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Polls of the Presidential Race

lpetrich said:
‘Blood in the water’: Dems get unexpected opening against Trump in Iowa - POLITICO
Since the start of the year, Democrats in Iowa have added about twice as many active voters to their rolls as Republicans, nudging ahead in total registration for the first time in years. The farm economy has been battered by the coronavirus pandemic. And though Trump still holds a small lead in the state, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, he’s now airing TV advertisements there — a tacit acknowledgment that the campaign anticipates a contest.

“We were approaching ‘done’ status — stick a fork in us,” Sue Dvorsky, a former chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party, said of the party’s status after the 2016 election.

Now, she said, “the worm is turning.”

...
On Sunday night, Trump — seemingly frustrated with the tilt of the electoral landscape against him — tweeted, “If I wasn’t constantly harassed for three years by fake and illegal investigations, Russia, Russia, Russia, and the Impeachment Hoax, I’d be up by 25 points on Sleepy Joe and the Do Nothing Democrats. Very unfair, but it is what it is!!!”
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What a big baby. Trump can't keep himself from acting like a big baby, it seems.
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Translation: I’m taking a do-over whether you guys like it or not. And I’m going to keep being president until you guys play fair.
 
Latest Gallup poll.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Four months after hitting a 15-year high, Americans' satisfaction with the way things are going in the U.S. has dropped 25 percentage points to 20%, a level last seen in 2017.

Not good news if you are a GOP president running for re-election. Trump's job approval rating is now only 39% according to Gallup.
144 days til election day. Not much time to turn things around.
 
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/06/tr...oters-fleeing-him-takes-a-huge-jump-pollster/

...
​
According to polling analyst Harry Enten, Donald Trump’s chances of being re-elected in November are growing worse every day as women increasingly say they won’t vote for him.
Writing for CNN, Enten said the president is on the verge of losing the female vote by a “historic margin.”
After reviewing polling over the last 70 years, the pollster wrote, “[Joe] Biden is leading among female registered voters by 59% to 35%, a 25-point margin when the numbers aren’t rounded. That’s a significant increase from his 19-point advantage earlier this year and the 14-point lead Hillary Clinton had in the final 2016 preelection polls of registered voters. Clinton had a 13-point edge with likely female voters.”
...

Since women voters represent 52% of voters, this is a serious problem for Orango the Clown. That works out to 61.38% of voters won't vote for Trump.
 
You always need to be wary of polls that try to assess the popularity of embarrassing leaders.

Lots of people are sufficiently aware of public opinion that they won't admit to supporting a widely reviled leader when asked by a pollster; But what they do in the privacy of a secret ballot is something else again.
 
Real Clear Politics collects together lots of polls. Polls can range widely. CNN is highest at Biden + 14%. IBD/TIPP, Biden at only 3%.
Looking at general polls, we are looking at why polls vary. Deeper investigations can help tell us what the hell is really going on. Women have been abandoning Trump for more than a year. If this survey is correct, it is getting worse for Trump. It looks to me like the gender gap may be putting re-election out of reach of Trump. This will bear watching. Whether this will prove to be a statistical outlier or a dead canary in the political coal mine remains to be seen.
 
bilby said:
You always need to be wary of polls that try to assess the popularity of embarrassing leaders.

Lots of people are sufficiently aware of public opinion that they won't admit to supporting a widely reviled leader when asked by a pollster; But what they do in the privacy of a secret ballot is something else again.
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Beware the symbolic racist. Many will pull the handle for Trump who will not openly admit it. I think of all the times I've heard not so subtle racist comments (white guy to white guy) in the privacy of a moving vehicle or other such secure locale. Oftentimes by individuals I hardly know and occasionally by people I am doing business with.
 
OAN, Trump’s most loyal media ally promised a pro-Trump poll. It didn’t deliver — and then pulled its story. - The Washington Post
CNN’s release of a poll this week showing President Trump trailing former vice president Joe Biden by 14 points nationally clearly rattled the president and his reelection campaign. In short order, Trump tweeted out a memo making various allegations about how and why CNN conducted the poll, each assertion ludicrous and easily debunked. On Wednesday, the campaign escalated its efforts to portray CNN’s poll as unfair, demanding that CNN retract the poll and issue an apology.

CNN’s attorneys, with complete and understandable justification, declined to do so.
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Good that they stood their ground against President Anthony Fremont.

Trump likes Fox News, especially the likes of Sean Hannity, and he also likes One America News.
Trump does watch. It was an OAN report about the protester in Buffalo who was injured by police that prompted Trump to speculate wildly that the elderly man who suffered a head injury had faked his fall in service to a murky network of left-wing anarchists.

...
Early Thursday afternoon, the poll came out. Conducted by Gravis Marketing, a pollster that earns a C in FiveThirtyEight’s ranking of pollsters, it was focused solely on Florida.

It had Trump and Biden tied in the must-win state for Trump, a state Trump won narrowly four years ago.

...
This entire polling effort by OAN is a remarkable, if unintentional, window into how the network works. Its chief executive trumpets a poll that he promises is likely to show Trump doing well. His on-air reporter gins up a thoroughly misleading presentation of results that are far from great for the president. For some reason — but probably exactly that reason — the story and the report get deep-sixed.

After all, Trump’s not going to want to watch that. We don’t want him switching over to Fox, now, do we?
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What a jerk - he watches only far-right news media and then he complains that all the rest of the news media is "biased".

There was a Pew study of how trustworthy different people consider the news media. The people in it could roughly be split into left, center, and right, and the news media likewise split. Like Mother Jones on the left, the New York Times in the center, and Breitbart on the right. Here is who trusted what:
  • Left: left, center
  • Center: center
  • Right: right
So if there is anyone who lives in an ideological bubble, it's right-wingers.
 
Still. I keep a slip of paper I was scribbling on, during the course of watching MSNBC on election eve '16. A U. of Virginia prof predicted an electoral college victory of Hillary over Fat Bastard of 293 to 214. (Must've been some states that were too close to call.) A Princeton prof came on Lawrence O'Donnell's show and said that there was better than a 99% chance of a Hillary win. I went to bed feeling so, so safe & loved. In the morning, switched on the TV. A huge Republican fart had settled over the country. And its name was, phonetically, a fart.
 
Tight polls put GOP on edge in Texas | TheHill
Five House Republicans from the Texas delegation are retiring at the end of the year and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates three of those as either toss-ups or leaning Democratic.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is also up for reelection and will likely face the toughest fight of his career in 2020.

Biden’s campaign says it intends to compete in Texas, where the state Democratic Party has become one of the largest in the nation. Texas’s fast-changing demographics have hastened its move from solidly red state to purple battleground.

...
Texas has added more than 2.5 million people to its voter rolls since 2016. The state does not register voters by party, but many of the new voters are believed to be young people, Latinos, or newcomers from blue states, such as California, Illinois and New York.

“This was the state that helped create George W. Bush’s compassionate conservatism, the Tea Party and the Trump movement, and now all of that could change on a dime to become a new Democratic movement,” said Manny Garcia, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party. “Republicans got lazy and completely missed the wake-up call about the direction things have been headed here. The population growth has made Texas competitive at every level.”
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Some right-wingers have complained about people from populous blue states like California moving into their states -- claiming that these blue-state people are taking their politics with them.

2020 state polls show clear shift toward Democrats since protests began - CNNPolitics
While it's still early and things could change, this Iowa poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., is the latest state survey for either the race for the White House or Senate to show a clear shift toward Democrats since protests began nationwide following the death of George Floyd at the hands of a white police officer.

These state polls in aggregate suggest that the movement toward former Vice President Joe Biden seen in the national polls is funneling down to the state level.

... Crucially, these are demographically distinct states in different regions of the country indicating that Trump is losing ground in a lot of different places.

ll together, it's the latest evidence that Trump cannot count on the electoral college to save him. The leads that Biden is earning right now are well outside any potential polling miscue like the one that occurred on the state level in 2016. The former vice president, simply put, is well ahead of Trump at this time.

ocusing on the Senate specifically, the limited data we have at this point is consistent with the idea that Republican candidates will not be able to hide from Trump's unpopularity. If he continues to have an approval rating in the low 40s nationally, there is a good chance that it will cost the Republicans control of the Senate.
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History says Trump's low approval rating is unlikely to move - CNNPolitics - mostly doing the sort of research that I'd done earlier in this thread.
rump, though, isn't finished quite yet. It is possible for a president's ratings to shift around. Harry Truman saw about a 20-point increase in his net approval rating in the final five months of the 1948 campaign. On the other end, Lyndon Johnson's net approval rating declined by around 15 points in the final months of the 1964 election.

Still, we're only talking about two presidents out of 13 whose net approval rating moved by more than 10 points in the final five months of the campaign. One of those two went in the wrong direction for the president. Trump needs his net approval rating to climb by more than 10 points to reach a positive net approval rating.
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Real Clear Politics on 6-14-2020

Trump is leading Biden in Texas by a mere 1.5%. Texas is definitely in play, a swing state as far as the presidential election is concerned.
It is so very, very exciting to see many of my fellow Texans are waking up and thinking instead of right winged knee jerking for a change.

I need some fireworks. In case Texas flips so I can celebrate this with the enthusiasm it would demand.
 
lpetrich said:
Tight polls put GOP on edge in Texas | TheHill
Five House Republicans from the Texas delegation are retiring at the end of the year and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates three of those as either toss-ups or leaning Democratic.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is also up for reelection and will likely face the toughest fight of his career in 2020.

Biden’s campaign says it intends to compete in Texas, where the state Democratic Party has become one of the largest in the nation. Texas’s fast-changing demographics have hastened its move from solidly red state to purple battleground.

...
Texas has added more than 2.5 million people to its voter rolls since 2016. The state does not register voters by party, but many of the new voters are believed to be young people, Latinos, or newcomers from blue states, such as California, Illinois and New York.

“This was the state that helped create George W. Bush’s compassionate conservatism, the Tea Party and the Trump movement, and now all of that could change on a dime to become a new Democratic movement,” said Manny Garcia, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party. “Republicans got lazy and completely missed the wake-up call about the direction things have been headed here. The population growth has made Texas competitive at every level.”
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Some right-wingers have complained about people from populous blue states like California moving into their states -- claiming that these blue-state people are taking their politics with them.
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Wait.... a few years ago wasn't Texas bragging about people from California moving there, trying to claim it was because of their amazing lack of taxes and stuff? Oh, they were actively recruiting Californians to move. Maybe they got the wrong kind of Californian republicans?
 
Polling in Texas in 2016 also showed a relative tightening between Clinton and Trump, but a good deal of the polls had a lot of undecideds. I saw a Tennessee poll which looked bad for Trump recently, but the 2016 polls polled about the same 10 pt lead, and Trump won by 25 or so points. Polling initially looks bad, but it did in 2016, and I suppose the worst thing in this poll is that despite Trump's Admin having an actual death toll, Trump comfortably is ahead in 15 states.

Trump's 2016 campaign was a train wreck that rolled into Election Day on fire, derailed, and on the verge of detonation. And somehow he still won.
 
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Of the eight latest Biden vs Trump polls, only one show Biden leading by less than 10%. And that one poll has Biden ahead by 9%.
The June polls in Texas, two of them so far, show Trump ahead by 0.5%. Two June polls for Florida. Biden by 3%. Iowa, two June polls, Trump by 0.5%. Arkansas, only one June Poll, Trump by 2%

Smirk!
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
Real Clear Politics on 6-14-2020

Trump is leading Biden in Texas by a mere 1.5%. Texas is definitely in play, a swing state as far as the presidential election is concerned.
It is so very, very exciting to see many of my fellow Texans are waking up and thinking instead of right winged knee jerking for a change.

I need some fireworks. In case Texas flips so I can celebrate this with the enthusiasm it would demand.
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Isn't gunfire the traditional way to celebrate in Texas?
 
hurtinbuckaroo said:
Cheerful Charlie said:
Real Clear Politics on 6-14-2020

Trump is leading Biden in Texas by a mere 1.5%. Texas is definitely in play, a swing state as far as the presidential election is concerned.
It is so very, very exciting to see many of my fellow Texans are waking up and thinking instead of right winged knee jerking for a change.

I need some fireworks. In case Texas flips so I can celebrate this with the enthusiasm it would demand.
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Isn't gunfire the traditional way to celebrate in Texas?
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That's why he needs some truly bitchin' illegal Mexican fireworks, mere gunfire barely raises an eyebrow in the Lone Star State. :hobbyhorse:
 
I live in a heavily Hispanic neighborhood. And around here, they love their fireworks. Christmas Eve and July 4th have some real displays. And a lot of fancy and expensive stuff, not just bottle rockets. Lots of big star burst mortars. Whizzzzzzzzzz! Bang!
 
f**k everybody at the street party/bar/Trump rally/most any other social gathering.

I'm in heart failure, have diabetes, vascular disease, am over 75, and hate everyone who thinks they need to crowd together to have fun in the age of novel covid 19 without masks. ....and I care more about you and your family than do you since I isolate and wear a mask.

You are already there take so a look at your naval 'cause it probably looks similar to that of your mum or grand mum you obviously don't care enough to think of when you do your selfish s**t. Drink up.

More people will read it here than in rants.
 
Above is the reason Trump is suffering poll drop

Good to him. The selfish arse. He really deserves much less support than that of the racists who are clamoring for tickets to show their tiny penises in Tulsa.

Yet there are republicans who, with kaleidoscope eyes, are envisioning a landslide victory - poor delusional shits worth every drip of derision they receive - on the back of the not-to-come boom.

pip.

That was it.

Sorry sheitheds
 
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