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Polls And Surveys - Trump Will Lose In 2020

Sarpedon said:
While his popularity hasn't dropped, despite scandal and stupidity, do you think we are seeing a demoralization among his supporters that may affect turnout?
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His base seems quite happy. Many of them are probably having a grand ole time with his presidency. The problem with hoping his base find political Jesus is that they have pretty much convinced themselves that Trump is great, no matter what he does. Short of banning guns, I don't see the base going anywhere. The question is will turnout among evangelicals be kind to him, and what will Democrat turnout be.
 
I am still not convinced that Trump will lose in 2020. Hillary managed to lose to him. She was a bad candidate, but not uniquely bad.
 
Jolly_Penguin said:
I am still not convinced that Trump will lose in 2020. Hillary managed to lose to him. She was a bad candidate, but not uniquely bad.
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That is a very good point. US Democrats also have a long track record of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory as well.
 
barbos said:
Loren Pechtel said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
High volume trades is a bullshit art that does little but create inflation. If it makes it unprofitable to make money due to rounding errors, then boo fucking hoo.
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Unfortunately, you're throwing out the baby of arbitrage trades in the process.
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That "baby" is ugly and must die
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Parts of the market won't operate without arbitrage traders keeping things in balance. They are what keeps things in sync that are supposed to be in sync.
 
Of interest:

The online polling firm Civiqs has published a new set of state-by-state job-approval ratings for Trump as of August 11, and it shows how the president’s overall standing (a 43 percent approval rating nationally, which happens to match the current RealClearPolitics polling average) might translate into electorate votes. It’s not a pretty picture for the president, to put it mildly.

Civiqs shows the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. If that were to represent how the 2020 elections turn out, Trump would have a booming 119 electoral votes. And it’s not as though he’s on a knife’s edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where he’s doing poorly: He’s underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. And there’s virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trump’s direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just “adults,” so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate.
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Half-Life said:
Has it occurred to you that maybe Trump supporters stopped wearing all the gear because they were getting sick and tired of their lives being threatened by leftist fascists?
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Lots of those at the Sturgis bike rally :rolleyes:
 
jonatha said:
Half-Life said:
Has it occurred to you that maybe Trump supporters stopped wearing all the gear because they were getting sick and tired of their lives being threatened by leftist fascists?
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Lots of those at the Sturgis bike rally :rolleyes:
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Both my older brothers are bikers and leftists. And veterans for that matter. They generally have to keep their political views to themselves at biker events.
 
You are forgetting just how good Dems are at snatching defeat out of jaws of victory. [Patooka beat me to it, damn!]
Also, Alternet is not a good source.
 
Derec said:
You are forgetting just how good Dems are at snatching defeat out of jaws of victory. [Patooka beat me to it, damn!]
Also, Alternet is not a good source.
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And you are forgetting how totally bad Republicans are at actually governing.
 
Derec said:
ZiprHead said:
And you are forgetting how totally bad Republicans are at actually governing.
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Doesn't matter. Dems often find a way to lose anyway. Don't you remember 2004?
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Yes, I do remember. That was the election where Republicans paid veterans to lie about a Vietnam war hero.
 
ZiprHead said:
Derec said:
ZiprHead said:
And you are forgetting how totally bad Republicans are at actually governing.
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Doesn't matter. Dems often find a way to lose anyway. Don't you remember 2004?
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Yes, I do remember. That was the election where Republicans paid veterans to lie about a Vietnam war hero.
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It's not like they can't/won't do something similar again. Trump is the nation's saving grace. Since day one I've been saying he's God's gift to Democrats. An entire armada of Republican swiftboats may not be enough to enable them to retain the Senate or the Whitehouse as long as Trump is the fat orange lying face of the party.
 
Considering how the candidates are attacking each other, I am very concerned that we may be looking at a second term for Trump. Maybe it's my age. Maybe it's due to the heartbreaking experience of voting for George McGovern in 1972, then watching him lose in a landslide to Nixon that makes me feel this way. None of the current candidates are very appealing to me. None of them have the type of charisma that is usually required for an American presidential candidate to be able to defeat an incumbent. I hope I am wrong, but if we nominate someone perceived as too far left, that could make it very difficult to win any of the states that are needed to beat Trump. If we do end up with a second term for Trump and the Democrats take back the Senate and keep the House, I feel confident that impeachment will be in order. Deja vu! This is taking me back to the 70s. :eeka: But, Trump is far more corrupt and harmful than Nixon ever was.
 
Everyone was saying Trump had no chance in 2016. Don't be overconfident. Overconfidence is one of the big reasons Hillary lost. Plenty of potential voters thought she would for sure win so didn't bother to show up and vote for her. Repeating this effect is one of the few ways Trump will win again.
 
southernhybrid said:
I hope I am wrong, but if we nominate someone perceived as too far left, that could make it very difficult to win any of the states that are needed to beat Trump.
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Yang does better than the others in the primary in getting votes from across party lines. Probably because he spun the freedom dividend as a dividend everybody gets and not merely as welfare. Democracy dollars that he supports also has cross party appeal.
 
Jolly_Penguin said:
Everyone was saying Trump had no chance in 2016. Don't be overconfident. Overconfidence is one of the big reasons Hillary lost. Plenty of potential voters thought she would for sure win so didn't bother to show up and vote for her. Repeating this effect is one of the few ways Trump will win again.
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Yep. Totally agree with you and Southernhybrid. Republicans win election after election despite being fewer in number because they are so united and willing to rally behind their guy to achieve their goals.
 
Jolly_Penguin said:
southernhybrid said:
I hope I am wrong, but if we nominate someone perceived as too far left, that could make it very difficult to win any of the states that are needed to beat Trump.
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Yang does better than the others in the primary in getting votes from across party lines. Probably because he spun the freedom dividend as a dividend everybody gets and not merely as welfare. Democracy dollars that he supports also has cross party appeal.
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What a bullshit statement. I don't recall any Democrats calling for a program called Medicare for All Democrats or Public College for All Democrats. You see the Dems divide and conquer statements because of your own bias.
 
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