Polls of the Presidential Race

[lpetrich]

Trump 2020 polls: White-collar revolt against the President is peaking - CNNPolitics

From his open defiance of public health officials when holding rallies to his increasingly explicit embrace of White racial backlash, President Donald Trump has set a course for his reelection campaign that could produce the GOP's largest deficit in the history of modern polling among well-educated White voters.

Relative to other Republicans, Trump has underperformed with those voters since he began his first presidential campaign in 2015. And by flouting science and openly inflaming racial tensions, he is now directly centering the campaign debate on two of the principal dynamics that have alienated those voters from him. That shows signs of accelerating the shift of these voters -- who had never backed a Democratic presidential nominee in polling before 2016 -- away from the GOP to an unprecedented new level.

...
Trump has always tried to convince his primarily non-college and non-urban White base that he "alone" can protect them from the twin forces he portrays as threatening their interests: contemptuous elites who allegedly disdain their values and dangerous minorities and immigrants who purportedly threaten their jobs and their physical safety.

...
Observers in both parties believe Trump sees his defiance of local officials and medical experts on the rallies as a way to reinforce his identity as an outsider who will break the rules to defend his voters' interests. But on both sides, many believe that approach carries enormous risk, particularly with older and college-educated voters, both of whom have displayed elevated levels of concern about the pandemic.

...
Trump holding the rallies despite the advice of public health officials is "just continued fodder for ignoring expert advice, which has always been a deep concern that the voters have had," Gourevitch said. "They also play into the self-absorption aspect that he needs these rallies for himself and his own reelection rather than the good of the people."

...
Republican consultant Alex Conant, the communications director for Sen. Marco Rubio's 2016 presidential campaign, says such numbers among well-educated voters (as well as comparable weakness among seniors) show the price of Trump's downplaying of the crisis and his open defiance of public health officials.

Trump has evoked Richard Nixon by talking about "law and order" and about how a "silent majority" is on his side. But this isn't 1968.

In a striking finding, Quinnipiac this month found that college-educated Whites, by 2-to-1, said that having Trump as President made them feel less safe rather than more. By comparison, Whites without degrees, by a 20-point margin, said Trump made them feel more safe.
The Navigator polls likewise found that two-thirds of college Whites expressed concern that at moments of crisis Trump makes things worse "with ... inflammatory words and actions."

...
All of this signals that November could produce perhaps the largest gap ever between Whites with and without college degrees. In most state and national polls, Trump consistently maintains a huge advantage of at least 2-to-1 among blue-collar White men, his best group in 2016.
And while surveys consistently show Trump's margin among blue-collar White women declining from 2016, in most polls he maintains at least some lead with them.

The Republicans risk losing more suburban House seats, adding to their losses in 2018, and they risk losing Senate seats because of metro-area voters in several states. AZ, CO, ME, NC, and maybe also IA and GA. Also, long-time Republican states like AZ, GA, and TX are becoming battlegrounds.

Trump has aimed his responses to the two major crises of 2020 almost entirely at his base of non-college, non-urban voters while slighting the concerns that well-educated metropolitan voters have consistently expressed in polls. That reflects the belief among many Republicans that his most likely path to victory is by turning out even more of his base voters than in 2016, especially in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the three Rust Belt states that keyed his election.

GOP pollster Whit Ayres and other Republicans also say Trump might reclaim at least some ground among well-educated White votes by portraying Biden as a threat to raise their taxes and to damage the economy and their stock portfolios.

But Conant, the GOP consultant, says Trump has dug himself a large hole in the white-collar suburbs by responding so cavalierly to the two national earthquakes that have riveted their attention.

"He really doesn't want to talk about the pandemic, which is all everyone in America is thinking about," Conant said. "It's the same thing with the Black Lives Matter protests, as well. He really didn't want to talk about George Floyd, which is what everyone in America was talking about for a month. When you have that kind of disconnect between the leader and the voters you see it in the potential [electoral] wave that is now more likely than not."

 

[lpetrich]

Yet more of Trump's culture warring.
Trump’s Twitter feed reads like a local crime blotter as he stokes a culture war - The Washington Post

The president’s messages about protesters and vandals have continued apace, often in the early hours of the morning or the late hours of the evening when he is not surrounded by aides, but sometimes in interviews and executive orders.

“We are tracking down the two Anarchists who threw paint on the magnificent George Washington Statue in Manhattan. We have them on tape. They will be prosecuted and face 10 years in Prison based on the Monuments and Statues Act,” Trump wrote Tuesday morning. “Turn yourselves in now!”

As the country convulses from incidents of police killings, mass protests and a rapidly spreading pandemic that has led to double-digit unemployment, the president seems most intent on inflaming an already burning culture war, using his Twitter feed to focus on vandalism by protesters and the well-being of statues that have been targeted.

Trump does not show much interest in the coronavirus or in police reform - not even much interest in economic-recovery messaging.

Instead, in dozens of tweets and comments, he has advocated for harsher criminal penalties and long jail sentences for those tearing down statues, suggesting up to 10 years in prison. Some allies note it is hard to see how 10 years in prison for painting a statue squares with the criminal justice law he signed and often promotes. Protesters who burn the flag, he said, should get one year in jail.

“This is a battle to save the Heritage, History, and Greatness of our Country!” the president tweeted Tuesday.

...
In several Oval Office meetings, the president has argued that looters and rioters, which have been a small part of largely peaceful protests across the country, as well as the toppling of statues, will ultimately help him win election because people will grow tired of their behavior and appreciate his harsh rhetoric.

...
So far, it remains unclear whether what advisers said is a political calculation will work. Voters have disapproved of Trump’s responses to the coronavirus and the protests after police shootings, according to national and swing state polls.

...
Douglas Brinkley, a presidential historian at Rice University who has written about race, said the president sees the issue as a cultural one that plays to his political base, such as NFL players kneeling during the national anthem, during a time he can no longer point to a strong economy.

 

[angelo]

This is what America is destined for once Groper Joe is sworn in as POTUS. The end of America as it's known at today, and deep but too late to regret outcome.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16181/black-lives-matter

From the article..............................

Columnist Josh Hammer wrote that that the American system of governance and way of life is under existential threat by groups such as BLM and Antifa:

"The modern left, in thrall to the anarchists of Antifa and the Marxists of Black Lives Matter, has positioned itself as a political movement that stands athwart the American regime. At an institutional level, Democratic Party leadership is increasingly a dog wagged by the tail that is Antifa and Black Lives Matter. And that tail, as is openly conceded in moments of candor, is resolutely opposed to the idea of America itself. There is no alternative way to comprehend the ardent desire of those insurrectionists who, channeling the very worst of Mao's Cultural Revolution, would deface and demolish societal tributes to the man who wrote the Declaration of Independence (Jefferson) and the man who brought to fruition its ideals (Lincoln). Could we ask for a more clarion demonstration of the dripping disdain with which the left views the entire American project?

"We are now in the midst of a cold civil war between Americanists, proud defenders and preservers of the American regime and way of life, and the civilizational arsonists who seek to burn that regime and way of life into the ether. Yes, we are in a fight for America's soul — but we are also in a fight for America itself."

 

[cycomiko]

This is what America is destined for once Groper Joe is sworn in as POTUS. The end of America as it's known at today, and deep but too late to regret outcome.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16181/black-lives-matter

From the article..............................

Columnist Josh Hammer wrote that that the American system of governance and way of life is under existential threat by groups such as BLM and Antifa:

"The modern left, in thrall to the anarchists of Antifa and the Marxists of Black Lives Matter, has positioned itself as a political movement that stands athwart the American regime. At an institutional level, Democratic Party leadership is increasingly a dog wagged by the tail that is Antifa and Black Lives Matter. And that tail, as is openly conceded in moments of candor, is resolutely opposed to the idea of America itself. There is no alternative way to comprehend the ardent desire of those insurrectionists who, channeling the very worst of Mao's Cultural Revolution, would deface and demolish societal tributes to the man who wrote the Declaration of Independence (Jefferson) and the man who brought to fruition its ideals (Lincoln). Could we ask for a more clarion demonstration of the dripping disdain with which the left views the entire American project?

"We are now in the midst of a cold civil war between Americanists, proud defenders and preservers of the American regime and way of life, and the civilizational arsonists who seek to burn that regime and way of life into the ether. Yes, we are in a fight for America's soul — but we are also in a fight for America itself."

The opinion of a columnist writing for the gatestone institute. Nice.

 

[Elixir]

This is what America is destined for once Groper Joe is sworn in as POTUS. The end of America as it's known at today, and deep but too late to regret outcome.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16181/black-lives-matter

From the article..............................

Columnist Josh Hammer wrote that that the American system of governance and way of life is under existential threat by groups such as BLM and Antifa:

"The modern left, in thrall to the anarchists of Antifa and the Marxists of Black Lives Matter, has positioned itself as a political movement that stands athwart the American regime. At an institutional level, Democratic Party leadership is increasingly a dog wagged by the tail that is Antifa and Black Lives Matter. And that tail, as is openly conceded in moments of candor, is resolutely opposed to the idea of America itself. There is no alternative way to comprehend the ardent desire of those insurrectionists who, channeling the very worst of Mao's Cultural Revolution, would deface and demolish societal tributes to the man who wrote the Declaration of Independence (Jefferson) and the man who brought to fruition its ideals (Lincoln). Could we ask for a more clarion demonstration of the dripping disdain with which the left views the entire American project?

"We are now in the midst of a cold civil war between Americanists, proud defenders and preservers of the American regime and way of life, and the civilizational arsonists who seek to burn that regime and way of life into the ether. Yes, we are in a fight for America's soul — but we are also in a fight for America itself."

The opinion of a columnist writing for the gatestone institute. Nice.

Heh. That's what you get from a FOXwashed Aussie. Slavery good, democracy bad.

"the American system of governance and way of life is under existential threat by groups such as BLM and Antifa"

Exactly what southern slave owners said about Abraham Lincoln and the abolitionists.
I particularly love "Groper Joe" and how it contrasts with "Raper Don".

 

[cycomiko]

This is what America is destined for once Groper Joe is sworn in as POTUS. The end of America as it's known at today, and deep but too late to regret outcome.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16181/black-lives-matter

From the article..............................

Columnist Josh Hammer wrote that that the American system of governance and way of life is under existential threat by groups such as BLM and Antifa:

"The modern left, in thrall to the anarchists of Antifa and the Marxists of Black Lives Matter, has positioned itself as a political movement that stands athwart the American regime. At an institutional level, Democratic Party leadership is increasingly a dog wagged by the tail that is Antifa and Black Lives Matter. And that tail, as is openly conceded in moments of candor, is resolutely opposed to the idea of America itself. There is no alternative way to comprehend the ardent desire of those insurrectionists who, channeling the very worst of Mao's Cultural Revolution, would deface and demolish societal tributes to the man who wrote the Declaration of Independence (Jefferson) and the man who brought to fruition its ideals (Lincoln). Could we ask for a more clarion demonstration of the dripping disdain with which the left views the entire American project?

"We are now in the midst of a cold civil war between Americanists, proud defenders and preservers of the American regime and way of life, and the civilizational arsonists who seek to burn that regime and way of life into the ether. Yes, we are in a fight for America's soul — but we are also in a fight for America itself."

The opinion of a columnist writing for the gatestone institute. Nice.

Heh. That's what you get from a FOXwashed Aussie. Slavery good, democracy bad.

"the American system of governance and way of life is under existential threat by groups such as BLM and Antifa"

Exactly what southern slave owners said about Abraham Lincoln and the abolitionists.
I particularly love "Groper Joe" and how it contrasts with "Raper Don".

Yeah, it's quite entertaining. Can't figure out why people keep attempting to engage in a real discussion.

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

No one does. Angelo just doesn't understand that he's in a zoo and we're all just watching him throw his feces around.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

View attachment 28412

Even the parrot is throwing up (or doing spit take).

Meanwhile you'll notice Ivanka's hand position, one on top, to keep from wandering up high... and one below, to keep from wandering... *sigh*

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The image speaks a million words! Why is it okay for a an old geezer like Groper Joe [ a presidential hopeful at that] to sniff and kiss little girls when it's viewed as disgusting behavior by anyone else?

Why is okay for you to mock somebody at a funeral? Especially when the person you are mocking is the father of the person who died.

It is pathetic.

 

[Patooka]

No one does. Angelo just doesn't understand that he's in a zoo and we're all just watching him throw his feces around.

What's even more adorable is in Australia, a groper, or sandgroper, is someone from Western Australia. And yet angelo keeps on insisting on using it as a pejorative term with a total lack of self awareness.

 

[lpetrich]

Democratic ad makers think they’ve discovered Trump’s soft spot - POLITICO
Democratic ad makers:

They didn’t focus on the president’s curious monologue about his difficulties descending a ramp or drinking water at West Point, the small crowd size of the Tulsa event or even his use of the racist term “kung flu.” Instead, the ads zeroed in on Trump’s admission that he urged officials to “slow the [coronavirus] testing down.”

It’s a reflection of a growing consensus among Democrats about what kind of hits on Trump are most likely to persuade swing voters — and which ones won’t. As in 2016, ad makers are focusing on Trump’s character. But unlike four years ago, they are no longer focusing on his character in isolation — rather they are pouring tens of millions of dollars into ads yoking his behavior to substantive policy issues surrounding the coronavirus, the economy and the civil unrest since the death of George Floyd.

...
But the ad makers’ overarching takeaway from their research was this: While Trump may not be vulnerable on issues of character alone, as he demonstrated in 2016, he is vulnerable when character is tied to his policy record on the economy and health care.

...
Trump complained on Twitter that “the Democrats are doing totally false advertising.” But after the Democratic National Committee posted its first TV ads since 2016 — one asserting that Trump had “brought America down with him” and the other a more focused critique of his handling of China and trade — even the president acknowledged the effectiveness of the assault.

“On the campaign they’ll say such horrible things about me. It’s a very unfair business,” he said on Fox News. “But the ad [Democrats] did this morning, it’s a great ad for them.”

...
And Trump keeps providing fodder. As outside groups began running ads featuring Trump’s “slow the testing down” remark last week, one Democratic strategist said, “Everybody is going to put this into their ads. This is something people are going to see on their TVs … for the rest of the cycle.”

Finally something that works against him. But he might try to call his own words "fake news".

 

[lpetrich]

Exclusive: Hundreds of George W. Bush administration officials to back Biden, group says - Reuters

The officials, who include Cabinet secretaries and other senior people in the Bush administration, have formed a political action committee - 43 Alumni for Biden - to support the former vice president in his Nov. 3 race, three organizers of the group told Reuters. Bush was the country’s 43rd president.

...
“We know what is normal and what is abnormal, and what we are seeing is highly abnormal. The president is a danger,” said Jennifer Millikin, one of the 43 Alumni organizers, who worked on Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign and later in the General Services Administration.

Yet more Republicans against Trump.

69 million clues Trump is nervous about November - CNNPolitics

The Trump campaign has reserved $69 million in television ads beginning in September through Election Day in six states: Arizona, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Note that these are key swing states -- and Democratic candidate former Vice President Joe Biden happens to have clear leads in Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, plus leads within the margin of error in Ohio and North Carolina.

A clue for each $1, it seems.

 

[angelo]

This is what America is destined for once Groper Joe is sworn in as POTUS. The end of America as it's known at today, and deep but too late to regret outcome.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16181/black-lives-matter

From the article..............................

Columnist Josh Hammer wrote that that the American system of governance and way of life is under existential threat by groups such as BLM and Antifa:

"The modern left, in thrall to the anarchists of Antifa and the Marxists of Black Lives Matter, has positioned itself as a political movement that stands athwart the American regime. At an institutional level, Democratic Party leadership is increasingly a dog wagged by the tail that is Antifa and Black Lives Matter. And that tail, as is openly conceded in moments of candor, is resolutely opposed to the idea of America itself. There is no alternative way to comprehend the ardent desire of those insurrectionists who, channeling the very worst of Mao's Cultural Revolution, would deface and demolish societal tributes to the man who wrote the Declaration of Independence (Jefferson) and the man who brought to fruition its ideals (Lincoln). Could we ask for a more clarion demonstration of the dripping disdain with which the left views the entire American project?

"We are now in the midst of a cold civil war between Americanists, proud defenders and preservers of the American regime and way of life, and the civilizational arsonists who seek to burn that regime and way of life into the ether. Yes, we are in a fight for America's soul — but we are also in a fight for America itself."

The opinion of a columnist writing for the gatestone institute. Nice.

Heh. That's what you get from a FOXwashed Aussie. Slavery good, democracy bad.

"the American system of governance and way of life is under existential threat by groups such as BLM and Antifa"

Exactly what southern slave owners said about Abraham Lincoln and the abolitionists.
I particularly love "Groper Joe" and how it contrasts with "Raper Don".

I have no idea about your circumstances, and I'm too lazy to go check your profile. But in all honesty, if you have a pretty little girl, would you truly feel comfortable with Groper Joe hanging around her? I understand that many people would simply overlook inappropriate behavior even to ones own immediate family if it's their idol or his/hers choice of political ideological hero. Even Adolf Hitler had an Eva Braun!

 

[angelo]

During my lurking on as many here regard hard right sources, I found this. It makes some interesting points even though most here won't bother to look at it.

https://spectator.org/a-black-runni...urce=email&utm_content=&utm_campaign=campaign

A Black Running Mate Won’t Save Biden
It really doesn't matter who Biden chooses, he's destined for political oblivion.

 

[funinspace]

Democratic ad makers think they’ve discovered Trump’s soft spot - POLITICO
Democratic ad makers:

They didn’t focus on the president’s curious monologue about his difficulties descending a ramp or drinking water at West Point, the small crowd size of the Tulsa event or even his use of the racist term “kung flu.” Instead, the ads zeroed in on Trump’s admission that he urged officials to “slow the [coronavirus] testing down.”

It’s a reflection of a growing consensus among Democrats about what kind of hits on Trump are most likely to persuade swing voters — and which ones won’t. As in 2016, ad makers are focusing on Trump’s character. But unlike four years ago, they are no longer focusing on his character in isolation — rather they are pouring tens of millions of dollars into ads yoking his behavior to substantive policy issues surrounding the coronavirus, the economy and the civil unrest since the death of George Floyd.

...
But the ad makers’ overarching takeaway from their research was this: While Trump may not be vulnerable on issues of character alone, as he demonstrated in 2016, he is vulnerable when character is tied to his policy record on the economy and health care.

...
Trump complained on Twitter that “the Democrats are doing totally false advertising.” But after the Democratic National Committee posted its first TV ads since 2016 — one asserting that Trump had “brought America down with him” and the other a more focused critique of his handling of China and trade — even the president acknowledged the effectiveness of the assault.

“On the campaign they’ll say such horrible things about me. It’s a very unfair business,” he said on Fox News. “But the ad [Democrats] did this morning, it’s a great ad for them.”

...
And Trump keeps providing fodder. As outside groups began running ads featuring Trump’s “slow the testing down” remark last week, one Democratic strategist said, “Everybody is going to put this into their ads. This is something people are going to see on their TVs … for the rest of the cycle.”

Finally something that works against him. But he might try to call his own words "fake news".

I wouldn't quite say it that way 'finally something that works against him', as it is more that Clownsticks 3.5 years of incompetence is working against him. His sticking to nonsense like "it will just disappear" (among dozens upon dozens of other idiotic comments about this deadly pandemic) is going to keep pissing off senior citizens and pushing them into Biden's camp. Don's con is old and tired and it is laying itself bare for all to see with this pandemic. And pointing that out in adds will reinforce that...

 

[TV and credit cards]

I’m hoping it’s the Republican strategy of making it difficult to vote that works against them this cycle. For all of Trump’s asinine comments, perhaps it will be the 45 and older Trump supporter that stays home this time.
If the markets would drop and stay down through the end of the year, this will be in the bag. With 55% of Americans invested in stocks in one form or another, surely half are Democrats propping up the indices. I guess we know where the buck stops.

 

[Elixir]

If the markets would drop and stay down through the end of the year, this will be in the bag.

Nothing will be "in the bag" until someone else is inaugurated as President and the Senate is liberated from the Putinist McConnell cabal.
Cheato's appeal yesterday to the militancy of his 28% MAGA morons is a total tell; he doesn't expect to win the actual vote in November, he hopes to overthrow the results of the election.
I am becoming less confident of his chances of success in that endeavor (as he further alienates the Military) but he has no choice but to go that route.

 

[angelo]

There's enough material right here in this short video to make so many adds to show Groper Joe is not fit to run a boy scouts club let alone lead the free world!

 

[angelo]

If the markets would drop and stay down through the end of the year, this will be in the bag.

Nothing will be "in the bag" until someone else is inaugurated as President and the Senate is liberated from the Putinist McConnell cabal.
Cheato's appeal yesterday to the militancy of his 28% MAGA morons is a total tell; he doesn't expect to win the actual vote in November, he hopes to overthrow the results of the election.
I am becoming less confident of his chances of success in that endeavor (as he further alienates the Military) but he has no choice but to go that route.

Unfortunately for the left and Dems, June produced very good employment figures under the circumstances. Another few months of this growth and the Trump will be able to campaign on his economic record, despite COVID-19.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

 

[Patooka]

Blah blah pedo Joe blah blah he's a groper blah blah he's incompetent blah blah

Man, it must really burn you up inside that despite all of Biden's gaffes, despite the fact he has consistently shown he is unfit for the office of President, he is still infinitely more qualified and certainly preferable than the alternative.

Here is over 200 pages highlighting all of Trump's stupidity. You're cute with your clip of 13 gaffes of Biden.