How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[T.G.G. Moogly]

These are the soldiers and citizens Putin does not want in his ranks

Oleksiy described Russian forces “running away” from advancing Ukrainians, leaving their “rusty” weapons behind.

“They have rusty and rotting machine guns, shells that mostly do not burst, which is very good for us, as well as equipment that is still from the USSR,” he said.

“They (the Russians) don’t fight badly, but they don’t have the goal of war like ours, so that’s how it turns out. Those who believe they are defending their territories die on our land.”

Before the war, Oleksiy had dreams of becoming a football coach but his life changed when Russia invaded in February.

“You’ll think I’m too rude to the Russians, but I’m sorry, we didn’t ask or force them to invade,” he said. “I feel both anger and hatred for them and it is getting even stronger.

“It’s difficult for us because they’ve been preparing for the invasion for many years, whereas we didn’t expect such a mean blow.”

As fighting in Kherson rages on, Oleksiy is confident that his forces can continue their advance and change the tide of the war.

“It will be difficult, but we will definitely return our lands,” he said. “I think a certain number will retreat, and we’ll knock out the rest from there.

“Thanks to the help of our foreign friends, the victory will happen many times faster.”

But Oleksiy does not know what he will do when the fighting stops.

Even if propaganda, not too bad. His type person does not exist in Russia anymore. They've all fled, been killed, neutered, imprisoned or exiled because they are a threat to the criminal status quo.

 

[blastula]

NATO promised a war until the last ukrainian.

Where?

On the internet. One of your generals said that. He said it disapprovingly though.
And no, I am not searching for the link.

Barbos is right this time, it was said by the famous Nato general владимир путин, and this guy has done more for Nato than anybody.

 

[steve_bank]

In the Iraq war there was drone vides of Iraquis abandoning their tanks and wabvng their arms when a drone appearedd. Drones were used for targeting naval guns.

There were also reports of Iraqi pilots ejecting rather than dog fight.

 

[ZiprHead]

NATO promised a war until the last ukrainian.

Where?

On the internet. One of your generals said that. He said it disapprovingly though.
And no, I am not searching for the link.

Barbos is right this time, it was said by the famous Nato general владимир путин, and this guy has done more for Nato than anybody.

Oopsie!

 

[ZiprHead]

The occupiers began to surrender along with their equipment in the Kherson direction

 

[Ford]

NATO promised a war until the last ukrainian.

Where?

On the internet. One of your generals said that. He said it disapprovingly though.
And no, I am not searching for the link.

Barbos is right this time, it was said by the famous Nato general владимир путин, and this guy has done more for Nato than anybody.

Oopsie!

"Today we hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield. Well, what can you say here? Let them try," Putin said.

This was from July 7th. I wonder if his assessment has changed?

Because at this point, if NATO countries drew straws to see which one (and only one) got tasked with pushing the Russians out of Ukraine, and Poland drew the short straw?

Putin would still be fucked.

Right now, every country with even a remote possibility of tangling with Russia in a conventional war is reassessing their plans, because the vaunted Russian military has been revealed to be weaker than the active ingredients in homeopathic medicine. And that was before they lost tens of thousand of soldiers and thousands of heavy weapons in Ukraine. A smart Russian general or two (if there are any) should be looking around and asking "um...guys? What happens if someone attacks US?"

 

[Jarhyn]

The occupiers began to surrender along with their equipment in the Kherson direction

This implies that those in the Kherson region are those who least wished to fight. It does not bode well for my expectations as to Putin's nuclear threats.

 

[Elixir]

I have never been on Twitter.

The Twitter link says disable adblocker and ant tracker software.

They are out to get me.

If you saw that, they already got you. Submit. There is no other choice.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Reports are coming in that new conscripts being sent to Ukraine are being shook down for cell phones and gear by Russian soldiers. Fights and mutinies are resulting. Reportedly a number of theiving contract soldiers got severly beaten, locked themselves in a baracks and had to call for help. It is going to be a long war.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Reports are coming in that new conscripts being sent to Ukraine are being shook down for cell phones and gear by Russian soldiers. Fights and mutinies are resulting. Reportedly a number of theiving contract soldiers got severly beaten, locked themselves in a baracks and had to call for help. It is going to be a long war.

You have slaves rounded up and obeying their remote masters. What could go wrong?

 

[Jarhyn]

Reports are coming in that new conscripts being sent to Ukraine are being shook down for cell phones and gear by Russian soldiers. Fights and mutinies are resulting. Reportedly a number of theiving contract soldiers got severly beaten, locked themselves in a baracks and had to call for help. It is going to be a long war.

You have slaves rounded up and obeying their remote masters. What could go wrong?

Not to mention that some of them volunteered like right proper sociopaths, because they wanted to kill people, and the people holding their leash are equally absent.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Anarchy in the ranks. Battle field discipline is necessary. Russia's army has little discipline.

 

[SLD]

Reports are coming in that new conscripts being sent to Ukraine are being shook down for cell phones and gear by Russian soldiers. Fights and mutinies are resulting. Reportedly a number of theiving contract soldiers got severly beaten, locked themselves in a baracks and had to call for help. It is going to be a long war.

You have slaves rounded up and obeying their remote masters. What could go wrong?

And you’re arming the slaves too!

 

[zorq]

Reports are coming in that new conscripts being sent to Ukraine are being shook down for cell phones and gear by Russian soldiers. Fights and mutinies are resulting. Reportedly a number of theiving contract soldiers got severly beaten, locked themselves in a baracks and had to call for help. It is going to be a long war.

How sad is that? Going into debt to buy equipment because your Government wants to send you to die. And die for an unjust cause at that.

 

[lpetrich]

Billionaire Elon Musk tweeted this:
Elon Musk on Twitter: "Ukraine-Russia Peace:
- Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.
- Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).
- Water supply to Crimea assured.
- Ukraine remains neutral." / Twitter

???

Carl Bildt on Twitter: "Putin has obviously suppressed any memory of this, but these are the numbers for the Yes vote in the 1991 referendum in on independence. Every single region voted clearly for independence. (pic link)" / Twitter - showing the vote by oblast.
then
Steven Pifer on Twitter: "Well worth remembering:
Luhansk oblast -- 83% for independence
Donetsk oblast -- 83% for independence
Zaporizhzhia oblast -- 90% for independence
Kherson oblast -- 90% for independence
Crimea -- 54% for independence" / Twitter
Crimea was a borderline case. All the rest of Ukraine voted strongly for independence, with Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts having the weakest of those votes, at 83%. The highest fraction was some western oblasts, at 98%.

•  1991 Ukrainian sovereignty referendum - March 17, 1991 - while it was still a part of the Soviet Union
•  Declaration of Independence of Ukraine - 24 August 1991 - after the failed Soviet restorationist coup
•  1991 Ukrainian independence referendum - 1 December 1991

The results:

• Early 1991: "Do you consider necessary the preservation of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics as a renewed federation of equal sovereign republics in which the rights and freedom of an individual of any nationality will be fully guaranteed?" - For: 71.48%, Turnout: 83.52%
• Early 1991: "Do you agree that Ukraine should be part of a Union of Soviet Sovereign States on the basis on the Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine?" - For: 817%, Turnout: 83.5%
• December 1991: "Do you support the Act of Declaration of Independence of Ukraine?" - For: 92.26%, Turnout: 84.18%

 

[lpetrich]

Crimea is the odd one out, the only place where there seems like a big fraction of pro-Russian people.

Putin is losing the war in all 4 Ukrainian regions he 'annexed'

To hear pro-Russian military analysts tell it, in the last 72 hours Ukraine has managed to simultaneously recapture about 1,000 square kilometers of terrain in the northeast of the country and 2,200 square kilometers in the south.

Ukraine update: Ukraine advances on Berislav in the south, and Svatove in the north

Trending News on Twitter: "#Ukraine: Approximately 6 BTR(-70) APC were damaged or destroyed during the Ukrainian attack in #Kherson Oblast; but as the area is now under the control of Ukrainian forces, it is likely that most can be recovered/repaired. (vid link)" / Twitter
The view from a Ukrainian tank on a road, passing some Russian military hardware.

Russian troops are filmed surrendering to Ukraine in Kherson - Kherson Oblast, though obviously not the city itself.

 

[lpetrich]

Cute bit of satire of the Russian "referendums" in the occupied parts of Ukraine:

Kupradix on Twitter: "After a stunning referendum where 102% of Kaliningrad oblast voted to join Czechia, we welcome the new region of Královec as a part of our republic. It is a natural correction of a great injustice considering our deep historical ties. #Kaliningrad (pic link)" / Twitter
Kaliningrad Oblast turned into Královecký kraj in the Czech Republic (Česká republika).

Paweł Witecki on Twitter: "@KubsX @kupradix Should be: Kaliningrad is Russia, Królewiec is Poland, Königsberg is Germany, Královec is Czechia " / Twitter
then
povilas74 on Twitter: "@lospabloss @KubsX @kupradix And Karaliaučius is Lithuania!" / Twitter

Social Media Joke About Annexing Russia's Kaliningrad Goes Viral - "The capital of the enclave was founded in the 13th century by Teutonic knights and named Konigsberg (King's Hill) in honour of then-Czech King Premysl Otakar II."

Czech Petition on Annexing Kaliningrad From Russia Signed by Thousands - Newsweek

In the aftermath of Russia's illegal annexation of parts of Ukraine's territory in the southwestern region of the country, politicians in the Czech Republic have been joking about dividing the Russian Kaliningrad region. Now, a satirical petition launched by Czechs to do just that has been signed by over 13,000 people.

Interpreting Königsberg as King's Rock. The first translation I think of is King's Mountain.

"We believe that Russia has played with Kaliningrad for too long and it is time to send it one state back again, as has already become the custom in the less than 800 years of its existence. And since the city was founded in honor of the Czech king, it should pass into the hands of the rightful owner—the Czech Republic," the petition reads.

"As Russia showed us in Crimea and is now showing us in the east of Ukraine, it is perfectly fine to step onto the territory of a foreign state, announce a referendum there and then annex the territory. We thus had a unique opportunity to expand the Czech territory and finally gain access to the sea," it continued.

"We, therefore, demand the government of the Czech Republic to send Czech soldiers to Kaliningrad, announce a referendum that will end with a result of 98 percent in favor of joining the Czech Republic, and subsequently annex Kaliningrad and rename it Královec."

The petition has already collected over 13,000 signatures.

Czechs troll Russia with mock annexation of Kaliningrad - NY Post

The Czech Republic is a landlocked country and absorbing the region would give Czechs sea access for the first time, “supporters” of the move joked.

“It’s time to divide Kaliningrad so that our Czech brothers finally have access to the sea,” said a viral post retweeted by European Parliament member Tomas Zdechovsky.

The post included a map that showed Kaliningrad carved up in two — with the top half marked with a Czech flag and the bottom section marked with a Polish flag.

“We will hold a referendum to make Kaliningrad Czech-Polish,” he went on, using an emoji of a laughing face. “We will take the guide in Crimea.”

He then posted a Twitter poll and quickly declared while the poll remained open that “the results are clear.” A petition followed and has garnered almost 15,000 signatures as of Wednesday. An “official” Twitter account for the renamed Královec already had 51,000 followers.

“After a successful referendum, 97.9% of Kaliningrad residents decided to merge with the Czech Republic and rename Kaliningrad to Královec,” the account tweeted.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Reports are coming in that new conscripts being sent to Ukraine are being shook down for cell phones and gear by Russian soldiers. Fights and mutinies are resulting. Reportedly a number of theiving contract soldiers got severly beaten, locked themselves in a baracks and had to call for help. It is going to be a long war.

They can’t take cell phones with them because they’ll call +38 066 580 34 98, Ukraine’s “I want to live” hotline.

 

[Hermit]

It's actually a sneaky trick for Germany to retake Königsberg and a part of East Prussia. The beer comes from what used to be the Sudetenland, which was primarily inhabited by ethnic Germans until they were driven out in 1945.

 

[DrZoidberg]

As someone pointed out Zelensky barely got elected.

Just a side note, but Zelensky got 75% in the 2019 election. In most countries that would be considered a landslide.

You might be thinking of his approval ratings that were below 30% before the war.

ok, I should have fact checked.

Sorry, that was probably my bad. I think that I was referring to the previous election.

2019 Ukrainian presidential election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

In the final roud about 20 million votes were cast.out of a paoulation of about 50 million.

From the wiki page on Ukraine about 17% are ethnic Russian. How did they vote if they did?

Fat chance Ukranian ethnic Russians would vote for Russia. Who in their right mind would elect to be part of Russia, considering how Russia has been behaving? Thinking they'd be happy about it is the same flawed logic that led to USA putting all ethnic Japanese in internment camps during WW2. Most Ukrainians speak Russian, and can fluently switch between both. And do. So it's not like ethnic Russians, in any way have a reason to feel like a persecuted minority. That is all a story created by Putin's propaganda machine