New report on climate change released today

[barbos]

Records are made to be broken.

When records are broken every year they are called trends.

 

[angelo]

Yet people living in the Western World's lifespans keep on increasing!

You are SO full of shit. Buy yourself an elementary education, dude.

Life Expectancy Continues to Decline

You can't even get simple undisputed facts right - why should anyone believe your parroted right wing climate change denial?

It's declining only in the worlds shitholes. In Western democratic modern nations it's never been higher.

http://www.geoba.se/population.php?pc=world&type=015&year=2019&st=rank&asde=&page=1

 

[angelo]

Records are made to be broken.

When records are broken every year they are called trends.

Highest temperatures ever recorded
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the highest temperature ever recorded was 56.7 °C (134.1 °F) on 10 July 1913 in Furnace Creek (Greenland Ranch), California, United States.

 

[barbos]

Records are made to be broken.

When records are broken every year they are called trends.

Highest temperatures ever recorded
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the highest temperature ever recorded was 56.7 °C (134.1 °F) on 10 July 1913 in Furnace Creek (Greenland Ranch), California, United States.

Cool. What's your point?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Records are made to be broken.

When records are broken every year they are called trends.

Highest temperatures ever recorded
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the highest temperature ever recorded was 56.7 °C (134.1 °F) on 10 July 1913 in Furnace Creek (Greenland Ranch), California, United States.

The ignorance is strong enough to generate electricity. You cited a single day. We've been having records for periods of a month or year. The significance would be immediate to anyone that wasn't blinded by ridiculous insanity.

 

[scombrid]

This is some local data that I have been looking at. This is a frequency distribution of the daily minimum temperature for every day in July at the weather station nearest to our house. I plotted 1901 to 1996 and 1997 through 2018. You can do the same plot for any month June through October and it looks the same. You can also take the data from all the other east coast FL stations and get the same result. Our local climate has changed. I can tell you that so far this month it has not been below 74 F at Titusville. There is a paper in the Journal of American Meteorological Association that looked at climate trends in the southeastern US (Texas to Oklahoma east to Virginia down through Florida). It found that overnight lows have gone up a lot in the summer months and the days with really heavy rain have increased dramatically except for along the immediate east coast where we have been having increasing long rain-free stretches in summer. The Bermuda-Azores high has been persistently deeper and slightly further west which has driven a persistent shift in summer climate patterns.

 

[scombrid]

Here is a time series from the same dataset. You can see normal inter-annual variation over the years with an oscillation associated with AMO. It is like somebody flipped a switch round about 1996 or 1997. Cold fronts just stopped reaching the FL Peninsula summer. They used get just about to central FL and then wash out. Now they wash out a little further north so instead of having summer weather dominated by the subtropical ridge 80% of the summer, it is parked over us 100% of the time. I haven't dug into the data enough to see what was going on in 1947 and 1945.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Yet people living in the Western World's lifespans keep on increasing!

You are SO full of shit. Buy yourself an elementary education, dude.

Life Expectancy Continues to Decline

You can't even get simple undisputed facts right - why should anyone believe your parroted right wing climate change denial?

It's declining only in the worlds shitholes. In Western democratic modern nations it's never been higher.

http://www.geoba.se/population.php?pc=world&type=015&year=2019&st=rank&asde=&page=1

Oh, so you think America is a shithole? The article you obviously didn't read is talking about America.

 

[bilby]

Never mind the new report; What was the scientific consensus before all the lobbyists and interest groups got involved?

How well did the predictions made by climate scientists in the 1970s pan out?

https://theconversation.com/40-years-ago-scientists-predicted-climate-change-and-hey-they-were-right-120502

The Report lays out clearly what was known about the likely effects of increasing carbon dioxide on the climate, as well as the uncertainties. The main conclusion of the Report was direct:

We estimate the most probable warming for a doubling of CO₂ to be near 3℃ with a probable error of 1.5℃.​

In the 40 years since their meeting, the annual average CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere, as measured at Mauna Loa in Hawaii, has increased by about 21%. Over the same period, global average surface temperature has increased by about 0.66℃, almost exactly what could have been expected if a doubling of CO₂ produces about 2.5℃ warming – just a bit below their best estimate. A remarkably prescient prediction.

The science isn't 'settled' - it was never unsettled. CO₂ emissions leading to global warming, and thereby causing climate to change, was always understood by atmospheric physicists - ever since atmospheric physics became a ting back in the nineteenth century. This is a new problem (because only recently have we been burning fossil fuel at such a stupendous rate); But it's not a new phenomenon.

 

[angelo]

It's declining only in the worlds shitholes. In Western democratic modern nations it's never been higher.

http://www.geoba.se/population.php?pc=world&type=015&year=2019&st=rank&asde=&page=1

Oh, so you think America is a shithole? The article you obviously didn't read is talking about America.

The decline in life expectancy has FA to do with GW/CC/CD as is insinuated!

CDC Data Show U.S. Life Expectancy Continues to Decline
Suicides, Drug Overdose Deaths Named as Key Contributors
December 10, 2018 04:02 pm Michael Devitt – A century ago, the average life expectancy in the United States was just 39 years.(budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu) Admittedly, that figure is something of an outlier, given the deadly influenza pandemic that raged that year, killing an estimated 50 million people or more around the globe,(www.cdc.gov) including some 675,000 Americans. The years immediately before and after the so-called Spanish flu wreaked havoc worldwide saw life expectancies of 51 and 55 years, respectively.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It's declining only in the worlds shitholes. In Western democratic modern nations it's never been higher.

http://www.geoba.se/population.php?pc=world&type=015&year=2019&st=rank&asde=&page=1

Oh, so you think America is a shithole? The article you obviously didn't read is talking about America.

The decline in life expectancy has FA to do with GW/CC/CD as is insinuated!

CDC Data Show U.S. Life Expectancy Continues to Decline
Suicides, Drug Overdose Deaths Named as Key Contributors
December 10, 2018 04:02 pm Michael Devitt – A century ago, the average life expectancy in the United States was just 39 years.(budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu) Admittedly, that figure is something of an outlier, given the deadly influenza pandemic that raged that year, killing an estimated 50 million people or more around the globe,(www.cdc.gov) including some 675,000 Americans. The years immediately before and after the so-called Spanish flu wreaked havoc worldwide saw life expectancies of 51 and 55 years, respectively.

Your post didn't specify reasons, just that our life expectancy is higher than ever and that it's only declining in shitholes. While you're at least mostly right that it's due to drugs that in no way exonerates your post.

 

[angelo]

The decline in life expectancy has FA to do with GW/CC/CD as is insinuated!

CDC Data Show U.S. Life Expectancy Continues to Decline
Suicides, Drug Overdose Deaths Named as Key Contributors
December 10, 2018 04:02 pm Michael Devitt – A century ago, the average life expectancy in the United States was just 39 years.(budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu) Admittedly, that figure is something of an outlier, given the deadly influenza pandemic that raged that year, killing an estimated 50 million people or more around the globe,(www.cdc.gov) including some 675,000 Americans. The years immediately before and after the so-called Spanish flu wreaked havoc worldwide saw life expectancies of 51 and 55 years, respectively.

Your post didn't specify reasons, just that our life expectancy is higher than ever and that it's only declining in shitholes. While you're at least mostly right that it's due to drugs that in no way exonerates your post.

There's not a shred of evidence, not one anywhere on the planet that GW/CC/CD is causing a decline in life expectancy, or is it ever likely to!

 

[bilby]

The decline in life expectancy has FA to do with GW/CC/CD as is insinuated!

CDC Data Show U.S. Life Expectancy Continues to Decline
Suicides, Drug Overdose Deaths Named as Key Contributors
December 10, 2018 04:02 pm Michael Devitt – A century ago, the average life expectancy in the United States was just 39 years.(budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu) Admittedly, that figure is something of an outlier, given the deadly influenza pandemic that raged that year, killing an estimated 50 million people or more around the globe,(www.cdc.gov) including some 675,000 Americans. The years immediately before and after the so-called Spanish flu wreaked havoc worldwide saw life expectancies of 51 and 55 years, respectively.

Your post didn't specify reasons, just that our life expectancy is higher than ever and that it's only declining in shitholes. While you're at least mostly right that it's due to drugs that in no way exonerates your post.

There's not a shred of evidence, not one anywhere on the planet that GW/CC/CD is causing a decline in life expectancy, or is it ever likely to!

This is the Motte and Bailey fallacy.

You made a claim. When challenged on its accuracy, you retreated to a different (defensible) claim, rather than admit defeat.

The claim you made was:

Yet people living in the Western World's lifespans keep on increasing!

... and the appropriate response from an honest person when shown that this is false would be to admit that you were wrong.

Instead you shifted to the different (and less easily disproven) claim that there's no evidence that the decline in life expectancy has climate change as a cause.

That might impress the foolish partisan mouth-breathers on denialist websites, but around here it just makes you look shifty, unreliable and untrustworthy. If you refuse to acknowledge, admit, and (most importantly) discard those claims that are demonstrated to be false, then why would anyone take seriously any future claims you make?

... philosopher Nicholas Shackel coined the term “motte-and-bailey” to describe the rhetorical strategy in which a debater retreats to an uncontroversial claim when challenged on a controversial one. The structure goes something like this:

First, someone makes a controversial statement from what blogger Ash Navabi calls the “courtyard of ideas.” Then when that statement, the bailey, is attacked, the speaker retreats to the motte, the place of “strict terms and/or rigorous reasoning”—falsely claiming that she was just making an obvious, uncontroversial point, one that could not possibly be challenged by any right-minded individual. Finally, when the argument has ended, she will go back to making those same controversial statements—the argumentative bailey, having successfully fended off all attackers. The point is to defend a controversial idea by systematically conflating it with a less easily-assailable one.

(Source)

 

[George S]

[According to] Antonio Gasparrini of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

The study — published in the British journal The Lancet — analyzed data on more than 74 million deaths in 13 countries between 1985 and 2012. Of those, 5.4 million deaths were related to cold, while 311,000 were related to heat.

Because the study included countries under different socio-economic backgrounds and with varying climates, it was representative of temperature-related deaths worldwide, the study said. The sharp distinction between heat- and cold-related deaths is because low temperatures cause more problems for the body's cardiovascular and respiratory systems, it added.

Warming would not be catastrophic even if it were occurring.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

[According to] Antonio Gasparrini of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

The study — published in the British journal The Lancet — analyzed data on more than 74 million deaths in 13 countries between 1985 and 2012. Of those, 5.4 million deaths were related to cold, while 311,000 were related to heat.

Because the study included countries under different socio-economic backgrounds and with varying climates, it was representative of temperature-related deaths worldwide, the study said. The sharp distinction between heat- and cold-related deaths is because low temperatures cause more problems for the body's cardiovascular and respiratory systems, it added.

Warming would not be catastrophic even if it were occurring.

Feels like a twister remembering where on the anti-GW wheel they are. Right now George S is back to ‘it isn’t warming’.

 

[bilby]

[According to] Antonio Gasparrini of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

The study — published in the British journal The Lancet — analyzed data on more than 74 million deaths in 13 countries between 1985 and 2012. Of those, 5.4 million deaths were related to cold, while 311,000 were related to heat.

Because the study included countries under different socio-economic backgrounds and with varying climates, it was representative of temperature-related deaths worldwide, the study said. The sharp distinction between heat- and cold-related deaths is because low temperatures cause more problems for the body's cardiovascular and respiratory systems, it added.

Warming would not be catastrophic even if it were occurring.

Yes, it would. And it is.

Deaths directly attributed to heat are far from the only catastrophic consequences of global warming.

Your datum is a complete non-sequitur.

When a person is killed by an unusually powerful or unusually located hurricane; Or his city, or farm, or (in the case of many Pacific Islands) his entire nation, is swallowed by rising ocean levels; Or the crop he depends upon fails due to monsoon rains not arriving, causing his family to starve; Or his home and family are washed away by floods because the monsoon rains fell on his city, instead of in the farming areas that desperately needed them; Or when any other climate related tragedy befalls him, he is unlikely to choose as his dying words "At least I haven't got heatstroke".

 

[angelo]

There's not a shred of evidence, not one anywhere on the planet that GW/CC/CD is causing a decline in life expectancy, or is it ever likely to!

This is the Motte and Bailey fallacy.

You made a claim. When challenged on its accuracy, you retreated to a different (defensible) claim, rather than admit defeat.

The claim you made was:

Yet people living in the Western World's lifespans keep on increasing!

... and the appropriate response from an honest person when shown that this is false would be to admit that you were wrong.

Instead you shifted to the different (and less easily disproven) claim that there's no evidence that the decline in life expectancy has climate change as a cause.

That might impress the foolish partisan mouth-breathers on denialist websites, but around here it just makes you look shifty, unreliable and untrustworthy. If you refuse to acknowledge, admit, and (most importantly) discard those claims that are demonstrated to be false, then why would anyone take seriously any future claims you make?

... philosopher Nicholas Shackel coined the term “motte-and-bailey” to describe the rhetorical strategy in which a debater retreats to an uncontroversial claim when challenged on a controversial one. The structure goes something like this:

First, someone makes a controversial statement from what blogger Ash Navabi calls the “courtyard of ideas.” Then when that statement, the bailey, is attacked, the speaker retreats to the motte, the place of “strict terms and/or rigorous reasoning”—falsely claiming that she was just making an obvious, uncontroversial point, one that could not possibly be challenged by any right-minded individual. Finally, when the argument has ended, she will go back to making those same controversial statements—the argumentative bailey, having successfully fended off all attackers. The point is to defend a controversial idea by systematically conflating it with a less easily-assailable one.

(Source)

Bullshit and you know it! The claim that life expectancy [ in the West anyway] is in decline is pure unadulterated bunkum! Remove the drug related deaths and suicides which in some places is at record levels and any decline is immediately explained. And it's not, oe ever likely to be GW/CC/CD!

 

[Loren Pechtel]

There's not a shred of evidence, not one anywhere on the planet that GW/CC/CD is causing a decline in life expectancy, or is it ever likely to!

But you simply asserted a higher life expectancy, you didn't put any conditions on it.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

[According to] Antonio Gasparrini of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

The study — published in the British journal The Lancet — analyzed data on more than 74 million deaths in 13 countries between 1985 and 2012. Of those, 5.4 million deaths were related to cold, while 311,000 were related to heat.

Because the study included countries under different socio-economic backgrounds and with varying climates, it was representative of temperature-related deaths worldwide, the study said. The sharp distinction between heat- and cold-related deaths is because low temperatures cause more problems for the body's cardiovascular and respiratory systems, it added.

Warming would not be catastrophic even if it were occurring.

The biggest threat of warming is to food production.

 

[southernhybrid]

Europe's climate change related heat wave will likely impact the Arctic soon.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/new-heatwave-hits-europe

The heatwave was caused by warm air coming up from North Africa and Spain. According to forecasts, the atmospheric flow will transport the heat towards Greenland, resulting in high temperatures and consequently enhanced melting. Persistent high melt and runoff the last few weeks but season total running just below 2012 record high loss, according to climate scientists with the Danish Meteorological Institute. This will also impact Arctic sea ice, which where the loss of ice extent through the first half of July matched loss rates observed in 2012, the year which had the lowest September sea ice extent in the satellite record, according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Center.

“Such intense and widespread heatwaves carry the signature of man-made climate change. This is consistent with the scientific finding showing evidence of more frequent, drawn out and intense heat events as greenhouse gas concentrations lead to a rise in global temperatures,” according to Johannes Cullmann, Director of WMO’s Climate and Water Department.

“WMO expects that 2019 will be in the five top warmest years on record, and that 2015-2019 is to be the warmest of any equivalent five-year period on record,” he said. WMO will submit a five year report on the state of the climate 2015-2019 to the UN Climate Action Summit in September.

Many scientific studies have been conducted on the links between climate change and heatwaves.

"Every heatwave occurring in Europe today is made more likely and more intense by human-induced climate change," said a study published by scientists at World Weather Attribution on the Human contribution to record-breaking June 2019 heatwave in France.
"The observations show a very large increase in the temperature of these heatwaves. Currently such an event is estimated to occur with a return period of 30 years, but similarly frequent heatwaves would have likely been about 4 ºC cooler a century ago. In other words, a heatwave that intense is occurring at least 10 times more frequently today than a century ago," it said.

I see no need to argue about the facts, but then again there are people who still believe the earth is flat. I don't argue with them either. They aren't going to let facts get in the way of their preconceived nonsensical notions.