Iowa Caucuses (or Cauci?)

[PyramidHead]

Winning delegates is what counts, not votes, in winning the caucus.

Iowa has a ridiculously small number of delegates and isn't an important state in the general election. The reason it's important in primaries is because it's first, and that establishes momentum for the next few states before Super Tuesday. In an eight-person race, getting 6k more votes than the second place candidate is more important for momentum (and more representative of the population) than getting 12 delegates instead of 11 because of some arcane mechanism nobody even pretends to understand.

Apart from which, the remaining caucuses in that 3% are all satellite caucuses, where non-English speakers, immigrants, night shift workers, students, and many POC cast their votes overwhelmingly for Sanders. This just in from Pete's campaign:

NEWS: Buttigieg campaign had a call w/ IDP this morning + raised concerns about how the party was allocating SDEs from satellite caucuses. Campaign believes the party has not followed rules set out by the delegate selection plan, and Bernie got more SDEs.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Winning delegates is what counts, not votes, in winning the caucus.

After 2016, I thought the Democrats were all about the popular vote...

 

[blastula]

It's what should count in elections like this, but as the rules are set out in this case, it doesn't. Not that complicated.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

It's what should count in elections like this, but as the rules are set out in this case, it doesn't. Not that complicated.

Yes, the rules are the rules. I just think that maybe possibly it is a little bit ironic that the party that says "it is all about the popular vote" aren't following through.

 

[Derec]

Apart from which, the remaining caucuses in that 3% are all satellite caucuses

I guess the satellite caucuses have experienced the  Kessler syndrome.

Democratic Chair Calls for Recanvass of Iowa Caucus Results

On Thursday morning, the Pete Buttigieg campaign called the Iowa Democratic Party to raise concerns about how the party was allocating state delegate equivalents from satellite caucuses, according to a person familiar with the call.
The campaign believes the party has not been abiding by the rules set out by the delegate selection plan, which has resulted in Bernie Sanders earning more delegates. The Buttigieg campaign declined to comment.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

After reading what Buttigieg says...I went back to the numbers I posted before:

97% reporting.

First Alignment:
Bernie Sanders -- 2,126 -- 31%
Pete Buttigieg -- 1,593 -- 23%

Final Alignment:
Bernie Sanders -- 44,753 -- 27%
Pete Buttigieg -- 42,235 -- 25%

Computed Delegate Count:
Pete Buttigieg -- 550 -- 26.22%
Bernie Sanders -- 547 -- 26.07%

I believe Buttigieg is correct that Sanders ought to have more delegates. The math seems illogical otherwise.

Also, I think it's honorable of Buttigieg to say.

 

[Politesse]

It's what should count in elections like this, but as the rules are set out in this case, it doesn't. Not that complicated.

Yes, the rules are the rules. I just think that maybe possibly it is a little bit ironic that the party that says "it is all about the popular vote" aren't following through.

No one voted on whether the President should break the law, he did that all on his own.

 

[TV and credit cards]

He got 6000 more votes than any other candidate and there are still unreported precincts.

Sure, off the first alignment. But in Iowa, broad appeal is a consideration in the second alignment and this is where Buttigieg took over. And broad appeal will have more meaning going forward as struggling candidates are disregarded or drop out. Already Buttigieg and Sanders are separating themselves from the pack in New Hampshire. Beyond that, voter turnout was down in Iowa from 2016 and 2008 so if Bernie is going to rally the American people, I suggest he get to it. Also, someone needs to take a look at those four satellites. The numbers are way out of wack.

******

Buttigieg just needs to be heard. People who pay little attention to politics still do not know him. People who listen, like what they hear. He took the right tack in appealing for unity. Should he win the nomination, I believe it will win back those moderates who voted for Trump in 2016. People will not be worrying about the stock market tanking and their retirement in kind switching from Trump to Buttigieg. I think young people were dissatisfied and disregarded Buttigieg early on because he is of a younger generation and is not the firebrand they would expect.
Listen to him. I posted his speech on foreign policy before. I'll do so again. The only valid complaint about him is his lack of experience. I do not put as much stock in experience for being POTUS as I do knowledge and intellect. I doubt there is a Dem candidate who would want to go one on one with Pete in a real debate in spite of their years of experience.

 

[blastula]

It's what should count in elections like this, but as the rules are set out in this case, it doesn't. Not that complicated.

Yes, the rules are the rules. I just think that maybe possibly it is a little bit ironic that the party that says "it is all about the popular vote" aren't following through.

You mean that they haven't stopped using caucuses? That's up to the state parties, but really these are only for picking a nominee, not the final office holder. There's no requirement that parties have any general public votes at all, that's only a recent.practice. It's supposed to help pick a viable candidate, it's not really a democratic representation issue like it is for the real elections.

 

[Jarhyn]

He got 6000 more votes than any other candidate and there are still unreported precincts.

Sure, off the first alignment. But in Iowa, broad appeal is a consideration in the second alignment and this is where Buttigieg took over. And broad appeal will have more meaning going forward as struggling candidates are disregarded or drop out. Already Buttigieg and Sanders are separating themselves from the pack in New Hampshire. Beyond that, voter turnout was down in Iowa from 2016 and 2008 so if Bernie is going to rally the American people, I suggest he get to it. Also, someone needs to take a look at those four satellites. The numbers are way out of wack.

******

Buttigieg just needs to be heard. People who pay little attention to politics still do not know him. People who listen, like what they hear. He took the right tack in appealing for unity. Should he win the nomination, I believe it will win back those moderates who voted for Trump in 2016. People will not be worrying about the stock market tanking and their retirement in kind switching from Trump to Buttigieg. I think young people were dissatisfied and disregarded Buttigieg early on because he is of a younger generation and is not the firebrand they would expect.
Listen to him. I posted his speech on foreign policy before. I'll do so again. The only valid complaint about him is his lack of experience. I do not put as much stock in experience for being POTUS as I do knowledge and intellect. I doubt there is a Dem candidate who would want to go one on one with Pete in a real debate in spite of their years of experience.

Buttigieg, the guy who has changed pretty much every one of his positions in the last year or so based on focus groups and "what sells"?

People who listen "like what they hear" because he has no principles and will say whatever it takes to get elected.

No thanks!

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

He got 6000 more votes than any other candidate and there are still unreported precincts.

Sure, off the first alignment. But in Iowa, broad appeal is a consideration in the second alignment and this is where Buttigieg took over. And broad appeal will have more meaning going forward as struggling candidates are disregarded or drop out. Already Buttigieg and Sanders are separating themselves from the pack in New Hampshire. Beyond that, voter turnout was down in Iowa from 2016 and 2008 so if Bernie is going to rally the American people, I suggest he get to it. Also, someone needs to take a look at those four satellites. The numbers are way out of wack.

******

Buttigieg just needs to be heard. People who pay little attention to politics still do not know him. People who listen, like what they hear. He took the right tack in appealing for unity. Should he win the nomination, I believe it will win back those moderates who voted for Trump in 2016. People will not be worrying about the stock market tanking and their retirement in kind switching from Trump to Buttigieg. I think young people were dissatisfied and disregarded Buttigieg early on because he is of a younger generation and is not the firebrand they would expect.
Listen to him. I posted his speech on foreign policy before. I'll do so again. The only valid complaint about him is his lack of experience. I do not put as much stock in experience for being POTUS as I do knowledge and intellect. I doubt there is a Dem candidate who would want to go one on one with Pete in a real debate in spite of their years of experience.

Buttigieg did not take over in the second alignment. He lost by 2.5k votes. Please see the numbers in the previous post.

 

[lpetrich]

AOC calls Iowa caucuses 'hot mess' amid vote-counting debacle | Fox News

“It shouldn’t be surprising or controversial to say that it’s a mess,” Ocasio-Cortez said at the Capitol Thursday. “The caucuses have been a hot mess.”

...
She added her name to a growing chorus of Democrats who suggested 2020 should be the last time Iowa holds the first-in-the-nation contest.

“I think there are valid questions to raise as to -- should Iowa go first,” the influential New York Democrat said.

Rep. Debbie Dingell of Michigan:

Dingell, who famously led an effort in 2008 with former Sen. Carl Levin to have Michigan leapfrog other primary states, said she hadn’t intended to revisit that fight, but after the mess in Iowa she’s committed to building a nationwide campaign to dethrone Iowa and New Hampshire and build a primary process that's fairer.

“No one state should have a lock on going first,” Dingell said. “We need to figure out a system so that everybody has that opportunity.”

Referring to Michigan Dems making play to challenge Iowa's political status after caucus mess | Fox News

That will be interesting to see.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

I was suggesting this as a joke ... you can no longer out-parody reality.

Texas Congresswoman suggests Russia responsible for Iowa caucus voting issues

 

[Trausti]

I was suggesting this as a joke ... you can no longer out-parody reality.

Texas Congresswoman suggests Russia responsible for Iowa caucus voting issues

It’s like she posts on this forum.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Meanwhile, if you had Buttigieg and Sanders as the top two contenders come Super Tuesday, you probably will make lots of money. Sanders is looking comfortable in New Hampshire, but Buttigieg is making up a lot of ground. He is the one guy who Stacey Abrams doesn't compliment well, as both are lacking in experience Federally (or State wise). Cory Booker?

Meanwhile Sanders, Abrams fits well. NE and SE.

He got 6000 more votes than any other candidate and there are still unreported precincts.

Sure, off the first alignment. But in Iowa, broad appeal is a consideration in the second alignment and this is where Buttigieg took over. And broad appeal will have more meaning going forward as struggling candidates are disregarded or drop out. Already Buttigieg and Sanders are separating themselves from the pack in New Hampshire. Beyond that, voter turnout was down in Iowa from 2016 and 2008 so if Bernie is going to rally the American people, I suggest he get to it. Also, someone needs to take a look at those four satellites. The numbers are way out of wack.

******

Buttigieg just needs to be heard. People who pay little attention to politics still do not know him. People who listen, like what they hear. He took the right tack in appealing for unity. Should he win the nomination, I believe it will win back those moderates who voted for Trump in 2016. People will not be worrying about the stock market tanking and their retirement in kind switching from Trump to Buttigieg. I think young people were dissatisfied and disregarded Buttigieg early on because he is of a younger generation and is not the firebrand they would expect.
Listen to him. I posted his speech on foreign policy before. I'll do so again. The only valid complaint about him is his lack of experience. I do not put as much stock in experience for being POTUS as I do knowledge and intellect. I doubt there is a Dem candidate who would want to go one on one with Pete in a real debate in spite of their years of experience.

Buttigieg, the guy who has changed pretty much every one of his positions in the last year or so based on focus groups and "what sells"?

People who listen "like what they hear" because he has no principles and will say whatever it takes to get elected.

No thanks!

It did technically work very well for Bill Clinton.

 

[Jarhyn]

I was suggesting this as a joke ... you can no longer out-parody reality.

Texas Congresswoman suggests Russia responsible for Iowa caucus voting issues

Given the fact that a contingent of Trump supporters embargoed the phone lines the Dem caucus was coordinating on, and much of the Trump supporter activities are arranged by Russian interests and troll farms, it is entirely possible that some issues were the result of Russian interference.

That said, I'm mostly leaning on "a little bit of everything", from DNC ineptitude, both normal (user error) AND planned (the plausibly deniable issues of using a buggy, hastily thrown together app so to slow reporting and control narratives), along with some Russian interference (making the problems worse through swamping phone lines).

Russia WANTS high visibility of their actions interfering with the election. That is certain; they can't instigate divisiveness and doubt on the basis of "INTERFERENCE!!!" otherwise.

The attacks will be blatant and nonstop from now till November.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

I was suggesting this as a joke ... you can no longer out-parody reality.

Texas Congresswoman suggests Russia responsible for Iowa caucus voting issues

Given the fact that a contingent of Trump supporters embargoed the phone lines the Dem caucus was coordinating on, and much of the Trump supporter activities are arranged by Russian interests and troll farms, it is entirely possible that some issues were the result of Russian interference.

So, like that congressperson, you are a conspiracy theorist.

 

[Jarhyn]

I was suggesting this as a joke ... you can no longer out-parody reality.

Texas Congresswoman suggests Russia responsible for Iowa caucus voting issues

Given the fact that a contingent of Trump supporters embargoed the phone lines the Dem caucus was coordinating on, and much of the Trump supporter activities are arranged by Russian interests and troll farms, it is entirely possible that some issues were the result of Russian interference.

So, like that congressperson, you are a conspiracy theorist.

Did you even read the Mueller report? Someone's head would have to be shoved pretty far up their ass to not think that Russia would do exactly what we've caught them doing in the past, especially after it worked.

So like an abusive domestic partner, are you gaslighting?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

That said, I'm mostly leaning on "a little bit of everything", from DNC ineptitude, both normal (user error) AND planned (the plausibly deniable issues of using a buggy, hastily thrown together app so to slow reporting and control narratives), along with some Russian interference (making the problems worse through swamping phone lines).

When I read and hear that the managers at each of the sites were having problems downloading the software on the day of the Caucus, it really isn't too hard to suggest that one major issue was preparation. It sounds like training was available, but not enough took it.

The second issue, is possibly right-wing trolls stuffing up the phone lines. We really don't know this happened or to the magnitude it happened (if it did indeed). Forget about aligning Russia with the events. America is quite capable of botching a small election on its own.

Russia WANTS high visibility of their actions interfering with the election.

Actually, all they want is uncertainty in the system. And even the President of the US has done his part to increase that, with all the shit he's said about illegal voting.

 

[Jarhyn]

That said, I'm mostly leaning on "a little bit of everything", from DNC ineptitude, both normal (user error) AND planned (the plausibly deniable issues of using a buggy, hastily thrown together app so to slow reporting and control narratives), along with some Russian interference (making the problems worse through swamping phone lines).

When I read and hear that the managers at each of the sites were having problems downloading the software on the day of the Caucus, it really isn't too hard to suggest that one major issue was preparation. It sounds like training was available, but not enough took it.

The second issue, is possibly right-wing trolls stuffing up the phone lines. We really don't know this happened or to the magnitude it happened (if it did indeed). Forget about aligning Russia with the events. America is quite capable of botching a small election on its own.

Russia WANTS high visibility of their actions interfering with the election.

Actually, all they want is uncertainty in the system. And even the President of the US has done his part to increase that, with all the shit he's said about illegal voting.

The fastest way to uncertainty in the results is certainty of attempted interference.

There is no question whether there were attempts at interference by oppositional forces.

The party claims this did not impact the final results, and I believe them; but the coordinated actions that make it even more of a shit show fall directly in line with established tactics.

We need to address foreign interference with our elections.