Russia has already been testing NATO. Larger swarms of dittoes and fighter jet incursions.
I am thing of the od Cod War movie The Bedford Inc dent.
en.wikipedia.org
A keyed up hyper nanti communist American captain on a destroyere has a Russian submarine cornered after it violated NATO watars.
The crew is keyed up. The captain says to a reporter ' All I have to do is say 'fire'. Hearng it a crewman launches an anti sub weapon. When it hits the water the sub lances a nuclear torpedo.
A little known event. Amerces launched a scientific missile. To Russians on RADAR it looked looked a nuclear missile over the pole.
The Americans had made the international notations but it did not get passed down trough the Russian miltray
The Russian president was within minutes of launching a nuclear strike.
AI Overview
On January 25, 1995, Russian military radar operators mistook a Norwegian scientific research rocket for a U.S. nuclear missile attack, bringing the world to the brink of a retaliatory strike.What Happened During the IncidentThe Scientific Mission: Norwegian and American scientists launched a four-stage Black Brant XII sounding rocket from the Andøya Rocket Range in Norway. Its goal was to study the northern lights.The Communication Failure: While the scientists had notified several countries about the launch, the warning message never reached the Russian radar technicians on duty.The False Alarm: Russian radar detected the rocket and thought it looked like a U.S. Trident submarine-launched ballistic missile heading toward Moscow.The Close CallHigh Alert: The Russian military went into immediate crisis mode.Nuclear Briefcase Activated: Russian President Boris Yeltsin activated his nuclear briefcase (chemodanchik) for the first and only time in history. Military commanders prepared strategic nuclear forces for a potential counterattack.Stand Down: Russia had a strict 10-minute window to decide on a response. Within eight minutes, tracking showed the rocket was heading out to sea and away from Russian airspace. The system was stood down before any launch order was given.
There were other incdents.
I expect Europe is being cautious.
AI Overview
French authorities boarded and detained the oil tanker Boracay (and later similar shadow-fleet vessels like the Tagor) in late 2025 and 2026 amid suspicions of links to unidentified drone incursions near NATO countries like Denmark.
At the start some pundits said despite the crazy talk Putin was really rational and would not use nukes or escalate to WWIII.
At this point I think he is as crazy as Trump.
Putin is corned and dangerous IMO, he has no way out. No off ramp. It is do or die.
Same with Trump and Iran, Netanyahu and Gaza.
Steve, the amateur analyst ...