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On Deck: 2022

Democratic House majority threatened by retirements - The Washington Post
The latest to announce her departure is Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), the former head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, who proclaimed her coming retirement Friday after narrowly winning reelection in a rural district along the Mississippi River that supported former president Donald Trump.

Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.), who has been exploring another possible gubernatorial run, put out word Saturday that he would be making a “major announcement” this week, potentially putting at risk his St. Petersburg seat, where he ran ahead of President Biden in 2020.

Two other accomplished battleground incumbents — Reps. Filemon Vela Jr. (D-Tex.) and Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.) — announced their plans to leave earlier this year, joining Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), who is giving up a closely contested seat to run for the U.S. Senate. Several more in competitive areas, including Democratic stars like Reps. Conor Lamb (Pa.) and Stephanie Murphy (Fla.) are also seriously considering runs for higher office later this year.
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Val Demings to run for Senate against Rubio - POLITICO
Florida Rep. Val Demings is planning to run for the U.S. Senate, rather than governor, providing Democrats with a big-name candidate to take on Republican Sen. Marco Rubio next year.

For months, Demings mulled which statewide office to pursue, but decided she could do the most good by taking on the two-term senator, according to several Democrats familiar with her thinking.

...
A top adviser to Demings compared her personal biography to Rubio this way: “She’s the daughter of a maid and a janitor who became the first Black woman police chief in Orlando. He’s the son of a maid and a bartender who’s a career politician.”

The adviser said that Demings, who has grown increasingly critical of GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis, ultimately became more frustrated with Senate Republicans under Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and their “obstruction.”

“If I had to point to one thing, I think it's the Covid bill and the way Republicans voted against it for no good reason,” the adviser said. “That really helped push her over the edge. She also had this huge fight with [Ohio Republican Rep.] Jim Jordan and it brought that into focus. This fight is in Washington and it’s the right fight for her to continue.”
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That will be interesting to see.
 
Republicans to reportedly shift focus off Biden as they prepare for midterms
noting
‘Biden is not a good bad guy’: GOP rips up midterm playbook - POLITICO
Interviews with more than 25 GOP strategists and party officials depict a president whose avuncular style and genial bearing make him a less-than-ideal foil. He doesn’t induce anger or rage, and at the moment, his White House is relatively drama-free.

In response, Republicans are preparing to break with time-honored custom and cast the president less as the central character in the midterm elections than as an accessory to the broader excesses of the left.
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So Biden is like Ronald Reagan? RR got called the Teflon President because nothing would stick to him.
Now, however, Republicans are gearing up to run against everything from “defund the police” to socialism and cancel culture. They’ll hit Biden on gun control, spending and immigration. And if the economy stalls, they’ll whack him for that, too. But the emphasis will be less on Biden personally than it was on either Obama or Trump, the Republican strategists and party officials say.
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Instead, they will demonize Congressional Democrats, like Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Maxine Waters, AOC, Rashida Tlaib, and Bernie Sanders.
“Because [Biden] is so boring, he’s not as scandalous,” said John Thomas, a Republican strategist who works on House campaigns across the country.

Though Biden “certainly is relevant” as the head of the party in power, Thomas said, “there are bigger bogeymen … We don’t need him as our No. 1 foil.”
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So they find him hard to attack because he's boring? But on the positive side, that means that he is much like "No Drama Obama".
 
House seat NM-01 was vacated by Deb Haaland when she joined the Biden Admin as Sec'y of the Interior.

Democrat Melanie Stansbury wins special election for New Mexico House seat - CBS News
While the margin is still being counted, Stansbury is leading Republican nominee Mark Moores by just under 30 points with more than 70% of the vote in.

...
Still, after a special election in Texas' 6th shut out any Democratic candidates, national groups are holding nothing back in this race.

Stansbury, a state representative who beat a 7-term Republican for her seat, received more than $231,687 from Congressional members and outside groups between April and mid-May. Another $23,300 came in on Sunday.

By comparison, Moores, who has served in the state legislature since 2013, received $43,251 between April and mid-May.
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New Mexico House Special Election Results, June 2021 | Voting by District
New Mexico Special Election Results: First Congressional District - The New York Times
New Mexico's 1st Congressional District - Ballotpedia
(numbers: NYT/Politico)
  • Melanie Stansbury (D) 60.3%
  • Mark Moores (R) 35.7%
  • Aubrey Dunn (I) 2.7%
  • Christopher Manning (L) 1.3%
I = Independent, L = Libertarian

Victory margins (winning candidate, D - R):
[table="class:grid"]
[tr][td]2021[/td][td]Melanie Stansbury[/td][td]24.6[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]2020[/td][td]Deb Haaland[/td][td]16.4[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]2018[/td][td]Deb Haaland[/td][td]22.8[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]2016[/td][td]Michelle Lujan Grisham[/td][td]30.2[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]2014[/td][td]Michelle Lujan Grisham[/td][td]17.4[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]2012[/td][td]Michelle Lujan Grisham[/td][td]18.3[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]2010[/td][td]Martin Heinrich[/td][td]3.6[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]2008[/td][td]Martin Heinrich[/td][td]11.4[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]2006[/td][td]Heather Wilson (R)[/td][td]-0.4[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]2004[/td][td]Heather Wilson (R)[/td][td]-8.9[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]2002[/td][td]Heather Wilson (R)[/td][td]-10.6[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]2000[/td][td]Heather Wilson (R)[/td][td]-7.0[/td][/tr]
[/table]
HW was the incumbent in 2000
 
Using DH's original 2018 election as a benchmark, 2020 had -6.4 and 2021 +1.8

The 2020 Trump bump was real, and it was across the entire ballot, from the Presidency to Congress and to state offices. For the Presidency and Congress, I found that from 538's predictions.

To get an idea of how strong the candidates were, I checked on how well they did in the primaries.
  • 2021: (party convention) ASL 37.2, MS 21.6, 17.1, 9.0, 6.5, 6.5, 1.0, 0.5. 0.5 then MS 51.2, ASL 48.3
  • 2020: DH was unopposed
  • 2018: DH 40.6, 25.8, ASL 20.6, 5.9, 3.8, 3.3
DH = Deb Haaland, ASL = Antoinette Sedillo Lopez, MS = Melanie Stansbury
 
Here are the QAnon supporters running for Congress in 2022 | Media Matters for America
"The QAnon conspiracy theory was linked to the Capitol insurrection. Here are 19 congressional candidates who have embraced it."

  1. AZ-06 - Josh Barnett - prev
  2. AZ-03 - Daniel Wood - prev
  3. CA-35 - Mike Cargile - prev
  4. CO-03 - Lauren Boebert - inc
  5. FL-14 - Christine Quinn - prev
  6. FL-11 - Anthony Sabatini - state inc
  7. FL-SEN - Reba Sherrill - prev
  8. FL-24 - Lavern Spicer - prev
  9. FL-22 - Darlene Swaffar - prev
  10. GA-14 - Marjorie Taylor Greene - inc
  11. MD-SEN - Jon McGreevey
  12. NV-04 - Sam Peters - prev
  13. NV-03 - Mindy Robinson - prev
  14. NJ-03 - Tricia Flanagan - prev
  15. OH-09 - J.R. Majewski
  16. OH-SEN - Mark Pukita
  17. OR-SEN - Jo Rae Perkins - prev
  18. PA-SEN - Bobby Jeffries - prev
  19. TX-34 - Mayra Flores
inc = incumbent, prev = previous unsuccessful run, state inc = state-office incumbent
 
Melanie🇺🇸 on Twitter: "2022 candidates most running against seditious GOP and several others who need to go! ..." / Twitter
2022 candidates most running against seditious GOP and several others who need to go!

Vet, retweet them, follow, volunteer and donate! These are our best shot to hold not congress, we should be able to defeat sedition! $2 to what you can afford, if we ALL chip in it will help!
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Here is her list of candidates:

@joangreeneaz vs @RepAndyBiggsAZ House AZ
@BrunoAmato_1 vs @GOPLeader McCarthy House CA
@EricG1247 vs @DevinNunes House CA
@LourinHubbard vs @RepDevinNunes CA House
@RepHoulahan vs @DarrellIssa House CA
@KerryDonovanCO vs @laurenboebert House CO
@JesseP4Congress vs @RepFranklin House FL
@AllenLEllison vs @marcorubio Senate FL
@Holly_4Congress vs @mtgreenee GA
@Marcus4Georgia vs @mtgreenee House GA
@ReverendWarnock vs @sendavidperdue Senate GA
@Booker4KY vs @RandPaul Senate KY
@JoshRemillardNC vs @CawthornforNC House NC
@RaleighBowman vs @RepCawthorn House NC
@ava_unity vs @RepMarkWalker Senate NC
@JeffJacksonNC vs @RepMarkWalker Senate NC
@talexander_NJ02 vs @JeffVanDrew House NJ
@MelanieforNM vs ? Election 6/21 House NM
@Britt4Congress vs @NMalliotakis House NY
@Sites4Congress vs @Jim_Jordan House OH
@RepTimRyan vs ? Senate OH
@JohnFetterman vs Vacant Senate PA
@kmforsenate vs @SenatorTimScott Senate SC
@ShawnLassiterTX vs @ronforcongress Elect 5/21 House TX
@thejanasanchez vs ? TX special election 6/21
@AllenBGlines vs @MikeLeeUtah Senate UT
@AustinTSearle vs @MikeLeeUtah Senate UT
@AlexLasryWI vs @RonJohnsonWI Senate WI
@NelsonforWI vs @RonJohnsonWI Senate WI

Some of them are close, but some are long shorts, like MTG's district, GA-14.
 
Here are the QAnon supporters running for Congress in 2022 | Media Matters for America

At last count, 33.
  • Seven are from Florida, five are from California, two each are from Arizona, Nevada, New Jersey, Texas, Illinois, and Ohio, and there is one each from Maryland, Rhode Island, Oregon, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Colorado.
  • One of the candidates, in Florida, is running for a special congressional election being held in January 2022.
  • Thirty-one are Republicans, one is an independent, and one is deciding whether to run as a Republican or an independent.
  • Twenty-seven previously ran for Congress in 2020. Two previously ran for a state legislative seat in 2020.
  • Two, from Colorado and Georgia, are incumbents in Congress. One, from Florida, is an incumbent state legislator.
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Trump getting tougher for Senate GOP to ignore | TheHill
Senate Republican leaders have tried to put former President Trump in the rearview mirror, rarely mentioning his name and keeping focused instead on the Democratic agenda, but Trump’s iron grip on the party’s grassroots is making it tougher and tougher to keep ignoring him.

Mainstream Republicans are getting increasingly caught up in the party’s internal battle over Trump’s legacy, with even stalwart conservatives such as Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) getting called out as insufficiently loyal to Trump or “Republicans in name only.”
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They blew two chances to give Trump a huge career setback, by letting him off the hook both times that he was impeached. By not supporting a Jan. 6 commission, they arguably blew a third one.
Trump on Monday warned that Republican candidates who don’t publicly embrace him are setting themselves up for failure in the next election.

“Four years ago, a man named Ed Gillespie ran for Governor of Virginia without ‘embracing’ MAGA, or the America First movement. He tried to skirt the issue by wanting my endorsement, yet walking on both sides of the fence. The Trump base is very large in Virginia, they understood his game, and they didn’t come out for Gillespie, nor did I do anything to help or hurt. He got creamed!" Trump said in a statement through his PAC.
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He calls them RINO's, Republicans In Name Only, a name that suggests a rhinoceros, a sort of fake elephant.

He has gotten involved in some Senate races, like endorsing primary challenger Kelly Tshibaka for Sen. Lisa Murkowski R-AK. He also opposes Katie Britt's challenge to Sen. Mo Brooks R-AL. She is a former chief of staff for retiring Sen. Richard Shelby R-AL, a Senator that Trump dismisses as a RINO.

Though Trump likes Sen. John Boozman R-AR, running against him is former football player Jake Bequette, someone who presents himself as “a true conservative who will advance the Trump conservative agenda.” “He’s been in Washington for over 20 years. He’s going on his third decade in Washington, in the swamp,” he recently said.

Sen. James Lankford R-OK has a primary challenger who is supported by the head of his state's Republican Party, Jackson Lahmeyer, a 29-year-old pastor from Tulsa. He thinks that Trump ought to be reinstated as President and he thinks that that would happen if battleground states followed Arizona and audited their election results.

That party will vote on censuring the state's two Senators for not objecting to the certification of the electoral vote.

Running for the Senate in Ohio is J.D. Vance, author of "Hillbilly Elegy". He recently deleted a large number of his tweets that were very critical of Trump. “I regret them and I regret being wrong about the guy.” He was “a flip-flop-flipper on Trump” and he needs “to just suck it up and support him.”

From the article,
Many Republicans, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Rick Scott (R-Fla.), have traveled to Trump’s Palm Beach, Fla., resort to make a show of their allegiance and deference to the former president.

But McConnell, Thune and other senior members of the Senate GOP leadership have opted not to do that.
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Even so, they blew two opportunities to support some faithful apparatchik for the Presidency.
 
Grassley Will Run for 8th Term in Senate - The New York Times
notes
Grassley Works on Twitter: "It’s 4 a.m. in Iowa so I’m running. I do that 6 days a week. Before I start the day I want you to know what Barbara and I have decided.

I’m running for re-election—a lot more to do, for Iowa. We ask and will work for your support. Will you join us? #GrassleyRuns #GrassleyWorks (link)" / Twitter
He is now 88, and he would be 95 at the end of a 9th Senate term for him.
In a separate release, Mr. Grassley, first elected to public office as a state legislator in 1958, said that Iowans had encouraged him to run for re-election as he toured the state in recent months.

I’m working as hard as ever for the people of Iowa and there’s more work to do,” he said in a statement. “In a time of crisis and polarization, Iowa needs strong, effective leadership.”
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This will head off a primary challenge to replace him.

Abby Finkenauer will be running against him.
Ms. Finkenauer quickly sought to use Mr. Grassley’s long history in Washington against him.

“After 47 years in Washington, D.C., Chuck Grassley has changed from an Iowa farmer to just another coastal elite,” she said in a statement. “Over his nearly five decades in Congress, Iowa has lost over 30,000 family farms, our jobs have been shipped overseas and decade after decade our rural communities have been hollowed out with our young people leaving in droves as he stood on the sideline.”
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She was elected to the House in 2018, but got defeated in 2020.
Senate Republicans are still awaiting decisions from other incumbents on whether they intend to run, including John Thune of South Dakota, the No. 2 Republican, and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who would be a key target of Democrats if he does seek re-election.
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United States Congress elections, 2022 - Ballotpedia - lists who will be retiring and who will be running for other offices
 
How Many House Republicans Who Voted To Impeach Trump Will Survive The Midterms? | FiveThirtyEight
Last Thursday, Republican Rep. Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio announced he would not seek reelection in 2022. The 37-year old congressman was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach then-President Donald Trump after the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol, and he is now the first to call it quits.
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Of these 10, 9 have been rebuked by state or local Republican Parties, and 4 of these now have Trump-endorsed primary challengers.

Some of them are in states whose legislatures may cause trouble for them by redistricting: Adam Kinzinger IL-16 and John Katko NY-24.
 
lpetrich said:
How Many House Republicans Who Voted To Impeach Trump Will Survive The Midterms? | FiveThirtyEight
Last Thursday, Republican Rep. Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio announced he would not seek reelection in 2022. The 37-year old congressman was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach then-President Donald Trump after the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol, and he is now the first to call it quits.
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Of these 10, 9 have been rebuked by state or local Republican Parties, and 4 of these now have Trump-endorsed primary challengers.

Some of them are in states whose legislatures may cause trouble for them by redistricting: Adam Kinzinger IL-16 and John Katko NY-24.
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I rather suspect that's why they voted to impeach--they knew they weren't going to be reelected anyway.
 
Trump's spiteful support for Abrams over Kemp sparks midterms fear from Georgia Republicans - CNNPolitics
Donald Trump is escalating his fight against Republican Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia, and state Republicans fear it will give Democrats a stronger foothold in the key swing state as next year's midterm elections loom.

The former President's criticism of Kemp now includes hyping Democrat Stacey Abrams as a preferable alternative to the GOP governor, whose crime against Trump was staying out of his attempt to overturn the Georgia 2020 election returns.

"Having her, I think, might be better than having your existing governor, if you want to know what I think," Trump said Saturday at his rally in Perry, adding later, "Stacey, would you like to take his place? It's OK with me."
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Given what happened to the state's two Senate seats early this year, the Republicans have a lot to fear. Rhetoric about election fraud may also make Republicans reluctant to vote.
The former President is doing his part to try to shape this future in his own image in Georgia. He has endorsed a slate of Republican candidates for statewide office in competitive primaries. Several of these attended his rally in Perry last weekend, including Herschel Walker for US Senate, Burt Jones for lieutenant governor and Jody Hice for secretary of state.

...
But other Republicans in Georgia say demanding total loyalty is a risky proposition for a decidedly purple state that Trump lost in 2020. And the stakes for the GOP are high, with the US Senate race in Georgia potentially determining which party holds the majority after next fall's midterms.
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Adam Kinzinger, outspoken GOP Trump critic, won't seek reelection for US House seat - CNNPolitics
Kinzinger is part of a group of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump during his second impeachment earlier this year and has been a fierce critic of his own party, particularly in calling out misinformation among his colleagues.
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Part of that decision was likely his home state losing a Congressional district, meaning that he would have to compete with another Republican incumbent.
n his announcement video, Kinzinger also suggested the political environment — without saying Republicans or Trump — has "allowed leaders to reach the power selling the false premise that strength comes from degrading others and dehumanizing those that look, act or think differently than we do."

He added: "As a country we've fallen for those lies and now we face a poisoned country filled with outrage, blinding our ability to achieve real strength. It has become increasingly obvious to me that as a country, we must unplug from the mistruth we've been fed."

He also said that because of this, he doesn't plan to try to "focus" on that and running for reelection.

"In Congress, I've witnessed our division is heavily rooted. There's little to no desire to bridge our differences and unity is no longer a word we use," he said in the video. "It has also become increasingly obvious to me that in order to break the narrative, I cannot focus on both a reelection to Congress and a broader fight nationwide."
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Kinzinger announces he won't seek reelection | TheHill
In a video announcing his retirement at the end of his term in January 2023, Kinzinger recalled his first race in which he unseated a Democratic incumbent in 2010, saying he was fueled by supporters who told him to “be my own man and to never ‘do what they tell you to do,’” a tacit reference to his vociferous criticism of Trump.

“I stand tall and proud knowing that I have done just that,” Kinzinger said. “I also remember during that campaign saying that if I ever thought it was time to move on from Congress, I would. And that time is now.”
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Let's see how Trump himself reacts. I don't expect him to be very magnanimous about AK's decision.
 
2022 Senate Elections | Internet Infidels Discussion Board
Can Generation Z Swing The 2022 Elections? | Internet Infidels Discussion Board

Patrick Leahy, longest serving US senator still in office, won't seek reelection - CNNPolitics
Patrick Leahy, a Vermont Democrat and the longest serving US senator still in office, announced Monday he won't seek reelection for a ninth term next year, after serving in the chamber since 1975.

"While I will continue to serve Vermont, Marcelle and I have reached a conclusion: it is time to put down the gavel," said Leahy, referring to his wife. "It is time to pass the torch to the next Vermonter, who'll carry on this work for our great state. It's time to come home."

"I will not run for reelection," he added.
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He's 81 years old, and he is the first and only Democratic Senator from his state. Bernie Sanders is a Democrat-adjacent Independent.
 List of United States senators from Vermont
Anti-Admin / Democratic-Republican, Federalist, National Republican / Whig, Republican

Patrick Leahy has served from 1975 to the present day. The last Republican was Jim Jeffords, first elected in 1989. He became an Independent in 2001, and retired in 2006. Bernie Sanders succeeded him.[/wiki]
 
Top Democratic challenger to controversial Rep. Lauren Boebert ends campaign following Colorado redistricting
  • The top Democratic challenger to Colorado Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert suspended her campaign on Friday.
  • Redistricting in Colorado altered her home district, putting candidate Kerry Donovan outside of Colorado's 3rd Congressional District.
  • Boebert, known for her pro-guns stances, was elected for her first term in 2020.
...
Colorado State Sen. Kerry Donovan suspended her campaign for Boebert's seat in the House of Representatives after she was drawn out of her Colorado district in the redistricting process.

...
Prior to the redistricting, Donovan's race was competitive with Boebert's campaign for reelection. Donovan finished the first quarter of fundraising efforts this year with over $630,000 on the heels of Boebert's $700,000, CPR News reported in April. By June, Boebert surged ahead with over $1.8 million in the second quarter to Donovan's $536,000, the Colorado Sun reported.
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She's now in the 2nd district, Joe Neguse's district.
A candidate is required to live in the state they are running for but not the district, according to House rules. However, candidates from outside of their district can face increased criticism and scrutiny, CBS reported.
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An out-of-district candidate may seem like a carpetbagger.

What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State - Colorado | FiveThirtyEight that district's partisanship changed from R+12 to R+15.
 
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