How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[barbos]

you didn't deny Ukraine is a nation.

To be fair I did not confirm it either. When Putin says that current Ukraine is a product of superficial and voluntaristic actions over long history he is 120% right.

Lots of conflicts in the world happens because of that. Middle East, Armenia-Azerbajdhan, Balkans to some degree too.

 

[Harry Bosch]

From yesterday: Trump Refers to Russian Aggression Toward Ukraine as ‘Genius’ - The New York Times

As President Biden announced sanctions against Russia and warned of more if President Vladimir V. Putin did not withdraw his forces from Ukraine, former President Donald J. Trump on Tuesday praised Mr. Putin’s aggression as “genius” and called the Russian leader “very savvy” for describing the troops aligned on the Ukrainian border as peacekeepers.

...
Weeks after taking office, Mr. Trump brushed aside Mr. Putin’s human rights transgressions during an interview with Bill O’Reilly, then of Fox News.

“You got a lot of killers,” he said. “What, you think our country’s so innocent?”

...
In a statement released Tuesday morning, Mr. Trump said the Russian aggression toward Ukraine would not have happened if he were still president.

During the radio interview, Mr. Trump said he and Mr. Putin had discussed a potential invasion of Ukraine when Mr. Trump was in the White House. “I knew that he always wanted Ukraine. I used to talk to him about it,” Mr. Trump said. “I said, ‘You can’t do it. You’re not going to do it.’ But I could see that he wanted it. I used to ask him. We used to talk about it at length.”

Full Interview: President Trump with C&B from Mar-a-Lago

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, what went wrong was a rigged election and what went wrong is a candidate that shouldn’t be there and a man that has no concept of what he’s doing. I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, “This is genius.” Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine — of Ukraine. Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful.

So, Putin is now saying, “It’s independent,” a large section of Ukraine. I said, “How smart is that?” And he’s gonna go in and be a peacekeeper. That’s strongest peace force… We could use that on our southern border. That’s the strongest peace force I’ve ever seen. There were more army tanks than I’ve ever seen. They’re gonna keep peace all right. No, but think of it. Here’s a guy who’s very savvy… I know him very well. Very, very well.

By the way, this never would have happened with us. Had I been in office, not even thinkable. This would never have happened. But here’s a guy that says, you know, “I’m gonna declare a big portion of Ukraine independent,” he used the word “independent,” “and we’re gonna go out and we’re gonna go in and we’re gonna help keep peace.” You gotta say that’s pretty savvy. And you know what the response was from Biden? There was no response. They didn’t have one for that. No, it’s very sad. Very sad.

...
I think he sees this opportunity. I knew that he always wanted Ukraine. I used to talk to him about it. I said, “You can’t do it. You’re not gonna do it.” But I could see that he wanted it. I used to ask him. We used to talk about it at length. I think nobody probably knows him better in terms of the discussions that we have or that we’re having this morning. So, I knew him very well. I got to know him. I got to know President Xi. By the way, China is gonna be next. You know, China is gonna —

CLAY: You think they’re gonna go after Taiwan?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Oh, absolutely. Not with me, they wouldn’t have.

Trump is just so full of shit it's unbelievable. Here's the difference between Trump and Biden: Biden is standing up to Putin. Not backing down. Putin told Trump that he wanted Syria, Trump folded in Syria and abandoned the Kurds faster than a cheap suede suit! It was one of the quickest US withdraws in our history! This should probably be a separate thread.

 

[barbos]

You think your vote means something.

Stalin said it isn't who votes but who counts the votes. That's certainly accurate of what's happening in Russia. I'm not sure how democracy would work in Russia right now given the fact that it's still a society that has never experienced capitalism and freedom. People would be lost, probably expect too much and then be disappointed because there is so much corruption and crime that have been the levers of power for all their lives. And no independent reporting either.

You are mistaken if you think that Putin wins elections because he is "counting" votes.
He really does have the votes. And it is your obnoxious treatment of Russia for over 30 years is what contributes to that. Stop fooling yourself that US paid opposition has support of the people. You are not popular in Russia in any sense of the word.

Putin may or may not have the votes, but we'll never know because Russia doesn't have free elections or free press. He certainly doesn't think he has the votes, or else he wouldn't have to stuff the ballot boxes, silence any dissenting media, or assassinate his critics.

He has the votes. Don't fool yourself.
Excessively harsh treatment of the opposition is the result of western use of opposition to excite a revolt.

Why don't you comment on Saakashvili?

 

[lpetrich]

What will Donald Trump say now? Tucker Carlson? Tulsi Gabbard? All the other Russia-loving Republicans?

On the left, NEWS: Sanders Statement on U.S. Response to Russia » Senator Bernie Sanders

Vladimir Putin’s latest invasion of Ukraine is an indefensible violation of international law, regardless of whatever false pretext he offers. There has always been a diplomatic solution to this situation. Tragically, Putin appears intent on rejecting it. The United States must now work with our allies and the international community to impose serious sanctions on Putin and his oligarchs, including denying them access to the billions of dollars that they have stashed in European and American banks. The U.S. and our partners must also prepare for a worse scenario by helping Ukraine’s neighbors care for refugees fleeing this conflict. Finally, in the longer term, we must invest in a global green energy transition away from fossil fuels, not only to combat climate change, but to deny authoritarian petrostates the revenues they require to survive.

I like that. Especially the last part.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

you didn't deny Ukraine is a nation.

To be fair I did not confirm it either.

Dodge noted.

When Putin says that current Ukraine is a product of superficial and voluntaristic actions over long history he is 120% right.

Lots of conflicts in the world happens because of that. Middle East, Armenia-Azerbajdhan, Balkans to some degree too.

Yes, all of Asia and Europe (North America and South America too). We stopped doing that because too many people died in the Great War and WWII. Russia owns no birthright here. They had Ukraine for 70 years under Communistic control, and they bolted. The former Warsaw Pact states have not come running back to Russia even after Putin's attempts to polarize them.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

What will Donald Trump say now? Tucker Carlson? Tulsi Gabbard? All the other Russia-loving Republicans?

On the left, NEWS: Sanders Statement on U.S. Response to Russia » Senator Bernie Sanders

Vladimir Putin’s latest invasion of Ukraine is an indefensible violation of international law, regardless of whatever false pretext he offers. There has always been a diplomatic solution to this situation. Tragically, Putin appears intent on rejecting it. The United States must now work with our allies and the international community to impose serious sanctions on Putin and his oligarchs, including denying them access to the billions of dollars that they have stashed in European and American banks. The U.S. and our partners must also prepare for a worse scenario by helping Ukraine’s neighbors care for refugees fleeing this conflict. Finally, in the longer term, we must invest in a global green energy transition away from fossil fuels, not only to combat climate change, but to deny authoritarian petrostates the revenues they require to survive.

I like that. Especially the last part.

The context here is that Sanders was providing Russia some cover based on historical context. And obviously here, he draws the line at pre-emptive strikes.

 

[barbos]

Dodge noted.

There is no dodge. I don't think Ukraine is sustainable as this mixture of nazi themed West and Russia-leaning East. I already told you that.
And yes, most of the ukrainian land was literally attached to it for different political reasons, and most of these attachments was russian land with russians in it.

 

[barbos]

We stopped doing that because too many people died in the Great War and WWII

Lets cut this pointless discussion.
US conducted fascist inspired revolt in Ukraine to get favorable puppet regime there.
OK?
So this is your UN member.

Pakistan was a part of India too, so it's not that outrageous to split a country.
Same with Yugoslavia and then Serbia.

Czechoslovakia - split
B&H - thinking about it right now and it's going to be royal mess.
Kosovo - outrageous violation of international law by EU and US.
US literally funded armed insurrection.


So spare your outrage.

 

[lpetrich]

Tulsi Gabbard supported Bernie Sanders in 2020, but she's now become a conspiracy-mongering right-winger, like in Tulsi Gabbard on Twitter: "Durham probe further proves that the greatest threat to our democracy is not some foreign country, but rather the Power Elite, led by the likes Hillary Clinton and her cohorts in Deep State and Mainstream Media. (vid link)" / Twitter

Look at what she's saying about Russian attacks on Ukraine:
Tulsi Gabbard on Twitter: "What are we trying to achieve in Ukraine? How will it benefit the American people? And at what cost? The Biden Admin has never answered these questions. Inflation and cost of living will drastically increase, Russia will retaliate, and no one knows where it will all end. (vid link)" / Twitter - Feb 16

Tulsi Gabbard on Twitter: "Confrontation/war with Russia is and will be very costly to the American people, beginning with increased inflation, making it harder for us to afford gas, food, and other necessities of life. But Biden Admin and warmongers, Republican and Democrat, couldn’t care less. (vid link)" / Twitter - Feb 17

Tulsi Gabbard on Twitter: "Warmongers argue that..." / Twitter - Feb 19

Warmongers argue that we must protect Ukraine because it is a “democracy.” But they’re lying. Ukraine isn't actually a democracy. To hold onto power, Ukraine's president shut down the 3 TV stations that criticized him, and imprisoned he head of the opposition political party which came in 2nd place in the election, and arrested and jailed its leaders (exactly what Putin has been accused of doing)—all with the support of U.S.

Ukraine: Zelenskiy bans three opposition TV stations | News | DW | 03.02.2021
"Ukraine's pro-Western president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has signed decrees banning pro-Russian media outlets. The broadcasters had their licences revoked and are set to stay off the air for the next five years."

 

[barbos]

Speaking of dodging.
I dully noted you dodging Saakashvili disussion, Odessa massacre,.... what else?
Well, that's more than enough for now and quite a while actually.

 

[Elixir]

Diplomacy does not work here, that's the problem.
And it does not work because of you Putin.

Fixed it for you.
Nobody made Putin put most of his military on Ukraine's borders. Nobody twisted his arm to invade a sovereign nation. But he did it anyway because of his own ambitions and unquenchable thirst for personal glory, purchased with the blood of the Russian people.

 

[lpetrich]

She doubles down.
Tulsi Gabbard on Twitter: "What are we trying to achieve in Ukraine? How will it benefit the American people? And at what cost? The Biden Admin has never answered these questions. Inflation and cost of living will drastically increase, Russia will retaliate, and no one knows where it will all end. (vid link)" / Twitter - Feb 20

Tulsi Gabbard on Twitter: "A Russia-US/Ukraine conflict …" / Twitter - Feb 21

A Russia-US/Ukraine conflict will quickly go cyber with mutual attacks on communication/information assets, which will blind both sides to the other’s plans, actions & intentions, increasing the likelihood of miscalculation & misunderstanding, thereby drastically increasing the likelihood of the conflict going nuclear (accidentally or intentionally). And what for? To supposedly protect a “democracy” that really isn’t a democracy; to distract from domestic failures/show how tough Biden is. Biden can prevent war, but I fear he lacks the courage to do so

Tulsi Gabbard on Twitter: "Biden/Harris tell us we must bear the cost to defend freedom in Ukraine. But while you & your family struggle with higher prices, the Power Elite won’t suffer at all. And if the conflict goes nuclear, they’ll be safe in cushy, massive bunkers while you & your loved ones fry. (vid link)" / Twitter
With an interview of her by Tucker Carlson. Still making villains out of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

Tulsi Gabbard on Twitter: "This war and suffering could have easily been avoided if Biden Admin/NATO had simply acknowledged Russia’s legitimate security concerns regarding Ukraine’s becoming a member of NATO, which would mean US/NATO forces right on Russia’s border" / Twitter

Then someone responded
Fred Wellman on Twitter: "Why is Tulsi Gabbard still in the U.S. Army? ..." / Twitter

Why is Tulsi Gabbard still in the U.S. Army? I have a friend who was fired from his leadership position for vaguely negative tweets about Trump but LTC Gabbard is on TV attacking the Commander-in-Chief. It doesn’t matter if she is a Reserve officer. /1

Article 88 of the UCMJ states that commissioned military officers who use “contemptuous words” against the president shall be punished by court-martial. She is not an elected official anymore. Treat her like any other officer @ArmyChiefStaff /2

Then she repeat-tweets "Biden/Harris tell us we must bear the cost to defend freedom in Ukraine. ..." yet again.

 

[Toni]

Bad things will happen. You could have had a peaceful and prosperous world, but Putin has really fucked this up.

Sorry, you misspelled "neocon cunts" as "putin" that's a lot of misspelling.

It is indeed difficult to tell the difference between putin and trumpists.

 

[barbos]

Bad things will happen. You could have had a peaceful and prosperous world, but Putin has really fucked this up.

Sorry, you misspelled "neocon cunts" as "putin" that's a lot of misspelling.

It is indeed difficult to tell the difference between putin and trumpists.

Putin is not a trumpist and trump is not a neocon cunt.

 

[lpetrich]

Vladimir Putin questions Ukrainian statehood in televised speech to Russians - The Washington Post - Monday, Feb 21

Putin signed a decree recognizing the areas and agreed to cooperate with the heads of the two regions: Denis Pushilin of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Leonid Pasechnik of the Luhansk People’s Republic.

The leaders of the two regions asked Putin on Monday for recognition and for military assistance, raising the prospect that they may invite Russian forces in.

Putin has accused Ukraine of “genocide” against the regions, claiming Kyiv has mounted intensifying military attacks.

In his television address, he said the decision to recognize the sovereignty and independence of the two regions “should have been taken a long time ago.”

He asserted without evidence that Ukraine was “torturing” people, including women and children, and he repeated the genocide claim.

Then his opinions on Ukraine.

Putin excoriated Ukraine’s leaders In his television address, questioned their legitimacy and called the country “a colony with puppets at its helm” where Russian speakers were oppressed.

“Ukraine has never had its own authentic statehood. There has never been a sustainable statehood in Ukraine,” he said. He warned that Ukraine could develop its own nuclear weapons, calling this a “real threat,” claiming that the West was using Ukraine as “theater of potential warfare” against Russia and might help Kyiv to develop them.

As to NATO,

“NATO completely ignores our protests. They spit on them and do whatever they want. And they wanted to continue to do so,” he said. “But we did not agree to it.”

 

[Elixir]

Putin is not a trumpist

Of course not. Trump is a Putinist. He's a weakling who wishes he had Putin's balls, smarts, courage and power. The only thing they have in common is their sociopathic disregard for the welfare of anyone else.

and trump is not a neocon cunt.

Right. He's just a weakling who wishes he had Putin's balls, smarts and power.
So what?
This thread is about how The West should respond to your dictator's imperialist warmongering. Trump is a failed mob boss cowering in the remains of the shitpile he built for himself with other people's money. He has nothing to do with this.

 

[jonatha]

kak skazat "troll" po russkii?

 

[Toni]

Some of us had family members living in Poland when Russia invaded.

Russia did not invade Poland, Russia took back its own land they lost in WW1.

Utter gaslighting bullshit. See  Polish-Soviet War. Trotsky led the Red Army in the invasion, and he was trounced by General Pilsudski at the  Battle of Warsaw (1920).

The history of Poland is sad. Google the partition of Poland. Poland was torn apart by Prussia, Russia and Austria. Poland ever since has been fighting to regain her lands from her oppressors. Including the damned Russians. Russia seems to think any land they can steal is theirs forever and nobody has a right to every lift a hand to the Russian to regain their freedoms.

Do you even realize how ironic this is? Poland was Soviet Union of the middle ages constantly trying to expand and subjugate everyone including smaller Russia.
In the end remaining monarchies decided that Poland is too big for their own good.
Reminds you of anything? Well except that Russia is not trying to expand. It's actually NATO/EU who is trying to expand and do so at the expense and against Russia.

Neither NATO nor EU have invaded Ukraine. That would be Russia.

Lots of borders were different 500 years ago. I'm not sure how you can condemn Poland of a hundreds of years ago and still champion Russia who wants its empire back, mostly because Putin has done a terrible job and, like many so called leaders, relies on war to generate support

 

[barbos]

Neither NATO nor EU have invaded Ukraine. That would be Russia.

Last time I checked US was a member of NATO, so NATO absolutely did invade Ukraine.

 

[Jayjay]

It's ironic coming from me, but tribalism creates barriers to being able to listen to the other side and be open to compromise.

Don't know why you think it's ironic coming from you, HB. I've always found your posts to be well - even overly - considered.
I fault myself for reacting to barbos' biases. On some occasions I have taken time to consider what things might look like from his perspective, and have realized that his stilted claims are not that different from what I'd expect from myself, had I been immersed all my life in the culture from which he comes. This makes me even sadder about the fact of overriding tribalism, and those barriers to which you refer.

Well, I'm a Native American. I belong to a small tribe. And I'm fiercely loyal to my tribe. So, I understand Barbos's loyalty to Russia. I get it. But here's the deal: Putin is hurting Russia. There's no reason why Russia can't sit down and peacefully speak with his neighbors about how to get along together. He wants a relationship with Ukraine that is similar to the relationship between Canada and the US. Fine. Start treating Ukraine as the US treats Canada. The US doesn't put soldiers on Canadian borders. We don't send our best snipers to the border to pick off Canadians. We don't steal parts of their land. The US has disputes with Canada all the time. We have disputes about fishing, logging, environmental concerns, water concerns on the border, and etc. We have tons of differences. But we try to work them out at the bargaining table (or the courts at worse). Threre's no reason for Russia and Ukraine to have an armed conflict. They share a border. They mostly share language. There are great economic advantages to them both if they'd work together. Ukraine could get far more economic ties with Russia than it could with the US. And it's not even close. And yet, Putin is pushing Ukraine and the rest of eastern Europe towards the west.

I think Putin's reasoning, or at least part thereof, is the idea that history is written by the winners. He's convinced that future generations will hail him as a hero who return Russia to its proper borders, and the ends justify the means. And he's not entirely wrong. The USA expanded its territory by wars and genocide of the native Americans, but it's now ancient history and nobody would suggest that USA should roll back to 1776 borders. Hitler took his idea of a Germanic superstate from 19th century America. And now Putin is following in Hitler's footsteps.

Russia can always buy goodwill back later, even if it takes decades or centuries. But it never has to give up the land that it conquers. There's no downside, at least not in the minds of warmongerers like Putin, Xi, or Hitler.