How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Copernicus]

Russia is looking for some kind of victory to crow about for the May 9 celebration of the surrender of Nazi Germany in WWII. So they are bombarding Odesa, Ukraine, with cruise missiles today. I have a FB friend in Odesa who is a professional classical and jazz musician. He participates in street concerts every Saturday, which he livestreams on the internet. A couple of weeks ago, a cruise missile went off blocks away in their residential neighborhood during the concert. The startled musicians looked in the direction of the explosion, but they didn't stop playing. I have posted a brief video clip of today's performance on the IIDB Facebook page. It took place in a bomb shelter. I don't know whether his wife and daughter were able to evacuate, but I hope so. The courage of Ukrainians is amazing.

Ukraine braces for escalated attacks ahead of Russia's V-Day

 

[Copernicus]

We have seen a lot of Russian spin on news events filtered through barbos's perspective in our forum, but it can be interesting to actually monitor Russian state-controlled media independently. Here is an interesting alternative perspective from a NY Times reporter who watched hours of Russian TV and gave his impressions of how the news is presented to ordinary Russians:

 

[Elixir]

Here’s a story, don’t know if it’s true, but I like it:

 

[Copernicus]

For those interested in the jazz concert from a bomb shelter in Odesa today, I have posted a really nice version of "Straighten Up and Fly Right" on the IIDB Facebook feed. My friend Sasha did the musical arrangement and is on the piano. He is doing his part to lift spirits and help people endure this invasion of their country. The performance was recorded shortly before I posted this message.

 

[Elixir]

Looks like another Russian naval debacle...

Another Russian Warship Is Burning In The Black Sea​

"The ship is reportedly a frigate-sized vessel, possibly the Admiral Makarov, one of Russia’s newest and most advanced frigates. The 4,000-ton vessel is one of the largest warships in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, which is a key part of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian news site Dumskaya (English translation here) identified the ship as a “Russian frigate project 11356P of the Burevestnik type,” a description that corresponds to Admiral Grigorovich-class vessels (also known as Krivak IVs), which includes the Admiral Makarov.

The stricken frigate is currently near Snake Island, which is about 75 miles south of Odessa. “Enemy aircraft are now circling over this area of the Black Sea, and rescue ships have come out to help the ship from the temporarily occupied Crimea,” Dumskaya said.

I like that "temporarily occupied Crimea" line.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Putin May have to announce full scale mobilization on May 9th. But if he does he’ll be telegraphing that he’s losing. Which he is. Watch the Russian people avoid service. In the late 80’s, something like 90% of conscripts just didn’t show up. we could see massive but passive resistance to the war. That’s Russia’s fundamental dilemma. It’s troops aren’t willing to fight and die in Ukraine. Ukrainians are. And it will only get worse as the war drags on interminably.

25% of Russian professional Army is in Ukraine now. The rest is just spread over Russia and doing nothing. Russia has small population but not that small.
Just so you know.

You are a willfully ill-informed tool.
Just so you know.

The other 75% are needed to keep a lid on the Russian people. It’s the same problem with all autocracies. That’s why Putin has to mobilize.

A lot of the Russian professional military are going to be support troops and technicians for things like nuclear forces, supply depots, military air transport and the like which are not useful to fight a ground war in Ukraine. Usually it is calculated as a rule of thumb, to to keep one soldier in the field takes 10 support personnel.

 

[ZiprHead]

Russian Forces May Soon Be Forced Out of Artillery Range of Kharkiv: Report

The assessment by the Institute for the Study of War said Ukraine was making gains in an important phase of the battle in the eastern Donbass region.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Jayjay]

Russian Forces May Soon Be Forced Out of Artillery Range of Kharkiv: Report

The assessment by the Institute for the Study of War said Ukraine was making gains in an important phase of the battle in the eastern Donbass region.

www.newsweek.com

Good news, but Kharkiv is just a diversion meant to keep Ukrainian troops busy.

 

[Patooka]

A lot of the Russian professional military are going to be support troops and technicians for things like nuclear forces, supply depots, military air transport and the like which are not useful to fight a ground war in Ukraine. Usually it is calculated as a rule of thumb, to to keep one soldier in the field takes 10 support personnel.

Are you sure that ratio is valid for a conscript military like Russia?

 

[Elixir]

A lot of the Russian professional military are going to be support troops and technicians for things like nuclear forces, supply depots, military air transport and the like which are not useful to fight a ground war in Ukraine. Usually it is calculated as a rule of thumb, to to keep one soldier in the field takes 10 support personnel.

Are you sure that ratio is valid for a conscript military like Russia?

It may be a bit more actually. You need the guy that shoots the soldier in the back if he tries to run away, and other ancillaries.

 

[Jayjay]

Interesting poll by YouGov:

Support for Ukraine is strong in Europe, but nations are not as united as it looks | YouGov

In a recent YouGov poll conducted with the European University Institute for the 2022 State of the Union conference in Florence, our research found that an overwhelming majority of the citizens of EU countries attribute responsibility for the situation in Ukraine to Russia.

yougov.co.uk

This is why Russia cut off gas to Bulgaria. The bully always goes after the weakest link. Also notably Estonia and Latvia are missing, I doubt their numbers would look that good to Russia either (although both have sizeable Russian-speaking populations).

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[steve_bank]

In WWII Eisenhower had to deal with cranky American, British, and free French militaries and leaders. It is a wonder that he managed it all into a coherent force.

Not only between the Allies, also the American inter-service rivalries. In the Pacific a personal dispute between the head of the Peral Hrbor code breaking team and a superior almost ended the group, which figured out Midway as a Japanese target. MacArthur once refused Amy bomber support for a Navy operation.

The fact that they are all generally cooperating against Russia is pretty remarkable historically speaking. It does not take a genius to see Putin may have been counting on that not happening.

 

[Elixir]

The Russians sank it themselves, to celebrate Victory Day.

Actually according to the Jerusalem Post:

“Ukrainian presidential advisor Aleksey Arestovich said that it was a misunderstanding, and the sinking of a Serna-class landing vessel was instead struck, Liga.net reported on Saturday.”

 

[TSwizzle]

The Democratic-led House of Representatives voted 368-57 on Tuesday evening to pass a roughly $40 billion bill to deliver aid to Ukraine as it continues to face Russia's brutal assault. All 57 votes in opposition were from Republicans.
The measure will next need to be passed by the Senate before it can go to President Joe Biden to be signed into law. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said earlier in the day on Tuesday that after the House approved the package, the Senate "will move swiftly" to get the measure passed and sent to Biden's desk.

CNN

The “aid” is primarily weapons. Our tax dollars at work. WTF ?

 

[bilby]

The Democratic-led House of Representatives voted 368-57 on Tuesday evening to pass a roughly $40 billion bill to deliver aid to Ukraine as it continues to face Russia's brutal assault. All 57 votes in opposition were from Republicans.
The measure will next need to be passed by the Senate before it can go to President Joe Biden to be signed into law. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said earlier in the day on Tuesday that after the House approved the package, the Senate "will move swiftly" to get the measure passed and sent to Biden's desk.

CNN

The “aid” is primarily weapons. Our tax dollars at work. WTF ?

They're fighting a war. What kind of "aid" would you prefer to send them?

Weapons sound to me like exactly the kind of thing you want people to send you, when you are fighting a war.

It seems unlikely that there are Ukrainians huddled in foxholes watching Russian tanks advance on their positions and thinking "I just wish the Americans had sent us some nice donuts instead of these anti-tank weapons".

 

[Harry Bosch]

The Democratic-led House of Representatives voted 368-57 on Tuesday evening to pass a roughly $40 billion bill to deliver aid to Ukraine as it continues to face Russia's brutal assault. All 57 votes in opposition were from Republicans.
The measure will next need to be passed by the Senate before it can go to President Joe Biden to be signed into law. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said earlier in the day on Tuesday that after the House approved the package, the Senate "will move swiftly" to get the measure passed and sent to Biden's desk.

CNN

The “aid” is primarily weapons. Our tax dollars at work. WTF ?

Dude: where do you get the news!? Of course. The Russians are bombing Ukranian cities and ports. The Ukrainians don't like that. So, they are trying to push the Russian artillery and navy away from Ukranian cities as possible. Asking Russians to stop isn't working. So we're sending military weapons to Ukraine to help push out Russian invaders. Push them back, stop the war, everyone wins!

Seriously, we're going to be in the weapons business for a long time due to Russia. We need to send tons of defensive weapons to the border countries (Finland, Sweden, Poland, Lithuania, and etc. We need to encourage Russia to keep their troops at home.

 

[bilby]

The “aid” is primarily weapons. Our tax dollars at work. WTF ?

I know. It beggars belief that the USA might spend money on weapons. Whatever next?

 

[TSwizzle]

The Democratic-led House of Representatives voted 368-57 on Tuesday evening to pass a roughly $40 billion bill to deliver aid to Ukraine as it continues to face Russia's brutal assault. All 57 votes in opposition were from Republicans.
The measure will next need to be passed by the Senate before it can go to President Joe Biden to be signed into law. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said earlier in the day on Tuesday that after the House approved the package, the Senate "will move swiftly" to get the measure passed and sent to Biden's desk.

CNN

The “aid” is primarily weapons. Our tax dollars at work. WTF ?

Dude: where do you get the news!?

CNN, it's right there in the link, Dude.

Of course. The Russians are bombing Ukranian cities and ports. The Ukrainians don't like that. So, they are trying to push the Russian artillery and navy away from Ukranian cities as possible. Asking Russians to stop isn't working. So we're sending military weapons to Ukraine to help push out Russian invaders. Push them back, stop the war, everyone wins!

"Everyone wins"? I'm not quite seeing how giving billions of $ to a war/regional conflict is a win for the citizens of the USA.

Seriously, we're going to be in the weapons business for a long time due to Russia.

A business is usually a for profit endeavor. Is the US taxpayer going to see more money, i.e. profit in return? Seems the only people making a profit would be the arms makers. Is this the business you are talking about?

We need to send tons of defensive weapons to the border countries (Finland, Sweden, Poland, Lithuania, and etc. We need to encourage Russia to keep their troops at home.

Doesn't seem to have worked. What's so special about Ukraine for the USA to get this involved?

 

[TV and credit cards]

The Democratic-led House of Representatives voted 368-57 on Tuesday evening to pass a roughly $40 billion bill to deliver aid to Ukraine as it continues to face Russia's brutal assault. All 57 votes in opposition were from Republicans.
The measure will next need to be passed by the Senate before it can go to President Joe Biden to be signed into law. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said earlier in the day on Tuesday that after the House approved the package, the Senate "will move swiftly" to get the measure passed and sent to Biden's desk.

CNN

The “aid” is primarily weapons. Our tax dollars at work. WTF ?

Well, on the other side of this we may just have NATO members who all contribute their fair share to NATO. Sweden and Finland as new members. Sweden rebuilding what was once a strong military comparable to Finland’s. A Europe that will be much less dependent upon Russia for its energy needs. A Russia that will be hard pressed to finance the rebuilding of its military. In short, a NATO that will not need US forces nearly as much going forward.

On the other hand, not supporting Ukraine would get us what in Eastern Europe? A reconstituted Soviet Union by time Trump runs for office again in 2024? Halfhearted sanctions knowing the US was not going to throw in with Ukraine. And a Russia with all of Ukraine’s economic output at its disposal.

Investments can be a bit vague but this one seems like a pretty good bet.