How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[TV and credit cards]

The fins of the missiles will be left to determine if it is Russian. The crater left will tell the tale of the trajectory.
Astray or not is neither here nor there as the Russians had no business doing any of this shit in the first goddamn place.
They want to play a game of incidents where there is room for doubt as to perpetrator and/or intent, I’m sure someone is fully capable of responding in kind.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Poland has Pewstain by the balls whether Pewstain admits it or not. NATO can place a no fly zone over Ukraine depending on what Poland wishes. Someone needs to deliver a punch in the mouth to Hitler. Someone does.

Edit: Biden must have intel that the rocket could not have been fired from Russia. Maybe it is a Ukrainian misfire or maybe it's from a ship.

 

[Copernicus]

Given the location, it could have been fired from Belarus.

 

[crazyfingers]

Given the location, it could have been fired from Belarus.

Or from a Russian ship in the Black Sea?

 

[Jayjay]

Given the location, it could have been fired from Belarus.

Or from a Russian ship in the Black Sea?

Belarus is closer. But what do I know?

 

[Copernicus]

President Biden has said the initial evidence does not support the contention that the missiles were fired from Russian territory. So we'll have to await the results of the final investigation.

 

[SLD]

Given the location, it could have been fired from Belarus.

Or from a Russian ship in the Black Sea?

Belarus is closer. But what do I know?

Given the location, it could have been fired from Belarus.

Or from a Russian ship in the Black Sea?

Belarus is closer. But what do I know?

Does it matter? If it came from Russian forces, then there’s the problem. I don’t think Belarus has been firing on Ukraine. But they have been letting Russians use their land as a base.

This move could seriously draw us further into the conflict. Now we could use this to forceRussia to stop their infrastructure attacks or they suffer further defeats due to direct NATO involvement.

 

[Jayjay]

It seems like these were not Russian missiles, but Ukrainian air defense that went astray. Though Russia bears responsibility for firing at Ukraine to begin with, in particular the Ukrainian power lines. My understanding is that the place where the missiles fell is near the power line between Ukraine and Poland.

Poland, NATO say missile landing wasn’t Russian attack

President Andrzej Duda said it was mostly likely a Ukrainian missile that fell in Poland, but he also said that the ultimate responsibility lies with Russia, which launched a barrage of missile attacks on Ukraine on Tuesday.

www.fox5vegas.com

Polish President Andrzej Duda went further, saying there are no signs that the blast was a deliberate attack.

The missile came down Tuesday near Poland’s border with Ukraine. Three U.S. officials said preliminary assessments suggested it was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

This is another example of how the dreaded western MSM works: it corrects itself when new information becomes available.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

It seems like these were not Russian missiles, but Ukrainian air defense that went astray. Though Russia bears responsibility for firing at Ukraine to begin with, in particular the Ukrainian power lines. My understanding is that the place where the missiles fell is near the power line between Ukraine and Poland.

Poland, NATO say missile landing wasn’t Russian attack

President Andrzej Duda said it was mostly likely a Ukrainian missile that fell in Poland, but he also said that the ultimate responsibility lies with Russia, which launched a barrage of missile attacks on Ukraine on Tuesday.

www.fox5vegas.com

Polish President Andrzej Duda went further, saying there are no signs that the blast was a deliberate attack.

The missile came down Tuesday near Poland’s border with Ukraine. Three U.S. officials said preliminary assessments suggested it was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

This is another example of how the dreaded western MSM works: it corrects itself when new information becomes available.

And that makes the most sense. I remember reading accounts of naval battles during WW2 in the pacific when allied ships were fending off kamikaze attacks. Ordnance was literally being fired in all directions and men died via friendly fire.

 

[Jayjay]

Zelensky's caveat was negotiating with the next Russian president not Putin. Stating the obvious, negotiating with Putin is pointless.

Putin has like 80% support in Russia. And in general, public opinion is tilting toward complete occupation of Ukraine, simply because it's pointless to leave anything which neocons can use again.

This is false. According to latest polls by Levada, the support for negotiatons is increasing, so if the public opinion is tilting anywhere, it's away from total occupation. For second month in a row more people support negotiations than continuation of hostilities.

Конфликт с Украиной: октябрь 2022 года

Беспокойство украинскими событиями сохраняется на высоком уровне. Поддержка действий ВС РФ остаётся высокой. Чуть больше половины респондентов поддерживают объявление частичной мобилизаций, однако мнение в различных социально-демографических группах неоднородно. При этом продолжает расти число...

www.levada.ru

Via google translate:

For the second month in a row, there has been a slow increase in the number of supporters of peace talks. If in August 48% of the respondents supported the continuation of hostilities, in September - 44%, then in October - 36%. Accordingly, 44% were in favor of starting negotiations in August, 48% in September, and 57% in October.

It should also be considered that any "poll" in Russia are biased towards showing support for war and Putin, because opposition to the regime can be fatal. Smart people who don't support Putin are going to be wary of answering any pollster who calls them and starts interrogating them about their opinions. Or will simply lie.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I think Poland should either privately demand that Russia confesses the missile strike and apologizes publicly. Or Poland could bring Patriot missile defense system to the border and agree with Ukraine for a partial "no fly zone" where Poland will shoot down cruise missiles over western Ukraine. Direct attacks against Russia seem unlikely.

Unless the Russian missiles fly high Poland can't shoot down cruise missiles over Ukraine with Patriots. SAMs have very limited range against low-flying things. That's why both sides can fly over Ukraine--they're staying below the horizon of each other's major SAM systems. Russia, however, risks flying over Stingers and while they don't pack a lot of punch it doesn't take much to bring down a low-flying plane--they simply don't have time recover from engine hits even if the plane could limp home.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

And that makes the most sense. I remember reading accounts of naval battles during WW2 in the pacific when allied ships were fending off kamikaze attacks. Ordnance was literally being fired in all directions and men died via friendly fire.

A Ukrainian SAM shouldn't go into Poland in the first place.

Whatever it was it probably was malfunctioning. This is a stray round, not a deliberate attack.

 

[Jayjay]

Zelensky is again appealing for NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Last time this was openly asked was near the beginning of the war when Ukraine was scrambling to defend Kyiv.

I think this is a weak signal that Ukraine isn't doing so great.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Zelensky is again appealing for NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Last time this was openly asked was near the beginning of the war when Ukraine was scrambling to defend Kyiv.

I think this is a weak signal that Ukraine isn't doing so great.

With respect, I don't agree. Ukraine is winning. You can tell the side that is losing is the one whining for negotiations. The longer this war goes the nastier it will be for Russia. Clearly Ukraine is retaking its land. However, and this is a big however, Ukraine cares about its soldiers and the misery that its civilians are feeling (due to being cold and being in a war). Zelensky's job is directly tied to how Ukrainians feel the war is going. Putler dosn't give a fuck. Putler can send 18-year boys into battle with guns that had literally been buried in dirt and without any training, and his job isn't affected.

I think that serious negotiations in the future will have to contain elements that dis-encourage Russia from future invasions. Ukraine has the advantage now. But what about the future if a competent Russian leadership arises? I think that its too dangerous for Ukraine to join Nato. But I think that its feasible to extend a no-fly zone over Ukraine once peace is established. Maybe an international peace keeping force in Ukraine as well. And of course, the west will need to re-arm Ukraine substantially. Now that China is tiring of this conflict, I think that its a matter of time before peace can be established. But a peace will have to contain elements of how to prevent this from happening to Ukraine in the future.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Zelensky is again appealing for NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Last time this was openly asked was near the beginning of the war when Ukraine was scrambling to defend Kyiv.

I think this is a weak signal that Ukraine isn't doing so great.

The battle on the ground isn't going poorly, but Russia has always had the capabilities to fire missiles and rock Ukraine very hard. Russia was always holding back a bit. They've loosened up that discretion and Zelensky is wanting NATO to plug up the sky... but NATO won't do that. It creates too easy a path to war this planet can't handle.

This is the funny part about Russia. Russia can't win a war to save its ass... but they can still scorch the Earth, even if they do so with only conventional weapons. NATO isn't holding back because they don't think they can win, they are afraid of Putin killing hundreds of thousands of Europeans and maybe Americans in a fit.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It seems like these were not Russian missiles, but Ukrainian air defense that went astray. Though Russia bears responsibility for firing at Ukraine to begin with, in particular the Ukrainian power lines. My understanding is that the place where the missiles fell is near the power line between Ukraine and Poland.

Poland, NATO say missile landing wasn’t Russian attack

President Andrzej Duda said it was mostly likely a Ukrainian missile that fell in Poland, but he also said that the ultimate responsibility lies with Russia, which launched a barrage of missile attacks on Ukraine on Tuesday.

www.fox5vegas.com

Polish President Andrzej Duda went further, saying there are no signs that the blast was a deliberate attack.

The missile came down Tuesday near Poland’s border with Ukraine. Three U.S. officials said preliminary assessments suggested it was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

This is another example of how the dreaded western MSM works: it corrects itself when new information becomes available.

Didn't the western MSM hold back on saying what it was for certain, only indicating there were possibilities?

 

[Elixir]

Didn't the western MSM hold back on saying what it was for certain, only indicating there were possibilities?

They had to check with the politburo, and were told "yeah, it was the Russians, but we want you to pretend it wasn't because we don't want a nuclear response to any retaliation".

 

[Swammerdami]

... I remember reading accounts of naval battles during WW2 in the pacific when allied ships were fending off kamikaze attacks. Ordnance was literally being fired in all directions and men died via friendly fire.

In another thread an Infidel is being scolded for writing "Slavery makes everyone poorer" while acknowledging that Jefferson would have become poorer if he freed his slaves. To show even-handedness, must I also object to the above claim?

If there are 360 directions, and each direction is chosen randomly then of course we would expect "all directions" to be achieved with 2327 ≈ 360*(log_e(360) + 0.5772156649) + 0.5 firings on average. (0.5772156649 is of course the Euler-Mascheroni constant.) I suppose more rounds than that were fired in many engagements.

However purists will insist that there an infinite number of distinct directions, rendering the excerpted claim impossible without an infinite amount of ordnance.

Fortunately, Mr. Moogly inserted the key adverb "literally" — which now has the secondary meaning of "figuratively" — so no reprimand need be issued.

 

[Jayjay]

Zelensky is again appealing for NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Last time this was openly asked was near the beginning of the war when Ukraine was scrambling to defend Kyiv.

I think this is a weak signal that Ukraine isn't doing so great.

With respect, I don't agree. Ukraine is winning. You can tell the side that is losing is the one whining for negotiations. The longer this war goes the nastier it will be for Russia. Clearly Ukraine is retaking its land. However, and this is a big however, Ukraine cares about its soldiers and the misery that its civilians are feeling (due to being cold and being in a war). Zelensky's job is directly tied to how Ukrainians feel the war is going. Putler dosn't give a fuck. Putler can send 18-year boys into battle with guns that had literally been buried in dirt and without any training, and his job isn't affected.

I don't see how being able to throw more people into the fire is a disadvantage for Russia. But we'll find out in 3 to 6 months if Russia can ramp up its training and production to make any new advances.

I think that serious negotiations in the future will have to contain elements that dis-encourage Russia from future invasions. Ukraine has the advantage now. But what about the future if a competent Russian leadership arises? I think that its too dangerous for Ukraine to join Nato. But I think that its feasible to extend a no-fly zone over Ukraine once peace is established. Maybe an international peace keeping force in Ukraine as well. And of course, the west will need to re-arm Ukraine substantially. Now that China is tiring of this conflict, I think that its a matter of time before peace can be established. But a peace will have to contain elements of how to prevent this from happening to Ukraine in the future.

I think the NATO membership is a red herring. If we assume that a key portion of any peace agreement will be Ukraine's security and inability of Russia to wage another war, then that's pretty much equivalent to NATO membership. A no-fly zone or peacekeeping force would probably have to be from NATO countries, because what "neutral" country would be both competent enough and acceptable to both sides? And if Ukraine can defend itself and continue to receive military or economic aid, NATO membership is just a formality.

Ukraine could agree not to join NATO because it doesn't need to, as long as it can continue to receive aid and cooperate with e.g. training exercises and buy weapons from the west. But this kind of empty concession wouldn't fool Russia either, as Russia's main goal is to ensure Ukraine is unable to defend itself.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Ukraine can win this war if we let them. They have used what we have given them to their utmost capabilities. But when you are restricted to the range of artillery and HIMARS by a timid US president, you are confined to a bloody and unnecessarily drawn out battle one kilometer at a time. Perhaps between now and January, Ukraine will get more of what it needs to properly execute this war.

Ukraine will build a professional armed forces. They were prior to this year and they will continue to do so. As long as the US does not put some fucktard in the Oval Office, the US will assist them. It is unlikely Russia will have anything approaching a professional armed forces anytime soon. Even with Putin gone, his likely successor will be just another corrupt asshole who will do little more than take his turn looting the country. Russia has been reduced to little more than and will remain a belligerent nation with nuclear weapons for the foreseeable future.

And what would any peace agreement with Russia be worth? Nothing. Now is not the time to hesitate. All eastern European nations that unhinged Russians believe they are somehow entitled to bully should be assisted in training their armed forces and upgrading their equipment to the extent possible. Putin's idiocy has presented us with the opportunity to put Russia in a box. We shouldn't let it pass.

We've tried time and again to offer an olive branch to nations such as Russia and China and where has it gotten us?