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Over population derail from "Humans as non-animals"

Electricity for the poor was an afterthought? Tired old 19th century Marxist rhetoric, the masses versus the evil business owners.

The competition between Westinghouse and Tesla vs Edison over which electrical generation system would prevail is legendary, at least in some circles. A thread for technology and science.


A walk down memory lane.

Cheap coal provided cheap electrical power generation. That led to rural electrification. There are documentaries on it.



The Rural Electrification Act of 1936 (REA), enacted on May 20, 1936, provided federal loans for the installation of electrical distribution systems to serve isolated rural areas of the United States.

The funding was channeled through cooperative electric power companies, hundreds of which still exist today.[1] These member-owned cooperatives purchased power on a wholesale basis and distributed it using their own network of transmission and distribution lines. The Rural Electrification Act was one of many New Deal proposals by President Franklin D. Roosevelt to remedy high unemployment during the Great Depression.


I knew about the TVA in high school.


The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) is a federally owned electric utility corporation in the United States. TVA's service area covers all of Tennessee, portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Kentucky, and small areas of Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia. While owned by the federal government, TVA receives no taxpayer funding and operates similarly to a private for-profit company. It is headquartered in Knoxville, Tennessee, and is the sixth-largest power supplier and largest public utility in the country.[3][4]

The TVA was created by Congress in 1933 as part of President Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal. Its initial purpose was to provide navigation, flood control, electricity generation, fertilizer manufacturing, regional planning, and economic development to the Tennessee Valley, a region that had suffered from lack of infrastructure and even more extensive poverty during the Great Depression than other regions of the nation. TVA was envisioned both as a power supplier and a regional economic development agency that would work to help modernize the region's economy and society. It later evolved primarily into an electric utility.[5] It was the first large regional planning agency of the U.S. federal government, and remains the largest.

Under the leadership of David E. Lilienthal, the TVA also became the global model for the United States' later efforts to help modernize agrarian societies in the developing world.[6][7] The TVA historically has been documented as a success in its efforts to modernize the Tennessee Valley and helping to recruit new employment opportunities to the region. Historians have criticized its use of eminent domain and the displacement of over 125,000 Tennessee Valley residents to build the agency's infrastructure projects.[8][9][10]



Add the big federal hydro power projects that provided cheap electricity in the PNW and other areas. Electrify plus the national highway system pushed by Eisenhower and cheap gasoline led to economic growth in depressed areas supporting population growth. The rise of the suburban bedroom committees. Another social science thread.

Everything really is connected. You can not single out one isolated cause for anything. Unless you are a narrow minded ideological activist.


Populations grow in proportion to available energy, from fish to humans.
 
that is not a problem because it's not our job yo solve them, and the people whose job it is, our descendants, have tools available to them that we cannot even dream of.
I am disappointed in you. Having your head in the sand like this.
I am further saying that throughout history, many such problems have arisen, and yet none have proven impossible to address.
Arcology has many examples of cities disappearing from lack of resources. (mostly water)
If you have paid attention in the last three decades, you will know that the population bomb has been defused.
By Covid?
We could have gone full out replacing coal with nuclear power in the 1960s, or at any time since (including now); But we haven't.

Not because of population. Because of hippies.
This old hippy would like to point to Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. Maybe we learned from these. But there are bound to be more.
Population increase is what makes them necessary, in spite of the risks. Why aren't we replacing coal with solar and wind?
 
Caused, not by "population", but by burning coal, oil, and gas.
Coal oil and gas aren’t burning themselves. It’s being done to make people comfortable. A whole population of them.
Sure. But half as many people can and will still burn the same amount; They will just take twice as long to do it. Disaster in two centuries rather than in one isn't disaster averted. The solution isn't population reductions, it's fossil fuel use reductions.
 
Populations grow in proportion to available energy, from fish to humans.
Then how do you explain the massive and obvious inverse relationship between energy consumption per capita and total fertility rate worldwide?

A mere glance at reality shows that your claim here is exactly wrong.
 
This old hippy would like to point to Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. Maybe we learned from these. But there are bound to be more.
Well, it's a shame that I have never heard of those, and completely failed to consider them when hurriedly formulating my position, which I absolutely haven't been considering, investigating, and refining for years, in the face of battalions of old hippies who think the single word 'Chernobyl' is a magic banishment spell for any thoughts about nuclear energy.

And let me add the zero deaths and zero injuries at Three Mile Island to my dataset, and see what a huge difference that makes.

You are the first person ever to mention Chernobyl to me, and now I shall need to completely revise my position.

Oh, wait...

To be as hazardous as the coal power stations they ought to replace, nuclear plants would need a Chernobyl sized disaster every two weeks. They actually had just one fatal accident in seventy years. And that was in a design known to be dangerous, that only failed because unqualified people were allowed to run unapproved tests in an incompetent manner.

The worst possible nuclear power plant accident would be one in which the containment completely failed, and a significant volume of the radioactive inventory was spread over a wide area, as fine particles; While authorities did nothing for days, and then put in a half-arsed response.

We saw that at Chernobyl. The death toll was that of a medium sized industrial accident; Nuclear accidents have been demonstrated by the USSR to be not significantly more deadly, or more threatening to public safety and health, than other industrial accidents.

The difference in accidents at nuclear plants vs those at other kinds of power plant or factory, is NOT between catastrophic but rare accidents vs serious but frequent ones. It is between serious but rare accidents vs serious but frequent ones.

Nuclear power has had only one fatal accident in its entire history, and that accident was as bad as it could possibly be - but still killed fewer people than the contemporary Bophal disaster.

Do you remember Bophal? Is it constantly brought up whenever any new chemical plant is proposed? Are there TV miniseries and special documentaries made about it?

Bophal happened the same year as Chernobyl. It was worse than Chernobyl, by pretty much any measure you care to choose. So why are people worried about nuclear accidents, but unconcerned about chemical plant accidents?

Could it be that there is a vast effort being made to unreasonably denigrate nuclear power, whether intentionally, or as a consequence of ignorance? There doesn't seem to be any other reason why you would post your terror and unreason (and that of others) as though it were an argument against the industry.

Nuclear power is the clear and obvious winner. No other technology comes close.

Cost per kWh is a seriously contentious question. Nuclear power is fairly expensive, but mostly that's because powerful lobbies have spent six decades making it as expensive as possible, particularly in the USA. The cost per kWh is, however, still competitive with other generation technologies to a sufficient extent that plants remain open, and new plants are being built. The OECD's Nuclear Energy Agency gives a levelised cost in the USA of $77.71/MWh for nuclear, based on a 7% interest rate, with a cost on the same basis of $65.95/MWh for gas, and $93.75 for coal; The cheapest Solar PV option (large ground based panels) in the US has an LCOE of $79.84/MWh, and the cheapest wind power (onshore wind, 49% capacity factor) $42.85/MWh but this includes nothing to offset the intermittency of this power (see below). If the Capacity factor of the same onshore wind generator is 35%, the LCOE rises to $65.32/MWh.

By comparison, in Korea, the LCOE of nuclear power is just US$40.42/MWh, making it the cheapest even before the cost of intermittency is considered. The inherent cost of nuclear power is very low, and that shouldn't be a surprise - nuclear power is very simple technology, once you have produced a suitable fuel. You put the fuel in a big lump wrapped in concrete and steel, and it gets really hot. You needn't do much else, and you don't even need to put new fuel in (or remove the "waste") for at least several months. Plants last for many many decades, largely because of this simplicity and lack of moving parts.

The anti-nuclear lobby love to quote low costs for wind power, which really does have low LCOE, but this is somewhat misleading. The viability of a power plant is not solely determined by the cost of its output - it's also a function of the value of that output. A kWh of electricity at 3pm on a sunny and breezy afternoon in California can be worth less than nothing - that is, you have to pay the grid to take it off your hands. The same kWh on a still, hot evening, just after sunset, can be vastly more valuable - but wind and solar generators cannot take advantage of that high wholesale market price, unless they stored electricity generated when prices were low. But of course, storage is expensive. An LCOE calculated without including the cost of such storage results in figures that appear artificially low, and give a misleading idea of viability and profitability.

Deaths and environmental damage are perhaps less contentious. Deaths are difficult to fudge the numbers on for any technology, and the deaths per TWh for various sources were calculated by ExternE, a European project that set out in 2005 to calculate the various 'external' costs of energy, including public health and environmental impacts, and their data on deaths per TWh have been widely reported since that study (P. Bickel and R. Friedrich, Externalities of Energy, European Union Report EUR 21951, Luxembourg (2005); I haven't got a link to the original paper online, but reports such as James Conca's and Brian Wang's give the figures) was published. Their initial figure of 0.04 deaths/TWh for nuclear power was later revised down to 0.01/TWh, on the back of lower than projected actual cancer deaths amongst Chernobyl survivors, and the absence of a detectable increase in such deaths across Europe; James Conca's article linked above has been updated with this new information. Whichever dataset you choose, nuclear power is by far the least deadly way to make electricity, with only onshore wind coming close.

Environmental damage is not as clear cut as deaths, and depends on what you consider 'damage', and on how much of it you are willing to tolerate. Typically, the tolerance of environmental activists varies by technology, with a nuclear plant that raises river water temperatures by a couple of degrees being 'bad', while the mining of rare earths for wind turbines is simply ignored. On a like-for-like basis, nuclear power is one of the least damaging to the environment of any electricity generating technology. The materials used are small in quantity per kWh generated, and waste streams are completely managed and segregated from the environment indefinitely - a claim no other industry, power generation or otherwise, can match. Iida Ruishalme's Thoughtscapism blog is an excellent place to find hard data on the environmental impacts of nuclear power; She is a cell biologist and always backs her arguments with solid references. https://thoughtscapism.com/2017/11/04/nuclear-waste-ideas-vs-reality/ is a good starting point; https://thoughtscapism.com/2017/11/...astest-and-lowest-cost-clean-energy-solution/ is another article in which she addresses these questions.








The last four paragraphs above are a copy/paste of a post I made in a previous discussion of nuclear power; I saved a copy because the same basic slurs just keep being repeated over and over by the anti-nuclear lobby
 
Caused, not by "population", but by burning coal, oil, and gas.
Coal oil and gas aren’t burning themselves. It’s being done to make people comfortable. A whole population of them.
Sure. But half as many people can and will still burn the same amount; They will just take twice as long to do it. Disaster in two centuries rather than in one isn't disaster averted. The solution isn't population reductions, it's fossil fuel use reductions.
There would be a rate of sequestration that would allow for stability in the face of some people burning coal. It’s a matter of how many.
 
Populations grow in proportion to available energy, from fish to humans.
This is a myth with no basis in scientific research, and has been ever since it was first put to paper in 1798 on the basis of pure speculation and political convenience. Population demographics are much, much more complicated than a single proportional relationship, and this has been proven over and over for three centuries now. If you are continuing to worship the words of a dead man who didn't know what he was talking about over any kind of actual data, you've no leg to stand on in accusing other posters of "ideological activism".
 
Electricity for the poor was an afterthought?
Is. Not was.

Poor people still largely live without reliable electricity.

Let me guess, you didn't think about anybody outside the USA before you posted, did you?
I'm not sure that's still true, though it will depend on how narrowly you define "poor", or "reliable".

As of 2022, per the World Bank's estimate, over 91% of the world's population, including over 51% in sub-Saharan Africa, did have access to electricity. In many countries, that change happened in the last 30 years or so. I witnessed some of it in Morocco: between my two visits in 1998 and 2000, a village where I stayed in the Sous valley got connected to the grid. Now the Sous valley is a densely populated region and I'm sure there were still many people in more remote areas that couldn't dream of electricity in 2000, but as the 2025 most of them too have been connected: since about 2017, the percentage of the country's population with access to electricity has been essentially 100%.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS?locations=MA
 
Two religions are on view in this thread. I propose to caricaturize them a bit. The Fundamentalist Christians and their ilk will accuse me of exaggeration and creating "strawmen." This does not bother me -- I almost cannot post in this thread without having my own views turned into strawman's views that I never thought or said.

Fundamentalist Christianity

Christians have Faith that the World was created for Man. Other species exist only to serve Man. God created plants and trees to serve Man with oxygen. The Fishes of the sea are placed there to feed Man. The Birds of the sky are placed there to entertain Man. The whole Earth is Man's property to do as he wishes. Extinctions of useless species is Good, one of the Great God's many gifts to Man. And God gave Man great Brains to rule the Earth. Man's brain will invent fission and fusion power so that water shortages will never be a concern. Honeybees can be massacred out of existence if they annoy too much: Man will build micro-drones to do the pollination tasks once done by Bees.

The long-term future of the Earth is simply not a concern. Before problems become insolvable the Baby Jesus will return to Earth and Rapture all those who Believe in Him to a Paradise beyond all dreams.

Decades ago a friend of mine summed up the Christian (and post-rational) approach to the Stewardship of Earth sarcastically
Your disposable Earth. Use it once, then throw it away.

As an atheist I reject Christian Fundamentalism. My "religion" has no name, except perhaps Gaianism. It is disappointing that some of the atheists on this Board embrace the tenets of Christian Fundamentalism despite not believing in many of Jehovah's peculiar dogmas.

Gaianism (or Omni-Benevolence)

Here are two poems well known to practitioners of Gaianism:

John Donne said:
No species is an island,
Entire of itself,
Every species is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less.
As well as if a promontory were.
As well as if a manor of thy friend's
Or of thine own were:
Any species's extinction diminishes me,
Because I am involved in the Earth's Life,
And therefore never send to know for which species the extinction bell tolls;
It tolls for thee.
etc.
As an atheist you reject Christian Fundamentalism. That's well and good; but as an infidel I reject all religions, including Gaianism and including the Gaianist genetic fallacy that proposes to dismiss the Christian (and post-rational) approach to the Stewardship of Earth without ever showing it's irrational, on the spurious* grounds that you associate it with Christianity and on the spurious** grounds that it conflicts with John Donne.

The Earth is a rock. Of course it's disposable, same as any other rock. Our only choices are whether to use it once and then throw it away, or to use it not at all and then throw it away. It is going to be thrown away regardless, whether we stick around to see it off or not -- it will become uninhabitable in five billion years when the sun goes all red-giant on its ass, and a lot sooner than that if we don't take extreme geoengineering measures to keep it going until then. So if you care about the survival of fishes and birds and honeybees and the rest of the charismatic megafauna who are the poster children for environmentalism, humans are their only hope. They need us to invent fission and fusion power, so we can get off this rock and take them with us to other stars -- stars that have trillion-year futures.

Preventing the collapse of human civilization is therefore the highest priority, from a strictly ecological point of view. If we ever find ourselves blown back to preindustrial conditions, we're unlikely ever to emerge from them again -- the easy-to-access coal and oil are used up and we aren't jumping straight from wood-burning to fracking, which means never any starships to carry birds to new skies. We only get one chance to use our disposable rock.

(* As Doolittle explained to Bomb#20, "That's all beside the point. The concepts are valid, wherever they originate.")

(** Are your reasons for thinking the extinction of honeybees would make Europe the less also good reasons to think variola's and enterovirus C's extinction would diminish you? Of course we need to know for which species the extinction bell tolls.)
 
Populations grow in proportion to available energy, from fish to humans.
This is a myth with no basis in scientific research, and has been ever since it was first put to paper in 1798 on the basis of pure speculation and political convenience. Population demographics are much, much more complicated than a single proportional relationship, and this has been proven over and over for three centuries now. If you are continuing to worship the words of a dead man who didn't know what he was talking about over any kind of actual data, you've no leg to stand on in accusing other posters of "ideological activism".
As somebody pointed out there are plenty of historical systems that failed for lack of resources. The rise and fall of the Mayans is a good study. Certainly Rome, Rome was resource poor and thrived on trounces of the empire.

Your body requires a minimum of about 1700 calories(energy) a day to maintain body weight. That energy ciomes from food. Going back to the earliest civilizations populations grew based on access to water and agriculture, and domestication of wild animals The 'fertile crescent'.

Wars have been fought over resources. An underlying cause of the Ukraine war is Russia wanting to control Ukrainian wheat. The same reason Hitler wanted Ukraine. The same reason Japan went to war, Jp0an is resource poor. An underlying issue in the Md East Israeli Arab conflict is the Jordan river and water rights.

Life evolves to fill an energy niche, I doubt that is controversial. A species of birds evolved long beaks to access nectar in a plant.

There are ecosystems that evolved around deep sea volcanic vents, black smokers. It was major discovery by the Alvin submersible. Life thriving on chemicals toxic to surface life without light.
Bacteria found in deep mines that live on minerals.

It all cones down to available energy. There are practical limits to food production. It is inescapable reality. Malthus was right. His predictions were put off by scientific agriculture.

It has been understood since the 90s that the great aquifers underlying the mid west 'bread basket' were drawing down with no possibility of replenishment. Ca ag is running out of water.

We are living on borrowed time.
 
You can not single out one isolated cause for anything.
Like applying the overpopulation myth to literally every environmental crisis, and using it as an excuse for misdirecting blame toward the powerless and excusing fatal inaction on every single one?
Yo0u8 are like a theist denying inconvenient scientific facts.
 
I didn't argue that people don't fight over or misuse resources. I argue that population pseudoscience is a poor explanation as to why people fight over and mismanage resources. If you're threatening to kill me over a molybdenum mine I own, you won't change your mind about that because I clarify that I am in a long term homosexual relationship, and thus unlikely to produce children; the problem was never that I had too many children, but because you wanted the money my molybdenum mine was likely to generate, more than you cared about my life.
 
You can not single out one isolated cause for anything.
Like applying the overpopulation myth to literally every environmental crisis, and using it as an excuse for misdirecting blame toward the powerless and excusing fatal inaction on every single one?
Yo0u8 are like a theist denying inconvenient scientific facts.
You have presented no scientific facts. Those come with objective evidence attached, not the say-so of Georgian aristocrats.
 
Life evolves to fill an energy niche, I doubt that is controversial.
Then add evolutionary theory to the list of things you should really study more. Evolution doesn't have purpose or intent. It is the result of changes in gene flow over time and the various factors that effect it. Evolution does not think or reason, and it does not and cannot "fine tune" to maximally use every resource available even if that were somehow an advantageous thing to do. Which of course, it is not, such a system would immediately collapse just as Malthus claimed.

If you look at the inputs and outputs of any living ecosystem you'll find that plenty of energy is "wasted". That is, there is plenty of food left uneaten, plenty of sunlight unphotosynthesized, plenty of water undrunk, plenty of calcium and iron and zinc that don't become bones. And thank god for that, as the energy unused or recycled from one ecological niche is apt to filter on to another, filling in a segment of ever larger natural cycles and ecosystemic relationships.
 
Life evolves to fill an energy niche, I doubt that is controversial.
I think poli done you wrong there, but the wording is sloppy. Life evolves, not “in order to” fill energy niches, but life does tend to evolve in ways that take advantage of energy niches. I think that was what you meant.
Life does that because life tries EVERYTHING and sticks with anything that works for as long as it works, all the while trying everything else whether it works or not.
 
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