Iowa Caucuses (or Cauci?)

[Jolly_Penguin]

I was indeed half-joking about him not wanting to win, but wow, he really seems off for some reason. Also, I really think if he cannot bounce by SC, he has no chance of winning.

I see what you mean. He keeps saying things that make it seem like he has no interest in winning the election. I think he feels obligated, like he's the last of the insider Dem Clintoncrats and the last line in holding power away from Bernie or maybe Buttigieg or others who may not be sworn to their insider group. For now thats just a wild conspiracy theory, but who knows. Could be.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I was indeed half-joking about him not wanting to win, but wow, he really seems off for some reason. Also, I really think if he cannot bounce by SC, he has no chance of winning.

I see what you mean. He keeps saying things that make it seem like he has no interest in winning the election. I think he feels obligated, like he's the last of the insider Dem Clintoncrats and the last line in holding power away from Bernie or maybe Buttigieg or others who may not be sworn to their insider group. For now thats just a wild conspiracy theory, but who knows. Could be.

His son, Beau Biden, was likely going to be President of the US. He was definitely on that track. Then brain cancer came and he passed away, and I think that definitely is part of Biden's motivation.

 

[southernhybrid]

One of my closest black friends was totally devastated this morning regarding the Iowa caucus results. She was a very strong Biden supporter and now she has no idea who to support in the primaries, if Biden is totally out of the picture by the time we vote here in late March. I know she will at least vote for whoever the candidate ends up being, but I'm not sure that most black voters will. My friends feels strongly that Buttigieg isn't ready to be president and Sanders is out of his mind. She has been telling me for months that she thinks Trump is heading for a second term. I told her today that I think she's right.

 

[PyramidHead]

So are we just supposed to stop wondering about it now, like it's been over 36 hours and nobody seems to be in a hurry to provide an update on the remaining 30% of the first primary election of 2020. Starting to think Iowa is the Epstein suicide of this election and everyone is going to start pretending there's nothing weird going on

 

[Tom Sawyer]

So are we just supposed to stop wondering about it now, like it's been over 36 hours and nobody seems to be in a hurry to provide an update on the remaining 30% of the first primary election of 2020. Starting to think Iowa is the Epstein suicide of this election and everyone is going to start pretending there's nothing weird going on

Didn't one of the GOP ones take a couple of weeks to get all the results?

That being said, though, it involves calling people and having them read you a number from a piece of paper. Just because they use a stupid and outmoded system of voting doesn't mean they actually need to still ride their donkey over to the capitol building to let them know the winner.

I think it's past time to just have Iowa stop doing this thing. It's gotten silly.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

So are we just supposed to stop wondering about it now, like it's been over 36 hours and nobody seems to be in a hurry to provide an update on the remaining 30% of the first primary election of 2020. Starting to think Iowa is the Epstein suicide of this election and everyone is going to start pretending there's nothing weird going on

I think I heard on Bloomberg news that we're supposed to get another 5% of results at 4pm which will definitively prove that Buttiegieg won in the caucuses that they added. So everyone's just probably being told to wait around so that we know what we're supposed to think.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So are we just supposed to stop wondering about it now, like it's been over 36 hours and nobody seems to be in a hurry to provide an update on the remaining 30% of the first primary election of 2020. Starting to think Iowa is the Epstein suicide of this election and everyone is going to start pretending there's nothing weird going on

Didn't one of the GOP ones take a couple of weeks to get all the results?

As in they awarded it to the wrong guy (Romney) and changed the winner two weeks later (Santorum)? Naw, never happened.

 

[ZiprHead]

One of my closest black friends was totally devastated this morning regarding the Iowa caucus results. She was a very strong Biden supporter and now she has no idea who to support in the primaries, if Biden is totally out of the picture by the time we vote here in late March. I know she will at least vote for whoever the candidate ends up being, but I'm not sure that most black voters will. My friends feels strongly that Buttigieg isn't ready to be president and Sanders is out of his mind. She has been telling me for months that she thinks Trump is heading for a second term. I told her today that I think she's right.

Way too early to be counting any of the major players out.

 

[lpetrich]

I keep seeing ads on TV for someone called Tom Steyer, where does he come into it, if at all ?

Tom Steyer is a billionaire environmentalist, and his run for President seems like a vanity run for me.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

One of my closest black friends was totally devastated this morning regarding the Iowa caucus results. She was a very strong Biden supporter and now she has no idea who to support in the primaries, if Biden is totally out of the picture by the time we vote here in late March. I know she will at least vote for whoever the candidate ends up being, but I'm not sure that most black voters will. My friends feels strongly that Buttigieg isn't ready to be president and Sanders is out of his mind. She has been telling me for months that she thinks Trump is heading for a second term. I told her today that I think she's right.

Way too early to be counting any of the major players out.

Ya, why would Biden be out of the picture? That's one of the main problems with putting Iowa and it's weird little circus parade first. When it's the only thing going on, it makes it seem like it matters and that creates a false impression.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Jebus! Now Biden Campaign questioning Iowa's results, in a not so passive aggressive way.

In an interview on CNN Wednesday, senior adviser Symone Sanders pointed to problems with an app used to tabulate precinct results.

Pressed by CNN anchor Brianna Keilar over whether this meant she was contesting the reported results, Sanders demurred, saying she has not “analyzed the back ends of the data.”

When Keilar noted that this was the kind of remark that Democrats have criticized Trump for making, Sanders said she was not disputing the results, just raising “legitimate questions.”

“I guess we’ll have to take the Iowa Democratic Party at their word,” she said.

Win South Carolina and Nevada and shut up.

 

[Derec]

Ya, why would Biden be out of the picture?

He is not out of the picture, but he is on the ropes. If he disappoints in NH, which is a strong possibility, he is done.

That's one of the main problems with putting Iowa and it's weird little circus parade first. When it's the only thing going on, it makes it seem like it matters and that creates a false impression.

The point of the candidates competing in Iowa/NH first is that it gives less funded, less well known candidates a fighting chance. In bigger states name recognition and DNC support would make the contests difficult for "smaller" candidates. Iowa made Obama. Otherwise it would have almost certainly been Hillary in 2008. In 2020 it would have been a Biden coronation if Super Tuesday states went first. This setup allows candidates like Obama and Mayor Pete they would otherwise have been denied next to party machine backed candidates.

 

[Derec]

One of my closest black friends was totally devastated this morning regarding the Iowa caucus results. She was a very strong Biden supporter and now she has no idea who to support in the primaries, if Biden is totally out of the picture by the time we vote here in late March. I know she will at least vote for whoever the candidate ends up being, but I'm not sure that most black voters will. My friends feels strongly that Buttigieg isn't ready to be president and Sanders is out of his mind. She has been telling me for months that she thinks Trump is heading for a second term. I told her today that I think she's right.

Biden is not done - yet. He can still recover if he does well in NH. But it is getting hairy for him - worse than when he confronted Corn Pop at the pool.

A lot can still happen by the time Georgia finally gets to vote. Super Tuesday for one. The fight might be over by March 24th. Or it could be just getting interesting if Super Tuesday is inconclusive.

But how does your friend feel about Bloomberg? He may inherit Biden's lane should he fail to remain viable for Super Tuesday.

 

[Derec]

His son, Beau Biden, was likely going to be President of the US. He was definitely on that track. Then brain cancer came and he passed away, and I think that definitely is part of Biden's motivation.

He should have ran in 2016 though. He could have been running for his reelection and not worry about any primaries right about now.

 

[Derec]

I see what you mean. He keeps saying things that make it seem like he has no interest in winning the election.

He really said that? When? And the "I might die" thing? That's worse that the record player fiasco.

 

[Derec]

Yeah, the big question now is which candidate will Andrew "1%" Yang put his 1% behind, and who'll notice.

You obviously don't understand the Iowa process. Yang had ~5% support going in, but because of the 15% threshold in each precinct and realignment he got only 1% of SDEs.
So while he is very unlikely to win the nomination, but he is no 1% candidate!

 

[Derec]

Seems like we should be asking who got the most votes in Iowa,

First votes or final (post realignment)?

By the way, this woman is something else.


Her homophobia aside, what rock has she been living under?

 

[Derec]

Is there anything you won't blame on patriarchy and sexism?

That's a good question. Toni reminds me of Uncle Leo.
They don't just overcook a hamburger, Jolly!

And I strongly disagree that she's a better speaker than Pete. She's wooden, rehearsed, bereft of any interesting or unique policy ideas, a continuous naysayer, and propped up by NBC for some inexplicable reason. Neither of them are good speakers, but Pete is a better speaker than she is. So is Warren. So were Harris and Tulsi. So are Bernie and Yang. Amy is down near the bottom when it comes to her speaking so far in the debates. Maybe she's ahead of Steyer. There's sadly no Obama level speaker in this race.

I think Pete is a good speaker.
Harris definitely jumped the gun on quitting. She should have waited out Iowa/NH. She had a lot of donor support from early days, how did she run out of money so soon? Did she overspend?
Yang was like deer in headlights in early debates, and that didn't help him at all. He has gotten MUCH better, but it shows that he is not a politician.
I agree with you on Warren. She attaches herself to ideas she thinks are popular on the left. She grabbed Bernie's M4A for economic left credentials, she embraced reparations for identity politics, etc.

 

[Derec]

I agree. And I think Biden is definitely imploding.It is only a matter of time. Buttigieg MAY emerge as the centrist candidate, but Klobuchar will probably try hard to stick around just in case, as will Bloomberg, because Pete is said to have little path in forward in states that aren't as white as Iowa.

Klobuchar is done. Iowa is next door to Minnesota after all, and she only managed 5th. Who will donate to her now?
Buttigieg is not popular with black people. I wonder how much of that is homophobia, which is still sadly more common in the black community. They may warm up to him though, if their first choice is no longer an option.

I think Warren is also in a downward spiral, but unlike Biden, she's still got a slim chance of bouncing back.

I think the opposite. Both are on the ropes, but Warren is worse off. Biden still has a national lead and leads in early state of South Carolina. Warren leads nowhere, and her lane-mate Bernie had a good Iowa caucus and will probably win NH.

[Klobuchar] is the remaining centrist in case Buttigieg falters and Bloomberg fails to catch on. She may get a big surge when Biden drops out. Or Pete may.

We will see. Pete will enjoy a post-Iowa bounce. Biden is not out yet, as the SC firewall still stands, for now. Bloomberg will not really be tested until Nevada at the earliest, but really Super Tuesday is his thing. I do not see Klobuchar surviving long enough to capitalize on Biden and/or Bloomberg failing.

Unclear what becomes of Steyer. He has the money to keep pushing forward but he's made little headway. Yang has a near zero chance of winning but I think (and hope) that he too will stick around for a good while yet, just to keep pushing his message and that it eventually gets absorbed and adopted by the winning candidate.

Eventually he will be off the debate stage. The Nevada debate criteria are 10% poll support or at least one delegate. I doubt he will make it.

 

[Derec]

I don't get how the app conspiracy theory is supposed to work since the app failed anyway. And when all the results are in, any precinct can check to see if it's what they reported.

My non-conspiracy theory, as I think it plausible, is that DNC wanted a clusterfuck to discredit the Iowa Caucuses. They desperately want to get rid of caucuses, as they often pick non-DNC preferred candidates like Obama. They also want a state with more politically correct demographics to go first.

The Shoestring App Developer Behind the Iowa Caucus Debacle

Surprise, surprise, Shadow, the app company that caused this nightmare was founded a former Hillary staffer. Revenge for not voting for heiress apparent in 2008, or just doing DNC's bidding?