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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Zelenskyi is obviously not on drugs and under very difficult circumstances is proving to be a truly great leader. Putin on the other hand has proven to be totally incompetent. Not only has his war on Ukraine not so far succeeded, and not only is that unlikely to do so, but Putin has doomed Russian to sink into third world status and failed state status over the next decade. What ever drugs Zelensky is taking, quick, send some to Putin.
 
barbos said:
Jayjay said:
It seems like there is yet another massive barrage of cruise missiles hitting civilian infrastructure today. It's either a sign of desperation, or a sign that Russia's stockpiles are nowhere near depleted and they can go on for quite a while.
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Western analysts have been perplexed by the fact that Russian millitary was not destroying infrastructure since the beginning. Now they do and you keep complaining. There is no way to satisfy you.
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Yes there is:

GET THE FUCK OUT OF UKRAINE!

Stop bombing them at all. Do you have any inkling of what you are doing? Do you think it is fun to destroy their infrastructure? Are you laughing with glee at your wit? Do you really think the genocide you are engaging in, is really justified? The people you are killing don’t deserve to live?

if this is your attitude towards war and it’s realities it is obvious that you are utterly clueless. You have never seen war. You are a coward, hiding behind the internet. You won’t even go to the front like your countrymen, who are dying in droves or surrendering like sheep.

This war will bring nothing but shame to Russia. Fuck Putin. FUCK RUSSIA! Your country is useless and incompetent. You are not part of the community of nations anymore.
 
SLD said:
You have never seen war. You are a coward, hiding behind the internet. You won’t even go to the front like your countrymen, who are dying in droves or surrendering like sheep.

This war will bring nothing but shame to Russia.
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All very true. But some of us live under compulsions imposed by externalities, and are powerless to alter that arrangement.
I'm sure barbos is less than comfortable having to mouth obvious BS - his very transparent half-belief in what he's saying makes him an object of pity, and those among us who are free of such constraints should look at him and rejoice in the fact that we are not under the thumb of a genocidal maniac like Putler.
 
Reports are coming in, cold weather in Ukraine is killing Russian recruits. Daytime temperatures are above freezing and rainy. Well below freezing at night. A deadly combination. Ill prepred and equiped conscripts are suffering terribly.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
Reports are coming in, cold weather in Ukraine is killing Russian recruits. Daytime temperatures are above freezing and rainy. Well below freezing at night. A deadly combination. Ill prepred and equiped conscripts are suffering terribly.
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Weather is supposed to be below freezing next week for the highs, or maybe barely above. The rain has hampered operations and there is a lot of mud. Kind of like the Germans in October of 41. The freeze allowed Germans to make a stab at Moscow, but they just weren’t prepared for the cold. I don’t think that Ukraine will make the same mistake. Expect a major push starting the first week of December. But in the East or west? Or down the center? I’d focus on the west. But it’s difficult to cross the wide Dnipro. It’s about 1200 feet At it’s narrowest point near Kherson. It may freeze over, but not sure if in such a state it could support a military crossing. Not sure if they have the craft to make such a wide water crossing.
 
Listening to these Russian Talking Heads is creepy how willing they are to destroy. They just name it as “enemy” and “evil” and decide it’s okay to kill in anoter country.

“First we were brothers, but then we found out they hate us, so they must be Nazis and we have to kill them all. The civilians? They should have moved to Russia.”

 
Cheerful Charlie said:
Reports are coming in, cold weather in Ukraine is killing Russian recruits. Daytime temperatures are above freezing and rainy. Well below freezing at night. A deadly combination. Ill prepred and equiped conscripts are suffering terribly.
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That's dangerous weather! Ill-trained recruits aren't going to realize how deadly and even if they did they're not equipped for it.
 
We need an immediate ban on Gore-Tex.

I have a Gore-Tex rain shell and waterproof shoes.

I imagine Ukrainians have up to date NATO clothing. MREs.
 
Fall in Ukraine ends with rainy days and freezing nights. The winter comes and it is freezing all the time. Sometimes there is the Siberian anticyclone that brings extreme cold to Ukraine and Russia. Then spring comes. Early spring is rainy with freezing nights. And mud. It is going to be a long and miserable time to be a Russian conscript.
 
SLD said:
Cheerful Charlie said:
Reports are coming in, cold weather in Ukraine is killing Russian recruits. Daytime temperatures are above freezing and rainy. Well below freezing at night. A deadly combination. Ill prepred and equiped conscripts are suffering terribly.
Click to expand...
Weather is supposed to be below freezing next week for the highs, or maybe barely above. The rain has hampered operations and there is a lot of mud. Kind of like the Germans in October of 41. The freeze allowed Germans to make a stab at Moscow, but they just weren’t prepared for the cold. I don’t think that Ukraine will make the same mistake. Expect a major push starting the first week of December. But in the East or west? Or down the center? I’d focus on the west. But it’s difficult to cross the wide Dnipro. It’s about 1200 feet At it’s narrowest point near Kherson. It may freeze over, but not sure if in such a state it could support a military crossing. Not sure if they have the craft to make such a wide water crossing.
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I'm not sure if it gets cold enough for the Dnipro to freeze over, at least in the river mouth where Kherson is. According to google it requires about a 20-day spell of sub-zero temperatures. I don't think Ukraine can attack in Kherson, but they might attempt special operations in the Kinburn spit to keep Russias busy.

The thing is, that Russia doesn't give a shit about it's mobiks freezing up. Unlike the west that can't engage in even a limited military operations abroad without risking huge backlash at home, the political leadership in Russia faces zero consequences if some yokels from the periphery freeze their asses off or get killed in the trenches. There's plenty more where they came from. The convicts that Wagner uses are probably even more expendable; who's going to miss a murderer or a rapist if they get blown to pieces?

When the ground freezes, it allows offenses, but history has shown that Russia is better at it than Ukraine. I think the war of attrition will continue with neither side making huge gains. Maybe Russia could take Bakhmut eventually, but then again, Ukraine could take Svatove or Kreminna.
 
TV and credit cards said:
Meanwhile, back in reality, UAF precision targets supply lines from just south of Zaporizhzhia to Melitopol while RAF tries to dumb bomb thier way to a few more meters of mud in Donstsk. Russia is just playing for the home audience anymore. It looks like they no longer have the ability to fight a modern conventional war. Give it a few weeks for the ground to freeze up, hopefully we'll see a nice push east of Zaporizhzhia toward Melitopol. UAF needs to surround Zaporizhzhia without taking the battle there. Just starve the orcs out.
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Ukraine nuclear boss says he sees signs Russia may leave occupied plant
Get while the gettin's good. There was a couple Russian milbloggers a week back claiming Ukrainian forces were building up in the area.
 
I would not say the Russians are better in winter.

In WWII I'd say it was a matter of Germans being totally unprepared for winter. Hitler thought it would be over quickly. They also had maintenance and supply problems.

The Russians(Soviets) advantage was numbers and supplies from North America. The first time I reaD A WWII casualty summary my jaw dropped. Russian-Soviet total casualty estimates run from 20-30 million. It was a war of attrition.

Russian tanks compared to German tanks were simple, easy to maintain, and rugged.

Russian tactics today seem to be the same, mass attack and disregard for casualties.
 
steve_bank said:
Russian tanks compared to German tanks were simple, easy to maintain, and rugged.
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I was under the impression that the main difference between German and Russian machinery in the winter was that Russia had cold weather engine and lubricating oil. German machinery froze up when their oil turned to glue in the cold
 
One problem the Germans had was many weapons programs that never went into large scale production,

Their tanks got heavier and more complicated. Hitler was obscessed with fiding a knock out weapon.

The T tanks were cheap and easy to mass produce. Tank crews waited at factories to get a tank as it came off the assembly line. Don't know anything about legendary, post war the T tanks became the most used tank around the world. Up through the 80s there was a third paty industry making spare parts. I think Argentina or Bazil was a major parts supplier.

Dictators always needed tanks to display.
 
SLD said:
barbos said:
Jayjay said:
It seems like there is yet another massive barrage of cruise missiles hitting civilian infrastructure today. It's either a sign of desperation, or a sign that Russia's stockpiles are nowhere near depleted and they can go on for quite a while.
Click to expand...
Western analysts have been perplexed by the fact that Russian millitary was not destroying infrastructure since the beginning. Now they do and you keep complaining. There is no way to satisfy you.
Click to expand...
Yes there is:

GET THE FUCK OUT OF UKRAINE!

Stop bombing them at all. Do you have any inkling of what you are doing? Do you think it is fun to destroy their infrastructure? Are you laughing with glee at your wit? Do you really think the genocide you are engaging in, is really justified? The people you are killing don’t deserve to live?

if this is your attitude towards war and it’s realities it is obvious that you are utterly clueless. You have never seen war. You are a coward, hiding behind the internet. You won’t even go to the front like your countrymen, who are dying in droves or surrendering like sheep.

This war will bring nothing but shame to Russia. Fuck Putin. FUCK RUSSIA! Your country is useless and incompetent. You are not part of the community of nations anymore.
Click to expand...
Agree with SLD. Barbos: easy to satisfy the west: get your troops the fuck out of Ukraine. No problemo.
 
steve_bank said:
I would not say the Russians are better in winter.

In WWII I'd say it was a matter of Germans being totally unprepared for winter. Hitler thought it would be over quickly. They also had maintenance and supply problems.

The Russians(Soviets) advantage was numbers and supplies from North America. The first time I reaD A WWII casualty summary my jaw dropped. Russian-Soviet total casualty estimates run from 20-30 million. It was a war of attrition.

Russian tanks compared to German tanks were simple, easy to maintain, and rugged.

Russian tactics today seem to be the same, mass attack and disregard for casualties.
Click to expand...
Russia seems to be repeating it's WWII approach, throwing as many bodies at it as it takes. It's just weapons have grown a lot more lethal, that's no going to work very well.
 
Patooka said:
Jayjay said:
When the ground freezes, it allows offenses, but history has shown that Russia is better at it than Ukraine.
Click to expand...
Seriously? The last nine months seem to disagree with you quite strongly.
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I follow the war daily and what I've seen is Russia attacking, and Ukraine repelling the attacks. Not vice versa.

The notable exceptions are the Russian withdrawal from the north near the beginning of the war (while making advances elsewhere), Ukraine's counter-attack in Kharkiv oblast (which was before the mobilization and didn't get as far as it should have), and most recently Russians withdrawing from Kherson (which was kind of a special case, where Russia got itself stuck in an impossible to supply situation and was being bled to death).

Defending is easier than attacking. Especially if you've got time to prepare fortifications, which is what Russia's been doing for months; in Donbas, for years.
 
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