On Deck: 2022

[ZiprHead]

More voters trust Republicans on economy as interest in midterms hits high, polls say

According to an NBC News poll released Sunday, 70 percent of registered voters expressed interest in the upcoming election as a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale.

www.politico.com

Voters trust Republicans more than Democrats on top issues including the economy, according to an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted less than three weeks before the midterm elections. The findings underscore the uphill battle for the president’s party to rally enthusiasm as voters continue to perceive the economy as poor.

On both the economy and gas prices, 36 percent of Americans trust Republicans more than Democrats —12 and 14 points higher than the percentage of people who trust Democrats on those issues, respectively.


Democrats still lead in voter trust on abortion, climate change, Covid-19 and gun violence, according to the poll, which was conducted last week and released on Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.” However, the economy and inflation are the issues most on the minds of voters, according to a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll released last week, giving a late bump in political momentum to Republicans.

Michael Cohen asked lask week who are the people that actually answer the phone from an unknown number? These are the people actually being polled.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Today on "Jumping the Gun", Democrats are doomed as GOP voters remember critical thing about themselves... they'll vote fucking anyone over a Democrat. There are three types of GOP voters at the moment. The MAGA voter, the principled in the summer voter, and the principled voter. We are in luck as my next post has all 14 principled GOP voters involved.

The issue for Dems in the polls in the summer was that this is when the second brand of GOP voters thinks to themselves... am I really going to vote for a Snake Oil Salesman who lives in New Jersey? Am I really voting for a business investor from California who bad mouthed Trump? Am I really going to vote for the Moderate turn Conspiracy Theorist in Wisconsin?

But then time passes, a lot of Fox News and AM radio is consumed, and come in the fall... these once Principled GOP voters, will now vote for anyone that has an R after their name because "this is war!" So, the polls went from some GOP voters abandoning their principles, resulting in Democrat leads to tight races or the Republican in the lead. Hence the trend to the Red on the election map.

So the Democrats are fucked this November. Red wave will wash over us like... well a large red wave.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

A little bit later on "Jumping the Gun", the GOP Is fucked! Early voting data out of Georgia is really pushing a tale that I keep telling people to heed... Stacy Abrams knows what she is fucking doing!

After one full week of in-person early voting in Georgia, nearly 838,000 people have already cast their ballots in an election that is expected to shatter midterm records.

Anyone paying attention to my posts keeps talking about poll modeling, Lagrangian points, turnout, and speelcheckking. This is the first step of the Democrats holding onto power. Voter turnout. Among the 838k early votes, we don't know how many were Democrats, which may cause people to pause.

It is unwise to read too much into those numbers: Some Democrats crossed over to vote against candidates backed by former President Donald Trump in that primary, while the Democratic Party's did not have as many high-profile matchups — and, of course, people change their mind about who they support.

But I disagree... it way wise to read way too much into this single metric. Especially after looking at another.

Looking at the demographics of Georgia's voters so far, the electorate is older and Blacker than this time in previous elections, as tightly contested races for U.S. Senate, governor and other statewide offices is driving voter enthusiasm.

Georgia elections are about one thing, turnout. If enough Blacks turnout, the Democrats can win. It helps if the GOP candidate is a bloody maroon too. But right now, the mid-term early voting is a critical slice of data pointing towards an obvious blue wave!

The question becomes, whether we see an uptick in younger women voting... which will put Kemp's job on the line.

 

[lpetrich]

As Republicans Campaign on Crime, Racism Is a New Battlefront - The New York Times

Running ads portraying Black candidates as soft on crime — or as “different” or “dangerous” — Republicans have shed quiet defenses of such tactics for unabashed defiance.

Appeals to white fears and resentments are an old strategy in American elections, etched into the country’s political consciousness, with ads like George Bush’s ad using the Black convict Willie Horton against Michael Dukakis in 1988, and Jesse Helms’s 1990 commercial showing a white man’s hands to denounce his Black opponent’s support for “quotas.”

If the intervening decades saw such tactics become harder to defend, the rise of Donald J. Trump shattered taboos, as he spoke of “rapist” immigrants and “shithole countries” in Africa and the Caribbean. But while Republicans quietly stood by advertising that Democrats called racist in 2018, this year, they have responded with defiance, saying they see nothing untoward in their imagery and nothing to apologize for.

Like Mandela Barnes of WI-Sen, Michelle Vallejo of TX-15, and Cheri Beasley of of NC-Sen.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

A little funny with Fox News.

Literally minutes after Fox News highlighted a recent CNN poll showing GOP Pennsylvania Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz trailing six points on Tuesday, anchor Harris Faulkner chastised Fox News commentator Leslie Marshall for daring to cite it during an on-air discussion.

At the top of Tuesday’s broadcast of Fox News midday chatfest Outnumbered, co-host (and former Trump press secretary) Kayleigh McEnany noted that the “Pennsylvania Senate matchup is in the spotlight” as Oz and Democratic Senate hopeful John Fetterman are set to face off in their only scheduled debate.

“It is a race that could determine which party controls the Senate. Polls show only single digits separating John Fetterman and Dr. Oz,” McEnany stated as the control room aired a large graphic of CNN’s latest survey showing Fetterman polling at 51 percent and Oz at 45 percent.

 

[Derec]

As Republicans Campaign on Crime, Racism Is a New Battlefront - The New York Times

NYT is paywalled, so I will just comment on what is quoted.

Running ads portraying Black candidates as soft on crime — or as “different” or “dangerous” — Republicans have shed quiet defenses of such tactics for unabashed defiance.

If candidates are soft on crime, or otherwise advocate for policies that are seen as "dangerous" by their critics, should they not be criticized if those candidates are black?
And does this apply only to Democratic black candidates? I do not see anybody refraining from criticizing Herschel Walker in very harsh terms. So why should a "defund" advocate like say Mandela Barnes be exempt?

Appeals to white fears and resentments are an old strategy in American elections,

Appeals to fears in general are. The whole "defund the police" movement can be described as "appeals to black fears and resentments".

etched into the country’s political consciousness, with ads like George Bush’s ad using the Black convict Willie Horton against Michael Dukakis in 1988,

I know this ad is much maligned, but I do not see what was so bad, much less "racist" about that ad.
Horton was an actual murderer who was released on furlough because of Dukakis, and he attacked other people. Would the ad have been ok had Horton been a white murderer?

and Jesse Helms’s 1990 commercial showing a white man’s hands to denounce his Black opponent’s support for “quotas.”

Quotas and other forms of racial preferences are what's racist, not ads attacking/denouncing them.

If the intervening decades saw such tactics become harder to defend,

Yes, but that this rise of racist double standards was not a good development.

Like Mandela Barnes of WI-Sen, Michelle Vallejo of TX-15, and Cheri Beasley of of NC-Sen.

Mandela Barnes is an extremist. Don't know much about the other two. What are their views on things like crime?

 

[Derec]

Anyone paying attention to my posts keeps talking about poll modeling, Lagrangian points,

Huh?

turnout, and speelcheckking. This is the first step of the Democrats holding onto power. Voter turnout. Among the 838k early votes, we don't know how many were Democrats, which may cause people to pause.

Conventional wisdom is that greater turnout would favor Democrats, because they are harder to turn out, so a low turnout elections (as most Midterms are) favors Republicans.

However, this election may defy common wisdom on many fronts. We shall see how it all shakes out soon enough.

The question becomes, whether we see an uptick in younger women voting... which will put Kemp's job on the line.

I do not see much evidence that Abrams is within striking distance.
There is much to like about Abrams, and much to dislike about Kemp, but it is an uphill battle for her.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

As Republicans Campaign on Crime, Racism Is a New Battlefront - The New York Times

NYT is paywalled, so I will just comment on what is quoted.

Running ads portraying Black candidates as soft on crime — or as “different” or “dangerous” — Republicans have shed quiet defenses of such tactics for unabashed defiance.

If candidates are soft on crime, or otherwise advocate for policies that are seen as "dangerous" by their critics, should they not be criticized if those candidates are black?
And does this apply only to Democratic black candidates? I do not see anybody refraining from criticizing Herschel Walker in very harsh terms. So why should a "defund" advocate like say Mandela Barnes be exempt?

But when you say all the Democrats are "soft on crime" and "big spenders", it makes it seem like they aren't actually trying to make a position, but just use a very broadbrush to paint the Democrats as a clear and present danger to you America.

etched into the country’s political consciousness, with ads like George Bush’s ad using the Black convict Willie Horton against Michael Dukakis in 1988,

I know this ad is much maligned, but I do not see what was so bad, much less "racist" about that ad.

Yeah... that'd be your lack of awareness there. Kind of like how I was oblivious to what George W. Bush meant in his debate with Gore about appointing justices that were against the Dred Scot decision. It is called a "dog whistle".

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Anyone paying attention to my posts keeps talking about poll modeling, Lagrangian points,

Huh?

*sigh*... but you didn't pick up on speelcheckking?

turnout, and speelcheckking. This is the first step of the Democrats holding onto power. Voter turnout. Among the 838k early votes, we don't know how many were Democrats, which may cause people to pause.

Conventional wisdom is that greater turnout would favor Democrats, because they are harder to turn out, so a low turnout elections (as most Midterms are) favors Republicans.

However, this election may defy common wisdom on many fronts. We shall see how it all shakes out soon enough.

And if you had read what I posted, I made it very clear, young female voter turnout may turn this into a blood bath... or maybe not. But the polling wouldn't be able to pick it up if it were due to modeling turnout for a mid-term. With the early voting being so high, I think it might be possible to already toss out the polls in Georgia, because if they didn't model the turnout at all. And it isn't their fault, the turnout is just potentially huge. It'll be interesting to see how Election Day turnout is.

The question becomes, whether we see an uptick in younger women voting... which will put Kemp's job on the line.

I do not see much evidence that Abrams is within striking distance.

Kansas 3 to 2 for abortion. That was Kansas! Put it this way, Dobbs created a new minority voter... a 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 voting for Democrat over Republican female voter that hadn't voted in general before because why does it matter. Unlike other political issues, abortion and birth control is an issue that women are reminded of with politicians or not. So this problem isn't going away. So if there is a decent size uptick in Dobbs related voters, the GOP Is in trouble, BIG trouble. They can't afford 3 to 5 pt leads when a new group could erase that with ease.

But again, we simply don't know. It is out there to be seen. The current turnout in Georgia is also hard to gauge, whether it is a typical General Election turnout and it'll be nail biter... or whether the GOP are about to get pummeled, or even possibly the GOP are about to pummel, but it is hard to see such emphasis on that side from early voting with so many voters tending towards being younger.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

And then you've got MAGA-America trying to fuck things up by being patriotic.

PAHRUMP, Nev. (AP) — Volunteers in a rural Nevada county where voting machine conspiracy theories led to an unprecedented hand-count of mail-in ballots came face-to-face with one messy reality of their plan Wednesday: It’s more time-consuming than anticipated.

...

Two groups of five that The Associated Press observed Wednesday spent about three hours each counting 50 ballots. Mismatched tallies led to recounts, and occasionally more recounts. Several noted how arduous the process was, with one volunteer lamenting: “I can’t believe it’s two hours to get through 25” ballots.

These people are so fucking stupid. The ACLU is needing to remind these people about things like releasing results or doing things that indicate votes to the public.

 

[TV and credit cards]

And then you've got MAGA-America trying to fuck things up by being patriotic.

PAHRUMP, Nev. (AP) — Volunteers in a rural Nevada county where voting machine conspiracy theories led to an unprecedented hand-count of mail-in ballots came face-to-face with one messy reality of their plan Wednesday: It’s more time-consuming than anticipated.

...

Two groups of five that The Associated Press observed Wednesday spent about three hours each counting 50 ballots. Mismatched tallies led to recounts, and occasionally more recounts. Several noted how arduous the process was, with one volunteer lamenting: “I can’t believe it’s two hours to get through 25” ballots.

These people are so fucking stupid. The ACLU is needing to remind these people about things like releasing results or doing things that indicate votes to the public.

No, they are so fucking bored. It is such a lonely and desolate place, it sucks the sanity right out of you. Drive through Nevada. I dare you. You will weep at the thought of having to drive back or just go around that fucking state altogether.
It’s either drugs or conspiracy theories. That’s all there is to do. I say flood the place with fentanyl and be done with it.

 

[lpetrich]

House Republicans threaten debt ceiling fight for spending cuts [Video]

If Republicans take control of the House of Representatives in next month’s midterm elections, they will refuse to raise the debt ceiling unless Democrats agree to spending cuts to domestic programs, possibly including Social Security and Medicare, according to recent interviews with House GOP leaders.

Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo.:

Smith said the focus could be on “welfare reform, making sure that work requirements are put in place for able-bodied healthy adults. We need to make sure income verification are in place for welfare programs.” Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, said work requirements for food stamps should be written into law as well.

Rep. Lloyd Smucker, R-Pa., said Republicans could consider means testing, cutting off retirement and health care benefits to Americans over a certain income. Smucker acknowledged that touching the popular programs could prove politically dangerous, but Bloomberg wrote that he said “high inflation after record deficits may give conservatives the political willpower to seek ambitious cuts needed to curtail government spending.”

Republicans only engage in debt ceiling brinkmanship when Democrats are in the White House. The debt limit was quietly raised three times during Donald Trump’s term, even though the national debt increased $7.8 trillion during his tenure. Last year, Republicans used the filibuster to block a debt ceiling increase for months, before lifting the blockade and voting almost unanimously against the increase. In 2011, with a Republican-controlled House, a Democratic Senate and Barack Obama as president, Republicans refused to raise the debt limit for months, resulting in the country’s credit rating being downgraded for the first time.

Republican Presidents have also been very willing to run deficits, without self-styled deficit hawks objecting like they do to Democratic deficit spending. It's almost as if they believe in something like Modern Monetary Theory when a Republican is in the White House.

 

[Oleg]

Republican Presidents have also been very willing to run deficits, without self-styled deficit hawks objecting like they do to Democratic deficit spending. It's almost as if they believe in something like Modern Monetary Theory when a Republican is in the White House.

This is annoying true. When Bush the Younger had both houses of Congress, Rs had the opportunity to affirm their sterotype as fiscally responsible / deficit hawks. Boy, was that a dissapointment.

 

[lpetrich]

Republican Presidents have also been very willing to run deficits, without self-styled deficit hawks objecting like they do to Democratic deficit spending. It's almost as if they believe in something like Modern Monetary Theory when a Republican is in the White House.

This is annoying true. When Bush the Younger had both houses of Congress, Rs had the opportunity to affirm their sterotype as fiscally responsible / deficit hawks. Boy, was that a dissapointment.

I appreciate that.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Do not forget the Grover Norquist pledge to never raise taxes for any reason. So if the GOP under Trump slashes taxes and that turns out to cause massive budget problems, that means the only redres left for the GOP is toslash spending, services, and cutting safety net programs. We see this in play now. It is all according to plan. Starve the beast. Downsize government small enough and drag it to a bath tub and drown it.

 

[ZiprHead]

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jude_Wanniski

The Two Santa Claus Theory[edit]​

The Two Santa Claus Theory is a political theory and strategy published by Wanniski in 1976, which he promoted within the United States Republican Party.[15][16] The theory states that in democratic elections, if members of the rival Democratic Party appeal to voters by proposing programs to help people, then the Republicans cannot gain broader appeal by proposing less spending. The first "Santa Claus" of the theory title refers to the Democrats who promise programs to help the disadvantaged. The "Two Santa Claus Theory" recommends that the Republicans must assume the role of a second Santa Claus by not arguing to cut spending but offering the option of cutting taxes.[citation needed]

According to Wanniski, the theory is simple. In 1976, he wrote that the Two-Santa Claus Theory suggests that "the Republicans should concentrate on tax-rate reduction. As they succeed in expanding incentives to produce, they will move the economy back to full employment and thereby reduce social pressures for public spending. Just as an increase in Government spending inevitably means taxes must be raised, a cut in tax rates—by expanding the private sector—will diminish the relative size of the public sector."[16] Wanniski suggested this position, as left-liberal observer Thom Hartmann has clarified, so that the Democrats would "have to be anti-Santas by raising taxes, or anti-Santas by cutting spending. Either one would lose them elections."[17]

 

[ZiprHead]

During TFG, 7.5 trillion was added to the debt.

 

[ZiprHead]

GOP New Hampshire Senate nominee repeats hoax that kids are using litter boxes in schools | CNN Politics

The Republican Senate nominee in New Hampshire shared at a Thursday event the hoax claim that children are being told they can identify as anthropomorphic cats and use litter boxes in schools.

www.cnn.com

The Republican Senate nominee in New Hampshire shared at a Thursday event the hoax claim that children are being told they can identify as anthropomorphic cats and use litter boxes in schools.

Don Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general who is challenging Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan, made the comments while speaking to supporters in North Hampton, according to audio obtained by CNN’s KFile from an attendee. The claim, which has occasionally been cited by some Republican politicians, has been repeatedly debunked.

“Guess what? We have furries and fuzzies in classrooms,” Bolduc told the crowd. “They lick themselves, they’re cats. When they don’t like something, they hiss – people walk down the hallway and jump out,” he said, as a hissing sound could be heard.

“And get this, get this,” he continued. “They’re putting litter boxes, right? Litter boxes for that. … These are the same people that are concerned about spreading germs. Yet they let children lick themselves and then touch everything. And they’re starting to lick each other.”

“I wish I was making it up,” concluded Bolduc. “I honestly wish it was a ‘Saturday Night Live’ skit.”

Damn, Republicans are fucking stupid nowadays.

 

[ZiprHead]

If yard signs are any measure, it looks like a Dem steamroll over the Republicans. Even in the suburbs the signs are two to one for the Dems. That's very unusual.

Of course the Republicans this go around are total loons. The SOS candidate believes abortions are a satanic ritual and Democrats are demon-possessed.

 

[ZiprHead]