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Only 51% Republicans Voted For Trump in Iowa

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SLD

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Ok. He won. No shit. But it wasn’t a 70 or 80% win. Merely 51.47%. Hmmm. I would’ve thought it would’ve been a lot more. Not exactly an encouraging endorsement. Makes me wonder if a Lynn Cheney run might be worth a shot.
 
51% was a record though for a non-incumbent primary. It should be noted that a former one-termer stats are non-existent. DeSantis's campaign gets a minor reprieve with a second place finish. Haley's result is a setback. On to New Hampshire to see how far gone the alt-right is.
 
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Ann Selzer, Iowa polling god, had Haley in second. It was a close 2nd / 3rd, but right now, it is about being the top competitor to Trump. Turnout was relatively low for this one. It was cold, snowy, and the NFL playoffs were on.
 
I don't really think this means much. The weather was absolutely terrible and Trump was a shoe in to win. I think a lot of Trump supporters just didn't go because they didn't think their votes were needed.
 
SLD said:
But it wasn’t a 70 or 80% win.
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It WAS 80%, but of course the ballots were miscounted. Just ask Trump. (sarcasm)
ZiprHead said:
I think a lot of Trump supporters just didn't go because they didn't think their votes were needed.
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Pass the word. Their votes aren't needed. They can stay home.
 
ideologyhunter said:
The 49% who did not vote for Trump aint jumpin on the Joe wagon in November.
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Some polls suggest that Halley voters would jump to Biden. But I’m a bit skeptical.

However would they vote for Cheney? She’s definitely contemplating a run and maybe, just maybe, she could siphon off enough votes to stop the son of a bitch. I know a lot of conservatives who hate Trump but agree with a lot of his policies. They vote for him, but might at least consider a protest vote. But obviously she can’t win.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
51% was a record though for a non-incumbent primary. It should be noted that a former one-termer stats are non-existent. DeSantis's campaign gets a minor reprieve with a second place finish. Haley's result is a setback. On to New Hampshire to see how far gone the alt-right is.
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When Trump was the incumbent, he got 97% in the Iowa caucus in 2020. Now that he is merely the person in charge of the Republican Party who still claims he won the general election in 2020, he got barely more than half the caucus to back him. The 2024 general election is going to be very different. The country now knows what kind of president Trump was. Voters decided in 2020 that they had had enough of him. The vote for his opponent wasn't a landslide, but it was decisive in both electoral and popular counts. It appears that they will now get to decide again whether they want him back. He is truly the zombie presidential candidate. He can be knocked down, but he can't be knocked out. There is a hard core of Republicans who clearly do want him back, but that isn't enough to win a general election. It is enough to win the Republican nomination, even though he faces 91 criminal indictments.
 
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Let's be clear... portions of the right-wing did not want Trump in 2016. But, they voted for him because the GOP would be able to appoint judges and pass tax cuts (which is what happened). That is all that matters these days. That metric has not changed and the riot has been normalized in the minds of many conservatives. Additionally, some on the right have radicalized over this stretch as well.

So while Trump might not have done as well as some think he should have in Iowa, being on the ballot with an R next to the name is really all that matters in November.

It might not be enough to win in 2020, but I think it is a mistake to think the conservatives will stay home.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
they voted for him because the GOP would be able to appoint judges and pass tax cuts (which is what happened). That is all that matters these days. That metric has not changed…
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Oh, yes it has. They appointed judges who decided to insert themselves into the Physicians’ exam rooms, invading the gynecology and obstetrics professions, killing off RvW and destroying Republicans performance ever since.
 
Some members of my family would still vote for the Orange Shitface even if he was running against Jesus H Christ. And we can't know if Iowa was a representative vote because all voting is rigged according to Orange Shitface. Orange Shitface is most certainly going to lose the national popular vote. I just hope it's bad enough to lose the electoral vote as well.
 
T.G.G. Moogly said:
Orange Shitface is most certainly going to lose the national popular vote. I just hope it's bad enough to lose the electoral vote as well.
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You’re verging on the question that no trumpsucker can touch; what margin of defeat would be sufficient to cause Cheato to admit that he lost?
A: No margin of defeat will EVER produce that result.

Denying reality is the (not so very) new hallmark of Republican politics. Climate, election results, the economy, the fascist threat, Russian aggression … the list of realities that today’s Republicans are required to deny, is endless.
 
He is running ahead of Biden in some key swing states. It's fucking nuts, but it's happening. Why are some people on this thread convinced that he can't win? Biden was ahead of Trump at this point in '20 and stayed ahead. Even though Trump (and his corporation) have lost trials in the recent past on tax evasion, fraud, sexual abuse and defamation, even though the current economic numbers are at a level Trump would have killed to have had 4 years ago -- he's picking up, apparently, the independent voters he'll need to reach the magic 270. There better be some absolute geniuses in the Biden reelection campaign, because if things don't change, we are fucked, fucked, fucked.
 
ideologyhunter said:
He is running ahead of Biden in some key swing states. It's fucking nuts, but it's happening. Why are some people on this thread convinced that he can't win? Biden was ahead of Trump at this point in '20 and stayed ahead. Even though Trump (and his corporation) have lost trials in the recent past on tax evasion, fraud, sexual abuse and defamation, even though the current economic numbers are at a level Trump would have killed to have had 4 years ago -- he's picking up, apparently, the independent voters he'll need to reach the magic 270. There better be some absolute geniuses in the Biden reelection campaign, because if things don't change, we are fucked, fucked, fucked.
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I don't think that it helps to panic over polls this early before the general election starts. We should be wary of news cycles driven by what is trending in social media rather than the significant events that don't get a lot of clicks. Right now, people are angry that their choice is limited to two eighty-somethings rather than politicians who are more connected to the future. Trump has an enthusiastic cult backing his campaign, and Biden is basically the non-Trump candidate. It remains to be seen how seriously Trump's criminal trials will affect his ability to even conduct a campaign, and he isn't helping Republicans down-ballot from him either.
 
All things being equal, the Fed managed what appears to be the "soft landing". We were supposed to have a recession. People are pissed over the inflation, but the economy is generally trending positive for a couple quarters, which will then be in the pockets of people a couple more. Things are trending in a good direction for Biden. Not great, but definitely good.

I'm really not certain what else Biden could have managed given the ultra-tight majorities he had.

Trump is doing well, too well, but I'm not saying he is going to win. I'm just not saying he has no chance either. The alt-right have lost their minds and the conservatives will trade a few bucks for our democracy on any day it seems.
 
Copernicus said:
ideologyhunter said:
He is running ahead of Biden in some key swing states. It's fucking nuts, but it's happening. Why are some people on this thread convinced that he can't win? Biden was ahead of Trump at this point in '20 and stayed ahead. Even though Trump (and his corporation) have lost trials in the recent past on tax evasion, fraud, sexual abuse and defamation, even though the current economic numbers are at a level Trump would have killed to have had 4 years ago -- he's picking up, apparently, the independent voters he'll need to reach the magic 270. There better be some absolute geniuses in the Biden reelection campaign, because if things don't change, we are fucked, fucked, fucked.
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I don't think that it helps to panic over polls this early before the general election starts. We should be wary of news cycles driven by what is trending in social media rather than the significant events that don't get a lot of clicks. Right now, people are angry that their choice is limited to two eighty-somethings rather than politicians who are more connected to the future. Trump has an enthusiastic cult backing his campaign, and Biden is basically the non-Trump candidate. It remains to be seen how seriously Trump's criminal trials will affect his ability to even conduct a campaign, and he isn't helping Republicans down-ballot from him either.
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This is true. Polls that show Trump ahead get splattered all over the media. Polls that show Biden ahead, not a peep.
 
51.5% of what? How many registered voters are there in Iowa? How many voted? Maybe 20% voted for tRump.
 
Iowa is not representative of the US. It is whiter, older and less educated on average.
 
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