Polls of the Presidential Race

[Jimmy Higgins]

One chart that indicates why Trump should be fired. Not many first world nations (any), with a chart that pathetic in the face of a pandemic.

 

[SLD]

Have a look at the boy on left's look of disgust. This is Groper Joe in what he does best...........molest females, the younger the better!

https://www.facebook.com/ed.montalvo.12/posts/355030968840802

Jesus fucking Christ, Angelo!!! you can’t be that fuckin’ stupid can you? Who do you think the people in that photo are? Who is that little girl? And why are they all so sad? The answer is obvious to anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of Biden and why he didn’t run for President in 2016.

I am just stunned at the level of stupidity in Trump supporters who grasp at photos like this to support their idiotic candidate.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Have a look at the boy on left's look of disgust. This is Groper Joe in what he does best...........molest females, the younger the better!

https://www.facebook.com/ed.montalvo.12/posts/355030968840802

Jesus fucking Christ, Angelo!!! you can’t be that fuckin’ stupid can you? Who do you think the people in that photo are? Who is that little girl? And why are they all so sad? The answer is obvious to anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of Biden and why he didn’t run for President in 2016.

I am just stunned at the level of stupidity in Trump supporters who grasp at photos like this to support their idiotic candidate.

We shouldn't judge angelo just because he likes posting photos of people at a funeral, like this one for the VP Biden's son who died of brain cancer.

We should let angelo crassly mock away at grieving people without judgment. I wonder if angelo can share any photos of Biden mourning when burying his wife and daughter back in the 70s. That would be so angelo. Then maybe we could share some personal photos of our own grieving at funerals, and angelo can make fun of those. But it wouldn't be fair without angelo sharing pictures of himself when saying goodbye to their loved ones.

I'm smelling an awesome Freethought and Humor thread!

 

[TV and credit cards]

Have a look at the boy on left's look of disgust. This is Groper Joe in what he does best...........molest females, the younger the better!

https://www.facebook.com/ed.montalvo.12/posts/355030968840802

Do you think you might conduct yourself with a modicum of dignity?

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Have a look at the boy on left's look of disgust. This is Groper Joe in what he does best...........molest females, the younger the better!

https://www.facebook.com/ed.montalvo.12/posts/355030968840802

Do you think you might conduct yourself with a modicum of dignity?

Not in his job description.

 

[lpetrich]

Trump World boils over as campaign hits skids | TheHill

President Trump’s allies are urging him to change his tone and key figures in the campaign’s orbit are pointing fingers over who is to blame for the president’s spiraling poll numbers with just over four months to go until Election Day.

There is frustration in Trump World over the president's lack of discipline and his confrontational tone during a time of high anxiety over the coronavirus and civil unrest around the death of George Floyd while in police custody.

Ed Rollins:

“The message is weak or nonexistent. The rambling on about Biden and Pelosi or Clinton and Obama is old and tired. This needs to be about the future, not the past,” Rollins said.

“He needs to show empathy, which he hasn’t, and project strength by doing what Reagan, Thatcher and Churchill did with strong speeches. Not macho bullshit, but thoughtful solutions to serious problems. This is about the future, not what the Democrats did in the past. Make people be concerned with what [Democrats] can do with total control of the government, House, Senate and the White House.”

He'll have to show up on Fox & Friends to have any impact on Trump.

 

[lpetrich]

Trump admits it: He's losing - POLITICO

The president has privately come to that grim realization in recent days, multiple people close to him told POLITICO, amid a mountain of bad polling and warnings from some of his staunchest allies that he's on course to be a one-term president.

...
What should have been an easy interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity on Thursday horrified advisers when Trump offered a rambling, non-responsive answer to a simple question about his goals for a second term. In the same appearance, the normally self-assured president offered a tacit acknowledgment that he might lose when he said that Joe Biden is “gonna be your president because some people don't love me, maybe."

In the hours after the interview aired, questions swirled within his inner circle about whether his heart was truly in it when it comes to seeking reelection.

... But interviews with more than a half-dozen people close to the president depicted a reelection effort badly in need of direction — and an unfocused candidate who repeatedly undermines himself.

“Under the current trajectory, President Trump is on the precipice of one of the worst electoral defeats in modern presidential elections and the worst historically for an incumbent president,” said former Trump political adviser Sam Nunberg, who remains a supporter.

...
Still, Trump advisers acknowledge that tearing down Biden will require a level of discipline he isn’t demonstrating. They have pleaded with Trump — who has used his Twitter account to vilify critics from MSNBC host Joe Scarborough to former National Security Adviser John Bolton — to stop focusing on slights that mean little to voters.

I marvel at how all these high-level officials have been willing to put up with Trump's immaturity. Also just about every Republican in Congress. Mitch McConnell must consider him hopelessly undisciplined. But in public, MMC continues to faithfully enable Trump.

 

[Elixir]

Trump admits it: He's losing - POLITICO

The president has privately come to that grim realization in recent days, multiple people close to him told POLITICO, amid a mountain of bad polling and warnings from some of his staunchest allies that he's on course to be a one-term president.

...
What should have been an easy interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity on Thursday horrified advisers when Trump offered a rambling, non-responsive answer to a simple question about his goals for a second term. In the same appearance, the normally self-assured president offered a tacit acknowledgment that he might lose when he said that Joe Biden is “gonna be your president because some people don't love me, maybe."

In the hours after the interview aired, questions swirled within his inner circle about whether his heart was truly in it when it comes to seeking reelection.

... But interviews with more than a half-dozen people close to the president depicted a reelection effort badly in need of direction — and an unfocused candidate who repeatedly undermines himself.

“Under the current trajectory, President Trump is on the precipice of one of the worst electoral defeats in modern presidential elections and the worst historically for an incumbent president,” said former Trump political adviser Sam Nunberg, who remains a supporter.

...
Still, Trump advisers acknowledge that tearing down Biden will require a level of discipline he isn’t demonstrating. They have pleaded with Trump — who has used his Twitter account to vilify critics from MSNBC host Joe Scarborough to former National Security Adviser John Bolton — to stop focusing on slights that mean little to voters.

I marvel at how all these high-level officials have been willing to put up with Trump's immaturity. Also just about every Republican in Congress. Mitch McConnell must consider him hopelessly undisciplined. But in public, MMC continues to faithfully enable Trump.

In the not too distant future, assuming he doesn't succeed in becoming America's first dictator, Trump will be regarded as an extremely unfortunate flash in the pan. The scorch marks left on the pan will hopefully serve as a lesson to schoolchildren, warning them of the consequences of racism and xenophobia masquerading as "conservatism".

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Trump admits it: He's losing - POLITICO

The president has privately come to that grim realization in recent days, multiple people close to him told POLITICO, amid a mountain of bad polling and warnings from some of his staunchest allies that he's on course to be a one-term president.

...
What should have been an easy interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity on Thursday horrified advisers when Trump offered a rambling, non-responsive answer to a simple question about his goals for a second term. In the same appearance, the normally self-assured president offered a tacit acknowledgment that he might lose when he said that Joe Biden is “gonna be your president because some people don't love me, maybe."

In the hours after the interview aired, questions swirled within his inner circle about whether his heart was truly in it when it comes to seeking reelection.

... But interviews with more than a half-dozen people close to the president depicted a reelection effort badly in need of direction — and an unfocused candidate who repeatedly undermines himself.

“Under the current trajectory, President Trump is on the precipice of one of the worst electoral defeats in modern presidential elections and the worst historically for an incumbent president,” said former Trump political adviser Sam Nunberg, who remains a supporter.

...
Still, Trump advisers acknowledge that tearing down Biden will require a level of discipline he isn’t demonstrating. They have pleaded with Trump — who has used his Twitter account to vilify critics from MSNBC host Joe Scarborough to former National Security Adviser John Bolton — to stop focusing on slights that mean little to voters.

I marvel at how all these high-level officials have been willing to put up with Trump's immaturity. Also just about every Republican in Congress. Mitch McConnell must consider him hopelessly undisciplined. But in public, MMC continues to faithfully enable Trump.

I suspect a lot of this is because they get what they want and let Trump take the blame for the rest. Most of them are in deep red states and don't have to worry much about re-election. So as long as they get policies they want, and activist right winged judges for life, they just do not care. As Trump sinks and threatens to take down the Senate with him, they might start caring a bit, but it is too late. Some are sly and shameless, some are stupid with no more smarts than a goat. But as Louie Gohmert has demonstrated, being stupid is not a political liability in a deep red district filled with right winged morons. Many of the smarter ones who might be primaried if they buck Trump, are willing to wait til he goes away and stay in power, even if it is as the minority party.

 

[lpetrich]

Wall Street Quietly Begins Warning About A Biden Presidency

With Joe Biden surging in the polls, Wall Street executives are preparing for a potential scenario where he becomes president—with some firms warning clients the stock market could take a hit.

...
The main concern for Wall Street if Trump doesn’t win reelection is the likelihood of higher corporate taxes: In cember 2019, Biden pledged to roll back Trump’s signature tax cut legislation, which massively boosted corporate profits.

While often expressing more moderate views in public, many wealthy executives and investors privately supported Trump for his tax cuts and deregulation efforts; As some now prepare for a Biden presidency, it’s a noticeable change of tone for Wall Street.

How Arizona Became A Swing State | FiveThirtyEight - part of it is from the state's expanding Hispanic population.

 

[lpetrich]

14 Versions Of Trump’s Presidency, From #MAGA To Impeachment | FiveThirtyEight - by Nate Silver, Feb. 3, 2017, at 3:24 PM

• Group I: Extrapolations from the status quo.
  • 1. Trump keeps on Trumpin’ and the country remains evenly divided
  • 2. Trump gradually (or not-so-gradually) enters a death spiral.
  • 3. Trump keeps rewriting the political rules and gradually becomes more popular.
• Group II: Trump changes direction.
  • 4. Trump mellows out, slightly.
  • 5. Trump cedes authority.
  • 6. Trump successfully pivots to the populist center (but with plenty of authoritarianism too).
  • 7. Trump flails around aimlessly after an unsuccessful attempt to pivot.
• Group III: The three horsemen of the presidential apocalypse: war, recession, scandal.
  • 8. Trump is consumed by scandal.
  • 9. Trump is undermined by a failure to deliver jobs.
  • 10. Trump’s law-and-order agenda is bolstered by an international incident or terrorist attack.
• Group IV: Things fall apart.
  • 11. Trump plunges America into outright authoritarianism.
  • 12. Resistance to Trump from elsewhere in the government undermines his authority but prompts a constitutional crisis.
• Group V: Trump Makes America Great Again.
  • 13. Trump becomes Governor Schwarzenegger.
  • 14. Trump’s button-mashing works because the system really is broken.

Trump's first term is almost done, so we can now work out how well NS did in laying out the possibilities.

 

[Elixir]

Wall Street Quietly Begins Warning About A Biden Presidency

With Joe Biden surging in the polls, Wall Street executives are preparing for a potential scenario where he becomes president—with some firms warning clients the stock market could take a hit.

...
The main concern for Wall Street if Trump doesn’t win reelection is the likelihood of higher corporate taxes: In cember 2019, Biden pledged to roll back Trump’s signature tax cut legislation, which massively boosted corporate profits.

While often expressing more moderate views in public, many wealthy executives and investors privately supported Trump for his tax cuts and deregulation efforts; As some now prepare for a Biden presidency, it’s a noticeable change of tone for Wall Street.

Meh. Investors can read polls. The likelihood of a Dem sweep is not lost on them, nor is the historical fact that Dem administrations have seen greater equities growth than Repugs in recent decades. Prices are baked in already. Re-regulation of some industries will actually be welcomed.

 

[lpetrich]

What Path Is The Trump Presidency On Now? | FiveThirtyEight compares Trump's pResidency to NS's scenarios.

It's a mixed bag, a mixture of the scenarios.

Trump was running on economic success, which he claimed credit for even if he had little do to do with it. And that was an argument that was kind of working.

So in some ways, Trump’s path was to do crazy things but focus on the economy and say, “Whatever I tweet, I get things done.”

And that was a decent path until COVID-19.

Decent for him, maybe. He presents himself as some great hero of economic management, someone who spends 12 hours a day at his desk, carefully studying economic data and making lots of phone calls to business leaders getting them to hire people.

 

[lpetrich]

Why Biden’s Polling Lead Is Different From Clinton’s In 2016 | FiveThirtyEight

For now, though, it’s notable that the Midwestern swing states — namely, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are still a bit more Democratic-leaning than the emerging swing states in the Sun Belt, like Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas.

Biden Has A Historically Large Lead Over Trump, But It Could Disappear | FiveThirtyEight

It’s not just Biden’s margin that stands out, either; he’s also only one of three candidates to crack the 50 percent mark at this point in the cycle. (The other two were Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984, both of whom were incumbents who went on to win landslide victories by 23 and 18 points, respectively.) It’s unlikely that Biden wins by that sort of margin, given our increasingly polarized politics, but it is a sign that there are fewer undecided or third-party voters for Trump to pick up to help improve his position. It also doesn’t bode well for Trump that he is in the worst position of any incumbent since Jimmy Carter in 1980.

But before you declare Biden the winner, remember his lead is not insurmountable. Polls closer to November could very well show a race that is tightening. At this point in the 1988 cycle, Michael Dukakis led nationally by almost 5 points, and in 2000, George W. Bush was up by nearly 8 points. But Dukakis ended up losing by nearly 8 points in November while Bush narrowly lost the popular vote. (He still won the Electoral College, thanks to Florida.)

Though that could happen, it is not very common. Looking at  Historical polling for United States presidential elections, I find

1936, 1940, 1944, 1952, 1956, 1960, 1964, 1972, 1984, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016: winner had roughly constant lead over loser, whether barely or by a large margin.

1948: Truman was behind Dewey for most of the year.

1968: Humphrey had a big dip int the last 2 or 3 months but almost won.

1976: Ford had a dip that was strongest 4 months before the election but almost won.

1980: Carter was initially ahead of Reagan, but declined to about even at 5 months before, and the two stayed neck-and-neck to the election.

1988: Dukakis was ahead of Bush I for 6 to 4 months before the election, then became less than Bush I in the last two months.

1992: Bush I was ahead of Clinton until 5 months before the election, when Perot dropped out and Clinton got well ahead of Bush I. They stayed that way for the rest of the campaign.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton was slightly ahead of Trump for the entire race -- and she won the popular vote.

 

[lpetrich]

Politics Podcast: Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas | FiveThirtyEight

New Polling Shows Trump’s Electoral College Advantage Is Slipping | FiveThirtyEight

A new batch of polls released by The New York Times Upshot/Siena College this morning has caused a stir as they gave former Vice President Joe Biden leads ranging from 6 to 11 percentage points in six key battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Yet these surveys largely reinforced what our polling averages already showed: Biden has a sizable edge over President Trump in the states that are most likely to be the tipping point in the Electoral College, and he leads or is running even with Trump in some states that leaned Republican in 2016. As a result, Trump’s much-ballyhooed Electoral College advantage doesn’t look strong enough to save him — for the moment, at least.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Real Clear Politics - 6-30-2020
Trump - 40.4%
Biden - 50.0%
Biden is up 9.6%

538
Trump - 41.5%
Biden - 51.1%
Biden is up by 9.6%

In the swing states that gave trump The electoral college in 2016, Biden is smoking Trump. Biden is up on Trump 7.3% in Florida. Trump is up in Texas by 0.2% 125 days to go to election day.

 

[angelo]

Have a look at the boy on left's look of disgust. This is Groper Joe in what he does best...........molest females, the younger the better!

https://www.facebook.com/ed.montalvo.12/posts/355030968840802

You mean the Daughter-Fucking Putin-Sucking Trump?

The image speaks a million words! Why is it okay for a an old geezer like Groper Joe [ a presidential hopeful at that] to sniff and kiss little girls when it's viewed as disgusting behavior by anyone else?

 

[angelo]

As it stands atm. Groper Joe is home and hosed thanks be to COVID-19 as this poll shows.

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

 

[funinspace]

Have a look at the boy on left's look of disgust. This is Groper Joe in what he does best...........molest females, the younger the better!

https://www.facebook.com/ed.montalvo.12/posts/355030968840802

You mean the Daughter-Fucking Putin-Sucking Trump?

The image speaks a million words! Why is it okay for a an old geezer like Groper Joe [ a presidential hopeful at that] to sniff and kiss little girls when it's viewed as disgusting behavior by anyone else?

Images can speak a million words, but what you suggest is coming out of a sicknes,s not a picture. You and your fellow alt-reality crowd are twisting a family funeral pic into a pretzel to suggest shit that isn't there.

Meanwhile you clearly ignore the background and behavior of a real pervert you worship.

 

[funinspace]

As it stands atm. Groper Joe is home and hosed thanks be to COVID-19 as this poll shows.

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

Your words are strange (almost as if the words are detached from reality), as the link you posted says Daughter-Fucking Putin-Sucking Trump is going down hard, with a current (6/30/20) projected electoral loss coming in at 195 (FFvC) to 343 (Biden).