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Polls of the Presidential Race

Well, right now, Biden has a 12 point lead over Trump in the Harvard/Harris poll, and about a 10 point lead in FiveThirtyEight's National polling average, and that's with him not even doing much of any campaigning during any of this.

It seems to me his team should simply keep him quiet and let Trump keep hanging himself.
 
Oo! Oo! Oo!

Real Clear Politics

Biden is up by 9.8%. I wonder what poor sucker has to convey that bad news to Trumpo The Clown. Just shy of a double digit lead.
 
Well, right now, Biden has a 12 point lead over Trump in the Harvard/Harris poll, and about a 10 point lead in FiveThirtyEight's National polling average, and that's with him not even doing much of any campaigning during any of this.

It seems to me his team should simply keep him quiet and let Trump keep hanging himself.
There's still the debate stage to worry about.

I believe likewise that the Biden camp should simply refuse any and all debates. Or, at the very least, to only conduct them via Zoom.

Debating Trump only legitimizes his presidency and there is nothing that legitimizes his presidency.
 
I believe likewise that the Biden camp should simply refuse any and all debates. Or, at the very least, to only conduct them via Zoom.

Debating Trump only legitimizes his presidency and there is nothing that legitimizes his presidency.

Perhaps! I can't see either of the old fools agreeing to that, though.
 
I believe likewise that the Biden camp should simply refuse any and all debates. Or, at the very least, to only conduct them via Zoom.

Debating Trump only legitimizes his presidency and there is nothing that legitimizes his presidency.

Perhaps! I can't see either of the old fools agreeing to that, though.

It would be the boldest move, to be sure, but I wouldn't discount it on Biden's behalf. It's also likely something Trump may pull, but to do so it would have to be Biden who first proposes a debate for Trump to ignore. That's why I believe Biden should simply do nothing provocative and instead let Trump call all of the opening moves.

Trump's only "power" is in bullying. If you don't engage it, he scrambles harder and tries to double down on it, so that you fall into his narrative.
 
Both Trump and Biden have agreed to three debates. If I was Biden, I would start the debate by reminding Trump he is going to be heavily fact checked by the media, and would be well advised to forgo his usual bald faced lying. Maybe even start that up a few days early, challenging the press to not get discouraged by the sheer number of lies Trump can mewl out in any give time. Make a big joke out of all of this.
 
Both Trump and Biden have agreed to three debates.

Damn. I missed that announcement. Ah well. A boy can dream.

ETA: Whadyaknow. I sort of called it, if only a few days late:

As CNN previously reported, at one point Trump considered boycotting the debates, but his thinking about them has changed as the campaign has been forced to shift because of the coronavirus pandemic. One source who talks to the President on a regular basis told CNN that Trump really wants to debate Biden because he believes he can highlight the former vice president's weaknesses, especially as they play into the campaign's overt argument that Biden isn't mentally fit to be president. In addition to asking for the commission to host more debates, the campaign is interested in having a say in picking the moderators.

So now he's pushing for even more debates thinking it will give him more time to trip Biden up.
 
So now he's pushing for even more debates thinking it will give him more time to trip Biden up.
Five years.
Biden's people have had half a decade to examine Trump's tactics, which are bullying and bullshit, and craft a response to them. Maybe TWO responses, if one doesn't seem to be working after thge first debate.
Trump cannot think on his feet or adapt, he'll just double down with the bullshit, crafting his debate directly into whatever Biden does....
 
So now he's pushing for even more debates thinking it will give him more time to trip Biden up.
Five years.
Biden's people have had half a decade to examine Trump's tactics, which are bullying and bullshit, and craft a response to them. Maybe TWO responses, if one doesn't seem to be working after thge first debate.
Trump cannot think on his feet or adapt, he'll just double down with the bullshit, crafting his debate directly into whatever Biden does....



Biden has the easiest campaign of any Presidential candidate in recent memory. Just sit back and wait for Trump to implode. It's working very well so far.
 
So now he's pushing for even more debates thinking it will give him more time to trip Biden up.
Five years.
Biden's people have had half a decade to examine Trump's tactics, which are bullying and bullshit, and craft a response to them. Maybe TWO responses, if one doesn't seem to be working after thge first debate.
Trump cannot think on his feet or adapt, he'll just double down with the bullshit, crafting his debate directly into whatever Biden does....



Biden has the easiest campaign of any Presidential candidate in recent memory. Just sit back and wait for Trump to implode. It's working very well so far.

Yes it is working a treat atm. But Creepy can't keep hiding in his cellar until election day. He does need to do some campaigning! Will he be able to remember exactly what office he's actually running for?
 
I still find it incredible that out of 330 million people, these two presidential candidates are the best America can do.
 
Polls for June 26 - 132 days to election day.

RCP Biden is up 10.2%

538 Biden is up by 10.0% Florida, Biden is up 7.6%
Iowa Trump is up by 0.1%
Texas Trump is up by 0.4%
Ohio Biden leads by 3.2%

Nationally, Biden is now up by double digits. The latest big national poll was Sienna College/New York Times poll. Biden is ahead by 14%.
 
I still find it incredible that out of 330 million people, these two presidential candidates are the best America can do.

But it's not out of 330 million people.

The US President has to be over 35, which eliminates half of the population. The President also has to be a Natural Born Citizen; That lowers the pool still further.

Most importantly, nobody can be a serious candidate for the presidency unless they have been politically active for most of their adult life; or are famous; or are wealthy; or ideally all three.

The first of these requirements is the real kicker; It denies any chance at the presidency to anyone who is well qualified in a field other than politics or law (or perhaps economics).

Engineers, Physicists, Medical Doctors, Tradespeople, etc., etc., aren't usually able to become experts in their chosen field and be sufficiently politically active to be considered a viable choice for presidential (or even congressional) candidacy - there's simply not enough time in life to climb both greasy poles. It takes a long time to become 'presidential material' in the eyes of the two major parties - the youngest presidents have been eight years older than the lower limit set by the constitution, and there's a reason for that. Shit, the two youngest were Teddy Roosevelt and JFK; TR became President via the VP slot due to McKinley being assassinated; And JFK was from a political dynasty, with relatives who were able to get him a head start.

Indeed, political dynasties are common in supposedly representative democracies, and that's a feature, not a bug, from the perspective of those who founded and have since run such systems. The idea that anyone could aspire to the top job is a lie - it's somewhat easier for an unexpected candidate to get in as POTUS or PM than it is for them to become king of a monarchy; But still the top jobs are specifically chosen from an elite group that doesn't include plumbers, electricians, welders, or bricklayers - unless they come up through the trades union movement, in which case they get chosen for their political ability within that movement, not their skill as tradespeople.

Whether this process of ensuring that most people never get any chance of political office is a good or a bad thing is up for debate; But that such a process exists, and does effectively reduce the pool of potential candidates to at most a few thousand (and likely only a few hundred) individuals, is not a matter of opinion, but simply one of observation.
 
I still find it incredible that out of 330 million people, these two presidential candidates are the best America can do.

But it's not out of 330 million people.

The US President has to be over 35, which eliminates half of the population. The President also has to be a Natural Born Citizen; That lowers the pool still further.

Most importantly, nobody can be a serious candidate for the presidency unless they have been politically active for most of their adult life; or are famous; or are wealthy; or ideally all three. ...It takes a long time to become 'presidential material' in the eyes of the two major parties -

That last bit was true for both parties up until 2016. Yet the rise of Trump was not an isolated phenomenon. It is the culmination of a decades long process that was marked by Reagan's inaugural "government is not the solution to your problems, government IS the problem" speech.

Biden is not particularly exciting as a candidate. He gaffes, grins, gives inappropriate shoulder massages, but for his entire life has been a public servant. That last part is bad according to the modern GOP. Government itself is bad, and anyone (except their own long-serving political animals, of course) who dedicates their life to a career in government is therefore wholly incapable of running that which must be destroyed at all costs...before it's soaked for all the money possible.

Trump's qualifications are not that he's allegedly rich and famous, but that he's the pinnacle of Republican ideals as of late. A grifter who will accomplish their goal of making a representative government useless while private industry finally seizes the last remaining levers of power. Is it going to be ugly? Sure, but in order to make an omelette you've sometimes got to destroy a republic.

It wasn't always this way. The first President I remember was Nixon, and for all his many faults, he was at his core a public servant. A patriot, even. His misdeeds were premised on an ends justify the means philosophy, but the end was to make the country better. Trump's end is utterly self-serving. He couldn't give a fuck about the country except as it serves him, and that has become the qualification that makes him worthy of the Presidency in the eyes of modern Republicans. He is the means to their end, and has performed spectacularly. The state department is gutted. The justice department is hopelessly corrupted. Most of his cabinet secretaries are people explicitly hired to destroy the agencies which they head.

Is Biden the best the Democrats could do? Not by a long shot. Yet I have to believe that at his core, "Sleepy Joe" is a dedicated public servant who feels his policies are what's best for the country, and not necessarily himself. Is he a creature of Washington? Yep. Is he an insider? Yep. Is he the presumptive nominee because he's just outlasted and outmaneuvered everyone else? Sure. Yet at the end of the day, he's actually qualified to do the job he's applying for. If elected, he will do at best a passable job. Trump? His party embraces the fact that he's wholly unqualified. That's precisely why they like him so much.
 
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