How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Henry-Finland]

two days have been very good for the Ukrainians - many Russian smokers.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I go by the consensus on the global platforms I watch. Hard to imagine a conspiracy across all platforms to present false news.

Consensus would mean they are in agreement. And if you simply mean whichever side is presented more that means you'll follow whoever shouts the loudest.

That's why you have to consider what each side says about the other's arguments.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Eggs in Seattle are near $6

Oh c’mon. Seattle is a major city.
I live in a COUNTY of under 20k people.
Homegrown eggs are somewhat available at $6/doz. Supermarket eggs are $2.99-$7.99/doz depending on how “designer” you wanna get. And none of that has changed in the last year.

Closest grocery, cheapest eggs are $4/doz. But there are $2.49/18 eggs sitting in our fridge. Egg prices are highly variable and don't mean much.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

For example, Pakistani authorities used to pay something like USD 7 (Rs. 500) to the stone-throwers to hinder the operations of Indian military and USD 14 (Rs 1000) to the group leader. Where did they get money from, from clandestine channels (termed here as Hawala). They knew nothing serious is going to happen because Indian supreme court had banned the use of pallet guns or rubber bullets. The most the soldiers could do was to fire tear-gas.

How do you build a gun that can fire a pallet without it breaking up under the load? Even if you apply the load on the z axis you're not going to be able to get much of a launch velocity without snapping the material.

(Yeah, I know, you meant "pellet". But you got me picturing what a pallet gun would look like.)

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The trouble I see here is that Ukraine can quit this incursion easily if Russia just leaves. Russia, or I should say Putin, can't. Russia has invested too much into this illegal effort to step back. I doubt Putin would survive a withdrawal. Kind of depressing thought that people are being sent to their deaths by Putin because he fears for his own life, after fucking up so badly on Ukraine.

Despite all of the talk by barbos, Russia remains in a near WWI stalemate against an inferior (or what we thought was inferior, overjudging Russia's capabilities), and now they are ceding actual Russian territory to Ukraine because they have no capacity to defend itself. If Russia fought this as a manner of 'self defense against NATO', Russia has brutally demonstrated they are incapable of defending themselves (a theme of the nation for hundreds of years when excluding their only reliable defense mechanisms, cold and mud).

Worse, if Russia leaves Ukraine there are other provinces that would like to leave but are afraid to--and they'll probably leave if Russia loses. Putin has to maintain the aura of fear or his empire will fall apart.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

And somewhere between Moscow and Kursk, there's a motorcycle dispatch rider drunk in a ditch, with a satchel addressed to the border guards on the Ukraine-Kursk frontier, warning them that Ukraine might be massing forces across the border for a possible attack. He might deliver it one day, when he runs out of vodka.

Drunk in a ditch??

Nah, he was shot for running away from the enemy.

Oh, but he wasn't because he didn't have the fuel to do it with.

(I do agree the Russian system is horrible at reacting to change. We saw the same thing with China and Covid so I suspect it would prove a problem for their army, also.)

 

[bilby]

(Yeah, I know, you meant "pellet". But you got me picturing what a pallet gun would look like.)

Never bring a palette knife to a pallet gun fight.

 

[bilby]

The trouble I see here is that Ukraine can quit this incursion easily if Russia just leaves. Russia, or I should say Putin, can't. Russia has invested too much into this illegal effort to step back. I doubt Putin would survive a withdrawal. Kind of depressing thought that people are being sent to their deaths by Putin because he fears for his own life, after fucking up so badly on Ukraine.

Despite all of the talk by barbos, Russia remains in a near WWI stalemate against an inferior (or what we thought was inferior, overjudging Russia's capabilities), and now they are ceding actual Russian territory to Ukraine because they have no capacity to defend itself. If Russia fought this as a manner of 'self defense against NATO', Russia has brutally demonstrated they are incapable of defending themselves (a theme of the nation for hundreds of years when excluding their only reliable defense mechanisms, cold and mud).

Worse, if Russia leaves Ukraine there are other provinces that would like to leave but are afraid to--and they'll probably leave if Russia loses. Putin has to maintain the aura of fear or his empire will fall apart.

Yeah, sure. But what is his empire actually good for? Why should be care if it falls apart?

How does it substantively change his life if his empire is a tenth of its current size? He would still be able to own as many palaces, yachts, cars, girls, chefs, bodyguards, etc., etc., as he could ever want.

I just don't undertand the desire for power, land, or wealth, beyond what one can concievably use for oneself, ones familiy, and ones friends (a cadre that can only ever contain a maximum of 150 or so individuals). A billionaire can live just as well as a multibillionaire, and far better than a king, emperor, or tsar - if only because "mere" billionaires are rarely assassinated.

It's shit to be king. The folks who do the job having been trained to it from birth likely don't realise how much better it would be to be "merely" hyperwealthy; But those who aspire to rule, from relatively humble beginnings, must be fucking idiots.

And you have to delegate anyway, because there aren't enough hours in the day; So why not rotate the top job, or better still, divvy it up into smaller ministries? Who the fuck is dimwitted enough to actually want to be in charge, for fucking decades? And particularly to want to be in charge of a basket case like Russia?

How small a dick must you be born with, to be so desperate for prestige that you want to not only be in charge, but also to send millions of young men to die in wars to further grow that needless empire?

Anyone who actively wants to rule any country for more than a few years needs secure psychiatric care. If they want to rule a shit hole like Russia, that goes double. And if they want their holdings to actually get bigger, that goes treble.

Can we not just give him a nice trophy, and a medal engraved with "Best Dictator Ever - Winner of Everything", and have an end to the pointless invasion? I am damn sure that most of the Russian troops in Ukraine would be very happy to fuck off home, if only Utin were to have his crazy egoism sufficiently sated. Shit, he can have a nice sash with "WINNER" on it in gold letters, and a golden crown too. Chuck in a huge gala presentation with a Cordon Bleu meal and celebrity speakers and all - it's still likely going to be cheaper than one day's supply of ammunition for the soldiers on the Ukrainian front, and nobody needs to get hurt.

In short, what the fuck is that guy's problem, anyway??

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I have heard from vets that one of the things we have taught the Ukrainians is the way we train all solders it be leaders if need be.
Russia never figured this out.
That is their biggest weakness.
They just throw more bodies at the battle.

It's not a weakness; It's a survival strategy.

Dictators cannot risk having anyone beneath them who thinks they are able to be leaders.

Much less a whole army of them.

If Russian soldiers recognised that they have leadership ability, and that using it would not get them into instant and likely fatal trouble with their commanders, Putin would be overthrown within a week.

Even without that, if the soldiers know how to be leaders that means they'll likely understand when an order is suicidal.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Really? Once the war is over Ukraine is certain to join NATO.

You assume that Russia lose.

NATO and Nazis are a Putin bogeyman for the Russian people to justify his destruction of Ukraine and its people.

Russia and Putin are neocon&MIC bogeyman to justify millitary spending and destruction of Russia.

Bogeymen don't invade other countries.

 

[barbos]

Another one was signed into ukro-wehrmacht:

What? no comments?
Why not?

Speaking of Western Media. British (at least) media decided to skip parts of the Putin's speech regarding GB strikes of russian territory. I guess citizens don't need to know that.

 

[barbos]

Really? Once the war is over Ukraine is certain to join NATO.

You assume that Russia lose.

NATO and Nazis are a Putin bogeyman for the Russian people to justify his destruction of Ukraine and its people.

Russia and Putin are neocon&MIC bogeyman to justify millitary spending and destruction of Russia.

Bogeymen don't invade other countries.

With enough provovacatin they do.

 

[bilby]

I have heard from vets that one of the things we have taught the Ukrainians is the way we train all solders it be leaders if need be.
Russia never figured this out.
That is their biggest weakness.
They just throw more bodies at the battle.

It's not a weakness; It's a survival strategy.

Dictators cannot risk having anyone beneath them who thinks they are able to be leaders.

Much less a whole army of them.

If Russian soldiers recognised that they have leadership ability, and that using it would not get them into instant and likely fatal trouble with their commanders, Putin would be overthrown within a week.

Even without that, if the soldiers know how to be leaders that means they'll likely understand when an order is suicidal.

If they know anything about being soldiers, they'll likely understand when an order is suicidal.

The problem is that they also know that refusing it is suicidal.

 

[aupmanyav]

National Security Adviser to government of India, Ajit Doval, is flitting between Kiev and Moscow to see if a solution to the war can be found.
India and China have resolved their differences about 4 points in Ladakh and the Chinese forces have retreated from their Galvan valley positions.
Patience always pays, rather than blundering into a war.

 

[barbos]

National Security Adviser to government of India, Ajit Doval, is flitting between Kiev and Moscow to see if a solution to the war can be found.

Not while the Evil Clown rules Kiev regime.
Western regimes (primarely UK and US) painted themselves into a corner when they put everything on Kiev regime ability to overthrow Putin.
They themselves can't back down, BoJo said as much.
Both India and especially Brazil do not understand that it is not a war between Russia and Ukraine but a war between West and Russia. Well, probably understand but still cling to the idea that it can be resolved without West losing face.

 

[barbos]

Regarding UK strikes of pre 2014 Russian territory.
Apparently Biden Junta are letting UK to do it, while they themselves will be watching what happens.
Russia said that it would see it for what it is - UK striking Russian territory (Storm Shadow missiles) with all the consequences which that entails. It has to be said that UK has limited number of these missiles left, Russia have shot down most of them when they were launched on Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.
In US there are two factions, Pentagon and State Department Motherfuckers (that's a good name for football team).
Pentagon is against it for obvious reason, State Department motherfuckers are for it, they have nothing to lose and are on their way out, regardless of which idiot wins in November, Biden is senile and has no control over anything.
One of the prolific russian military commentators (retired colonel) suggests that Russia should strike a UK company which manufactures these missiles and explode small yield nuke high in the atmosphere over England. But it looks like most Russia will do is striking UK overseas military assets directly or indirectly through the proxies.
Anyway, as I said before, UK Media omitted part of the Putin's speech where he essentially promises appropriate response to UK attacks on russian territory.
I think UK motherfuckers still think Putin is bluffing.
Some suggested that this is a ploy to have Putin overthrown by russian hardliners after he fails to strike UK sufficiently hard.
Frankly, I find that theory fairly convincing. After all, it does look like US/UK were trying/hoping to have that with Prigozhin affair and this recent Kursk invasion. So it's not beyond imaginable that US/UK have some agents in russian governments who only pretend to be hardliners but in reality are western agents.
Otherwise I don't see any rationale in striking Russian territory.

 

[Harry Bosch]

National Security Adviser to government of India, Ajit Doval, is flitting between Kiev and Moscow to see if a solution to the war can be found.
India and China have resolved their differences about 4 points in Ladakh and the Chinese forces have retreated from their Galvan valley positions.
Patience always pays, rather than blundering into a war.

I appreciate your slight dig at Russia. This war will end someday. We need to find ways to stop wars. Stop aggression and bullying. The US bullies at times also. We have to find ways to stop larger countries from invading smaller ones.

 

[barbos]

The US bullies at ALL times also

Fixed for you.

 

[Rhea]

Another one was signed into ukro-wehrmacht:

What? no comments?
Why not?

Why not? Because you make no fucking sense.

WTF is ukro-wehrmacht?
No one knows who you are talking about.
All your point-obscuring insults and name calling make it impossible to discern whether you are always talking about every-ukrainian-at-all-times, or a specific person, or a government agency, or someone from the past or the present or a fantasy that you made up.

You are more concerned with sounding like a 12-year-old schoolyard bully-wannabe than making an actual point.
End result, you made no point. So no one answers your non-point.
At thins point you just sound like a piss-covered drunk on the floor in the corner of the bar, yelling at everyone who walks by calling them a nazi and blaming them for the fact that you’re on the ground covered in piss.

 

[barbos]

WTF is ukro-wehrmacht?

Really? you don't know? really?