New Hampshire Primaries

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

In the final numbers, 29% of likely primary voters say they back Sanders, 22% back former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 11% support former Vice President Joe Biden, 10% support Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and 7% back Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar. The rest of the field falls at 5% or less.

Only about half of likely primary voters in New Hampshire say they have definitely decided for whom they will vote, meaning that despite the stability in the numbers throughout the six-day tracking period, there remains room for preferences to shift.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/10/politics/new-hampshire-poll/index.html

Let's see what else happens.

 

[Derec]

Well, Dixville Notch has already voted and Michael Bloomberg won! Good omen for the nomination?


As to the actual NH primary, if you look at all the recent polling, Bernie is nearly consistently first, Buttigieg nearly consistently second. Where the excitement will come is the three-way race between Warren, Biden and Klobuchar for third place.

Which campaigns will crash out of the race tomorrow?

Any one of them could eek out the third place (although Mad Hatter Amy is least likely to do so, although NH likes to defy expectations), and that could be the difference between getting some delegates vs. none, since there is a 15% threshold. 24 NH pledged delegates are awarded 8 at large and 8 in each of the two Congressional districts. So a candidate could slip below 15% statewide and still get delegates if they are above 15% in one of the districts.

Edited to add: MH Amy just pulled ahead with 8 votes. LMAO!

 

[fromderinside]

Other remote places in NH also vote at midnight Derec. Here is latest NPR live vote tally and Klobuchar is running two to one ahead of both bernie and liz. https://apps.npr.org/liveblogs/20200211-new-hampshire/

Looking at totals moderates are also running two to one ahead of liberals.

Perhaps an indicator of a path forward for the public option.

 

[Derec]

Other remote places in NH also vote at midnight Derec.

That's what I wrote full 18 minutes before your post. Thanks Johnny come lately.

Anyway, excited to see who will be "the best of the rest" and who of the rest gets any delegates.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

New Hampshire, the Dumb as Granite State. But they are just voting in a primary, not in some Rube Goldberg devised system of democratic torture.

My prediction is Sanders wins, Buttigieg wins, Klobuchar wins, every one else except for Yang loses. Yang... literally disintegrates into nothing in a bizarre highly unlikely quantum event.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Suffolk’s pollsters found Sanders to be in the lead, with 26.6 percent support; Buttigieg followed with 19.4 percent. Sen. Amy Klobuchar was third with 13.6 percent of likely Democratic voters backing her, former Vice President Joe Biden was fourth with 11.8 percent, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren rounded out the top five 11.6 percent. No other candidate received more than 3 percent support. The poll’s margin of error is 4.4 percentage points.

Emerson’s poll found very similar results, with Sanders in first with 30 percent support of likely Democratic primary voters, and Buttigieg in second with 23.1 percent. (Sanders’s lead again is within the poll’s 4.3 percentage point margin of error.) Klobuchar was in third with 14.2 percent, Warren fourth at 10.6 percent, and Biden at the bottom of the top tier with 9.8 percent. No other candidate got more than 4 percent support.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/11/21129724/new-hampshire-primary-winner-polls

Here it is in tabular form.

Suffolk poll:
[TABLE="class: grid"]
[TR]
[TD]Candidate
[/TD]
[TD]Percent
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sanders
[/TD]
[TD]26.6%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Buttigieg
[/TD]
[TD]19.4%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Klobuchar
[/TD]
[TD]13.6%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Biden
[/TD]
[TD]11.8%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Warren
[/TD]
[TD]11.6%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Others
[/TD]
[TD]<=3% each
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Emerson poll:
[TABLE="class: grid"]
[TR]
[TD]Candidate
[/TD]
[TD]Percent
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sanders
[/TD]
[TD]30.0%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Buttigieg
[/TD]
[TD]23.1%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Klobuchar
[/TD]
[TD]14.2%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Warren
[/TD]
[TD]10.6%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Biden
[/TD]
[TD]9.8%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Others
[/TD]
[TD]<=4% each
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It'll be interesting to see where Warren supporters head to, some probably to Sanders, others to Klobuchar. Biden dwindling as well, Buttigieg and Klobuchar. Does Sanders benefit from a 2 moderate v 1 liberal election?

#goamy

 

[Elixir]

Will they be able to tell how many Republicans voted in the NH Dem primary?

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Will they be able to tell how many Republicans voted in the NH Dem primary?

Registered Republicans are disallowed from voting in the Dem primary. So it should be 0.

Somewhat related...:

An independent can vote in either, but must choose which one at the primary. Among independents Sanders is doing very well in NH. He does better than any of the other top Dem candidates. Trump also does well among independents. Republicans have been imploring independents to vote in the Democratic primary instead of the Republican primary, but to vote for a moderate.

"Never Trump" Republicans in New Hampshire have started a campaign encouraging right-leaning independents to vote in Tuesday's Democratic primary and not in the Republican primary, which President Donald Trump is expected to win.

The campaign, as NHJournal reported Sunday, includes calls and text messages to right-leaning independents but does not mention or endorse specific candidates by name. Instead, it encourages the independent voters to cast their ballot in the Democratic race and to support moderate candidates rather than the progressives.

"We're trying to save the nation from a choice between Trumpism and socialism," Bill Kristol, the founder of the Weekly Standard conservative magazine who is one of the most prominent Republicans associated with the Never Trump movement, told the NHJournal.

https://www.businessinsider.com/nh-primary-sanders-republicans-independents-vote-dem-beat-2020-2

So, basically, Democratic-leaning independents will tend to support Sanders over other candidates. Republican-leaning independents will tend to support moderates over Sanders.

However, Republican-leaning independents are possibly flooding Dem primaries because the GOP primary isn't competitive, and they're voting (possibly) against Sanders:

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Arguably the most important group to watch in Tuesday night’s Democratic primary here are the state’s undeclared — or independent — voters, who make up a larger share of New Hampshire’s electorate (42 percent) than any other voting bloc.

In 2016, Bernie Sanders won a whopping 73 percent of these independent voters. But in our NBC News/Marist poll we released on Friday, Sanders was getting just 22 percent of them — compared with Buttigieg at 25 percent and Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren at 10 percent apiece.

What’s going on here? Well, because there isn’t a competitive GOP primary this year, you not only have pro-Bernie indies, you also have the GOP-leaning independents who backed John Kasich and Jeb Bush in 2016.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/me...n-new-hampshire-s-independent-voters-n1133841

 

[Politesse]

It'll be interesting to see where Warren supporters head to, some probably to Sanders, others to Klobuchar. Biden dwindling as well, Buttigieg and Klobuchar. Does Sanders benefit from a 2 moderate v 1 liberal election?

#goamy

She's my favorite of the moderates, to be sure. But I'm not liking her odds at the moment.

 

[southernhybrid]

I don't care what happens in NH, another small mostly white state. I want to see what happens on Super Tuesday next month, when many of the large states vote. Some of the current candidates will be dead in the water by then, while others might unexpectedly float to the top.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I don't care what happens in NH, another small mostly white state. I want to see what happens on Super Tuesday next month, when many of the large states vote. Some of the current candidates will be dead in the water by then, while others might unexpectedly float to the top.

Iowa and New Hampshire is a weeding process. Indeed, Super Tuesday will be much much more significant. Whether Klobuchar makes it to Super Tuesday does, in large part, depend on New Hampshire.

 

[Elixir]

I don't care what happens in NH, another small mostly white state. I want to see what happens on Super Tuesday next month, when many of the large states vote. Some of the current candidates will be dead in the water by then, while others might unexpectedly float to the top.

That's a terrible visual, SH. Dead candidates floating to the top... but I guess that's how it happens IRL, eh?
(At least when you fish with dynamite)

 

[southernhybrid]

I don't care what happens in NH, another small mostly white state. I want to see what happens on Super Tuesday next month, when many of the large states vote. Some of the current candidates will be dead in the water by then, while others might unexpectedly float to the top.

That's a terrible visual, SH. Dead candidates floating to the top... but I guess that's how it happens IRL, eh?
(At least when you fish with dynamite)

Lol. I know. I couldn't help myself. The ones who float to the top will need to have successful CPR or they will fall back under water.

I've been watching the coverage for most of the morning. A lot of voters are saying it's a hard decision because there are so many great candidates. I guess I'm weird because I see it the opposite way. I don't see any of the candidates as great. I just hope that whoever gets nominated has a chance to bring down the orange scourge.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I was originally going to joke about Klobuchar winning big in NH with the initial Midnight vote count. But after a little thinking, the Senator in Minnesota, who came in fifth in SDE's and Delegates is leading in the aggregate from three tiny towns in northern New Hampshire. Those seem like peculiar tea leaves. Yes, Wesley Clark won in '04, but he was military. I find the Klobuchar result very interesting.

Here is some data between '92 and '16.

Sanders is expected to win, but does Klobuchar replace Buttigieg as the 2nd place runner up? Klobuchar doesn't need to win, but she needs a solid finish. Clinton was sold as "the come back kid" in '92 with his 2nd place finish in New Hampshire.

Some more fodder, Bill Clinton won only one primary/caucus out of the first eleven events in '92. Iowa was messed up with local Harkin, and likewise Tsongas (MA) through off New Hampshire. But 9 more contests, and Clinton only won once. But he did top 3 in 6 of them (only 6 of them?). Buttigieg is a dark horse created because of Biden's collapse due to Trump's rat phucking. But Klobuchar could be the dark horse's dark horse, as she is a much better (on paper) candidate than Buttigieg. Her demographic, geography, experience present a much better candidate, and she would also be a lot easier to pair with a VP to 'balance the ticket'.

 

[Jarhyn]

I was originally going to joke about Klobuchar winning big in NH with the initial Midnight vote count. But after a little thinking, the Senator in Minnesota, who came in fifth in SDE's and Delegates is leading in the aggregate from three tiny towns in northern New Hampshire. Those seem like peculiar tea leaves. Yes, Wesley Clark won in '04, but he was military. I find the Klobuchar result very interesting.

Here is some data between '92 and '16.

Sanders is expected to win, but does Klobuchar replace Buttigieg as the 2nd place runner up? Klobuchar doesn't need to win, but she needs a solid finish. Clinton was sold as "the come back kid" in '92 with his 2nd place finish in New Hampshire.

Some more fodder, Bill Clinton won only one primary/caucus out of the first eleven events in '92. Iowa was messed up with local Harkin, and likewise Tsongas (MA) through off New Hampshire. But 9 more contests, and Clinton only won once. But he did top 3 in 6 of them (only 6 of them?). Buttigieg is a dark horse created because of Biden's collapse due to Trump's rat phucking. But Klobuchar could be the dark horse's dark horse, as she is a much better (on paper) candidate than Buttigieg. Her demographic, geography, experience present a much better candidate, and she would also be a lot easier to pair with a VP to 'balance the ticket'.

You keep saying that Trump ratfucked Biden but he really didn't.

Biden fucked himself, plain and simple.

Between telling people to go vote for someone else, coming out against marijuana, his whole history with the Anita Hill thing, repeated attempts to cut Medicare, creepy behavior around women, "nothing will change"; every time he opened his mouth some rotting position straight from 1972 rolls out.

He tried to attack Roe 3 times!

He was Obama's token to conservatives, literally the most conservative old dude Obama could find. We ALL knew that every time he opened his mouth he would dig himself a deeper hole, and that was long before Trump started trying to get foreign powers to dig up dirt that only republicans would see or believe.

Biden was DoA, and it shakes any faith I may have had in you that you did not see this coming.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

I was originally going to joke about Klobuchar winning big in NH with the initial Midnight vote count. But after a little thinking, the Senator in Minnesota, who came in fifth in SDE's and Delegates is leading in the aggregate from three tiny towns in northern New Hampshire. Those seem like peculiar tea leaves. Yes, Wesley Clark won in '04, but he was military. I find the Klobuchar result very interesting.

Here is some data between '92 and '16.

Sanders is expected to win, but does Klobuchar replace Buttigieg as the 2nd place runner up? Klobuchar doesn't need to win, but she needs a solid finish. Clinton was sold as "the come back kid" in '92 with his 2nd place finish in New Hampshire.

Some more fodder, Bill Clinton won only one primary/caucus out of the first eleven events in '92. Iowa was messed up with local Harkin, and likewise Tsongas (MA) through off New Hampshire. But 9 more contests, and Clinton only won once. But he did top 3 in 6 of them (only 6 of them?). Buttigieg is a dark horse created because of Biden's collapse due to Trump's rat phucking. But Klobuchar could be the dark horse's dark horse, as she is a much better (on paper) candidate than Buttigieg. Her demographic, geography, experience present a much better candidate, and she would also be a lot easier to pair with a VP to 'balance the ticket'.

You keep saying that Trump ratfucked Biden but he really didn't.

Biden fucked himself, plain and simple.

Between telling people to go vote for someone else, coming out against marijuana, his whole history with the Anita Hill thing, repeated attempts to cut Medicare, creepy behavior around women, "nothing will change"; every time he opened his mouth some rotting position straight from 1972 rolls out.

He tried to attack Roe 3 times!

He was Obama's token to conservatives, literally the most conservative old dude Obama could find. We ALL knew that every time he opened his mouth he would dig himself a deeper hole, and that was long before Trump started trying to get foreign powers to dig up dirt that only republicans would see or believe.

Biden was DoA, and it shakes any faith I may have had in you that you did not see this coming.

I agree but Biden might do well later in conservative states like SC.

Klobuchar is also very Republican Lite like Biden and so she really is his dark horse.

But on top of that Bloomberg will steal her thunder. He's the dark horse's dark horse's dark horse.

So, this likely comes down to Bloomberg versus Bernie. Bloomberg will win. He might choose Amy as his VP later. Trump will beat them.

All the primaries and caucuses are just a dog and pony faced soldier show. We became a Banana Republic a long time ago.

 

[J842P]

It'll be interesting to see where Warren supporters head to, some probably to Sanders, others to Klobuchar. Biden dwindling as well, Buttigieg and Klobuchar. Does Sanders benefit from a 2 moderate v 1 liberal election?

#goamy

She's my favorite of the moderates, to be sure. But I'm not liking her odds at the moment.

This is how I feel. I do hope she will run again in the future, though.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

You keep saying that Trump ratfucked Biden but he really didn't.

Biden fucked himself, plain and simple.

Between telling people to go vote for someone else, coming out against marijuana, his whole history with the Anita Hill thing, repeated attempts to cut Medicare, creepy behavior around women, "nothing will change"; every time he opened his mouth some rotting position straight from 1972 rolls out.

He tried to attack Roe 3 times!

He was Obama's token to conservatives, literally the most conservative old dude Obama could find. We ALL knew that every time he opened his mouth he would dig himself a deeper hole, and that was long before Trump started trying to get foreign powers to dig up dirt that only republicans would see or believe.

Biden was DoA, and it shakes any faith I may have had in you that you did not see this coming.

I agree but Biden might do well later in conservative states like SC.

Klobuchar is also very Republican Lite like Biden and so she really is his dark horse.

But on top of that Bloomberg will steal her thunder. He's the dark horse's dark horse's dark horse.

Dark horses don't have billions in the bank.

So, this likely comes down to Bloomberg versus Bernie. Bloomberg will win. He might choose Amy as his VP later. Trump will beat them.

All the primaries and caucuses are just a dog and pony faced soldier show. We became a Banana Republic a long time ago.

Is that why we had Clinton v Giuliani in '08 in the general election?

Also, Amy gains the ticket nothing if Bloomberg was the nominee.

Isn't it something Bernie Sanders (Democrat Socialist) and Mike Bloomberg (Log Cabin Republican)... running in the Democrat Primary.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Dark horses don't have billions in the bank.

I get what you are saying, but I think that the thing that makes him a dark horse is that his positions and influence are shrouded in mystery. His influence is hard to pinpoint, aside from the obvious media he controls. His policies are light and will likely suddenly change or become more rightward in the General. He's "flexible."

So, this likely comes down to Bloomberg versus Bernie. Bloomberg will win. He might choose Amy as his VP later. Trump will beat them.

All the primaries and caucuses are just a dog and pony faced soldier show. We became a Banana Republic a long time ago.

Is that why we had Clinton v Giuliani in '08 in the general election?

Also, Amy gains the ticket nothing if Bloomberg was the nominee.

Isn't it something Bernie Sanders (Democrat Socialist) and Mike Bloomberg (Log Cabin Republican)... running in the Democrat Primary.

I'm just thinking of all the billionaires in our politics lately. We've got Mitt Romney running a few years back and now he's looked up to by Democrats as a model of honesty but that's what it takes to beat Trump, someone independently wealthy. Which brings me to Tom Steyer making it a point to say it will take a billionaire to beat Trump and then the other billionaire Bloomberg essentially arguing the same thing. But it's not so much the arguments as it is his control over media and getting to skip all those debates.

You don't have to call him a dark horse if you don't want to, but he's coming out of nowhere in a sense. From 0 to a sudden 15% national polling after dumping $300 million into campaign advertising. Bloomberg is showing national momentum and it's hard to gauge when it will stop from diminishing returns on investment. I don't agree with all of Amy's policies, but I like her personality. BUT she's only polling (see the link I just gave) at 4% nationally.

Bloomberg has her number. I've called this a Banana Republic because all this interference by money. Amy (and others) have put a lot of hard work into arguing their policies and debating with other candidates. That someone can come out of nowhere to nearly quadruple Amy's numbers just because he has money underscores this point.