How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Cheerful Charlie]

Russian missiles hit Poland. Two Polish citizens were killed.

U.S. official says Russian missiles hit Poland, killing two -Associated Press

A senior U.S. intelligence official said Russian missiles crossed into Poland, killing two people, the Associated Press reported on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Personally, if Poland has the capability they ought to respond in kind, depending of course on what Hitler does. If Hitler reacts appropriately there need be no military response.

 

[TV and credit cards]

So Russian missiles hit Poland. What now?
https://www.dw.com/en/russian-missiles-cross-into-nato-member-poland-report/a-63770954

The question is whether those missile strikes were plausibly a mistake. If not, then the sites from which they were launched should be destroyed. Otherwise, Russia should pay reparations, which might be politically impossible for Putin. This kind of escalation, either deliberate or by mistake, was what everyone has been dreading, ever since Putin invaded Ukraine. It is beyond stupid.

A bit more from The Insider
Unfortunately, Russia can't even get a pass if they were wayward missiles. I don't think there is much more we can do in as far as sanctions are concerned. Perhaps rather than military escalation, cutting rail transport to Kaliningrad would be just.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Personally, if Poland has the capability they ought to respond in kind, depending of course on what Hitler does. If Hitler reacts appropriately there need be no military response.

But it's a NATO thing now. We couldn't let Poland respond on its own. Doesn't seem proper.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Personally, if Poland has the capability they ought to respond in kind, depending of course on what Hitler does. If Hitler reacts appropriately there need be no military response.

But it's a NATO thing now. We couldn't let Poland respond on its own. Doesn't seem proper.

It is and it isn't. That depends on Poland.

 

[Elixir]

Personally, if Poland has the capability they ought to respond in kind, depending of course on what Hitler does. If Hitler reacts appropriately there need be no military response.

But it's a NATO thing now. We couldn't let Poland respond on its own. Doesn't seem proper.

It is and it isn't. That depends on Poland.

Right. We don't want to punch Russia in the mouth, causing them to pull out a gun and start blasting away at Poland.
Putler knows that, and this was almost certainly an intentional act to provoke a counterattack that would give excuse for the next escalation.
At some point, we are going to have to take Putler out.

 

[Patooka]

Personally, if Poland has the capability they ought to respond in kind, depending of course on what Hitler does. If Hitler reacts appropriately there need be no military response.

But it's a NATO thing now. We couldn't let Poland respond on its own. Doesn't seem proper.

It is and it isn't. That depends on Poland.

Doesn't Article 5 say otherwise?

 

[TV and credit cards]

Personally, if Poland has the capability they ought to respond in kind, depending of course on what Hitler does. If Hitler reacts appropriately there need be no military response.

But it's a NATO thing now. We couldn't let Poland respond on its own. Doesn't seem proper.

It is and it isn't. That depends on Poland.

Doesn't Article 5 say otherwise?

As he attacked one, so did he attack us all.

 

[steve_bank]

Poland has an air force. They can retaliate.

A quetion may be is if Putin now wants to instigate a NATO response. That night open the door for nukes, and cement hs position that Russia is in an existential battle with NATO. It could rally the Russians and the military.

 

[crazyfingers]

Doesn't Article 5 say otherwise?

I expect that Poland would have to determine it was an attack and would need to invoke article 5. If accidental, Poland may choose to say it was not intended and so decide not to call it an attack.

But if Poland declares that it was attacked, substantiates it and invokes Article 5, then NATO is obliged to become involved.

 

[crazyfingers]

Poland has an air force. They can retaliate.

They can if they choose. Or they can invoke article 5 and it's a Nato thing.

 

[Tigers!]

Right. We don't want to punch Russia in the mouth, causing them to pull out a gun and start blasting away at Poland.
Putler knows that, and this was almost certainly an intentional act to provoke a counterattack that would give excuse for the next escalation.
At some point, we are going to have to take Putler out.

The Mossad must have a couple of agents in Russia with nothing to do.
Falls from windows, poisonings are terribly common in Russia it seems.
</sarcasm>

 

[Jayjay]

So Russian missiles hit Poland. What now?
https://www.dw.com/en/russian-missiles-cross-into-nato-member-poland-report/a-63770954

The question is whether those missile strikes were plausibly a mistake. If not, then the sites from which they were launched should be destroyed. Otherwise, Russia should pay reparations, which might be politically impossible for Putin. This kind of escalation, either deliberate or by mistake, was what everyone has been dreading, ever since Putin invaded Ukraine. It is beyond stupid.

A bit more from The Insider
Unfortunately, Russia can't even get a pass if they were wayward missiles. I don't think there is much more we can do in as far as sanctions are concerned. Perhaps rather than military escalation, cutting rail transport to Kaliningrad would be just.

Not up to Poland. The railway from Belarus to Kaliningrad goes through Lithuania. Poland would need to convince Lithuania that to shut the rail, and risk reprisals from Russia and EU.

I think Poland should either privately demand that Russia confesses the missile strike and apologizes publicly. Or Poland could bring Patriot missile defense system to the border and agree with Ukraine for a partial "no fly zone" where Poland will shoot down cruise missiles over western Ukraine. Direct attacks against Russia seem unlikely.

 

[Jayjay]

Personally, if Poland has the capability they ought to respond in kind, depending of course on what Hitler does. If Hitler reacts appropriately there need be no military response.

But it's a NATO thing now. We couldn't let Poland respond on its own. Doesn't seem proper.

It is and it isn't. That depends on Poland.

Doesn't Article 5 say otherwise?

Article 5 says other countries need to help if any member asks for it. So it's indeed up to Poland. I doubt Poland will invoke article 5 over this incident.

EDIT: crazyfingers beat me to it.

 

[TV and credit cards]

So Russian missiles hit Poland. What now?
https://www.dw.com/en/russian-missiles-cross-into-nato-member-poland-report/a-63770954

The question is whether those missile strikes were plausibly a mistake. If not, then the sites from which they were launched should be destroyed. Otherwise, Russia should pay reparations, which might be politically impossible for Putin. This kind of escalation, either deliberate or by mistake, was what everyone has been dreading, ever since Putin invaded Ukraine. It is beyond stupid.

A bit more from The Insider
Unfortunately, Russia can't even get a pass if they were wayward missiles. I don't think there is much more we can do in as far as sanctions are concerned. Perhaps rather than military escalation, cutting rail transport to Kaliningrad would be just.

Not up to Poland. The railway from Belarus to Kaliningrad goes through Lithuania. Poland would need to convince Lithuania that to shut the rail, and risk reprisals from Russia and EU.

I think Poland should either privately demand that Russia confesses the missile strike and apologizes publicly. Or Poland could bring Patriot missile defense system to the border and agree with Ukraine for a partial "no fly zone" where Poland will shoot down cruise missiles over western Ukraine. Direct attacks against Russia seem unlikely.

I don't think it would take much convincing for Lithuania. Weren't they considering this earlier in the year?
The no-fly zone sounds good though it does seem like more of an invitation for confrontation between NATO and Russia. Perhaps just giving Ukraine the tools it needs, specifically longer range missiles to go after military targets within Russia and Russian ships would be best.

 

[ZiprHead]

I don't think it would take much convincing for Lithuania. Weren't they considering this earlier in the year?
The no-fly zone sounds good though it does seem like more of an invitation for confrontation between NATO and Russia. Perhaps just giving Ukraine the tools it needs, specifically longer range missiles to go after military targets within Russia and Russian ships would be best.

Take out Russia's Black Sea Fleet where the missiles are coming from.

 

[Copernicus]

Here is the Russian response, published by the RT propaganda site, to the missile attack on Poland:

Russia denies striking Poland with missiles​

The US is coordinating with Poland to verify that the attack really was from Russia, although it seems to have happened during a massive missile attack against civilian targets inside of Ukraine. It's possible that a couple of Russian missiles simply went astray. Conceivably, they may have classified information from an AWACS flight regarding the trajectory of the missiles.

I don't see any reason why Putin would order a deliberate attack on Poland, given the risk of confrontation with NATO, but it is also possible that elements within the Russian military could have deliberately targeted the Polish town as a form of provocation. There are certainly lots of idiots in Russia who are crazy enough to try something like that, and we now can see how undisciplined, uncoordinated, and unprofessional the Russian military is.

The most likely explanation that occurs to me is that the attack was part of Putin's kneejerk response to the humiliating defeat and retreat from Kherson. His military was ordered to carry out the attack on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine as a way of stealing attention away from the panicked retreat, which apparently involves evacuations even from areas on the eastern side of the Dnipro. The attack on Ukraine was so large and hastily planned that a couple of missiles could easily have gone astray near the border of Ukraine and landed in Polish territory.

 

[crazyfingers]

Here is the Russian response, published by the RT propaganda site, to the missile attack on Poland:

Russia denies striking Poland with missiles​

The US is coordinating with Poland to verify that the attack really was from Russia, although it seems to have happened during a massive missile attack against civilian targets inside of Ukraine. It's possible that a couple of Russian missiles simply went astray. Conceivably, they may have classified information from an AWACS flight regarding the trajectory of the missiles.

I don't see any reason why Putin would order a deliberate attack on Poland, given the risk of confrontation with NATO, but it is also possible that elements within the Russian military could have deliberately targeted the Polish town as a form of provocation. There are certainly lots of idiots in Russia who are crazy enough to try something like that, and we now can see how undisciplined, uncoordinated, and unprofessional the Russian military is.

The most likely explanation that occurs to me is that the attack was part of Putin's kneejerk response to the humiliating defeat and retreat from Kherson. His military was ordered to carry out the attack on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine as a way of stealing attention away from the panicked retreat, which apparently involves evacuations even from areas on the eastern side of the Dnipro. The attack on Ukraine was so large and hastily planned that a couple of missiles could easily have gone astray near the border of Ukraine and landed in Polish territory.

In other words, a mistake. Ya I don't see a reason for Putin to purposely provoke something especially if mistake is seen as the most likely cause, being so close to the border.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Moron Putin is now blaming Poland for escalation of war in Ukraine.

Putin breaks silence on Poland missile crash and blames Warsaw

The reports of a missile striking Poland has been described as a "significant escalation" amid fears of how NATO will respond.

www.express.co.uk

 

[Copernicus]

Moron Putin is now blaming Poland for escalation of war in Ukraine.

Putin breaks silence on Poland missile crash and blames Warsaw

The reports of a missile striking Poland has been described as a "significant escalation" amid fears of how NATO will respond.

www.express.co.uk

This war criminal has a limited repertoire of excuses for military blunders and atrocities committed by the Russian military. This is the well-worn excuse that Russians didn't commit the atrocity and/or blunder. It was Ukrainians doing it to their own country and their own people. Now he blames the Polish government for attacking its own village near the border of Ukraine just to embarrass Russia. Nobody is fooled except maybe some folks in Russia that don't want to believe that their country is lying to them.