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On Deck: 2022

ZiprHead

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Nate Silver is now saying the Dems will keep the Senate.
 

lpetrich

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Herschel Walker is turning out to be a total nincompoop. Mehmet Oz and JD Vance aren't much better.
 

Jimmy Higgins

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Dems could gain 4 seats if all goes perfectly. That'd seem like a complete and utter failure of the GOP. A 2 seat gain seems very plausible. How in the heck could the GOP not find someone other than Herschel Walker? The GOP has a history of own goals in Senate races. Walker seemed tainted, things got worse and worse for him, and when he tried to do the Trump 'just say BS' route, it didn't work. The worrisome thing... Warnock is still under 50%. And the undecided have been going hard for the alt-right the last several years. Some of the polls show Walker below 40%, others just a few points back, telling two different stories on his campaign. If Walker wins that race... Georgia should be reburned to the ground.

In Ohio, JD Vance sounded like a crazy right-winger going on about "The Wall" in Internet ads. Now it is crazy right-winger verses flat-gun gun supporting moderate Tim Ryan, who needed to get support between the Rust Belt and Akron to have a career, so that isn't very left-wing territory. Again, polling is too tight and Ryan is well below 50%. Ryan is the perfect Democrat candidate for Ohio. If he can't win, the state has become red.

I think the problem with Mehmet Oz is he doesn't engage any voter base except old people that watch crap like his show. In hindsight, he doesn't appear to excite conservatives, alt-righters, moderates, liberals. He won the primary, but when the general election comes, the only reason to vote for him is because he isn't a Democrat, but he isn't a Trumper or notable Republican either. Polling here clearly shows Oz is in trouble. Fetterman, again, is below 50%, but Oz is below 40%... on average.
 

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In Arizona, the right-wing base has gone full blown authoritarian, well, at least the plurality of it has. And a plurality is all authoritarianism needs at a point.

Kari "All I have done is say 2020 was a Stolen Election" Lake is now leading Robson 11.3k votes, but that is 81% reporting.
Rusty Bowers, who wouldn't say Trump had election stolen from him... forget certify as such lost.
Blake Masters, another Election denier and Trump backed candidate won the GOP Primary to face American Hero Mark Kelly.
Mark Finchem, another Election denier won the GOP Primary for the Sec of State position, which puts him one election victory away from being able to adjust results as necessary.
 

ZiprHead

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Dee Snider is ripping Arizona GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake as a “fascist moron” for quoting a Twisted Sister song and reportedly playing it at her rallies.

A Twitter account describing itself as Lake’s official campaign tweeted out the lyrics to the band’s 1984 hit “We’re Not Gonna Take It” this week.

But the 67-year-old Snider quickly condemned Lake’s campaign for borrowing his tune.

“Hey idiots! Read the 1st line: ‘We’ve got the right to choose!’ This is a PRO-CHOICE anthem you or co-opting. It was NEVER intended for you fascist morons!” Snider wrote to his more than 300,000 Twitter followers.

“As the songwriter and singer I DENOUNCE EVERYTHING [Lake] STANDS FOR!” Snider wrote.

“Write your own damn song!” he said.
 

ZiprHead

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Dick Cheney torches Trump in ad: 'He's a coward'​

In a new campaign ad for his daughter Rep. Liz Cheney, former Vice President Dick Cheney does not mince words about former President Donald Trump, calling him a "coward" and a "threat to our republic."
“In our nation’s 246-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump," Cheney, wearing a cowboy hat and looking directly into the camera, says in the ad. "He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him. He is a coward. A real man wouldn't lie to his supporters."
 

Jimmy Higgins

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4 people died including the person driving the other car. Her vehicle crossed the median, doubt she was driving.

All things said, she sounded like a decent person... who also voted to up end the election in 2020.
 

ZiprHead

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Yup. I bet the other driver had a cell phone in her hand.
 

ZiprHead

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^^^ Oops.

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — Police have changed their description of the crash that killed Indiana Republican U.S. Rep. Jackie Walorski, saying Thursday that it was the SUV in which she was a passenger that crossed a state highway’s centerline and caused the head-on collision.

Walorski and two members of her congressional staff died in the Wednesday afternoon crash in northern Indiana, along with the woman driving the other vehicle, the Elkhart County Sheriff’s Office said.

The department’s initial account was that the car driven by Edith Schmucker, 56, Nappanee, Indiana, crossed into the SUV’s path, but the office released a statement Thursday saying investigators had talked with witnesses and viewed video evidence that their preliminary determination of which direction the vehicles were traveling was incorrect.
 

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It would be so very sweet to see the Democrats gain 4 Senate seats. That would mean Democrats 54, GOP 46. It would mean no longer having to cater to Manchin or Sinema. It would help put a crimp in Moscow Mitch's Grim Reaper act.
 

Derec

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It would be so very sweet to see the Democrats gain 4 Senate seats. That would mean Democrats 54, GOP 46. It would mean no longer having to cater to Manchin or Sinema. It would help put a crimp in Moscow Mitch's Grim Reaper act.

Manchin and Sinema were very important to put a brake on Congressional Dems spending like a drunken sailor.
Spending $3.5T (B3) after spending so much already on COVID packages and on infrastructure would have poured fuel onto the inflation fire.

We would have been much worse off if not for those two.
 

Derec

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Dems could gain 4 seats if all goes perfectly. That'd seem like a complete and utter failure of the GOP. A 2 seat gain seems very plausible. How in the heck could the GOP not find someone other than Herschel Walker?
Herschel Walker is definitely an own goal. Warnock was very much beatable since he is to the left of most of Georgia.

In Ohio, JD Vance sounded like a crazy right-winger going on about "The Wall" in Internet ads.
Forget the wall. The dude wants to ban porn.
 

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Ron Watkins, often suspected of being behind QAnon, was in last place in a Republican primary. He ran for the House in AZ-02, in all but southern and western AZ, and he got 3.5% of the vote, behind all of the six other candidates.

About him and his candidacy: Ron Watkins hopes to move from QAnon to Congress. And he needs Arizona voters to do so.

QAnon's Ron Watkins Loses Arizona Congressional Primary
Watkins first announced his intentions to run last year and was able to secure a spot on the ballot after gaining the state’s required number of petition signatures.

The campaign, which was plagued by fundraising woes and embarrassing moments, failed to garner much support outside of Watkins’ online following.
Unlike Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert.
As the former administrator of the far-right imageboard 8chan, which later became known as 8kun, Watkins has long been suspected of being behind the “Q” persona of QAnon.

The QAnon conspiracy theory alleged that a team of government insiders known collectively as Q was dropping vague and coded hints on 8chan regarding President Donald Trump’s secret battle against a global cabal of child-eating pedophiles comprised of Democrats and Hollywood elites.

Suspected QAnon Creator Ron Watkins Loses Spectacularly in Arizona Republican Primary
 

lpetrich

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Election deniers rack up wins, fueling concerns in both parties | The Hill
Republicans touting former President Trump’s unfounded claims that the 2020 election was stolen saw victories across the map in Tuesday’s primaries, raising questions — and, for many, concerns — about what will happen in November’s general elections.

Democrats, and some Republicans, argue these candidates won’t stand a chance when they face independent voters in November. But others warn not to count them out given President Biden’s low approval ratings and the dismal national mood.
Like Donald Trump winning in 2016.

It would have been much better to support Republicans who are relatively moderate and who are willing to work with Democrats.
In Michigan, Tudor Dixon, who was considered the establishment candidate in the race, won the Republican gubernatorial primary days after she declined to say in a “Fox News Sunday” interview whether the 2020 election was stolen. In May, she — along with almost every other candidate at a debate — raised her hand when asked who among them believed Trump was the rightful 2020 winner in Michigan.

At the same time, Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.), who voted to impeach Trump last year over the Jan. 6, 2021, attack at the U.S. Capitol, was ousted by Trump-backed candidate John Gibbs, who has questioned the 2020 election results.

In Arizona, former television news anchor Kari Lake, who has been one of the most vocal critics of the 2020 election results, appears to be on track to win the gubernatorial primary, while Abe Hamadeh, who has also questioned the election results, is projected to win the state’s GOP primary for attorney general.

At Least 120 Republican Nominees Deny The Results Of The 2020 Election | FiveThirtyEight
Back to TheHill.
There hasn’t been much polling to indicate how the latest crop of nominees will fare in the general. In Pennsylvania, polls have consistently shown Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) leading Mastriano in the gubernatorial race.

At the same time that some Republicans are speaking out against candidates who espouse unfounded election fraud claims, Democrats, believing they would be easier general election targets, are seeking to elevate a number of them.
 

lpetrich

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Democrats Spent $43 Million Helping Election Deniers Win Their Primaries
The Democrats are trying to beat the Republicans at their own game this midterm cycle, meddling in a number of GOP primaries with the hope that it'll improve their odds in November. But the strategy has required the party to spend tens of millions of dollars boosting election deniers, and if it backfires, the Democrats will have to shoulder some of the blame for helping those far-right candidates into office.

Democrats have spent at least $43,885,000 on advertising campaigns in races across six states. While the tactic has struggled to see success in congressional races, their efforts to highlight candidates who they believe will be easier to defeat in the general election finally paid off this week after Michigan Representative Peter Meijer was ousted by John Gibbs, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump.
PM was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump. He barely lost:

John Gibbs 51.8%, Peter Meijer 48.2%.

Maloney knocks Kinzinger criticism of DCCC funding GOP election denier | The Hill
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) on Sunday defended the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) after the group that he chairs took out an ad aimed at splitting Republican support between a moderate GOP incumbent and a far-right House challenger in a Michigan race.

“It’s flat wrong to say that we were promoting an election denier. We were attacking an election denier,” Maloney said on MSNBC’s “The Sunday Show with Jonathan Capehart.”
By attacking John Gibbs as a loon, the DCCC was indicating to the Republican base who to vote for.
 

lpetrich

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Kari Lake won, so can we give election 'stealing' a rest?
Opinion: In the wee hours of Wednesday morning, when 'no one was watching,' Kari Lake went from trailing to winning. Funny how that's not a problem now.

...
Instead of calling for counts, recounts and audits, Lake saw enough by late Tuesday night, despite an estimated 20% of ballots were yet to be counted. “We won today 7 out of 10 election day votes,” she told her supporters on Tuesday night. “There is no path to victory for my opponent and we won this race. Period.”

Arizona Primary Election Results 2022 - The New York Times
Governor

Katie Hobbs, the secretary of state, is the front-runner in her Democratic primary. Her opponent, Marco López, has tried to capitalize on accusations of racism against her from a former employee who is Black. In the Republican primary, Kari Lake, a Trump-backed former local television news star, emerged as the early front-runner, but polls show she hasn’t expanded her base. More traditional Republicans, including Gov. Doug Ducey, have rallied around Karrin Taylor Robson.
KL 48.0%, KTR 43.2%, others 3.7%

U.S. Senate

Blake Masters, with the backing of former President Donald J. Trump and Peter Thiel, has continued to lead the pack in public polling. But Mr. Masters has faced sustained competition from two other candidates: Mark Brnovich, the attorney general, who has come under fire for not buying into Trump’s election conspiracies, and Jim Lamon, an Army veteran and former solar energy business owner.
BM 40.2%, JL 28.1%, MB 17.7%

On the Democratic side, incumbent Mark Kelly is uncontested.

Secretary of State

Mark Finchem, one of the most vocal supporters of the 2020 election conspiracy theories and a state representative who has Donald Trump’s endorsement, is widely expected to win the G.O.P. nomination against three lesser-known candidates: Shawnna Bolick, Michelle Ugenti-Rita and Beau Lane. In the Democratic primary, Adrian Fontes, the former Maricopa recorder who lost his re-election to a Republican in 2020, is facing off against Reginald Bolding, the House minority leader.
MF: 42.5%, BL: 23.4%, SB 19.3%, MUR: 14.8%

Attorney General
Abraham Hamadeh: 33.5%, others 23.6%, 16.7%, 12.0%, 8.6%, 5.6%


Four election deniers won primaries in that state, for statewide-election seats.
 

Swammerdami

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Democrats Spent $43 Million Helping Election Deniers Win Their Primaries
The Democrats are trying to beat the Republicans at their own game this midterm cycle, meddling in a number of GOP primaries with the hope that it'll improve their odds in November. But the strategy has required the party to spend tens of millions of dollars boosting election deniers, and if it backfires, the Democrats will have to shoulder some of the blame for helping those far-right candidates into office.
By attacking John Gibbs as a loon, the DCCC was indicating to the Republican base who to vote for.

Just to be sure I understand this: The Democratic ads were sincere: Their ads ostensibly asked voters NOT to vote for the lunatics, morons and liars who endorsed sedition and treason. BUT, the intention was to HELP the lunatics: Republican voters would use these D-sponsored ads as a reason to vote FOR the lunatics.

Is that the idea?

I don't regret losing a few relatively sane GOPsters if that's the result of this perverse strategy. Twenty years from now "American Republican" will be a dirty word and the joke about German Nazis will be revised to describe them:
"What do you call someone who hated Donald Trump but supported or joined the Republican Party?"​
"A Republican."​
 

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Election deniers march toward power in key 2024 battlegrounds - The Washington Post.

The winners fit a pattern: Across the battleground states that decided the 2020 vote, candidates who deny the legitimacy of that election have claimed nearly two-thirds of GOP nominations for state and federal offices with authority over elections, according to a Washington Post analysis.

😳
"March toward" ... what?
At this point nary a one of them has won a general election.
I hope they are marching toward incarceration, oblivion, or something like that.
Dems are complicit in some of those GQP nominations, having dumped millions into what they see as weaker candidates.
 

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"March toward" ... what?
At this point nary a one of them has won a general election.
I hope they are marching toward incarceration, oblivion, or something like that.
Dems are complicit in some of those GQP nominations, having dumped millions into what they see as weaker candidates.

What general elections would there have been yet? It only takes one winning in the right place to upend everything.

On the Dems, while all they did was advertise how extreme the candidates were, which is not bad by itself, it's still too risky to play around with it imo.
 

lpetrich

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The Trump purge continues.

The Republican Reps who voted to impeach Donald Trump in the second impeachment:
  • Liz Cheney WY - lost primary
  • Anthony Gonzalez OH - retired
  • Jaime Herrera Beutler WA - lost primary
  • John Katko NY - retired
  • Adam Kinzinger IL - retired
  • Dan Newhouse WA - advanced in primary
  • Peter Meijer MI - lost primary
  • Tom Rice SC - lost primary
  • Fred Upton MI - retired
  • David Valadao CA - advanced in primary
Of these 10 Republicans, only two of them are continuing to the general election this November. The rest have either retired (4) or else have been defeated (4).

In the first impeachment, however, all the Republicans voted against it, and were joined by two Democrats. Tulsi Gabbard voted "Present".

In the Wyoming Republican primary for the state's only House district, Liz Cheney lost to Trump-supported candidate Harriet Hageman, 66.3% - 28.9% with the others 2.6%, 1.3%, 0.8%.

In Washington State district WA-03, Jaime Herrera Beutler placed 3rd, and will not continue on to the general election. She got 22.3%, with the top two getting 31.0% and 22.8%, and the others getting 16.0%, 3.2%, 2.2%, 1.7%, 0.5%, 0.2%.

But in WA-04, Dan Newhouse got 25.5% and advanced, with the others getting 25.2% and 21.5%.

In South Carolina district SC-07, Tom Rice lost, getting 24.5%, with the winner getting 51.1%, and the others getting 12.3%, 7.1%, 2.5%, 2.0%, 0.5%.

In California district CA-22, David Valadao advanced with 25.6% of the vote, with the top one getting 45.4% and the others getting 23.1% and 5.9%.
 

lpetrich

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I'll now look in the Senate.

In the first impeachment trial, Mitt Romney UT was the only Republican to vote to impeach Trump, and only for abuse of power.

Here are the Republicans who voted for continuing the trial and/or impeaching Trump.
  • Richard Burr NC - III - retired
  • Bill Cassidy LA - I, III - no election this year
  • Susan Collins ME - I, II, III - no election this year
  • Lisa Murkowski AK - I, II, III - advanced in primary
  • Mitt Romney UT - I, II, III - no election this year
  • Ben Sasse NE - I, II, III - no election this year
  • Pat Toomey PA - I, II, III - retired
Votes: I - on constitutionality of trial, II - challenge to its constitutionality, III - impeachment vote

With 69% reporting, Lisa Murkowski has 43.7% of the votes, Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka 40.4%, and the others much less.
 

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It would be so very sweet to see the Democrats gain 4 Senate seats. That would mean Democrats 54, GOP 46. It would mean no longer having to cater to Manchin or Sinema. It would help put a crimp in Moscow Mitch's Grim Reaper act.

Manchin and Sinema were very important to put a brake on Congressional Dems spending like a drunken sailor.
Spending $3.5T (B3) after spending so much already on COVID packages and on infrastructure would have poured fuel onto the inflation fire.

We would have been much worse off if not for those two.
Are you prepared to show your math? How does propreations relate to inflation? Does taxing individuals that earn more than $400K create inflationary pressure? how?
 

ZiprHead

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538 predicts for the Senate, 63% D 37% R, but for the House, 22% D 78% R, giving a chance of a Democratic Senate and a Republican House.
I'm having trouble parsing this. 538 is saying folk will vote for Dem senators but not Dem representatives???
 

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I'm having trouble parsing this. 538 is saying folk will vote for Dem senators but not Dem representatives???
Different races, different candidates. For one, only about 1/3 of the Senate is up for reelection. And House races are by district, while Senate is statewide. Finally, Republicans are hampered by getting some very poor candidates through the primaries. Herschel the Halfwit, Mehmet the Carpetbagger, JD the Porn Grabber.
 

lpetrich

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Mehmet Oz recently did a campaign ad featuring himself doing grocery shopping, but he made himself look very silly in it.

Oz’s viral crudité video sums up his campaign against Fetterman - "Wealthy Republicans absolutely love cosplaying as working-class everymen, and Oz’s performance was dismal even by those subterranean standards."
This week a spectacularly tone-deaf campaign video that Republican Pennsylvania Senate nominee Mehmet Oz first posted in April resurfaced on social media. In the video, Oz wanders around the produce section of the grocery store Redner’s (which he mispronounces “Wegners”), picks up a random assortment of vegetables, a container of premade salsa and a package of guacamole, marvels at their prices and then blames President Joe Biden for the cost. At the beginning of the video, Oz explained that his wife “wants some vegetables for crudité,” and proceeds to spend the next 31 seconds inadvertently doing a spot-on Lucille Bluth impression.

At the end of the video, in an apparent effort to relate to the viewer, he says, “Guys, that’s $20 for crudité and that doesn’t even include the tequila” in his unmistakable Jersey accent. He later claimed that it had all been a “joke,” but there’s nothing funny about a rich man pretending to share common cause with poor and working-class people he's built a career exploiting.
That's the first time I've ever heard of a crudité. I think that if a Democrat did something like that, Republican culture warriors would be jumping up and down on them for being an out-of-touch elitist.
Seeng a Trump-endorsed television celebrity who owns 10 multimillion-dollar properties in the U.S. and Turkey and who made a fortune from shilling snake oil and quack medical advice to vulnerable people try to pretend that a $2 head of broccoli is going to hurt his wallet is at the very least laughable. But it’s also insulting to the millions of people who do struggle to afford food under a brutal economic system that would prefer to see us all starve — a system that Oz, as a Republican, is running to uphold.

 Crudités
Crudités (/ˈkruːdɪteɪ(z)/, French: [kʁydite]) are French appetizers consisting of sliced or whole raw vegetables[1] which are typically dipped in a vinaigrette or other dipping sauce. Examples of crudités include celery sticks, carrot sticks, cucumber sticks, bell pepper strips, broccoli, cauliflower, fennel, baby corn, and asparagus spears.
 

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538 predicts for the Senate, 63% D 37% R, but for the House, 22% D 78% R, giving a chance of a Democratic Senate and a Republican House.
I'm having trouble parsing this. 538 is saying folk will vote for Dem senators but not Dem representatives???
Yup. The Dems and GOP have a few weak Senate seats: GA, NV, AZ / GOP have: PA, WI, OH.

The Trump base portion of the GOP appear to have own-goaled GA. NV should be close but safe. AZ, the Dems have the right guy there.

GOP put Dr. Oz on the ticket and the Dems have a left-wing equivalent of Jesse Ventura that is popular enough. Wisconsin Dems solidified behind one candidate and Sen. Johnson is really in a tight spot. Ohio would have likely sent Sen. Portman back, but he is retiring, so the Trump base portion of the GOP signed off on lightweight JD Vance and the Dems selected Rep. Tim Ryan who was genetically enhanced to win in purple America. The GOP saved themselves from a nightmare in MO, so it is likely that a 4 seat loss is not going to happen, but a 52-48 is definitely possible and it could be better.

The House is unpredictable. Normal years, Dems lose seats. Add to that, the GOP made with more gerrymandering, but the Dems did their fair share where they could. So that hurts. However, Dobbs changed the turnout math. And I wouldn't trust much in the way of polling regarding 2022, as if women (especially younger) turn out like in Kansas, the Dems could actually have a blue wave... a prediction no one is speaking about. But for the moment, in general, the Dems should expect to lose the House. The Dobbs wild card will play out as it will.
 

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For the first time in recent months, registered voters in the U.S. say that the top issue on their minds is the threat facing democracy, according to a poll from NBC released Sunday. Previous NBC polls in March and May showed that the top issue on the minds of those surveyed was cost of living.

The poll this time found that 21 percent of voters ranked "threats to democracy" as the most critical matter facing the country, while 16 percent chose "cost of living," which ranked as second. In third was "jobs and the economy," with 14 percent.

The poll also asked voters about their opinion on the investigations into former President Donald Trump's alleged misconduct: 57 percent of voters polled believe they should continue, while 40 percent said they should stop.
 

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For the first time in recent months, registered voters in the U.S. say that the top issue on their minds is the threat facing democracy, according to a poll from NBC released Sunday. Previous NBC polls in March and May showed that the top issue on the minds of those surveyed was cost of living.

The poll this time found that 21 percent of voters ranked "threats to democracy" as the most critical matter facing the country, while 16 percent chose "cost of living," which ranked as second. In third was "jobs and the economy," with 14 percent.

The poll also asked voters about their opinion on the investigations into former President Donald Trump's alleged misconduct: 57 percent of voters polled believe they should continue, while 40 percent said they should stop.
This week, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell cast doubt on Republicans' chances of retaking Congress' upper chamber, noting that he believes it will be easier for Republicans to win back control of the House. "Senate races are just different," he said, according to NBC News. "They're statewide. Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome."

He's not wrong. Just absolutely preplexed that the Republican senate candidate for PA is Dr. Oz. What the hell?
 

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Rob Pyers on Twitter: "After yesterday's ActBlue report, #GA14's Marcus Flowers is close to topping the 'most $ burned in unwinnable US House seat' list.
$12.16M #MN05 Johnson (Omar)
*$12.05M #GA14 Flowers (MTG)
$11.15M #NY14 Cummings (AOC)
$10.33M #CA43 Collins (Waters)
$8.29M #MD07 Klacik (Mfume)
(pix link)" / Twitter


The other four were Republicans who ran in strongly Democratic districts in 2020.

Noting a tweet from two years ago:
Rob Pyers on Twitter: "Four Republicans running in safe blue districts ..." / Twitter
Four Republicans running in safe blue districts persuaded GOP donors to part with a combined $41.9 million in the 2020 cycle

District/Cand/Vote Share/$ Raised

#CA43 Collins 28.3% ($10.33M)
#MD07 Klacik 28.4% ($8.29M)
#NY14 Cummings 27.4% ($11.15M)
#MN05 Johnson 25.9% ($12.16M)

Collins' campaign racked up $68,000 in Delta Flights, $30,000 in Uber & Lyft rides, spent tens of thousands at an assortment of luxury hotels and restaurants across the country, and funneled hundreds of thousands in consulting fees to LLCs of questionable provenance.

Cummings' campaign against AOC in #NY14 seems to have existed primarily to ensure direct mail vendors maintained a steady supply of boats and vacation homes...

Klacik and Johnson's campaigns ended up writing a lot of checks to WinRed for fundraising fees, credit card charges, and other assorted costs.
 

lpetrich

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The Florida primaries are coming out.

In FL-01, Matt Gaetz is winning with 65.6% vs. 23.7% and 10.6% with 78% counted.

But in FL-11, Laura Loomer is losing to incumbent Daniel Webster 44.5% - 50.7% with another candidate at 4.8%. LL is a far-right Islamophobe, white nationalist, and conspiracy monger who was endorsed by Marjorie Taylor Greene and Paul Gosar.

538 rates FL-11 as R+19, meaning that if LL had won, she would likely have won the general election.

With 94% of the vote counted, and 84% of the vote among the 4 candidates, Val Demings won the Democratic nomination for this US Senate race. Marco Rubio, the Republican and the incumbent was uncontested.

Also with 94% of the vote counted for the Democratic nomination for Florida governor, Charlie Crist has 59.8% of the vote, beating Nikki Fried at 35.2% and the two others at 2.5% and 2.4%.

From the NYT about this race,
Representative Charlie Crist is facing off against Nikki Fried, Florida’s agriculture commissioner, in the Democratic primary to compete against Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican. Mr. Crist, a former Republican, has emphasized his moderate bona fides, while Ms. Fried has portrayed her campaign as “something new.”
 

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Mehmet Oz's last name is originally Öz -- the o with an umlaut on it, like the German ö and the French eu. Make "eh" but with rounded lips like "oh". Also, his first name originally has a pronounced "h" -- mehh-met. It is the Turkish form of the name Mohammed.
 

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Blastula's tweet:
Acyn on Twitter: "Kornacki: NBC News has just called it. Pat Ryan has been elected to Congress… This is a significant victory for Democrats nationally.. This is not the result you would see in a strongly Republican climate (vid link)" / Twitter


New York Times coverage: New York Primary Election Results 2022 - The New York Times

538 estimates of district partisan margins: What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State - New York | FiveThirtyEight

DistrictD polR polD #R #D-R #538Diff
NY-19Pat RyanMarc Molinaro51.948.13.8-1+5
NY-23Max Della PiaJoseph Sempolinski46.753.3-6.6-23+16

So both elections were good for Democrats. The first was a victory, and the second was a defeat that was less than expected.
 

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Opinion | Dr. Oz, Herschel Walker or Blake Masters: Which candidate is worst? - The Washington Post
The race for the title of most incompetent, least electable Republican candidate for the Senate has become a real competition. Thanks, Donald Trump.

The former president’s endorsements led enough bad Senate nominees to primary victories that the GOP’s hopes of seizing control of the chamber — in what should be a Republican year — are fading. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) acknowledged ruefully last week that “candidate quality” is an issue. The “lack thereof” might have been implied, but his point was obvious.
listing
  • Herschel Walker - GA - Raphael Warnock
  • Mehmet Oz - PA - John Fetterman
  • Blake Masters - AZ - Mark Kelly
  • JD Vance - OH - Tim Ryan
  • Ron Johnson - WI - Mandela Barnes
  • Marco Rubio - FL - Val Demings

It certainly didn’t help last week that a video of Oz going grocery shopping and complaining about inflation went viral. Oz was trying to portray himself as Joe Average. He did not succeed.

In the video, first he gets the name of the store wrong — it was a Redner’s, a well-known Pennsylvania-based chain, not “Wegner’s,” as he called it. He then examines some raw broccoli, asparagus and carrots, and explains, “My wife wants some vegetables for crudités.” Fetterman, a cargo-shorts and hoodie-wearing Joe Average in everything but height, responded: “In PA, we call this a veggie tray” and issued a bumper sticker with the slogan “Let Them Eat Crudité.”

...
Masters has also attacked McConnell as being “not good at” legislating and has called for him to be replaced as GOP leader in the Senate. While Kelly’s political skills are seen by Democratic strategists as less than dazzling, a Fox News poll last week found him leading Masters by eight points, 50 percent to 42 percent.
 
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