How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[crazyfingers]

Putin himself could have done it as a false flag operation to incite greater public support for his revanchist war against Ukraine. After all, he has been accused of doing just that with a bomb planted in an apartment building that was used to justify renewing the war with Chechen back when Putin was just starting to gain a name for himself with the public. However, the ISIS claim is also plausible. Ukraine is interested in attacks on Russian soil, but those are primarily at military and infrastructure targets. Shooting up a public concert event in a large shopping area isn't their usual type of tactic, especially since it would be likely to rally Russian public opinion in favor of Putin's war. And Putin is flogging a alleged Ukrainian connection to try to do just that.

Ukraine would never do something like this attack in Russia. Western support would crumble.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The Kremlin being full of shit in 3, 2, 1...
Interfax quoted the FSB security service as saying the four suspected gunmen had been arrested while heading to the Ukrainian border, and that they had contacts in Ukraine.
The Russian version of Rahm Emanuel's "Never let a serious crisis go to waste".

Militant Islamist group Islamic State claimed responsibility for Friday's rampage but there were indications that Russia was pursuing a Ukrainian link, despite emphatic denials from Ukrainian officials that Kyiv had anything to do with it.

Yep. You could almost write this bit of history before it even happens.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/two-suspects-moscow-attack-detained-after-car-chase-lawmaker-2024-03-23/

Moving Russian history along in a timely fashion, we now have a "prepared window". Prepared. But by whom?

In a televised address, Putin said 11 people had been detained, including the four gunmen. "They tried to hide and moved towards Ukraine, where, according to preliminary data, a window was prepared for them on the Ukrainian side to cross the state border," he said.

 

[bilby]

Taliban is the result of the 1980s invasion of Afghanistan.

No, no; You're thinking of the noble and brave freedom fighters of the Mujahideen. These are completely different from the vile and cowardly terrorists of the Taliban.

(Despite being the exact same folks).

James Bond would never have aligned himself with the Taliban.

 

[TomC]

Taliban is the result of the 1980s invasion of Afghanistan.

No, no; You're thinking of the noble and brave freedom fighters of the Mujahideen. These are completely different from the vile and cowardly terrorists of the Taliban.

(Despite being the exact same folks).

Someone who would know once pointed out how likely it was that Osama bin Laden's first real weapon was supplied by the US under Kissinger.
He became a celebrity in the Islamic world because he fought so bravely for the Afghan Muslim people fending off some godless imperialists. When he was born wealthy and could have lived a life of comfort and privilege.

As long as he was fighting the enemies of America, we supplied him. When he turned his sights on US he became a terrorist.
Tom

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Putin himself could have done it as a false flag operation to incite greater public support for his revanchist war against Ukraine. After all, he has been accused of doing just that with a bomb planted in an apartment building that was used to justify renewing the war with Chechen back when Putin was just starting to gain a name for himself with the public. However, the ISIS claim is also plausible. Ukraine is interested in attacks on Russian soil, but those are primarily at military and infrastructure targets. Shooting up a public concert event in a large shopping area isn't their usual type of tactic, especially since it would be likely to rally Russian public opinion in favor of Putin's war. And Putin is flogging a alleged Ukrainian connection to try to do just that.

I'm puzzled at this point.

I would have put Putin at the top of the suspect list, but if he's the culprit what does he gain by blaming ISIS?

But this doesn't look like ISIS, either--got away clean while there were still lots of targets? They're not good at knowing when to pull out.

 

[Elixir]

Nobody in Russia is talking about Pootey’s foolish adventures, failures and lies.

 

[lpetrich]

Another alleged culprit I've seen is Israel.

That's very bizarre. Israel's long-distance attacks are all targeted: all but the last one of the attacks that I've listed here.

•  Operation Opera - 1981 - E Iraq - 500 km - attacked nuclear reactor
•  Operation Outside the Box - 2007 - E Syria - 500 km - attacked suspected nuclear reactor
•  Operation Wooden Leg - 1985 - N Tunisia - 2,300 km - attacked PLO headquarters
•  Entebbe raid - 1976 - S Uganda - 3,500 km - rescued hostages from Entebbe Airport
•  Stuxnet - ~ 2010 - Iran - computer worm for sabotaging uranium-enrichment equipment
•  Crocus City Hall attack - 2024 - near Moscow, Russia - 2,600 km - terrorist attack on Crocus City concert hall: 133 killed, some 100 injured

It seems pointless for Israel's leaders to order such an attack so far from home against a country that is not very hostile to it.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Putin himself could have done it as a false flag operation to incite greater public support for his revanchist war against Ukraine. After all, he has been accused of doing just that with a bomb planted in an apartment building that was used to justify renewing the war with Chechen back when Putin was just starting to gain a name for himself with the public. However, the ISIS claim is also plausible. Ukraine is interested in attacks on Russian soil, but those are primarily at military and infrastructure targets. Shooting up a public concert event in a large shopping area isn't their usual type of tactic, especially since it would be likely to rally Russian public opinion in favor of Putin's war. And Putin is flogging a alleged Ukrainian connection to try to do just that.

I'm puzzled at this point.

I would have put Putin at the top of the suspect list, but if he's the culprit what does he gain by blaming ISIS?

But this doesn't look like ISIS, either--got away clean while there were still lots of targets? They're not good at knowing when to pull out.

That they got away indicates that emergency response was slow.

 

[Swammerdami]

I see on the news that Ukraine is desperately short of ammunition and on the verge of collapse. This is because Speaker Johnson is kowtowing to the House's pro-Putin "Freedom" Caucus.

Isn't it possible for Germany and a few other NATO countries to bridge the gap? To commit to, say, at least a few weeks' supply of munitions, hoping that the GOP's pro-Putin treason is thwarted by then? (For that matter, doesn't Commander-in-Chief Biden have emergency power to help an ally without Congressional approval? And what about rich non-NATO allies helping out?)

I am NOT adopting the Trumpist line that NATO allies must do more IN GENERAL. But this is an EMERGENCY; are they helping Ukraine right now?

 

[TV and credit cards]

I see on the news that Ukraine is desperately short of ammunition and on the verge of collapse. This is because Speaker Johnson is kowtowing to the House's pro-Putin "Freedom" Caucus.

Isn't it possible for Germany and a few other NATO countries to bridge the gap? To commit to, say, at least a few weeks' supply of munitions, hoping that the GOP's pro-Putin treason is thwarted by then? (For that matter, doesn't Commander-in-Chief Biden have emergency power to help an ally without Congressional approval? And what about rich non-NATO allies helping out?)

I am NOT adopting the Trumpist line that NATO allies must do more IN GENERAL. But this is an EMERGENCY; are they helping Ukraine right now?

Various EU countries are supplying Ukraine to the extent they can. Germany is still waffling some on items like long range missiles. The US is also still giving, through $300M in found DoD funds. Also Biden can transfer items to other nations as "excess" who can then transfer them to Ukraine. I know one sticking point in increasing the amount of munitions from EU countries is the manufacturer's need for long term contracts in order to increase production in a meaningful way. So in all this, Ukraine is getting the minimum of what it needs, if that. I think what we are seeing here is simply the disparity in the US's ability compared to all others.
What is needed, what has been needed is Ukraine provided the ability to destroy Russia's means of munitions production. Without this, this is truly a war of attrition that Russia will eventually win. This is why Ukraine is targeting Russian oil facilities to try and at least hit them economically. Now, nobody likes this (save for US Republicans) as it can have some effect on the price of gasoline during this election year but what's a poor Ukraine to do? It's fighting for its very existence. So, oil markets be damned.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Another alleged culprit I've seen is Israel.

That's very bizarre. Israel's long-distance attacks are all targeted: all but the last one of the attacks that I've listed here.

•  Operation Opera - 1981 - E Iraq - 500 km - attacked nuclear reactor
•  Operation Outside the Box - 2007 - E Syria - 500 km - attacked suspected nuclear reactor
•  Operation Wooden Leg - 1985 - N Tunisia - 2,300 km - attacked PLO headquarters
•  Entebbe raid - 1976 - S Uganda - 3,500 km - rescued hostages from Entebbe Airport
•  Stuxnet - ~ 2010 - Iran - computer worm for sabotaging uranium-enrichment equipment
•  Crocus City Hall attack - 2024 - near Moscow, Russia - 2,600 km - terrorist attack on Crocus City concert hall: 133 killed, some 100 injured

It seems pointless for Israel's leaders to order such an attack so far from home against a country that is not very hostile to it.

Something bad happened, the Jews must be at fault!

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Putin himself could have done it as a false flag operation to incite greater public support for his revanchist war against Ukraine. After all, he has been accused of doing just that with a bomb planted in an apartment building that was used to justify renewing the war with Chechen back when Putin was just starting to gain a name for himself with the public. However, the ISIS claim is also plausible. Ukraine is interested in attacks on Russian soil, but those are primarily at military and infrastructure targets. Shooting up a public concert event in a large shopping area isn't their usual type of tactic, especially since it would be likely to rally Russian public opinion in favor of Putin's war. And Putin is flogging a alleged Ukrainian connection to try to do just that.

I'm puzzled at this point.

I would have put Putin at the top of the suspect list, but if he's the culprit what does he gain by blaming ISIS?

But this doesn't look like ISIS, either--got away clean while there were still lots of targets? They're not good at knowing when to pull out.

That they got away indicates that emergency response was slow.

What's relevant to me is that they stopped shooting while there were still plenty of targets and apparently before any emergency response. That doesn't sound like ISIS. They would shoot as long as they could. Admittedly, it could be ISIS if they didn't give the shooters enough ammo.

Which gives me an interesting idea--perhaps this was "ISIS", but Putin was actually allowing them through the gates. And deliberately didn't give them a lot of ammo so they would get away rather than risk one only being wounded by the emergency responders.

 

[Elixir]

Something bad happened, the Jews must be at fault!

Correlation isn’t causation, Loren!

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Another alleged culprit I've seen is Israel.

That's very bizarre. Israel's long-distance attacks are all targeted: all but the last one of the attacks that I've listed here.

•  Operation Opera - 1981 - E Iraq - 500 km - attacked nuclear reactor
•  Operation Outside the Box - 2007 - E Syria - 500 km - attacked suspected nuclear reactor
•  Operation Wooden Leg - 1985 - N Tunisia - 2,300 km - attacked PLO headquarters
•  Entebbe raid - 1976 - S Uganda - 3,500 km - rescued hostages from Entebbe Airport
•  Stuxnet - ~ 2010 - Iran - computer worm for sabotaging uranium-enrichment equipment
•  Crocus City Hall attack - 2024 - near Moscow, Russia - 2,600 km - terrorist attack on Crocus City concert hall: 133 killed, some 100 injured

It seems pointless for Israel's leaders to order such an attack so far from home against a country that is not very hostile to it.

Pointless? You listed five targeted missions and one brazen terrorist attack. I'd never have considered Israel.

 

[lpetrich]

It was me who listed those missions. I was trying to show that the Crocus City attack are out of character for Israel's long-distance attacks.

That attack is also out of character for Ukraine's long-distance attacks, which are either attacks on military bases and infrastructure, or else killings of people considered traitors, like

The Ukrainian Fingerprints On A Shadowy Assassination Campaign On Russian Soil - Illya Kyva, Daria Dugina, Maksim Fomin (Vladlen Tatarsky), Yevgeny Prilepin, Oleh Popov, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, Arseny Pavlov

-

The attackers themselves are Tajik citizens, and Islamic State has claimed credit for the attack.

Taliban Strongly Condemns Moscow Concert Hall Attack

 

[lpetrich]

How Putin's Police State Leaves Russia Vulnerable To Terrorist Attacks

A week after the last Russian presidential election, in 2018, a fire at a crowded mall in Siberia killed more than 60 people, many of them children.

Five days after the conclusion of this year’s voting, camouflage-clad gunmen opened fire at a concert hall just outside Moscow, killing at least 115 people in an attack claimed by the militant group Islamic State.

he Kremlin casts President Vladimir Putin as something close to a savior, a strong leader who has brought stability and security following the chaos of the Soviet collapse.

The mass-casualty events that have punctuated his nearly 25 years as president or prime minister -- and the recurring images of explosions, flames, and helpless victims desperate to escape harm -- badly undermine that narrative. Instead, analysts say, they tell a story of a leader whose focus on the protection and prolongation of his own power have come at the expense of the security of the people.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The attackers themselves are Tajik citizens, and Islamic State has claimed credit for the attack.

Taliban Strongly Condemns Moscow Concert Hall Attack

*spit take*

Oh look, the Taliban is indicating they may want help to manage terrorists in their nation.

 

[lpetrich]

NATO - News: Sweden officially joins NATO , 07-Mar.-2024 At NATO's site.

Sweden’s flag is raised at NATO headquarters to cement its place as the 32nd member of the alliance | AP News

 Enlargement of NATO links to  Finland–NATO relations and  Sweden–NATO relations

Looking at public polling: Finland changed from opposition to support of NATO membership after Russia invaded Ukraine, and Sweden changed from maybe to definitely yes after that event.

Finland was neutral after WWII, and the Soviet Union tolerated it despite it being a capitalist country. This neutrality continued after the Soviet Union's breakup, likely out of not wanting to pick a fight.

Sweden was neutral after the Napoleonic Wars, saying neutral in WWI and WWII and afterward.

Most of the legislature votes were by large margins, with opposition and abstention percentages being in the single digits, with the exception of France: 15% against and 17% abstaining.

The two nations' accession process started in the beginning June 2022, and all the NATO members but Hungary and Turkey voted to accept both nations by the end of September 2022. They voted on the same day, and with usually identical margins, though with discrepancies of 1 or 2 votes here and there. One Polish legislator said that he misvoted, mistakenly thinking that the vote was about something else.

 

[lpetrich]

The two exceptions took much more time.

For Finland, first Hungary, then Turkey agreed over March 27 - April 1 in 2023, and Finland officially joined the alliance on 2023 April 4.

Finland supported Sweden joining around then, but Turkey agreed over January 23 - 26 of this year, and Hungary over Feb 25 - March 1 of this year, and Sweden officially joined the alliance on 2024 March 7.


This completes a major policy defeat for Russia. Two nations to its northwest are now members of NATO, and the Baltic Sea is now a NATO lake except for two bits of Russian coastline, near St. Petersburg & near Kaliningrad.

Sweden Enters NATO, a Blow to Moscow and a Boost to the Baltic Nations - The New York Times - "With the addition of Sweden to NATO, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia finds himself facing an enlarged and motivated alliance."

However,
Sweden’s veteran peace movement stung by ‘reckless’ entry to Nato | Sweden | The Guardian

Under the driving rain of a Brussels springtime, the Swedish flag was raised on Monday outside Nato’s headquarters. The organisation’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, welcomed the alliance’s newest member in its native language: “To all Swedes, I say: ‘Välkommen till Nato’.” The Swedish prime minister, Ulf Kristersson , vowed that his country would be a “proud member” driven by “unity and solidarity”.

But, while he basks in the glow of his country finally joining Nato after months of delays, Sweden’s once thriving peace movement is smarting.

Once widely visible in debates and on the streets – particularly over nuclear weapons, disarmament and the Vietnam war – the movement had already been on the wane since the end of the cold war.

One of these activists grumbles “It was perceived to be totally naive to talk about peace. That space was not there. We were called ‘naive’ or ‘Putinist’, making an argument that was only serving the interests of Russia.”

 

[lpetrich]

With Sweden in NATO, the Alliance Has New Ways to Strike Russia's Prime Targets

Former Lithuanian foreign minister:
Linas Linkevicius on X: "After #Sweden was integrated into the Alliance, the Baltic Sea became an internal #NATO sea. If #Russia dares to challenge NATO, Kaliningrad would be "neutralized" first. Russia's previous false accusations that it is surrounded by NATO are now becoming a reality. (pic link)" / X

What this means for the Baltic states, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia:

Russia may try to gain land access to Kaliningrad Oblast by conquering the Suwalki Gap on the border of Poland and Lithuania, about 65 mi / 105 km long. This will several the Baltic states from the rest of the NATO nations, making them much harder to defend. But with Finland and Sweden in NATO, it will be much easier. Estonia can be resupplied from Finland, and Finland from Sweden.

 Enlargement of NATO

• Aspiring: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Eurasian Georgia, Ukraine
• Debated: Austria, Cyprus, Ireland, Kosovo, Malta, Moldova, Serbia

Of these, Ireland, Austria, B&H, Serbia, and Kosovo are completely surrounded by NATO countries. Switzerland is also completely surrounded, but it has no interest in joining NATO.