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If Solar And Wind Are So Cheap, Why Are They Making Electricity So Expensive?

Nuclear fission is here now. It's the best and safest way (by any measure you might choose) of making electricity without adding to the climate change problem. Intermittent and unreliable sources just don't cut it.

I'm hoping that fusion becomes a realistic option.

Fission has a problem - it skews the risk/severity matrix. It is actually very safe overall, but when it goes bad it goes really really bad. Insurance companies like a straight line correlation of risk/severity, and this is way off of that straight line, practically perpendicular.

Until then, yes, fission is the best route at this time. It just needs to be done very carefully.

One of the sad things about wind and solar is the rare earths used to make them, and the high environmental cost of procuring those rare earth minerals.
 
I thoght fusion was dead for now. Tokamak was torn down.
 
One would not use atmospheric-concentration CO2 directly. One would extract it from the air and then use it.
Easy to say; Not so easy to do (at least, not at reasonable cost).
SYNTHETIC FUELS FROM ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE - 16_4_BOSTON_04-72_0017.pdf -- proposed baking limestone to extract CO2. Not very good. But the rest of it is good, like the Fischer-Tropsch reaction to make synfuels.

The entrepreneurs turning carbon dioxide into fuels | Guardian Sustainable Business | The Guardian
In an industrial greenhouse about 30km from Zurich, plump aubergines and juicy cherry tomatoes are ripening to perfection. Growing Mediterranean crops in Switzerland would traditionally be energy intensive but these vegetables are very nearly carbon-neutral. The greenhouse uses waste energy from a nearby refuse plant, and carbon dioxide from the world’s first commercial direct air capture plant.
From Climeworks – Capturing CO2 from Air. From Our Technology | Climeworks – Capturing CO2 from Air, its method is to use a membrane that makes CO2 molecules stick to it. After the membrane gets loaded enough, it is then heated to 100 C to drive off its CO2.

Zero emission synfuel from seawater | Brave New Climate -- extracting CO2 from seawater.
Rather than going after the CO2 directly with chemical scrubbers, they use electrochemical processes to split seawater into an acid and base stream, and the CO2 bubbles off from the acidified water. The two streams are recombined and returned to the ocean.
That sounds like it could be a promising approach.
Estimated cost of resulting synfuel: $0.79/liter or $2.98/gallon. So it's borderline competitive.

Maybe in the US; But it could be highly competitive in Europe, if there were a tax break for using carbon neutral gasoline - bear in mind that a litre of unleaded in the UK costs about £1.25 after taxes, which is ~US$1.70, or around $6.40/gal
 
Nuclear fission is here now. It's the best and safest way (by any measure you might choose) of making electricity without adding to the climate change problem. Intermittent and unreliable sources just don't cut it.

I'm hoping that fusion becomes a realistic option.
Me too. But I am not holding my breath.
Fission has a problem - it skews the risk/severity matrix. It is actually very safe overall, but when it goes bad it goes really really bad.
Actually, it doesn't. When it goes as bad as at Chernobyl (which was really uniquely bad, and is unlikely to be repeated), less than 100 people die. When it only goes as bad as the other two 'worst case' accidents ever to have occurred, Three Mile Island and Fukushima, nobody gets hurt at all.

The majority of the costs are in the overreaction of officials, partly due to their outdated and badly flawed risk models. A big oil refinery fire is typically far more deadly than the Chernobyl 'disaster'. A single vehicle motor accident is more deadly than Fukushima.
Insurance companies like a straight line correlation of risk/severity, and this is way off of that straight line, practically perpendicular.

Until then, yes, fission is the best route at this time. It just needs to be done very carefully.
Which it is. To the point that nuclear power, per kWh, is two orders of magnitude less deadly than the next most dangerous way of making electricity (wind power), and so much safer than coal power that if it totally replaced coal, we could have a Chernobyl every week, and still lose fewer lives than at present.
One of the sad things about wind and solar is the rare earths used to make them, and the high environmental cost of procuring those rare earth minerals.

That's true. They are far from being the totally clean option that some would have us believe.
 
I thoght fusion was dead for now. Tokamak was torn down.

Tokamak is an (originally Soviet designed) toroidal magnetic confinement geometry, not a specific facility or experiment. The US TFTR was abandoned (I presume that's the reactor you are calling 'Tokamak'), But the ITER project in France is still going strong, and there are other smaller teams working on different designs.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokamak_Fusion_Test_Reactor

I was refering to Princeton.

Since 1980 fusion has always been 20 years away. Research goes on. The engineering does not appear practical.

Wgat we can do is capture the energy from the big fusion reactor in the sky right now.

There is an intrinsically safe nuclear design. It is fail safe and can never go into an uncontrolled runaway condition.
 
That's not what's been happening. What's been happening is that wind and solar producers have been massively subsidised and protected from the reality that they cost more. And as the article in the OP points out, the result has been massive rises in electricity prices, where these have been widely adopted.

Electricity is a service, not a commodity - what people are prepared to pay for is electricity when they want or need it. What the big wind and solar producing nations now have is a situation where people are made to buy electricity when the producers have it to sell. Whether they need it or not. And then they also have to pay for the standby generation - usually gas - that has to be there for the big gaps when wind and solar produce nothing.

Even if we magically replaced the gas backups with some kind of miraculously adequate storage solution, the cost of that solution still must be worn by the consumers, and it's just poor accounting not to include that cost when considering whether intermittent renewables are cost effective.

There are only three serious contenders for making electricity without carbon dioxide emissions. Wind, Solar, and Nuclear. France, Sweden and Ontario have gone with nuclear; Germany and Denmark with wind. Nobody has yet gone far into solar, but California is starting to do so.

We can compare the results fairly easily. And doing so, we find that the nuclear nations have far lower carbon dioxide emissions, and far lower electricity bills, than the wind nations; And the fledgling solar adopters are going the same way as the wind power people.

Of course, the very powerful lobby in favour of wind and solar make it easy to imagine that this is not the case, by presenting irrelevant facts (eg 'Denmark runs for three days on wind power alone' - sure, but three days is meaningless. Wake me up when they run for a year on more than 90% renewables).

But an honest review of the bottom line - actual carbon dioxide emissions over a year; actual power prices averaged over all consumers for a year - shows the real story. Compare France and Sweden with Denmark and Germany in the video below. Then try to tell me, with a straight face, how effective Germany or Denmark have been at reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

Solar power has a capacity factor of around 30% in the tropics, dropping off dramatically at high latitudes. Wind has a capacity factor of between 30 and 55%, most sites at the lower end of that range. Nuclear power plants have a capacity factor of over 90%, and unlike wind or solar, the timing of the unproductive periods is flexible and can be planned to coincide with low demand, or to avoid coinciding with downtime at other nearby facilities.

Intermittent renewables are very cheap and clean. Sometimes. But the majority of the time, they are actually coal or gas. Which costs nearly as much with wind and solar as it would without.

[YOUTUBE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6EOoC_kKI0[/YOUTUBE]

So continue to subsidize it. What does it matter how many America points we throw at it if it secures the future of our planet? All the money we throw at useless fruitless wars and we can't subsidize a national solar service? Hell you could build them across the entire nation including the pacific isles and just connecting it all up the same way we do with telecommunication cables. Why not?

How does continuing to subsidize the burning of gas secure the future of our planet??

look at the video above. The consistently dark green countries are the ones we should all emulate - they have successfully reduced emissions. The yellow and brown countries we should try to be less like.

The green countries all use nuclear and hydro power as their major generation sources. The yellow and brown ones are the ones that have subsidized wind and/or solar. (The black ones are the ones that have done nothing very much to reduce their reliance on coal - nobody should be like them).

How can you look at that map, and not conclude that nuclear plus hydro is the smart place to put your subsidies, rather than wind and solar? It's a no-brainer.

If we can maintain a global(near global?) network of solar power the way we do telecommunications then what's the problem? Supplement this with tide-farms and could we not meet our energy needs?
 
We should adjust pricing and usage to coincide with peak generation times. Personally, I think a lifestyle that is more in line with natural rhythms would be healthier as well as save energy.
 
How does continuing to subsidize the burning of gas secure the future of our planet??

look at the video above. The consistently dark green countries are the ones we should all emulate - they have successfully reduced emissions. The yellow and brown countries we should try to be less like.

The green countries all use nuclear and hydro power as their major generation sources. The yellow and brown ones are the ones that have subsidized wind and/or solar. (The black ones are the ones that have done nothing very much to reduce their reliance on coal - nobody should be like them).

How can you look at that map, and not conclude that nuclear plus hydro is the smart place to put your subsidies, rather than wind and solar? It's a no-brainer.

If we can maintain a global(near global?) network of solar power the way we do telecommunications then what's the problem? Supplement this with tide-farms and could we not meet our energy needs?

Sure; all you need is near perfect lossless long distance power transmission lines that don't cost much to make, install, or maintain.

Everything is easy when you don't need to even start thinking about how it might be done in practice. :rolleyes:
 
We should adjust pricing and usage to coincide with peak generation times. Personally, I think a lifestyle that is more in line with natural rhythms would be healthier as well as save energy.

Personally I think that civilisation has been a continuing struggle to overcome 'natural rhythms', and that that struggle is an overall good thing, that we shouldn't abandon so casually.

What you describe is called 'energy poverty', and people who live with it - whose power supply is intermittently available and who have to adjust their life's to fit in with its availability, absolutely fucking hate it.

Only someone who has never needed to worry that they might not have access to electricity whenever they want it could seriously entertain such a foolish and regressive notion.
 
We should adjust pricing and usage to coincide with peak generation times. Personally, I think a lifestyle that is more in line with natural rhythms would be healthier as well as save energy.

Large industrial users get price breaks based on time of day and usage.
 
A fact I just heard. All of the current nuclear waste will fit on a few football fields.

If we switch to large scale nuclear power hydro is not needed. What individual and community solar does is decentralize power generation. A small group of knowledgeable engineers could cripple our distribution system.It is not just solar voltaic. Commercial heliostats exist. They create steam that can run turbines.

A calculation I did some time ago:

The space required to store the waste from coal power for one year is greater than the space required to store the high level waste from nuclear power with the same total output forever. (The coal waste remains toxic forever, with proper reprocessing the nuke waste in time becomes harmless.)
 
A fact I just heard. All of the current nuclear waste will fit on a few football fields.

If we switch to large scale nuclear power hydro is not needed. What individual and community solar does is decentralize power generation. A small group of knowledgeable engineers could cripple our distribution system.It is not just solar voltaic. Commercial heliostats exist. They create steam that can run turbines.

A calculation I did some time ago:

The space required to store the waste from coal power for one year is greater than the space required to store the high level waste from nuclear power with the same total output forever. (The coal waste remains toxic forever, with proper reprocessing the nuke waste in time becomes harmless.)

With proper recycling through GenIV reactors, the high level 'waste' (not really, waste, it's just incompletely used fuel) can be used to produce about five times the energy it has produced already; And after that process, the remaining radioactive materials are all short-lived stuff that is less active than the ore it originally came from in less than a century. Then you can put it back in the hole it came out of, and nobody is at the slightest additional risk due to our having wrung some clean energy out of it.
 
GenIV reactors don't exist yet. They are merely research proposals.

FYI: Generation IV reactor -
The majority of the 6 designs are generally not expected to be available for commercial construction until 2020–30.

Does it make sense to start the process of building lots of the old style reactors when these are so close to being available? Will they burn the spent fuel from the older reactors?
 
GenIV reactors don't exist yet. They are merely research proposals.

FYI: Generation IV reactor -
The majority of the 6 designs are generally not expected to be available for commercial construction until 2020–30.

Does it make sense to start the process of building lots of the old style reactors when these are so close to being available?
No, but they don't build many anyway. And 10 years is a long time to plan building them. A lot could happen, cheap batteries for example.
Will they burn the spent fuel from the older reactors?
Some promise that, some don't
 
bilby said:
Quote Originally Posted by Sarpedon View Post
We should adjust pricing and usage to coincide with peak generation times. Personally, I think a lifestyle that is more in line with natural rhythms would be healthier as well as save energy.
Personally I think that civilisation has been a continuing struggle to overcome 'natural rhythms', and that that struggle is an overall good thing, that we shouldn't abandon so casually.

What you describe is called 'energy poverty', and people who live with it - whose power supply is intermittently available and who have to adjust their life's to fit in with its availability, absolutely fucking hate it.

Only someone who has never needed to worry that they might not have access to electricity whenever they want it could seriously entertain such a foolish and regressive notion.

Personally, I think civilization is the march of the empowered classes finding new ways to exploit ordinary people. Clocks: Now we can measure and assert ownership over people's time! Electric light: Now we can make people work at night! Telephones: Now we can summon people to work whenever we want! etc. There are a myriad studies to show that being forced to adopt unnatural behavior patterns adds stress, reduces life satisfaction, and causes health problems.

I am not suggesting the same thing as you are asserting: the electricity only works when the power station decides to send it to your zone, so you have to work like a maniac to make use of it, whatever time of day that is. Rather, especially with things like solar power and natural light, we will go back to something more resembling a pre-industrial life, where people are most active during the day, and asleep or engaging in less power related activities at night.
 
A fact I just heard. All of the current nuclear waste will fit on a few football fields.

If we switch to large scale nuclear power hydro is not needed. What individual and community solar does is decentralize power generation. A small group of knowledgeable engineers could cripple our distribution system.It is not just solar voltaic. Commercial heliostats exist. They create steam that can run turbines.

A calculation I did some time ago:

The space required to store the waste from coal power for one year is greater than the space required to store the high level waste from nuclear power with the same total output forever. (The coal waste remains toxic forever, with proper reprocessing the nuke waste in time becomes harmless.)

With proper recycling through GenIV reactors, the high level 'waste' (not really, waste, it's just incompletely used fuel) can be used to produce about five times the energy it has produced already; And after that process, the remaining radioactive materials are all short-lived stuff that is less active than the ore it originally came from in less than a century. Then you can put it back in the hole it came out of, and nobody is at the slightest additional risk due to our having wrung some clean energy out of it.

Yeah, that's what I was talking about--after you've used everything you can, the remainder decays to ambient in 10k years. After that time is over it's no more harmful than any other dirt.
 
GenIV reactors don't exist yet. They are merely research proposals.

FYI: Generation IV reactor -
The majority of the 6 designs are generally not expected to be available for commercial construction until 2020–30.

Does it make sense to start the process of building lots of the old style reactors when these are so close to being available? Will they burn the spent fuel from the older reactors?

Yes, it does make sense; And yes, they can burn the spent fuel from earlier designs.

And while the majority of designs might not be available until 2020-2030, there are some that have been built and are in the final stages of testing - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prototype_Fast_Breeder_Reactor is due to generate 500MW of electricity starting this year.

The reason it makes sense to build lots of reactors of Gen II or IV design is that they are so VASTLY better for everyone than the coal power plants they replace.

About 1.8 million lives have already been saved by nuclear power; and another 7 million could be saved in the next forty years. (source) That's not something we should delay.

If you don't want to read the source paper itself, there's a good summary in the Scientific American article at: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/the-curious-wavefunction/nuclear-power-may-have-saved-1-8-million-lives-otherwise-lost-to-fossil-fuels-may-save-up-to-7-million-more/.

The bottom line is that, even assuming pessimistic scenarios, the number of deaths caused by nuclear power is a minuscule fraction of those lives which were saved by nuclear power replacing fossil fuels.
 
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