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Iowa Caucuses (or Cauci?)

What I find a bit surprising is that Pete outperformed Amy. Minnesota and Iowa are neighbors with many/most of the same cultural background and very similar issues. I know that Amy campaigned very heavily in Iowa. Plus, she has a much stronger record and frankly, she's a much better speaker than Pete.

 
Harry Bosch said:
Well, the Iowa voters have spoken. Congratulations to Buttigieg. Huge win for him. Sanders was close. The interesting thing to me is that three moderates (Buttigieg, Biden, and Klobuchar) won 54.8% of the vote, while the Sanders/Warren got 43.6%. This bodes very well for the moderates to be making a statement.
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This is exactly why they prematurely released only 61% of the vote, and ignored large pro-Bernie segments of Iowa.

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It's not about the delegates, and not about the opinions of Iowans; neither are important to the primary nor the general. The early states in this phase of the electoral process are about optics, and the fact that you are basically convinced that Pete took Iowa when he didn't is precisely the outcome this was engineered to deliver.

It's Wednesday and we still don't have the results of the final count, despite all of the ballots being available by 2:30PM yesterday.

We’ve had the state party at our @polkdems HQ since 10:30 this morning. All of the results from all 177 of our precincts have been provided to them as of 2:30.

Thank you to all 177 of our precinct chairs for getting every physical copy turned in in record time.
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For the results to still not be completely, transparently available, and in the shadow of Trump's address to the nation and Pelosi's charming theatrics on camera, seems an awful lot like printing something false one day and putting the correction on page 9 the next day. It also appears to have worked on its intended audience.
 
Derec said:
Bad news for Biden for sure, as he was having trouble with donors anyway, and Bloomberg has seriously started crowding his lane.
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I agree. And I think Biden is definitely imploding.It is only a matter of time. Buttigieg MAY emerge as the centrist candidate, but Klobuchar will probably try hard to stick around just in case, as will Bloomberg, because Pete is said to have little path in forward in states that aren't as white as Iowa.

Bad news for Warren too, and she will sure hope Buttigieg will hold on to his lead. But even as things stand, Bernie can claim supremacy in the progressive lane, and some momentum for New Hampshire.
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I think Warren is also in a downward spiral, but unlike Biden, she's still got a slim chance of bouncing back.

(of Klobuchar) She is not just in trouble, she is most likely done. There are a maximum of 4 tickets out of Iowa (plus Bloomberg, who is not contesting Iowa), but Amy really needs a 3rd or better finish since she is the favorite daughter adjacent. If she can't have a competitive performance here, she can't pull it off in the remaining early states either. She needs to do really well in the outstanding 38% of precincts to crawl her way past Joe and Liz.
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She's the remaining centrist in case Buttigieg falters and Bloomberg fails to catch on. She may get a big surge when Biden drops out. Or Pete may.

Unclear what becomes of Steyer. He has the money to keep pushing forward but he's made little headway. Yang has a near zero chance of winning but I think (and hope) that he too will stick around for a good while yet, just to keep pushing his message and that it eventually gets absorbed and adopted by the winning candidate.
 
blastula said:
I don't get how the app conspiracy theory is supposed to work since the app failed anyway. And when all the results are in, any precinct can check to see if it's what they reported.
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The conspiracy theory is that its more about stealing the thunder of the winner. Winning Iowa is supposed to be a big news event and a resulting bump for future voting in other states. This fizzle won't do that.

Another pretty non-compatible conspiracy theory since Pete appears to have won, is that Pete somehow rigged the votes, because some reporters have reported that Pete paid a bunch of money to help fund the app that did this.
 
Toni said:
What I find a bit surprising is that Pete outperformed Amy. Minnesota and Iowa are neighbors with many/most of the same cultural background and very similar issues. I know that Amy campaigned very heavily in Iowa. Plus, she has a much stronger record and frankly, she's a much better speaker than Pete.

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Is there anything you won't blame on patriarchy and sexism?

And I strongly disagree that she's a better speaker than Pete. She's wooden, rehearsed, bereft of any interesting or unique policy ideas, a continuous naysayer, and propped up by NBC for some inexplicable reason. Neither of them are good speakers, but Pete is a better speaker than she is. So is Warren. So were Harris and Tulsi. So are Bernie and Yang. Amy is down near the bottom when it comes to her speaking so far in the debates. Maybe she's ahead of Steyer. There's sadly no Obama level speaker in this race.
 
Seems like we should be asking who got the most votes in Iowa, if we're being consistent with highlighting that metric in 2016 regarding Trump versus Clinton. With 71% reporting:

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Trausti said:
My goodness. This is all a gift to Trump.
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It really is. And he capitalized on it quickly as did other Republicans: "They can't even do this and they want to run our health care?" a few have been quoted (or paraphrased) saying.

"
 
It should be interesting to see how the herd thins from here. Will Warren drop out before one or both of the non-leading centrists? It could make a big difference if the votes are split.
 
Jolly_Penguin said:
And I strongly disagree that she's a better speaker than Pete.
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I strongly disagree that any of these candidates is a better speaker than Pete. He is really the only one who can open his mouth and say something meaningful, stated clearly in complete grammatically correct sentences in fifteen seconds or less. At least he's the only one who actually does that.
 
Jolly_Penguin said:
It should be interesting to see how the herd thins from here. Will Warren drop out before one or both of the non-leading centrists? It could make a big difference if the votes are split.
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Yeah, the big question now is which candidate will Andrew "1%" Yang put his 1% behind, and who'll notice.

Tulsi Gabbard will also need to start thinking about career options. Granted, she could hitch her broken down van of a campaign to Sanders' campaign... but will anyone notice? Will Jason Harvestdancer start chanting Bernie... when his... whatever you want to call it... goes for Sanders? Or will the creepy Libertarian support for Gabbard evaporate like the GOP's concerns over deficits.
 
Just opinion... I don't think Biden actually wants to win. I mean who would want to be impeached on day 1? So, he's been saying some unmotivating things, like "I might die," not to mention challenging people to pushups and insulting them.

If SC doesn't give him a bounce, I think he'll be out. He'll give support to Bloomberg. Trump vs Bloomberg: the kinder, gentler oligarch. Not interested. Maybe I will move to another country or just live off the grid.
 
Bloomberg is a case study in how much of an election can you outright buy.

There should be some sort of restriction or law against the absurd amount of advertising he's doing. He's the ultimate case of money in politics. I always thought that would instead come from the Republicans.
 
I keep seeing ads on TV for someone called Tom Steyer, where does he come into it, if at all ?
 
Don2 (Don1 Revised) said:
Just opinion... I don't think Biden actually wants to win. I mean who would want to be impeached on day 1?
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I know you're being sarcastic, but seriously - if Biden were to win the presidential race, what are the chances that Republicans would win back the House and therefore be able to impeach anyone? Zero, or less than zero? That's like thinking Trump will "win" by hook or crook and the Dems will win 67 Senate seats and be able to take him out.
Republitards threatening to impeach Biden are comical dufuses of the same grand order as Dems threatening to re-impeach and remove El Cheato.
 
Jolly_Penguin said:
Trausti said:
My goodness. This is all a gift to Trump.
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It really is. And he capitalized on it quickly as did other Republicans: "They can't even do this and they want to run our health care?" a few have been quoted (or paraphrased) saying.

"
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It should be remembered that the 2012 Republican Iowa caucus was just as big if not a bigger fiasco. It took weeks before the final winner was named.
 
My wife said this morning "Is this really confusion in the Democratic party or is it that there are so many good candidates this year?"
 
Elixir said:
Don2 (Don1 Revised) said:
Just opinion... I don't think Biden actually wants to win. I mean who would want to be impeached on day 1?
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I know you're being sarcastic, but seriously - if Biden were to win the presidential race, what are the chances that Republicans would win back the House and therefore be able to impeach anyone? Zero, or less than zero? That's like thinking Trump will "win" by hook or crook and the Dems will win 67 Senate seats and be able to take him out.
Republitards threatening to impeach Biden are comical dufuses of the same grand order as Dems threatening to re-impeach and remove El Cheato.
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Correction: "I mean who would want to be investigated for impeachment on day 1?" Imagine Trump with his Twitter bullhorn and the media whores just all following him around, giving him free press for 4 years every day (and night when he poop tweets)...while Russianpublicans go into histrionic conniption fits in the House and Senate until they take the majority lead. If there's one thing Republicans are good at, it's tricking some of the working poor into going against their own interests and having Biden, a corporate-friendly Democrat in office, whose son served on many corporate boards helps to piece together that narrative. It's not that Republican politards are especially skilled or anything, but they stand on the shoulders of giants. Giant corporations. Giant religious institutions. Giant Dark Web Media Messaging from Foreign Countries which shall remain nameless.

I was indeed half-joking about him not wanting to win, but wow, he really seems off for some reason. Also, I really think if he cannot bounce by SC, he has no chance of winning.
 
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