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Polls of the Presidential Race

I did find a little bit of information about Georgia's absentee ballots. It was behind a pay wall so I could only read a few lines. It said that due to the high rate of voting absentee, there was an emergency rule passed to allow for counting the absentee votes early. This was referring to the primaries, but I'm going to assume it also applies to the November election, especially since ballot tracking said that my vote was counted. That is all the information I could find, but it wouldn't surprise me if some other states were using similar tactics to make sure that the votes could all be counted within a reasonable period of time.

Most of my friends have already voted absentee and their ballots appeared on the tracking site as counted. I do have one friend who is planning on voting this week. I've asked her to let me know how that goes. I know that even in my small county, the lines were over an hour and a half long yesterday, which was the first day of early voting.
 
Real Clear Politics
National Polls - Biden is up +10/%
Florida Polls - Biden is up +3.7%

538
National Polls, Biden is up by +10.6%
Florida Polls - Biden is up by +4.6%

20 days to go

538
Michigan - Biden is up by +8.0%
Pennsylvania - Biden is up by +7.2%
Wisconsin - Biden is up by +7.7%
Arizona - Biden is up by +3.8%
North Carolina - Biden is up by +3.1%

Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, Biden leads by a small amount, these states are toss ups. Texas, Trump leads by +1.4% leans GOP but Biden could win if Trump keeps screwing up.

538 rates Democrats chances at retaking the Senate at 69%
 
I play XCOM. It's my favourite video game. I wouldn't place too much stock in these percentages. They do have meaning, just not a lot.
 
I play XCOM. It's my favourite video game. I wouldn't place too much stock in these percentages. They do have meaning, just not a lot.
But right now, the polls say the polls have to be off 8 pts in a two person race for Trump to win. That is a huge deviation, for a two way race.

I agree, I see this like watching Golden State v Cleveland, not being happy with a 15 point lead you know can evaporate in 2 minutes. But 8 pts is a pretty sizable advantage and it is trending larger. Nothing is guaranteed especially in 2020.
 
I play XCOM. It's my favourite video game. I wouldn't place too much stock in these percentages. They do have meaning, just not a lot.
But right now, the polls say the polls have to be off 8 pts in a two person race for Trump to win. That is a huge deviation, for a two way race.

I agree, I see this like watching Golden State v Cleveland, not being happy with a 15 point lead you know can evaporate in 2 minutes. But 8 pts is a pretty sizable advantage and it is trending larger. Nothing is guaranteed especially in 2020.


Depends whether we have a fair election or not. As it stands right now, at least a third or so of the nation will believe that it was not, no matter who wins.
 
Meanwhile, the leader of the opposition in Queensland has been reported to the Electoral Commission for possible fundraising illegalities, by her own party.

Can you imagine that from either party in the US?

http://https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-13/lnp-crisis-as-deb-frecklington-referred-to-election-watchdog/12748400

Our election is on October 31. Apparently some elements of the LNP care more about fairness than about winning. Inconceivable!

(I still hope they lose)

From the fucking LNP? Jesus! Meanwhile in NSW our Premier was banging a corrupt politician. And our Deputy Premier modified the tourism tax code so he could make money off his second $2 million property. That and he likes hiring white nationalists

Whenever I think of Queensland politics, I think of Clive Palmer, Pauline Hansen and Joh Bjelke-Petersen. I need to seriously get over that stereotype.
 
Meanwhile, the leader of the opposition in Queensland has been reported to the Electoral Commission for possible fundraising illegalities, by her own party.

Can you imagine that from either party in the US?

::confused:: Certainly. It is specifically the Republican Party which is disgustingly corrupt.

But right now, the polls say the polls have to be off 8 pts in a two person race for Trump to win.

Let's not exaggerate; Cheerfuls' numbers above would allow at most a 7 pt margin. And that completely ignores the effects of any GOP voter suppression or other cheating.
 
Meanwhile, the leader of the opposition in Queensland has been reported to the Electoral Commission for possible fundraising illegalities, by her own party.

Can you imagine that from either party in the US?

http://https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-13/lnp-crisis-as-deb-frecklington-referred-to-election-watchdog/12748400

Our election is on October 31. Apparently some elements of the LNP care more about fairness than about winning. Inconceivable!

(I still hope they lose)

From the fucking LNP? Jesus! Meanwhile in NSW our Premier was banging a corrupt politician. And our Deputy Premier modified the tourism tax code so he could make money off his second $2 million property. That and he likes hiring white nationalists

Whenever I think of Queensland politics, I think of Clive Palmer, Pauline Hansen and Joh Bjelke-Petersen. I need to seriously get over that stereotype.

Well, two of those three are still doing their best to fuck it up for everyone, and I am sure even Joh is preferentially pushing up the daisies on the right over those on the left. But the merger with the Liberals seems to have tempered some of the worst excesses of the Queensland National Party (or perhaps more plausibly, the Fitzgerald Enquiry was responsible; The Nationals no longer see themselves as untouchable).
 
Trump makes appeal to suburban women at rally: 'Will you please like me?' | TheHill
They talk about the suburban women. And somebody said, ‘I don’t know if the suburban woman likes you.’ I said, ‘why?’” he asked the crowd, though he did not clarify to whom he had spoken. “They said they may not like the way you talk, but I’m about law and order, I’m about having you safe, I’m about having your suburban communities, I don’t want to build low-income housing next to your house.”

“Suburban women, they should like me more than anybody here tonight because I ended the regulation that destroyed your neighborhood, I ended the regulation that brought crime to the suburbs, and you’re going to live the American dream,” he added. “I ask you to do me a favor: Suburban women, will you please like me? I saved your damn neighborhood, okay?”

...
However, observers note his remarks of the suburbs typically reflect the neighborhoods as they existed in decades past and not today.

Trump campaign wants Omarosa to pay for nearly $1 million ad campaign: report | TheHill
notes
Trump Campaign Suggests Omarosa Pay for $1 Million in Ad Spending - The New York Times
The Trump campaign has suggested that Omarosa Manigault Newman, a former White House aide, pay for an ad campaign costing nearly $1 million as a “corrective” remedy for her critical comments about President Trump in her 2018 book and in subsequent interviews.

The recommendation was made in a document filed by the Trump campaign from an expert witness last week as part of an ongoing arbitration case; The Times reviewed the document.

Two years ago, Trump Campaign Says It Has Filed Case Against Omarosa Manigault Newman - The New York Times claiming that OMN had violated a nondisclosure agreement by publishing a book about her experiences with Trump.
 
The Memo: Biden landslide creeps into view | TheHill
The Democratic presidential nominee has a lead of around 10 percentage points over President Trump in national polling averages, and he is up across almost all the battleground states.

Trump faces low job approval ratings, bad marks for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and an ever-decreasing number of opportunities to change the direction of the race.

...
No challenger to an incumbent president since Bill Clinton almost 30 years ago has been in such a strong position as Biden with such a short period of time until Election Day.

Still, even Democrats are reluctant to talk out loud about a Biden landslide for fear of jinxing a monumental election or encouraging complacency. Many pundits are also hedging their bets, mindful of the 2016 experience.

Trump campaign official blames Biden lead on 'skewed' polls | TheHill

"Unskew the polls!" demanded Republicans back in 2012 and 2016, and they are demanding it this year also.
 
I've always thought it was a bad idea to release vote counts while voting is still going on. I believe it often influences the turn out in more western states when the results have already been called for more eastern states. It's a big media circus that makes lots of pundits money but it's another way our democracy gets undermined. Maybe not as much now with mail-in and early voting. But it still might make a difference one way or the other.
 
I've always thought it was a bad idea to release vote counts while voting is still going on. I believe it often influences the turn out in more western states when the results have already been called for more eastern states. It's a big media circus that makes lots of pundits money but it's another way our democracy gets undermined. Maybe not as much now with mail-in and early voting. But it still might make a difference one way or the other.
I've always hated it when the vote is called for a given candidate before our polls have even closed... Used to dislike that about the primaries as well when we used to be later in the "season".
 
Thursday will be dueling Town hall meetings with Trump and Biden. October 15th. I wonder how many people will watch Biden's to see if Trump is lying about Biden being senile? Will people asking Trump questions get sharp with his failures? With 18 days to go until election day, these may be very important Meetings that will shut Trump down for good. The ratings will be interesting to see post debate? Will people tune Trump out, because they know he won't say anything they haven't heard before? Will Trump's meeting be a whiny pity party? Will Biden be confident and bold, and move to the progressive side? Or maybe everybody will just tune it all out. I think I may watch Biden. If Biden can fire up the undecideds and Independents, and the people who don't really like him but hate Trump, Biden can go a long way to defeating Trump.
 
Trump may still pull an upset. I mean Biden is essentially Hillary 2.0 considering some things about him the left shouldn't like.

Supported laws that mostly impacted monitory groups: Check
Bad Gun rights history: Check
Tried to overturn Row Vs Wade: Check
 
I think many lefties feel that he has learned and grown on several of those issues, so they don’t feel anywhere near as dire as the alternative - Trump.
 
Trump may still pull an upset. I mean Biden is essentially Hillary 2.0 considering some things about him the left shouldn't like.

Supported laws that mostly impacted monitory groups: Check
Bad Gun rights history: Check
Tried to overturn Row Vs Wade: Check

I think that's a little bit dishonest, not to mention that is was in 1981 that Biden considered allowing the individuals states to decide whether or not to support Roe v. Wade.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/29/us/politics/biden-abortion-rights.html

t was a new era in Washington in 1981, and abortion rights activists were terrified.

With an anti-abortion president, Ronald Reagan, in power and Republicans controlling the Senate for the first time in decades, social conservatives pushed for a constitutional amendment to allow individual states to overturn Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court ruling that had made abortion legal nationwide several years earlier.

The amendment — which the National Abortion Rights Action League called “the most devastating attack yet on abortion rights” — cleared a key hurdle in the Senate Judiciary Committee in March 1982. Support came not only from Republicans but from a 39-year-old, second-term Democrat: Joseph R. Biden Jr.

“I’m probably a victim, or a product, however you want to phrase it, of my background,” Mr. Biden, a Roman Catholic, said at the time. The decision, he said, was “the single most difficult vote I’ve cast as a U.S. senator.”

The bill never made it to the full Senate, and when it came back up the following year, Mr. Biden voted against it. His back-and-forth over abortion would become a hallmark of his political career.

He apparently doesn't feel conflicted about Roe V Wade now, so the fact that he was conflicted about it in 1981 isn't applicable to now.

As far as guns go, perhaps you don't understand that in most of the country there are lots of gun toting liberals. I'm married to one. ( actually he gave up his carry permit several years ago, but he used to carry concealed ) In fact, the last time I went to a gun show, mostly to satisfy my own curiosity, there were a very high number of Black folks there buying and selling guns. Yes. Do you have evidence that Biden doesn't support laws that would promote gun safety, like requiring registration, training and things like that? I really am not aware of Biden's current feelings on guns, but it's wrong to assume that liberals aren't gun owners. They just tend to take gun safety more seriously and they usually support good regulation regarding gun ownership etc.

If you are referring to the laws regarding increasing prison time, the Congressional Black Caucus also supported those laws. I would call those laws wrong, but I seriously doubt that anyone realized that they would lead to a huge increase in the incarceration of Black men. Hindsight is always 20/20.. Those who supported the laws at that time have come to accept that they made a mistake.

But, the important thing is that most open minded, intelligent people do tend to change and learn from their mistakes. I feel that Biden is an example of this, while Trump has never learned or even admitted his mistakes. Biden didn't always support gay marriage but he came out in support of it before many other Democrats did. As I said, decent people will grow and learn as time goes on.

And, in this particular election, it's not so much about being enthusiastic about Biden, as it is ridding the country of the most incompetent, corrupt, autocratic president in our life times, if not in the history of the country. If people expect purity, then they are idiots. There will never be a perfect candidate. There will always be times that a decent person has to vote for someone who they don't fully support. I've been voting since I turned 21. The voting age was 21 when I was 18, and there have been only a couple of times that I was enthusiastic about the person who got my vote.

I've known people who voted third party last time because, "we don't like Hillary". I really wanted to smack some sense into them, and I hope they have learned their lesson.

If people who feel Biden isn't far left enough for them fail to vote or vote third party out of spite, then they are harming themselves and others. Better to get part of what you want, then have everything important to you taken away.
 
Trump may still pull an upset. I mean Biden is essentially Hillary 2.0 considering some things about him the left shouldn't like.

Supported laws that mostly impacted monitory groups: Check
Bad Gun rights history: Check
Tried to overturn Row Vs Wade: Check
Biden has two things going for him... he isn't Hillary Clinton, he's an old white guy. A bonus third is he didn't name loaf of white bread to be the VP candidate. People think Biden isn't exciting? How about Tim Kaine?!

Regardless, we are an ice age from the election it seems. We already have long lines waiting to vote early! And absentee ballots are late in mailing in Summit County, Ohio (Akron... not Canton... that is Stark County).
 
Meanwhile, the special election in Georgia is getting really weird. It seems impossible for the Dem to win the jungle primary, but that really is the only way it can happen, but he is leading in the low to mid 40s.
 
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