New report on climate change released today

[DrZoidberg]

Again you and others here are failing to point to any prediction ever made about some catastrophic event caused by globa........oops, sorry.........I mean " climate change " that's eventuated! Predictions of 1.5 -2 degree rise in the next 20 -30 years made decades ago were way off the mark. Who's responsible for publishing this rubbish but extremists and alarmists who have taken to this nonsense like evangelical fundamentalists take to religion!

Even the very left leaning ABC broadcasting network here in Australia acknowledges temperatures have only risen 0.8 of a degree in the last 130 years despite massive increases in carbon emissions during that period, and remember, the Earth is still coming out of the Little Ice Age.

Bullshit.

Sagan predicted temperatures would rise higher than normal in the near future.

In the near future temperatures were record highs year after year.

He predicted we would see more powerful storms and we see it.

Year after year.

To say what is starting to happen now was not predicted is just a lie.

What would support your side would be for average temperatures to drop to what they were in the 80's.

But average temperatures higher than the temperatures in the 80's year after year proves Sagan was right.

View attachment 19227

Sagan says in the early 80's that soon average temperatures will rise abnormally.

You say it is a coincidence they do.

Nobody but an idiot would buy your coincidence bullshit.

But a prediction made with shaky data. He was proven correct... largely. But there was a lot of guesswork in his prediction. Which is different from how things are now. He's not the pope of science.

 

[untermensche]

No data was shaky.

The models were not as good.

So even with poorer models than they have today their predictions were accurate.

A reason their models today should be trusted.

Not a reason to lie and say that what is now occurring was not predicted.

 

[ZiprHead]

[YOUTUBE]https://youtu.be/Mb_8DJF6Hp0[/YOUTUBE]

 

[Tammuz]

I have never been a climate denier, but for a long, long time, the issue was just in the background for me. I assumed that yeah, we'll fix it eventually. It the past few months, I started to really read up on it. And I have since suffered from sort of, I don't know, some sort of mild melancholy like a wet filter on my mind when thinking about climate change and the disastrous way the world is heading. It doesn't seem we are going to fix it at all, globally speaking. Theoretically, we could keep it below 1.5C, but there is just not the political will to do that (and the leaders of two big countries, Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, are pushing hard to make it worse). 2C is considered about the worst that our civilization could manage, though it too would still be very destructive for the planet. Yet as of now, we seem to be heading toward a significantly greater increase than 2C by the year 2100.

Sure, I live in Sweden, so I have better prospects than a lot of people in the world to make it okay through what's coming. Sweden is far north, so it won't get intolerably warm. It is a rich, stable democracy, which means that it will be able to mitigate the effects of global warming that will still hit us. But I can't be content in that knowledge, as much of the world will turn into a wasteland, and there will be massive suffering of humans and other animals. I care about the wider world, not just about myself. I do try to reduce my own environmental impact, but that is still a drop in the ocean and in the end it won't make a difference.

How do you feel on a personal level about global warming, and our collective inability to do something about it?

 

[repoman]

I have never been a climate denier, but for a long, long time, the issue was just in the background for me. I assumed that yeah, we'll fix it eventually. It the past few months, I started to really read up on it. And I have since suffered from sort of, I don't know, some sort of mild melancholy like a wet filter on my mind when thinking about climate change and the disastrous way the world is heading. It doesn't seem we are going to fix it at all, globally speaking. Theoretically, we could keep it below 1.5C, but there is just not the political will to do that (and the leaders of two big countries, Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, are pushing hard to make it worse). 2C is considered about the worst that our civilization could manage, though it too would still be very destructive for the planet. Yet as of now, we seem to be heading toward a significantly greater increase than 2C by the year 2100.

Sure, I live in Sweden, so I have better prospects than a lot of people in the world to make it okay through what's coming. Sweden is far north, so it won't get intolerably warm. It is a rich, stable democracy, which means that it will be able to mitigate the effects of global warming that will still hit us. But I can't be content in that knowledge, as much of the world will turn into a wasteland, and there will be massive suffering of humans and other animals. I care about the wider world, not just about myself. I do try to reduce my own environmental impact, but that is still a drop in the ocean and in the end it won't make a difference.

How do you feel on a personal level about global warming, and our collective inability to do something about it?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_amplification

 

[SimpleDon]

This data has been available but ignored by those who have an ulterior motive, for 40 years.

What exactly would that "ulterior motive" be for all of the world's scientists, NASA, the US Military and Exxon?

All aboard the gravy train. This climate change nonsense has become an industry worth trillions of taxpayers dollars and anyone mildly involved in it knows which side his toast is buttered on!

If the climate scientists and NASA wanted to ride the "gravy train" of climate change nonsense wouldn't they have failed to reach a conclusion and said that much more research had to go into the question? More research would mean more money for climate scientists.

And I fail to see any advantage for Exxon to come from selling less oil, a necessary feature of fighting the climate change nonsense.

 

[repoman]

I have never been a climate denier, but for a long, long time, the issue was just in the background for me. I assumed that yeah, we'll fix it eventually. It the past few months, I started to really read up on it. And I have since suffered from sort of, I don't know, some sort of mild melancholy like a wet filter on my mind when thinking about climate change and the disastrous way the world is heading. It doesn't seem we are going to fix it at all, globally speaking. Theoretically, we could keep it below 1.5C, but there is just not the political will to do that (and the leaders of two big countries, Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, are pushing hard to make it worse). 2C is considered about the worst that our civilization could manage, though it too would still be very destructive for the planet. Yet as of now, we seem to be heading toward a significantly greater increase than 2C by the year 2100.

Sure, I live in Sweden, so I have better prospects than a lot of people in the world to make it okay through what's coming. Sweden is far north, so it won't get intolerably warm. It is a rich, stable democracy, which means that it will be able to mitigate the effects of global warming that will still hit us. But I can't be content in that knowledge, as much of the world will turn into a wasteland, and there will be massive suffering of humans and other animals. I care about the wider world, not just about myself. I do try to reduce my own environmental impact, but that is still a drop in the ocean and in the end it won't make a difference.

How do you feel on a personal level about global warming, and our collective inability to do something about it?

Angelo wants to avoid this feeling that Tammuz is having. Global warming implications are rough.

Emotional cowardice?

 

[repoman]

So in a previous post Angelo talked about sea level changing in the past even without humans.

So what is the solution for ports and coastal cities for sea level changes from any cause?

Look at the massive investment in coasts still now despite the warning signs.

The answer to this should have ZERO reference to whether it is from humans or not.

Seems like this topic is a personal "anger vent" hobbyhorse for angelo and is not rational at all. I have my own topics for that, not trying to be a hypocrite.

 

[repoman]

One aspect of CO2 level changes from humans versus the past is the cause and the speed.

In the past CO2 level was usually dictated what types of ocean crust was being consumed by plate tectonics and coming out of volcanos. Carbonate poor rocks would lead to low CO2 and cooler climate and carbonate rich rocks the opposite.

There is a bit more to this basic effect, including weathering rates and other (mostly negative) feedback loops. The real worry is when positive feedback loops kick in strongly; lower albedo from melting ice, tundra and methane hydrates dislodging due to heat and so on.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

So in a previous post Angelo talked about sea level changing in the past even without humans.

So what is the solution for ports and coastal cities for sea level changes from any cause?

Look at the massive investment in coasts still now despite the warning signs.

The answer to this should have ZERO reference to whether it is from humans or not.

Seems like this topic is a personal "anger vent" hobbyhorse for angelo and is not rational at all. I have my own topics for that, not trying to be a hypocrite.

There's some merit to his general idea--if the cause is natural it's probably not something we have the power to change. Look at the up/down/up/down nature of the temperature graph. That's natural and I seriously doubt we could change it short of orbital mirrors. The overall rising trendline, though, is man-made and in theory within our power to alter. (In practice, I doubt the political will exists to actually do it before the problems are catastrophic.)

 

[Tammuz]

There's some merit to his general idea--if the cause is natural it's probably not something we have the power to change. Look at the up/down/up/down nature of the temperature graph. That's natural and I seriously doubt we could change it short of orbital mirrors.

Let's say that we make it through the current climate change challenge okayish. Then we could, in principle, put CO2 into the atmosphere in order to prevent an ice age, I think.

(In practice, I doubt the political will exists to actually do it before the problems are catastrophic.)

That's the problem. What's wrong with people?

 

[angelo]

Again you and others here are failing to point to any prediction ever made about some catastrophic event caused by globa........oops, sorry.........I mean " climate change " that's eventuated! Predictions of 1.5 -2 degree rise in the next 20 -30 years made decades ago were way off the mark. Who's responsible for publishing this rubbish but extremists and alarmists who have taken to this nonsense like evangelical fundamentalists take to religion!

Even the very left leaning ABC broadcasting network here in Australia acknowledges temperatures have only risen 0.8 of a degree in the last 130 years despite massive increases in carbon emissions during that period, and remember, the Earth is still coming out of the Little Ice Age.

Bullshit.

Sagan predicted temperatures would rise higher than normal in the near future.

In the near future temperatures were record highs year after year.

He predicted we would see more powerful storms and we see it.

Year after year.

To say what is starting to happen now was not predicted is just a lie.

What would support your side would be for average temperatures to drop to what they were in the 80's.

But average temperatures higher than the temperatures in the 80's year after year proves Sagan was right.

View attachment 19227

Sagan says in the early 80's that soon average temperatures will rise abnormally.

You say it is a coincidence they do.

Nobody but an idiot would buy your coincidence bullshit.

Carl Sagan was an astronomer and author. He never claimed to be an expert on climate. He was also an excellent SF writer. I enjoyed immensely his SF book " Contact."

I'm positive that were he still alive today he would expose all these extremists for what they are.........leeches and pseudoscience fraudsters.

 

[angelo]

I have never been a climate denier, but for a long, long time, the issue was just in the background for me. I assumed that yeah, we'll fix it eventually. It the past few months, I started to really read up on it. And I have since suffered from sort of, I don't know, some sort of mild melancholy like a wet filter on my mind when thinking about climate change and the disastrous way the world is heading. It doesn't seem we are going to fix it at all, globally speaking. Theoretically, we could keep it below 1.5C, but there is just not the political will to do that (and the leaders of two big countries, Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, are pushing hard to make it worse). 2C is considered about the worst that our civilization could manage, though it too would still be very destructive for the planet. Yet as of now, we seem to be heading toward a significantly greater increase than 2C by the year 2100.

Sure, I live in Sweden, so I have better prospects than a lot of people in the world to make it okay through what's coming. Sweden is far north, so it won't get intolerably warm. It is a rich, stable democracy, which means that it will be able to mitigate the effects of global warming that will still hit us. But I can't be content in that knowledge, as much of the world will turn into a wasteland, and there will be massive suffering of humans and other animals. I care about the wider world, not just about myself. I do try to reduce my own environmental impact, but that is still a drop in the ocean and in the end it won't make a difference.

How do you feel on a personal level about global warming, and our collective inability to do something about it?

Were humanity to completely stop using fossil fuels tomorrow and everyone on Earth move into caves and make a living as hunter gatherers like our ancestors, one major volcanic eruption over about 4-5 days would produce more CO than human activity does over 5 years!

No one here is denying that climate changes, it does and has done so for billions of years, and will continue to do so until the expanding Sun burns the Earth to a crisp!

Nothing mere mortals do to combat climate change will make one iota of difference to the overall picture of a natural evolving planet Earth or to it's parent star the Sun.

Consider this.........." An episode of extreme global warming that left ocean animals unable to breath caused the biggest mass extinction in the Earth's history, research has shown.

This extinction event at the end of the Permian period 252 million years ago wiped out 96% of all marine species and 70% of land dwelling vertebrates.

Scientists have linked what has become known as the " Great Dying" with a series of massive volcanic eruptions in Siberia that filled the atmosphere with greenhouse gas.

The study, reported in the journal Science suggests that as temperatures soared the warmer water could not hold enough oxygen for most marine creatures to survive."

Lessons from the Great Dying have major implications for the fate of the future world regardless of what mankind does.

 

[angelo]

According to most estimates, the rate of average surface warming has slowed since 2001, despite ongoing rises in greenhouse gases. This slowdown is consistent with known climate variability. Indeed, decades of little or no temperature trend can be seen throughout the last century, superimposed on the long-term warming trend.

Two main factors have contributed to the most recent period of slowed surface warming. First, decadal variability in the ocean-atmosphere system has redistributed heat in the ocean, especially in the eastern and central Pacific. This has caused warming at depth and cooling of surface waters and the lower atmosphere in this region. Second, several temporary global cooling influences have come into play including unusually weak solar activity (Box 3.1), increased aerosol production, and volcanic activity.

None of these influences is likely to continue over the long term. Moreover, despite the slowdown in warming at the surface, there have been continuing increases in heat extremes and in the heat content of the oceans, as well as rising sea levels, shrinking Arctic sea-ice, and ongoing melt of ice sheets and glaciers. Some models predict that, when the current slowdown ends, renewed warming will be rapid. . Models? What are these " Models" based on? Computer models of course, which will produce exactly what's imputed.

Source......Australian Academy of Science.

 

[untermensche]

Again you and others here are failing to point to any prediction ever made about some catastrophic event caused by globa........oops, sorry.........I mean " climate change " that's eventuated! Predictions of 1.5 -2 degree rise in the next 20 -30 years made decades ago were way off the mark. Who's responsible for publishing this rubbish but extremists and alarmists who have taken to this nonsense like evangelical fundamentalists take to religion!

Even the very left leaning ABC broadcasting network here in Australia acknowledges temperatures have only risen 0.8 of a degree in the last 130 years despite massive increases in carbon emissions during that period, and remember, the Earth is still coming out of the Little Ice Age.

Bullshit.

Sagan predicted temperatures would rise higher than normal in the near future.

In the near future temperatures were record highs year after year.

He predicted we would see more powerful storms and we see it.

Year after year.

To say what is starting to happen now was not predicted is just a lie.

What would support your side would be for average temperatures to drop to what they were in the 80's.

But average temperatures higher than the temperatures in the 80's year after year proves Sagan was right.

View attachment 19227

Sagan says in the early 80's that soon average temperatures will rise abnormally.

You say it is a coincidence they do.

Nobody but an idiot would buy your coincidence bullshit.

Carl Sagan was an astronomer and author. He never claimed to be an expert on climate. He was also an excellent SF writer. I enjoyed immensely his SF book " Contact."

I'm positive that were he still alive today he would expose all these extremists for what they are.........leeches and pseudoscience fraudsters.

He was a scientist who understood what other scientists were saying and why they were saying it.

And he was right. And the scientists at the time were right.

He predicted that in near future temperatures would begin to rise abnormally. Based on the addition of man-made emissions in the models.

He also predicted that seas levels would rise and that intensity of storms would increase. This is years before these trends are visible.

It was a prediction in the early 80's and it hadn't happened yet and there was no reason unless you knew the science to think it was going to happen.

And your ilk said that people like Sagan were just doomsayers.

Your ilk, unlike Sagan, that are not scientists and don't know the science.

 

[barbos]

According to most estimates, the rate of average surface warming has slowed since 2001, despite ongoing rises in greenhouse gases. This slowdown is consistent with known climate variability.

Well, since according to you it is consistent with variability, it must have low significance. In other words you can't use it to claim that warming slowed down.

 

[repoman]

Scientist on volcanoes and carbon dioxide

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vhp/gas_climate.html

 

[Underseer]

Again you and others here are failing to point to any prediction ever made about some catastrophic event caused by globa........oops, sorry.........I mean " climate change " that's eventuated! Predictions of 1.5 -2 degree rise in the next 20 -30 years made decades ago were way off the mark. Who's responsible for publishing this rubbish but extremists and alarmists who have taken to this nonsense like evangelical fundamentalists take to religion!

Even the very left leaning ABC broadcasting network here in Australia acknowledges temperatures have only risen 0.8 of a degree in the last 130 years despite massive increases in carbon emissions during that period, and remember, the Earth is still coming out of the Little Ice Age.

Bullshit.

Sagan predicted temperatures would rise higher than normal in the near future.

In the near future temperatures were record highs year after year.

He predicted we would see more powerful storms and we see it.

Year after year.

To say what is starting to happen now was not predicted is just a lie.

What would support your side would be for average temperatures to drop to what they were in the 80's.

But average temperatures higher than the temperatures in the 80's year after year proves Sagan was right.

View attachment 19227

Sagan says in the early 80's that soon average temperatures will rise abnormally.

You say it is a coincidence they do.

Nobody but an idiot would buy your coincidence bullshit.

Carl Sagan was an astronomer and author. He never claimed to be an expert on climate. He was also an excellent SF writer. I enjoyed immensely his SF book " Contact."

I'm positive that were he still alive today he would expose all these extremists for what they are.........leeches and pseudoscience fraudsters.

The majority of scientists from the relevant field are "leeches and pseudoscience fraudsters"?

Great!

This is an amazing opportunity for you! The person who proves everyone wrong gets their names in the history books and wins all the prizes.

All you have to do is

• Use your obviously superior understanding of climatology to produce a climate model that makes more accurate predictions than the currently accepted climate model (which you say is so awful it is pseudoscience, so this should be easy for a great scientific expert such as yourself).
• Publish your findings in a reputable journal. Make all the calculations clear and make all the data you used available to others on the Internet.
• Present your paper at a science conference so that you can be cross-examined by experts

It took Darwin years to persuade people because folks were ideologically bound to the conclusion of creationism, but the magical thing about science is that when the facts are behind you and you are persistent, you can persuade everyone to your point of view.

But only if the facts actually are behind you.

Since you are a greater expert in climatology than all those published scientists with PhDs, this will be super easy for you!

Of course, if the facts aren't behind you, then you can't do any of the above. In fact, it's possible that you're not the greatest expert in climatology on the planet and that you are in fact refusing to do any of the above because you're just another pseudoscience kook on the Internet trying to make scientific claims without having done any of the, well, science part.

You want everyone to accept your conclusions without having proved your conclusions in the normal way science goes about these things.

Just like every other anti-science kook from creationists to anti-vaccine nuts, to people who believe that the world is flat. You're no different.

You want to bypass the normal mechanism for establishing claims in science and you just want everyone to arbitrarily decide that you're a greater expert than the actual experts simply because you read a web page or watched a segment on FOX News, or read a book by another partisan political anti-science kook, or whatever it is that you think makes you a greater expert than the experts. It's always something with anti-science kooks, isn't it?

Show.

Us.

Your.

Climate.

Model.

I'm not asking for much from someone claiming to be a greater expert than the experts. Surely, listening to right wing radio has made you enough of an expert to produce a climate model that makes better predictions, right?

 

[Tammuz]

If I'm not mistaken, Carl Sagan warned about global warming already during his lifetime. Since the years he passed away, the evidence if anything is even stronger. So to claim Sagan for climate change denialism seems very ill-advised.

Almost like that guy who claimed that Sagan considered the evidence for reincarnation to be overwhelming. NOT! NOT!

 

[angelo]

Yet the facts keep getting in the way of a good yarn!

https://jennifermarohasy.com/2014/10/opera-house-still-above-sea-level-despite-homogenisation/