Polls of the Presidential Race

[SLD]

Four years ago today: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cli...V8k3DU45qksvFanZxK0DQMOWcdcASRXOqy08KPu6sfSkI

Clinton opens a 12 point lead. Yeah, polls at this point are useless.

Okay, so if we accept your apparent premise that all polls are useless, what is the basis for Trump actually pulling this one out of his ass? We've already covered the "surging stock market."

It’s always the economy. If the economy recovers, even if it is not as good as it was before, the incumbent will generally win. Granted Trump may be the anomaly. But frankly, let’s face it, Biden isn’t exactly the most inspirational candidate. I don’t see him motivating people to come out and vote for him. Trump supporters love him. They make all sorts of excuses for him. He is a fucking god to them, and I believe they will show up at the polls In droves to help him beat Biden. Biden is counting on Trump’s negatives to draw people to vote for him, and I just don’t see that as enough for him to win.

But I’d love to be proved wrong.

SLD

 

[Ford]

Four years ago today: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cli...V8k3DU45qksvFanZxK0DQMOWcdcASRXOqy08KPu6sfSkI

Clinton opens a 12 point lead. Yeah, polls at this point are useless.

Okay, so if we accept your apparent premise that all polls are useless, what is the basis for Trump actually pulling this one out of his ass? We've already covered the "surging stock market."

It’s always the economy. If the economy recovers, even if it is not as good as it was before, the incumbent will generally win. Granted Trump may be the anomaly. But frankly, let’s face it, Biden isn’t exactly the most inspirational candidate. I don’t see him motivating people to come out and vote for him. Trump supporters love him. They make all sorts of excuses for him. He is a fucking god to them, and I believe they will show up at the polls In droves to help him beat Biden. Biden is counting on Trump’s negatives to draw people to vote for him, and I just don’t see that as enough for him to win.

But I’d love to be proved wrong.

SLD

So you're pinning your hopes on something which is just shy of impossible: the economy recovering in just a few short months. This assumes that the surge in Corona Virus cases that's currently putting the brakes on even red states' efforts to "reopen the economy" ends more or less exactly now. Even more absurd, it assumes that Trump will somehow stop putting his bone-spurred foot in his mouth on an almost daily basis, will dutifully hand his twitter account over to a trained, savvy social media manager, and former staffers will stop coming out with books and media appearances essentially calling him a complete fucking idiot.

As far as Biden goes, you're woefully underestimating him, which I'm sure his campaign is more than happy to have you (and others) do. You may not find him exciting, but Democratic voters decided - before the virus came along and wrecked the oh-so-important economy - that they wanted him as their nominee by a wide margin. Given a lineup of more progressive or younger or more diverse candidates, it wasn't a close call. They already have proven that they'll show up to vote for Joe. Will Trump's base change their minds? Of course not, but if - as is almost certain to happen - the lives of average Americans are being battered by an ongoing epidemic and economic hardship come November, those red hats are simply going to be outnumbered by Democrats and frustrated independents.

Hell, even Fox News is beginning to get tired of Trump's bullshit.

 

[hurtinbuckaroo]

Four years ago today: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cli...V8k3DU45qksvFanZxK0DQMOWcdcASRXOqy08KPu6sfSkI

Clinton opens a 12 point lead. Yeah, polls at this point are useless.

Okay, so if we accept your apparent premise that all polls are useless, what is the basis for Trump actually pulling this one out of his ass? We've already covered the "surging stock market."

It’s always the economy. If the economy recovers, even if it is not as good as it was before, the incumbent will generally win. Granted Trump may be the anomaly. But frankly, let’s face it, Biden isn’t exactly the most inspirational candidate. I don’t see him motivating people to come out and vote for him. Trump supporters love him. They make all sorts of excuses for him. He is a fucking god to them, and I believe they will show up at the polls In droves to help him beat Biden. Biden is counting on Trump’s negatives to draw people to vote for him, and I just don’t see that as enough for him to win.

But I’d love to be proved wrong.

SLD

Multiple states have had record turnout for primaries , even when people have had to vote in person, but you don’t see people coming out to vote for Biden. See an ophthalmologist.

Meanwhile, “fucking God” couldn’t even half-fill an arena for his first Nazi rally.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Just curious, here's my own informal unscientific poll. Three candidates, which one do you prefer:

1. An old rich white man with mental deterioration and credible accusations of sexual inappropriate behavior.
2. An old rich white man with mental deterioration and credible accusations of sexual inappropriate behavior.
3. A woman with a PhD.

 

[lpetrich]

Just curious, here's my own informal unscientific poll. Three candidates, which one do you prefer:

1. An old rich white man with mental deterioration and credible accusations of sexual inappropriate behavior.
2. An old rich white man with mental deterioration and credible accusations of sexual inappropriate behavior.
3. A woman with a PhD.

As if Donald Trump and Joe Biden are exactly alike. The third one is, I'm guessing, Libertarian Presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen.

Reminds me of the old joke that Libertarians are Republicans who smoke pot.

 

[southernhybrid]

Just curious, here's my own informal unscientific poll. Three candidates, which one do you prefer:

1. An old rich white man with mental deterioration and credible accusations of sexual inappropriate behavior.
2. An old rich white man with mental deterioration and credible accusations of sexual inappropriate behavior.
3. A woman with a PhD.

Nuf' said.

 

[SLD]

It’s always the economy. If the economy recovers, even if it is not as good as it was before, the incumbent will generally win. Granted Trump may be the anomaly. But frankly, let’s face it, Biden isn’t exactly the most inspirational candidate. I don’t see him motivating people to come out and vote for him. Trump supporters love him. They make all sorts of excuses for him. He is a fucking god to them, and I believe they will show up at the polls In droves to help him beat Biden. Biden is counting on Trump’s negatives to draw people to vote for him, and I just don’t see that as enough for him to win.

But I’d love to be proved wrong.

SLD

So you're pinning your hopes on something which is just shy of impossible: the economy recovering in just a few short months. This assumes that the surge in Corona Virus cases that's currently putting the brakes on even red states' efforts to "reopen the economy" ends more or less exactly now. Even more absurd, it assumes that Trump will somehow stop putting his bone-spurred foot in his mouth on an almost daily basis, will dutifully hand his twitter account over to a trained, savvy social media manager, and former staffers will stop coming out with books and media appearances essentially calling him a complete fucking idiot.

As far as Biden goes, you're woefully underestimating him, which I'm sure his campaign is more than happy to have you (and others) do. You may not find him exciting, but Democratic voters decided - before the virus came along and wrecked the oh-so-important economy - that they wanted him as their nominee by a wide margin. Given a lineup of more progressive or younger or more diverse candidates, it wasn't a close call. They already have proven that they'll show up to vote for Joe. Will Trump's base change their minds? Of course not, but if - as is almost certain to happen - the lives of average Americans are being battered by an ongoing epidemic and economic hardship come November, those red hats are simply going to be outnumbered by Democrats and frustrated independents.

Hell, even Fox News is beginning to get tired of Trump's bullshit.

Well, I am not hoping for Trump’s win. I’m hoping you are right. I’m just not particularly optimistic. I do think the economy will continue to rebound and that is likely to help Trump. But you could be right, the economy could indeed slip into a deeper recession. I don’t want that though. I’d like people to realize that Trump is Putin’s bitch and a despicable excuse for a human being, much less President. Regardless of the economy. But again, it’s the economy, stupid.

 

[SLD]

Just curious, here's my own informal unscientific poll. Three candidates, which one do you prefer:

1. An old rich white man with mental deterioration and credible accusations of sexual inappropriate behavior.
2. An old rich white man with mental deterioration and credible accusations of sexual inappropriate behavior.
3. A woman with a PhD.

As if Donald Trump and Joe Biden are exactly alike. The third one is, I'm guessing, Libertarian Presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen.

Reminds me of the old joke that Libertarians are Republicans who smoke pot.

Yes, but it illustrates the problem. Biden isn’t seen by many as a viable alternative. The base isn’t motivated to show up and vote for him the way Trump’s base is. They’ll vote Green or Libertarian or not show up at all to punish the Dems for nominating another centrist Democrat. And Trump will eek out a victory, probably closer this time, more of a split in the popular vote than with HRC even.

SLD

 

[Harry Bosch]

Just curious, here's my own informal unscientific poll. Three candidates, which one do you prefer:

1. An old rich white man with mental deterioration and credible accusations of sexual inappropriate behavior.
2. An old rich white man with mental deterioration and credible accusations of sexual inappropriate behavior.
3. A woman with a PhD.

As if Donald Trump and Joe Biden are exactly alike. The third one is, I'm guessing, Libertarian Presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen.

Reminds me of the old joke that Libertarians are Republicans who smoke pot.

Yes, but it illustrates the problem. Biden isn’t seen by many as a viable alternative. The base isn’t motivated to show up and vote for him the way Trump’s base is. They’ll vote Green or Libertarian or not show up at all to punish the Dems for nominating another centrist Democrat. And Trump will eek out a victory, probably closer this time, more of a split in the popular vote than with HRC even.

SLD

That's an odd take. The democrats are the ones who nominated Biden! He got by far the most amount of votes. Are you saying that they are inside mad at themselves for voting for Biden? Or are you saying that the democratic base are the people who weren't motivated to vote in the primary?

 

[Harry Bosch]

Just curious, here's my own informal unscientific poll. Three candidates, which one do you prefer:

1. An old rich white man with mental deterioration and credible accusations of sexual inappropriate behavior.
2. An old rich white man with mental deterioration and credible accusations of sexual inappropriate behavior.
3. A woman with a PhD.

As if Donald Trump and Joe Biden are exactly alike. The third one is, I'm guessing, Libertarian Presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen.

Reminds me of the old joke that Libertarians are Republicans who smoke pot.

Yea, they aren't alike in the least! There also isn't a credible accusation of sexual inappropriate behavior against Biden.

 

[Testy Calibrate]

Just curious, here's my own informal unscientific poll. Three candidates, which one do you prefer:

1. An old rich white man with mental deterioration and credible accusations of sexual inappropriate behavior.
2. An old rich white man with mental deterioration and credible accusations of sexual inappropriate behavior.
3. A woman with a PhD.

As if Donald Trump and Joe Biden are exactly alike. The third one is, I'm guessing, Libertarian Presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen.

Reminds me of the old joke that Libertarians are Republicans who smoke pot.

Yea, they aren't alike in the least! There also isn't a credible accusation of sexual inappropriate behavior against Biden.

This is true. But there are actually other reasons to at least be happy with a biden presidency besides just that he isn't a sexual predator like trump. Biden is also not as narcissistic as Trump so he will be able to both appoint and listen to experts. For what that is worth.

 

[Patooka]

Yes, but it illustrates the problem. Biden isn’t seen by many as a viable alternative. The base isn’t motivated to show up and vote for him the way Trump’s base is. They’ll vote Green or Libertarian or not show up at all to punish the Dems for nominating another centrist Democrat. And Trump will eek out a victory, probably closer this time, more of a split in the popular vote than with HRC even.

SLD

That's an odd take. The democrats are the ones who nominated Biden! He got by far the most amount of votes. Are you saying that they are inside mad at themselves for voting for Biden? Or are you saying that the democratic base are the people who weren't motivated to vote in the primary?

A better argument is that the majority of Americans consistently vote "neither" in every Presidential election and Democrats are giving apathy another win this year by having Biden as their candidate.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Yes, but it illustrates the problem. Biden isn’t seen by many as a viable alternative. The base isn’t motivated to show up and vote for him the way Trump’s base is. They’ll vote Green or Libertarian or not show up at all to punish the Dems for nominating another centrist Democrat. And Trump will eek out a victory, probably closer this time, more of a split in the popular vote than with HRC even.

SLD

That's an odd take. The democrats are the ones who nominated Biden! He got by far the most amount of votes. Are you saying that they are inside mad at themselves for voting for Biden? Or are you saying that the democratic base are the people who weren't motivated to vote in the primary?

A better argument is that the majority of Americans consistently vote "neither" in every Presidential election and Democrats are giving apathy another win this year by having Biden as their candidate.

Well, there was a wide spectrum of democrats who ran in the primaries this year. If these "neither's" weren't motivated by someone, then I can't help them. Democrats need to focus on people who will vote. Not those who may vote.

 

[fromderinside]

Think Bayes

 

[Patooka]

A better argument is that the majority of Americans consistently vote "neither" in every Presidential election and Democrats are giving apathy another win this year by having Biden as their candidate.

Well, there was a wide spectrum of democrats who ran in the primaries this year. If these "neither's" weren't motivated by someone, then I can't help them. Democrats need to focus on people who will vote. Not those who may vote.

I believe the exact opposite. People who will vote have already made their minds up. Preaching to the choir comes to mind. People who may vote are open to arguments. And even prominent Republicans agree elections are more favourable to Democrats when more people are voting so it's in their interest to influence undecided voters. Every other Democratic nominee had a motivated base who was willing to engage and promote their candidate. Biden's supporters are the perfect ad for Volvo.

 

[Harry Bosch]

A better argument is that the majority of Americans consistently vote "neither" in every Presidential election and Democrats are giving apathy another win this year by having Biden as their candidate.

Well, there was a wide spectrum of democrats who ran in the primaries this year. If these "neither's" weren't motivated by someone, then I can't help them. Democrats need to focus on people who will vote. Not those who may vote.

I believe the exact opposite. People who will vote have already made their minds up. Preaching to the choir comes to mind. People who may vote are open to arguments. And even prominent Republicans agree elections are more favourable to Democrats when more people are voting so it's in their interest to influence undecided voters. Every other Democratic nominee had a motivated base who was willing to engage and promote their candidate. Biden's supporters are the perfect ad for Volvo.

So are you honestly suggesting that the dems shouldn't pick the nominee with the most votes or delegates? We should pick the person with the most "motivated base"? If these guys have such a motivated base, why didn't more of their base voting for them? Regardless, if we disregard votes, how do we determine who has the most "motivated base"?

 

[SLD]

I believe the exact opposite. People who will vote have already made their minds up. Preaching to the choir comes to mind. People who may vote are open to arguments. And even prominent Republicans agree elections are more favourable to Democrats when more people are voting so it's in their interest to influence undecided voters. Every other Democratic nominee had a motivated base who was willing to engage and promote their candidate. Biden's supporters are the perfect ad for Volvo.

So are you honestly suggesting that the dems shouldn't pick the nominee with the most votes or delegates? We should pick the person with the most "motivated base"? If these guys have such a motivated base, why didn't more of their base voting for them? Regardless, if we disregard votes, how do we determine who has the most "motivated base"?

Harry, you raise some good points. In answer to your question, I really think we need to return to an older style of conventions for nominations. We should elect uncommitted delegates, who then select a nominee. Granted a lot of smoke filled room type deals weren’t exactly ideally Democratic. But we actually got decent people nominated from both parties. Trump would never have been the candidate of the Republicans in 2016. The extremes were tempered in such styles of nominations. Bush instead of Reagan 40 years ago would have massively changed the course of history for the better. Reagan was the first of the populist presidents. And he started our slide towards trump and autocracy. I can live with conservatives like Eisenhower, even if I disagree. I suspect conservatives could accept JFK and yet disagree. Biden would likely have benefited from such a system decades ago. 2000 or 04?

But back to the topic at hand. Will the polls hold and see Biden win? Again, I remain skeptical, but somewhat hopeful, that will happen. I recall the 2000 election, which Gore should have won, but for a leftist populist Ralph Nader refusing to allow him Florida. Gore, HRC, Romney, and even Kerry just couldn’t pull off a win because the left or right base wouldn’t support them.

I’m also concerned that Republican vote suppression in certain swing states will make a difference. As well as other dirty tricks by Trump.

 

[Patooka]

I believe the exact opposite. People who will vote have already made their minds up. Preaching to the choir comes to mind. People who may vote are open to arguments. And even prominent Republicans agree elections are more favourable to Democrats when more people are voting so it's in their interest to influence undecided voters. Every other Democratic nominee had a motivated base who was willing to engage and promote their candidate. Biden's supporters are the perfect ad for Volvo.

So are you honestly suggesting that the dems shouldn't pick the nominee with the most votes or delegates?

I'm saying the candidate that gets the most votes during the primaries doesn't necessarily translate to the best candidate for the general election. For either party.

We should pick the person with the most "motivated base"?

No, that's about as subjective a decision one can have. I wouldn't even begin to guess who has the most motivated base or how to determine it. I will say I think Biden is the most uninspiring choice the Democrats had and I suspect I am not alone or even in the minority in that sentiment. He also got the most delegates. Those two statements don't have to be mutually exclusive.

If these guys have such a motivated base, why didn't more of their base voting for them?

Preconceived opinions by pundits in the media is a big thumb on the scales for starters. The inequality of campaign resources between candidates would be another consideration. I'd also reiterate what's favourable in a primary doesn't always translate to favourable in a general election.

Regardless, if we disregard votes, how do we determine who has the most "motivated base"?

The votes should not be disregarded. Let's be very clear; I live in a country where we have only once in history had a say in who our Head of State should be and not a single Prime Minister in over the last decade running for election was ever voted in prior to reelection. A democratic process where the average person has at least some measure of control is very appealing to me. I'm not even saying that the system needs to be revised so candidates like Biden are less likely to win; that's replacing dog shit with cow shit and calling it progress.

What I am saying is that I think it's a mistake to make Biden the Democratic candidate for this election. I think the main reason is his lack of appeal. I also think the Democratic leadership don't feel that's a problem and aren't even making an effort to address it. So basically the campaign will be an exact replica of Clinton's 2016 and Kerry's 2004 campaigns that can be summarized as "I'm not the other guy - that's all I've got". I'm aware that I'm an outsider looking in on all this, but all I can give is my opinion and why I came to that opinion. I don't have a solution to it, I can't even say this needs to be fixed. If the Democratic party wants to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory that's their choice. I hope I'm wrong; I suspect I'm not.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I'm saying the candidate that gets the most votes during the primaries doesn't necessarily translate to the best candidate for the general election. For either party.

We should pick the person with the most "motivated base"?

No, that's about as subjective a decision one can have. I wouldn't even begin to guess who has the most motivated base or how to determine it. I will say I think Biden is the most uninspiring choice the Democrats had and I suspect I am not alone or even in the minority in that sentiment. He also got the most delegates. Those two statements don't have to be mutually exclusive.

If these guys have such a motivated base, why didn't more of their base voting for them?

Preconceived opinions by pundits in the media is a big thumb on the scales for starters. The inequality of campaign resources between candidates would be another consideration. I'd also reiterate what's favourable in a primary doesn't always translate to favourable in a general election.

Regardless, if we disregard votes, how do we determine who has the most "motivated base"?

The votes should not be disregarded. Let's be very clear; I live in a country where we have only once in history had a say in who our Head of State should be and not a single Prime Minister in over the last decade running for election was ever voted in prior to reelection. A democratic process where the average person has at least some measure of control is very appealing to me. I'm not even saying that the system needs to be revised so candidates like Biden are less likely to win; that's replacing dog shit with cow shit and calling it progress.

What I am saying is that I think it's a mistake to make Biden the Democratic candidate for this election. I think the main reason is his lack of appeal. I also think the Democratic leadership don't feel that's a problem and aren't even making an effort to address it. So basically the campaign will be an exact replica of Clinton's 2016 and Kerry's 2004 campaigns that can be summarized as "I'm not the other guy - that's all I've got". I'm aware that I'm an outsider looking in on all this, but all I can give is my opinion and why I came to that opinion. I don't have a solution to it, I can't even say this needs to be fixed. If the Democratic party wants to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory that's their choice. I hope I'm wrong; I suspect I'm not.

Biden wasn't my first choice either. But I'm not in favor of dismissing the majority of voters by overthrowing Biden to throw in my candidate. If we ignore the will of the majority in our own party, we will for sure lose in the general.

 

[Patooka]

Biden wasn't my first choice either. But I'm not in favor of dismissing the majority of voters by overthrowing Biden to throw in my candidate. If we ignore the will of the majority in our own party, we will for sure lose in the general.

That's a good point, and you're right about not ignoring the majority of other Democrats. I'd point out Biden didn't become popular in the primary until choices were taken away from the ballot however. I also freely admit my arguments are purely speculative and can't be proven one way or the other. I just can't help but think that the values most closely affiliated with Democrats (Healthcare, a fairer tax code, education etc) could be better championed by someone/almost anyone else, and Biden doesn't have anywhere near enough charisma/star appeal to offset that. I guess what I'm saying is whilst I'm convinced Biden is the preferable candidate over Trump, I could understand why people would want to sit this election out. And voter apathy always favours Republicans in an election.