Iowa Caucuses (or Cauci?)

[Politesse]

96% of precincts reporting. Biden has yet to pick up a single delegate; Buttigieg and Sanders with 11 each. An interesting start to the end game. Not great news if you're a centrist, you're going to end up with either kid mayor or billionaire mayor as your candidate if this keeps up.

Don't know why everyone is acting so surprised about the delay, this is not the first time Iowa has got up to some weird shit. Even when everything goes as planned, their caucus is pretty damn weird. If there is a conspiracy, I think it's the state tourism bored wanting everyone to talk about Iowa four five days every four years, rather than two days like usual. This is the state's only event.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Well, the Iowa voters have spoken. Congratulations to Buttigieg. Huge win for him. Sanders was close. The interesting thing to me is that three moderates (Buttigieg, Biden, and Klobuchar) won 54.8% of the vote, while the Sanders/Warren got 43.6%. This bodes very well for the moderates to be making a statement.

This is exactly why they prematurely released only 61% of the vote, and ignored large pro-Bernie segments of Iowa.

View attachment 25988

It's not about the delegates, and not about the opinions of Iowans; neither are important to the primary nor the general. The early states in this phase of the electoral process are about optics, and the fact that you are basically convinced that Pete took Iowa when he didn't is precisely the outcome this was engineered to deliver.

It's Wednesday and we still don't have the results of the final count, despite all of the ballots being available by 2:30PM yesterday.

We’ve had the state party at our @polkdems HQ since 10:30 this morning. All of the results from all 177 of our precincts have been provided to them as of 2:30.

Thank you to all 177 of our precinct chairs for getting every physical copy turned in in record time.

For the results to still not be completely, transparently available, and in the shadow of Trump's address to the nation and Pelosi's charming theatrics on camera, seems an awful lot like printing something false one day and putting the correction on page 9 the next day. It also appears to have worked on its intended audience.

I'm on the fence as to whether this was a conspiracy or not.

1. I think the analysis of these uncounted areas favoring Bernie is SOLID.
2. However, I prefer Hanlon's Razor. As an alternate explanation, urban areas may take longer because it's more people.

97% of results are in. Bernie is now only 3 SDE behind. This seems smaller than .1%.

CAUCUS RESULTS

I don't get the tables either. Bernie's raw numbers in first alignment and final alignment are much higher. But final delegate count has Pete with 3 more delegates. I suspect it's something to do with population centers getting delegates but what do I know.

Can someone explain it?

Apparently, there was also a county where 24 votes mysteriously went to Deval Patrick but belonged to Bernie.

ERROR: Iowa Democratic Party issues “minor correction,” possibly to Black Hawk County results

So I remain suspicious, but I don't really see a proof.

 

[lpetrich]

Sawyer Hackett on Twitter: "ICYMI: @AOC says on livestream it’s time to get rid of Iowa caucuses, referencing disenfranchisement, participation, etc.
“Y’all. JulianCastro is correct...shout-out to Julián—bringing this up while you’re a presidential candidate. Eso se toma ganas. That takes ganas.” https://t.co/JDWE1Urnih" / Twitter

I checked on how good the Iowa caucuses are at predicting nominations, and I found some pages with the work already done:
Examining the Iowa Caucus Track Record on Predicting Presidents - ABC News
How Predictive Are Iowa And New Hampshire? : NPR

From both of them, Iowa has:

• D: contests: 8, nominated: 6, won: 2
• R: contests: 7, nominated: 3, won: 1

From the second one, New Hampshire has:

• D: contests: 8, nominated: 5, won: 1
• R: contests: 7, nominated: 5, won: 2

So Iowa is fairly successful in picking the eventual nominee.

Iowa or New Hampshire:

• D: contests: 8, nominated: 7, won: 2
• R: contests: 7, nominated: 7, won: 3

Iowa and New Hampshire:

• D: contests: 8, nominated: 4, won: 1
• R: contests: 7, nominated: 1, won: 0

 

[Rhea]

It’s interesting to see all the “it’s not fair” and “it’s rigged” and “they cheated,” coming from Sanders folks.

We recall that the reason the Iowa Caucuses tried to report all this extra complicated data i because Sanders folks complained last time about how the caucus system was rigged because the process of moving votes from unviable candidates didn’t favor him so he wanted to hear about the “first round” so he could say he got more votes.

Once again, complaining about the system that he signed up to join.
I find it does not endear me to him. Or the supporters making so much of it.

Bernie is the one who ASKED FOR all this extra reporting that confused the caucus managers. And now he’s complaining that they are taking to long to process it.

I don’t remember him being active in the party to make the system viable. Just shouting from the sidelines while Democrats did all the work for him.


Interesting. And not impressive.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

97% reporting.

First Alignment:
Bernie Sanders -- 2,126 -- 31%
Pete Buttigieg -- 1,593 -- 23%

Final Alignment:
Bernie Sanders -- 44,753 -- 27%
Pete Buttigieg -- 42,235 -- 25%

Computed Delegate Count:
Pete Buttigieg -- 550 -- 26.22%
Bernie Sanders -- 547 -- 26.07%

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Supporters of President Donald Trump flooded a hotline used by Iowa precinct chairs to report Democratic caucus results after the telephone number was posted online, worsening delays in the statewide tally, a top state Democrat told party leaders on a conference call Wednesday night.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...flooded-iowa-caucus-hotline-top-democrat-says

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It’s interesting to see all the “it’s not fair” and “it’s rigged” and “they cheated,” coming from Sanders folks.

Or people claiming to be Sanders supporters. One would need to be pretty damn stupid to consider this harming Sanders, finishing first or a very close second is a boost with Iowa.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Supporters of President Donald Trump flooded a hotline used by Iowa precinct chairs to report Democratic caucus results after the telephone number was posted online, worsening delays in the statewide tally, a top state Democrat told party leaders on a conference call Wednesday night.

That'd be pretty bad if supporters of a candidate were making with the rat phucking.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Obviously Putin had hackers switch Biden votes and Buttigeig votes.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

From CNN (we apparently want a second Trump term):

Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are in a tight race for first place as Iowa continued reporting the last of its Democratic presidential caucus results early Thursday morning.

This isn't the Indy 500 or the 100 meter sprint where 0.001 inches is the difference between the top of the the podium and 2nd place.

Buttigieg and Sanders won the Iowa Caucus. There is no other responsible way to report this. Buttigieg did much better than expected, Sanders did very well. Warren is slumping and Biden has been thoroughly rat phucked. To present Buttigieg's and Sander's position in the results as dramatic is ridiculous.

 

[Jarhyn]

From CNN (we apparently want a second Trump term):

Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are in a tight race for first place as Iowa continued reporting the last of its Democratic presidential caucus results early Thursday morning.

This isn't the Indy 500 or the 100 meter sprint where 0.001 inches is the difference between the top of the the podium and 2nd place.

Buttigieg and Sanders won the Iowa Caucus. There is no other responsible way to report this. Buttigieg did much better than expected, Sanders did very well. Warren is slumping and Biden has been thoroughly rat phucked. To present Buttigieg's and Sander's position in the results as dramatic is ridiculous.

Biden wasn't ratfucked. He was self-fucked. Apparently when you tell someone as a politician to vote for someone else, they do that. Who knew?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

From CNN (we apparently want a second Trump term):

Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are in a tight race for first place as Iowa continued reporting the last of its Democratic presidential caucus results early Thursday morning.

This isn't the Indy 500 or the 100 meter sprint where 0.001 inches is the difference between the top of the the podium and 2nd place.

Buttigieg and Sanders won the Iowa Caucus. There is no other responsible way to report this. Buttigieg did much better than expected, Sanders did very well. Warren is slumping and Biden has been thoroughly rat phucked. To present Buttigieg's and Sander's position in the results as dramatic is ridiculous.

Biden wasn't ratfucked.

The whole Burisma thing was rat phucking. I was never in the "I want Methuselah to be President" camp, but Biden was screwed by Trump.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Her homophobia aside, what rock has she been living under?

It lends perspective that this is a person who cares enough about politics to caucus.

The Shoestring App Developer Behind the Iowa Caucus Debacle

Surprise, surprise, Shadow, the app company that caused this nightmare was founded a former Hillary staffer. Revenge for not voting for heiress apparent in 2008, or just doing DNC's bidding?

It's just the same old same old, hooking up friends and family and nothing more to it. Bottom line though, no one forced Iowa to buy the app.

Buttigieg and Sanders won the Iowa Caucus. There is no other responsible way to report this. Buttigieg did much better than expected, Sanders did very well. Warren is slumping and Biden has been thoroughly rat phucked. To present Buttigieg's and Sander's position in the results as dramatic is ridiculous.

They may have tied but Buttigieg won the momentum going into New Hampshire. And was I wrong to expect a wave of college age students to flood the Iowa caucus' on Bernie's behalf that didn't materialize? Sanders Achilles's heel is in mustering the power of the people. If that ain't happening, then who is Bernie Sanders?

Biden wasn't ratfucked.

The whole Burisma thing was rat phucking. I was never in the "I want Methuselah to be President" camp, but Biden was screwed by Trump.

I think there is no shortage of people like myself who still blame Biden for Trump. His time was 2016. He can take a phucking walk now for all I care.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It lends perspective that this is a person who cares enough about politics to caucus.


It's just the same old same old, hooking up friends and family and nothing more to it. Bottom line though, no one forced Iowa to buy the app.

Buttigieg and Sanders won the Iowa Caucus. There is no other responsible way to report this. Buttigieg did much better than expected, Sanders did very well. Warren is slumping and Biden has been thoroughly rat phucked. To present Buttigieg's and Sander's position in the results as dramatic is ridiculous.

They may have tied but Buttigieg won the momentum going into New Hampshire. And was I wrong to expect a wave of college age students to flood the Iowa caucus' on Bernie's behalf that didn't materialize? Sanders Achilles's heel is in mustering the power of the people. If that ain't happening, then who is Bernie Sanders?

Biden wasn't ratfucked.

The whole Burisma thing was rat phucking. I was never in the "I want Methuselah to be President" camp, but Biden was screwed by Trump.

I think there is no shortage of people like myself who still blame Biden for Trump. His time was 2016.

A bit more complicated than that. His son (the good one) had died in June 2015 from brain cancer. There was substantial amount of mourning to be had.

 

[Jarhyn]

Biden wasn't ratfucked.

The whole Burisma thing was rat phucking. I was never in the "I want Methuselah to be President" camp, but Biden was screwed by Trump.

No, he really wasn't. Nobody among the Dems gives two shit about what an obviously partisan source says about Biden. The crowing about Hunter Biden on Fox news and from the republicans Senate means absolutely nothing.

"Vote for someone else", "nothing will fundamentally change", attacking Medicare, and standing against legalization of marijuana, these things are what fucked Biden. He fucked himself.

 

[PyramidHead]

It lends perspective that this is a person who cares enough about politics to caucus.


It's just the same old same old, hooking up friends and family and nothing more to it. Bottom line though, no one forced Iowa to buy the app.

Buttigieg and Sanders won the Iowa Caucus. There is no other responsible way to report this. Buttigieg did much better than expected, Sanders did very well. Warren is slumping and Biden has been thoroughly rat phucked. To present Buttigieg's and Sander's position in the results as dramatic is ridiculous.

They may have tied but Buttigieg won the momentum going into New Hampshire. And was I wrong to expect a wave of college age students to flood the Iowa caucus' on Bernie's behalf that didn't materialize? Sanders Achilles's heel is in mustering the power of the people. If that ain't happening, then who is Bernie Sanders?

He got 6000 more votes than any other candidate and there are still unreported precincts.

 

[ZiprHead]

DNC chair calls for Iowa to recanvass caucus vote, says 'enough is enough'

Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez is calling on Iowa Democratic officials to immediately recanvass Monday's caucus vote after days of uncertainty and growing concerns about "inconsistencies" found in the data.

"Enough is enough," Perez said in a tweet. "In light of the problems that have emerged in the implementation of the delegate selection plan and in order to assure public confidence in the results, I am calling on the Iowa Democratic Party to immediately begin a recanvass."

A recanvass is essentially a double-checking of the vote. Iowa officials would have to hand audit the caucus worksheets and reporting forms to ensure that they were correctly calculated and reported.

In a statement released later on Thursday, Iowa Democratic Party Chair Troy Price did not address the request from Perez and instead said that the party would take on a recanvass if any of the presidential campaigns request it.

 

[PyramidHead]

DNC chair calls for Iowa to recanvass caucus vote, says 'enough is enough'

Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez is calling on Iowa Democratic officials to immediately recanvass Monday's caucus vote after days of uncertainty and growing concerns about "inconsistencies" found in the data.

"Enough is enough," Perez said in a tweet. "In light of the problems that have emerged in the implementation of the delegate selection plan and in order to assure public confidence in the results, I am calling on the Iowa Democratic Party to immediately begin a recanvass."

A recanvass is essentially a double-checking of the vote. Iowa officials would have to hand audit the caucus worksheets and reporting forms to ensure that they were correctly calculated and reported.

In a statement released later on Thursday, Iowa Democratic Party Chair Troy Price did not address the request from Perez and instead said that the party would take on a recanvass if any of the presidential campaigns request it.

Tom Perez should resign immediately. There are literally 3% of precincts left to count, and all signs point to a tie or a Sanders victory in SDE (and already a victory in popular vote), and this is when he steps in?

Bernie won Iowa by a comfortable margin, by thousands of people. After an unprecedented 48+ hour delay, where the precincts reported first were unequivocally the ones that made Bernie look the worst, the final picture (and the final precincts where Bernie had the most support) is starting to come in, but only after Pete has claimed victory and stolen the momentum, and the nation is focused on Nancy Pelosi tearing up a piece of paper. And now Tom Perez swoops in at the last possible second to put his thumb on the scale. It's so brazen, so crass, that I remain hopeful most of the electorate will see right through it.

 

[blastula]

Winning delegates is what counts, not votes, in winning the caucus.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

Tom Perez should resign immediately. There are literally 3% of precincts left to count, and all signs point to a tie or a Sanders victory in SDE (and already a victory in popular vote), and this is when he steps in?

Bernie won Iowa by a comfortable margin, by thousands of people. After an unprecedented 48+ hour delay, where the precincts reported first were unequivocally the ones that made Bernie look the worst, the final picture (and the final precincts where Bernie had the most support) is starting to come in, but only after Pete has claimed victory and stolen the momentum, and the nation is focused on Nancy Pelosi tearing up a piece of paper. And now Tom Perez swoops in at the last possible second to put his thumb on the scale. It's so brazen, so crass, that I remain hopeful most of the electorate will see right through it. to Trump.

Well the good news is that Bernie has shown his level of support and this may keep happening in other states. Bernie not only can win, he has a very very good chance of winning. And that terrifies the DNC.