How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[SLD]

Now you’re facing devastating economic sanctions and a well supplied and battle tested Ukrainian Army.

LOL, OK.

And sorry to disappoint you they are not well supplied. They use soviet era weapons.
They were supplied with few Turkish attack UAVs (useful against islamic terrorists only) and bunch of american anti-tank missiles with expired warranties.
Ukraine has no meaningful Air Power and very limited AA capabilities (Soviet Era crap)
Their Army will collapse faster than Afghan Army.

Georgian Army was well supplied and trained before they attacked South Ossetia.
But they lost to a weak russian army. Since then russian army was better maintained.

I'd be a little careful here. The Ukrainians are better armed than what you think. But the larger issue here is that they are motivated. Their back is up against the wall. Russians want to invade in order to provide a land bridge to the area where their officers like to vacation. The Ukrainians are fighting for their homes. Russia will take the country eventually. But it will be expensive for them.

What are you smoking?
Nobody is going to invade them, but if it happens, there will be no war.
Motivated my ass. They have maybe couple of battalions of nazis who are motivated.
The rest will not fight. Georgians were motivated and lost to ... a much less equipped russian army. Russian army has changed a lot since then, they have shitload of new shiny toys and practiced in Syria.

Looking at some old posts. This one really aged well. There’d be no invasion and if there was they won’t fight.

I see Putin is now vowing to fight it out to the bitter end and let Russians die needlessly until he wins, using his greater population to win a war of attrition. Might work. Will take only a decade or two at the present rate of conquest. Good luck with that, Barbos. Pooty will soon come to recruit your 60+ year old butt.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Now you’re facing devastating economic sanctions and a well supplied and battle tested Ukrainian Army.

LOL, OK.

And sorry to disappoint you they are not well supplied. They use soviet era weapons.
They were supplied with few Turkish attack UAVs (useful against islamic terrorists only) and bunch of american anti-tank missiles with expired warranties.
Ukraine has no meaningful Air Power and very limited AA capabilities (Soviet Era crap)
Their Army will collapse faster than Afghan Army.

Georgian Army was well supplied and trained before they attacked South Ossetia.
But they lost to a weak russian army. Since then russian army was better maintained.

I'd be a little careful here. The Ukrainians are better armed than what you think. But the larger issue here is that they are motivated. Their back is up against the wall. Russians want to invade in order to provide a land bridge to the area where their officers like to vacation. The Ukrainians are fighting for their homes. Russia will take the country eventually. But it will be expensive for them.

What are you smoking?
Nobody is going to invade them, but if it happens, there will be no war.
Motivated my ass. They have maybe couple of battalions of nazis who are motivated.
The rest will not fight. Georgians were motivated and lost to ... a much less equipped russian army. Russian army has changed a lot since then, they have shitload of new shiny toys and practiced in Syria.

Looking at some old posts. This one really aged well. There’d be no invasion and if there was they won’t fight.

I see Putin is now vowing to fight it out to the bitter end and let Russians die needlessly until he wins, using his greater population to win a war of attrition. Might work. Will take only a decade or two at the present rate of conquest. Good luck with that, Barbos. Pooty will soon come to recruit your 60+ year old butt.

As a matter of fact, looking at this morning's ISW report

Putin stated that people who have reached retirement age have experience and knowledge that is useful to the Russian economy and that many pensioners have "aspirations" to continue working.

When Putin says you have "aspirations", you have aspirations, or else.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Now you’re facing devastating economic sanctions and a well supplied and battle tested Ukrainian Army.

LOL, OK.

And sorry to disappoint you they are not well supplied. They use soviet era weapons.
They were supplied with few Turkish attack UAVs (useful against islamic terrorists only) and bunch of american anti-tank missiles with expired warranties.
Ukraine has no meaningful Air Power and very limited AA capabilities (Soviet Era crap)
Their Army will collapse faster than Afghan Army.

Georgian Army was well supplied and trained before they attacked South Ossetia.
But they lost to a weak russian army. Since then russian army was better maintained.

I'd be a little careful here. The Ukrainians are better armed than what you think. But the larger issue here is that they are motivated. Their back is up against the wall. Russians want to invade in order to provide a land bridge to the area where their officers like to vacation. The Ukrainians are fighting for their homes. Russia will take the country eventually. But it will be expensive for them.

What are you smoking?
Nobody is going to invade them, but if it happens, there will be no war.
Motivated my ass. They have maybe couple of battalions of nazis who are motivated.
The rest will not fight. Georgians were motivated and lost to ... a much less equipped russian army. Russian army has changed a lot since then, they have shitload of new shiny toys and practiced in Syria.

Looking at some old posts. This one really aged well. There’d be no invasion and if there was they won’t fight.

I see Putin is now vowing to fight it out to the bitter end and let Russians die needlessly until he wins, using his greater population to win a war of attrition. Might work. Will take only a decade or two at the present rate of conquest. Good luck with that, Barbos. Pooty will soon come to recruit your 60+ year old butt.

Yikes! Yes Barbos post above was from December 2021! Yes he was off just a little!

 

[Elixir]

Ukraine has no meaningful Air Power and very limited AA capabilities (Soviet Era crap)

Well, he was right in one respect - Soviet era stuff is crap.

 

[aupmanyav]

WUT? Y’all have been soaking up some weird propaganda. The US was Gorby’s biggest advocate. It was the Russian oligarchy that couldn’t afford to let him level the capitalist playing field.

I did not get that after reading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Gorbachev. Both Nixon and Reagan failed him (otherwise, perhaps the world would have been different).

And this justifies war?

No. This is history.

 

[laughing dog]

Really? If a Gorbachev were in power, there’d be no difference?

Gorbachev wanted to be friends with West but US did not like it. To whom would they show their military might?

That is nuts. The US was drooling over the prospects of a more “western “ Russia.

 

[aupmanyav]

It is a global tragedy that so many people are under the thumb of a pretend democracy, promoting authoritarianism worldwide.

I suppose you are not talking of Narendra Modi. We just had a completely fair democratic election all over India (including Kashmir, Punjab and the Christian majority states of Eastern India) in which some 642 million people exercised their franchise.

 

[aupmanyav]

Why do you have an army? You should just surrender like you are saying Ukraine should do. That's the path to peace. Your army will just make China uneasy and they will have to respond. See how easy it is to have peace and save lots of money too?

This is the third time that I am saying that I am not a peacenik. China's Armed Forces make us uneasy just as (as you say) Indian Armed Forces make China uneasy. We will desist from doing something that makes China respond. But if the Chinese do something which annoys us, then we too will respond. China, in increasing its might is responding to the might of Western powers and not just of India. China is the new competitor of West. Yes, a war-less world can save a lot of money and allow people to live in peace. India spent USD 83.6 billion on Armed forces in 2023, fourth highest in the world.

 

[aupmanyav]

That is nuts. The US was drooling over the prospects of a more “western “ Russia.

Did they do anything to save Gorbachev? Did the help when Gorbachev asked for money? They just watched in amusement from the balcony. And as a result, Putin is here.

 

[Shadowy Man]

When Putin says you have "aspirations", you have aspirations, or else.

in Soviet Russia aspirations have you!!

 

[Elixir]

Really? If a Gorbachev were in power, there’d be no difference?

Gorbachev wanted to be friends with West but US did not like it. To whom would they show their military might?

That is nuts. The US was drooling over the prospects of a more “western “ Russia.

True. I was alive and politically somewhat aware at the time, and was eager and hopeful to see a more democratic regime in Russia having grown up in the Red Scare era. And that seemed to be the general sentiment.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Really? If a Gorbachev were in power, there’d be no difference?

Gorbachev wanted to be friends with West but US did not like it. To whom would they show their military might?

That is nuts. The US was drooling over the prospects of a more “western “ Russia.

True. I was alive and politically somewhat aware at the time, and was eager and hopeful to see a more democratic regime in Russia having grown up in the Red Scare era. And that seemed to be the general sentiment.

Agreed. The idea that the “US did not like it” seems in conflict with reality.

 

[bilby]

True. I was alive and politically somewhat aware at the time

I was alive and I waited. I was alive and I waited for this. Right there, right then, there was no other place I would rather be; watching the world wake up from history.




With heartfelt apologies to Jesus Jones.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Really? If a Gorbachev were in power, there’d be no difference?

Gorbachev wanted to be friends with West but US did not like it. To whom would they show their military might?

That is nuts. The US was drooling over the prospects of a more “western “ Russia.

True. I was alive and politically somewhat aware at the time, and was eager and hopeful to see a more democratic regime in Russia having grown up in the Red Scare era. And that seemed to be the general sentiment.

Agreed. The idea that the “US did not like it” seems in conflict with reality.

True. The US closed hundreds of military installations at the end of the Cold War under BRAC. "Show off our military might"? We were happy to stop the arms race and reduce nuclear stockpiles.

 

[Elixir]

Y’know what’s really vexing?
That Modi’s regime is promulgating the falsehoods that Aupy is trying to sell here.

I don’t know for sure that he is getting his propaganda from Modi and not from Putin, but he seems to believe a lot of the a-historical crap he says.
I almost hope he’s just another operative of the babs variety rather a representative of a message that is being rammed down the throats of 1.2 billion hapless people.

 

[laughing dog]

That is nuts. The US was drooling over the prospects of a more “western “ Russia.

Did they do anything to save Gorbachev? Did the help when Gorbachev asked for money? They just watched in amusement from the balcony. And as a result, Putin is here.

Save Gorbachev from what? The USSR was dissolving from the combined forces of corruption, lack of resources and internal contradictions.

Your analysis is a fascinating view of counterfactual history.

 

[TV and credit cards]

That is nuts. The US was drooling over the prospects of a more “western “ Russia.

Did they do anything to save Gorbachev? Did the help when Gorbachev asked for money? They just watched in amusement from the balcony. And as a result, Putin is here.

Save Gorbachev from what? The USSR was dissolving from the combined forces of corruption, lack of resources and internal contradictions.

Your analysis is a fascinating view of counterfactual history.

Falling oil prices during the late eighties, early nineties and trying to move the Soviet economy from defense production to a market one didn't help their situation. Sadly, Putin is creating a similar scenario. The Russian economy is holding up due to defense production. One day this will all be over. Then when all isn't forgiven overnight (sanctions immediately dropped), that will be the US' fault too. Maybe China and India can come to their rescue.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The USSR used to make good money selling weapons to other nations. Now Russia's weapon systems are proving nonviable on the battle field. That market has now dried up. Russia is having trouble producing aircraft in quantity, so they have nothing to sell anyway, as far as aircraft goes. Their electronics are not particularly capable compared to Western gear. Armata 14 tanks are conspicuous by their absence. New players in the armaments trade are doing well though. Notably, South Korea.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The USSR used to make good money selling weapons to other nations. Now Russia's weapon systems are proving nonviable on the battle field. That market has now dried up. Russia is having trouble producing aircraft in quantity, so they have nothing to sell anyway, as far as aircraft goes. Their electronics are not particularly capable compared to Western gear. Armata 14 tanks are conspicuous by their absence. New players in the armaments trade are doing well though. Notably, South Korea.

India has been pushing away from purchasing weapons from Russia for awhile now. They are buying from the US and relying on their own manufacturing. They're not likely to go back to Russia as training is costly and time consuming.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Why do you have an army? You should just surrender like you are saying Ukraine should do. That's the path to peace. Your army will just make China uneasy and they will have to respond. See how easy it is to have peace and save lots of money too?

This is the third time that I am saying that I am not a peacenik. China's Armed Forces make us uneasy just as (as you say) Indian Armed Forces make China uneasy. We will desist from doing something that makes China respond. But if the Chinese do something which annoys us, then we too will respond. China, in increasing its might is responding to the might of Western powers and not just of India. China is the new competitor of West. Yes, a war-less world can save a lot of money and allow people to live in peace. India spent USD 83.6 billion on Armed forces in 2023, fourth highest in the world.

I give you credit in the sense that you seem to be in control. I tried to push your buttons but you stayed rational. Kudos. The problem I have with your responses is that you say you are not a peacenik but that Ukraine should surrender. That contradicts. Why do you deny Ukraine the right of self defense you claim for yourself? Clearly you are conflicted.