claiming violations and border skirmishes. Unless Ukraine joins NATO so any attack on Ukraine brings the threat of a NATO response.

 

[barbos]

Leading up to two years and Russia still has not accomplished anything.

I disagree, Kiev regime is ready to fall. Global Majority is more less united in their moral support of Russia.
Economy is good. What else? NATO is on the ropes.