How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[lpetrich]

Yet Russia’s turn to Orthodoxy after the Soviet collapse derived for the most part from a search for a post-communist cultural identity, not from the emotional embrace of religious beliefs that might be used to justify war. Relatively few Russians attend church services regularly, and when given the choice in opinion surveys, most Russians value living in a country with a high standard of living as opposed to one with strong spiritual values—or one with a powerful military that commands respect and fear abroad.

Almost as if they wanted something other than Marxism-Leninism after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the ROC had had a long history of "Russianness".

A primary cause of this disinterest is that many Russians do not feel fundamentally threatened by the West in either military or cultural terms.

...
In surveys just months before the start of the war, most respondents were indifferent to Russian laws that branded entities with ties to the West as “foreign agents". And a large minority felt the laws were designed to repress civil society, not defend Russian culture.

A lot of US and European right-wingers have become very pro-Putin and pro-Russia, something that baffles me, because I am old enough to remember the Cold War, and because Russia continues to be at least a potential geopolitical rival.

“Remember that [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky is a thug,” Republican Rep. Madison Cawthorn told supporters in March. “Remember that the Ukrainian government is incredibly corrupt and is incredibly evil and has been pushing woke ideologies.”

Arizona State Senator: Wendy Rogers on Twitter: "Zelensky is a globalist puppet for Soros and the Clintons." / Twitter

Back To The Intercept.

Representing the hawkish, traditional wing of the Republican Party, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell quickly sought to counter McCarthy’s warning about cutting off aid to Ukraine by insisting that a Republican-controlled Senate would actually demand even more military support for Ukraine than the Biden administration has provided. He said a Republican Senate would seek to ensure the “timely delivery of needed weapons and greater allied assistance to Ukraine.”

The debate over Ukraine between McCarthy and McConnell will likely lead to a series of bitter fights in the House and Senate, with the White House caught between them.

Julia Davis on Twitter: "Meanwhile in Russia: Kremlin-funded state TV explains why they're rooting for MAGA Republicans in the midterms and reveal the key talking points their trolls and useful idiots will be spreading to undermine Biden and the Democrats. (vid link)" / Twitter
With a subtitled video of a bit of a Russian news-talk show.

 

[Jayjay]

Looks like Russia took out part of the dam. Doesn't seem like uncontrolled flooding.

 

[Copernicus]

A lot of US and European right-wingers have become very pro-Putin and pro-Russia, something that baffles me, because I am old enough to remember the Cold War, and because Russia continues to be at least a potential geopolitical rival.

But Russia is no longer a country controlled by the Communist Party. It is a capitalist rightwing authoritarian dictatorship with an official Christian denomination as its state church. Moreover, it embraces much of the rightwing culture war positions, including promotion of white ethnocentric social biases, misogyny, and anti-LGBTQ practices. The MAGA Republicans see Russia more as an ally in their drive to eliminate liberal and progressive policies and help them win their elections in the US. Putin is no longer a Communist apparatchik, but a rightwing dictator. It's not hard for them to like the guy.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[TV and credit cards]

So I would think the next push would be along the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk line. Secure Kherson and move the battle to Hulyaipole in an effort to hit supply lines from Mariupol while the Kerch Bridge is still out. This could be a good wintertime battle of Ukrainians well equipped with proper foul weather gear against freezing Russians with little more than what they left home with.
I thought they'd take Kherson a couple weeks sooner than this. Milley thought it wouldn't happen for awhile yet. Perhaps we should both stop making our assessments on Friday night.
Meanwhile, Russian oligarch and least popular minion, Yevgeny Prigozhin is preparing the citizens of Belgorod and Kursk for an expected Ukrainian invasion. Russians are fucking nuts.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Russians are fucking nuts.

Not nuts, just victims of state propaganda and censorship of information. Some obviously see through the ruse but not the majority. And as others have stated earlier, disagreement, dissent and spontaneity are regularly and severely punished, and have been for decades if not centuries.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Russians are fucking nuts.

Not nuts, just victims of state propaganda and censorship of information. Some obviously see through the ruse but not the majority. And as others have stated earlier, disagreement, dissent and spontaneity are regularly and severely punished, and have been for decades if not centuries.

Well, I see lots of Russian bloggers with Russian audiences condemning Putin and the generals for retreating and not being brutal enough against the Ukrainians. They criticize Putin at great risk. And yet, I don't see many Russians desiring for peace with the west. None. I think that we're in a long-term battle against Russia and I don't think it will matter one bit if Putler is put to pasture.

 

[Copernicus]

Russians are fucking nuts.

Not nuts, just victims of state propaganda and censorship of information. Some obviously see through the ruse but not the majority. And as others have stated earlier, disagreement, dissent and spontaneity are regularly and severely punished, and have been for decades if not centuries.

My experience of Russians is that they are neither nuts nor naïve about the extent to which their government lies to them and censors public media. In fact, they don't behave much differently than Americans would in the same circumstances. It is difficult to say what the majority believes, but that is also true of Americans. We just have more accurate means of determining American public opinion through objective polling and surveys.

What I see in Russia is signs of a public revolt against authorities. A lot more people are getting away with open criticism of the government, because there are just too many people doing it for the government to punish or silence all of them. In Ukraine, that resulted in a genuine revolution in the capital that led to the current democratically elected government. Too many people became too upset with the Putin-friendly Yanukovych government for that government to effectively suppress dissent. AFAICT, Russia is nowhere near that level of anti-government sentiment, but the frustration is building dramatically enough for the government to find it difficult to keep playing whack-a-mole.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

AFAICT, Russia is nowhere near that level of anti-government sentiment, but the frustration is building dramatically enough for the government to find it difficult to keep playing whack-a-mole.

That's all I'm really saying. I don't know what the internet situation was in Ukraine prior to that event but I would guess that free access to information was greater. In Russia that is simply not the case. Someone like barbos does not have the whole picture. There are people who with the whole picture are going to be just as supportive of the regime anyway, same as anywhere else. And if one does decide that the government is not acting in his best interests he is still not free to express that disagreement. That's the bigger problem, obviously.

 

[Copernicus]

AFAICT, Russia is nowhere near that level of anti-government sentiment, but the frustration is building dramatically enough for the government to find it difficult to keep playing whack-a-mole.

That's all I'm really saying. I don't know what the internet situation was in Ukraine prior to that event but I would guess that free access to information was greater. In Russia that is simply not the case. Someone like barbos does not have the whole picture. There are people who with the whole picture are going to be just as supportive of the regime anyway, same as anywhere else. And if one does decide that the government is not acting in his best interests he is still not free to express that disagreement. That's the bigger problem, obviously.

I agree that access to information is important, but I don't get the impression that barbos's opinions have taken their current shape because of it. He has much greater access to Western web sites and media than most Russians, and he seems more pro-Putin than a lot of Russians who have less exposure, either because of technical difficulties or linguistic difficulties. I'm just saying that we really have even less information and exposure about what is going on inside of Russia. So it is really hard to say how widespread public opposition to Putin's war is, especially since people generally don't want to risk exposing themselves to persecution by expressing vocal opposition in public. Barbos can safely express pro-war views here, because it doesn't endanger him with those who may be monitoring his online discussions. He toes the "one people" party line.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

AFAICT, Russia is nowhere near that level of anti-government sentiment, but the frustration is building dramatically enough for the government to find it difficult to keep playing whack-a-mole.

That's all I'm really saying. I don't know what the internet situation was in Ukraine prior to that event but I would guess that free access to information was greater. In Russia that is simply not the case. Someone like barbos does not have the whole picture. There are people who with the whole picture are going to be just as supportive of the regime anyway, same as anywhere else. And if one does decide that the government is not acting in his best interests he is still not free to express that disagreement. That's the bigger problem, obviously.

I agree that access to information is important, but I don't get the impression that barbos's opinions have taken their current shape because of it. He has much greater access to Western web sites and media than most Russians, and he seems more pro-Putin than a lot of Russians who have less exposure, either because of technical difficulties or linguistic difficulties. I'm just saying that we really have even less information and exposure about what is going on inside of Russia. So it is really hard to say how widespread public opposition to Putin's war is, especially since people generally don't want to risk exposing themselves to persecution by expressing vocal opposition in public. Barbos can safely express pro-war views here, because it doesn't endanger him with those who may be monitoring his online discussions. He toes the "one people" party line.

You must be saying that most Russians aren't into the internet for information. the information barbos is getting can't be any different than what's available in the rest of Russia.

Also, my earlier post demonstrated that there is much censorship of information. We don't have that problem in the U.S. This 16 minute video is worth watching for those who don't understand what it is like to live in the Russian police state.

Putin's assault on critics of the war in Ukraine

 

[Harry Bosch]

AFAICT, Russia is nowhere near that level of anti-government sentiment, but the frustration is building dramatically enough for the government to find it difficult to keep playing whack-a-mole.

That's all I'm really saying. I don't know what the internet situation was in Ukraine prior to that event but I would guess that free access to information was greater. In Russia that is simply not the case. Someone like barbos does not have the whole picture. There are people who with the whole picture are going to be just as supportive of the regime anyway, same as anywhere else. And if one does decide that the government is not acting in his best interests he is still not free to express that disagreement. That's the bigger problem, obviously.

I agree that access to information is important, but I don't get the impression that barbos's opinions have taken their current shape because of it. He has much greater access to Western web sites and media than most Russians, and he seems more pro-Putin than a lot of Russians who have less exposure, either because of technical difficulties or linguistic difficulties. I'm just saying that we really have even less information and exposure about what is going on inside of Russia. So it is really hard to say how widespread public opposition to Putin's war is, especially since people generally don't want to risk exposing themselves to persecution by expressing vocal opposition in public. Barbos can safely express pro-war views here, because it doesn't endanger him with those who may be monitoring his online discussions. He toes the "one people" party line.

At the end of the day, I'd acknowledge that Russians don't have access to all the info. And we don't know how they feel and if they really support the war. However, I listen to Barbos and read the numerous Russian blogs, and there is a common theme that Russians believe that Ukraine is Russian land. Ukraine and the other eastern European countries (Poland, Baltic states and etc) really belong to Russia. And the fact that the west is involved with Ukraine means that we "started the war". As long as the Russians believe that Ukraine belongs to Russia, we'll be at war with them.

So, I understand Barbos position. Even though it is deluded. However, I really hate it when old people who are too old to fight advocate for war. That's chickenshit! Barbos is too old to serve in the military. If I were too old, I'd at least keep my mouth shut. The last US war that I supported was Afghanistan. I would have joined, except that I have been ruled medially ineligible due to a bad disk in my back. But I really think that if someone advocates for war, they ought to join and fight for it.

 

[Copernicus]

Don't forget that barbos is fluent enough in English to understand what he finds in Western news sources, and he has shown evidence here of having access to sources that are normally banned online in Russia. He knows how to use a proxy service to circumvent attempts to block access to the external internet, which is severely censored for most Russians.

See, for example:

Ukraine war: Russians kept in the dark by internet search​

Also, don't forget that barbos has been exposed to a lot of information about what is happening in Ukraine by engaging people in this forum. His sources of information are not typical for a Russian citizen. I just don't believe that he is as naive or uninformed about what is going on as most Russians are.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Any news I receive through Microsoft from the Hindustan Times is pro Russian, and not just a little bit. Don't know exactly how that happens to such a widely read paper or how I only get pro Russian blurbs. But it illustrates how people can be fed biased information.

I just don't believe that he is as naive or uninformed about what is going on as most Russians are.

Why not? More importantly, does that even matter? Or do you think he is doing it just to protect himself?

 

[steve_bank]

It is unbelievable.

It is like watching the Battle Of The Bulge in WWII on TV in real time.

I suppose we are all conditioned and desensitized by decades of violence and conflict in daily news. The Ukrainian fight is epic.

How does Russia spin it t this point? He has no off ramp.

 

[Harry Bosch]

It is unbelievable.

It is like watching the Battle Of The Bulge in WWII on TV in real time.

I suppose we are all conditioned and desensitized by decades of violence and conflict in daily news. The Ukrainian fight is epic.

How does Russia spin it t this point? He has no off ramp.

I think that they are honestly spinning it as that there are actual physical NATO troops in Ukraine fighting against the Russians. For the longest time, I thought that the NATO troops fighting in Ukraine was just a metaphor. But I don't think so anymore. The Russians are truely deluded. They just can't understand why a people would fight for their land.

 

[Copernicus]

Any news I receive through Microsoft from the Hindustan Times is pro Russian, and not just a little bit. Don't know exactly how that happens to such a widely read paper or how I only get pro Russian blurbs. But it illustrates how people can be fed biased information.

I'm not sure why you are bringing up the Hindustan Times here. I did cite a BBC article.

I just don't believe that he is as naive or uninformed about what is going on as most Russians are.

Why not? More importantly, does that even matter? Or do you think he is doing it just to protect himself?

I explained why I didn't think him naive or uninformed. He has been hanging around this forum and previously the Secular Cafe for years now, so he is no stranger to me. My impression has always been that he made an effort to keep himself informed. It is only since Putin's invasion of Ukraine that he has been spouting disinformation and propaganda claptrap, and I assume that most of it is just to provoke others into angry debates. He likes rough play. One of the advantages of being on his ignore list is that I don't get sucked into his spinning vortex of angry taunts and insults.

 

[Elixir]

Barbos is invaluable to this community, as an articulate and unique character. At any given moment he may express a salient point of fact, and the next, a counter factual assertion of fantasy.
it has educated me to learn of the power of the comic book version of Mother Russia that has been assembled out of tenuous fragments of history, and sold to the Russian people. It all makes a certain internal sense, even if it’s vaporware.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I'm not sure why you are bringing up the Hindustan Times here. I did cite a BBC article.

Sorry for the confusion. I was merely trying to illustrate the fact that some news sources are seriously biased. For example Russia is bringing its T62 tanks out of mothballs because their newer tanks are being destroyed. The Hindustan Times wrote this up as the Russians bringing their fiercest tanks into battle and that Ukraine better look out. It's like that. So barbos's position is understandable if his sources are highly compromised.