Post 2022 Election

[jab]

And hey, fuckers like Kari Lake are losing.

Near as it is to being official, the AZ governor's race has been called for the milquetoast, competent public servant Katie Hobbs over the shallow, bitchy former TV host Kari Lake.

Do I taste a bit of salt? Must be MAGA tears...

Snowflakes melt hard in Arizona.

 

[ZiprHead]

Republicans just hit 218 in the House.

 

[Elixir]

From the sunday pundits, McCarthy can either suport Trump in his election bid or not get elected speaker.

Then who does? I don’t think MTG or Bubbles is going to get 218 votes. Steve Scalise? Gym Jordan? Hard to see ANY of them getting a United Republican party behind them.

 

[Patooka]

Quick question; what happens, if anything, on days where republican absenteeism is so much democrats have a majority in the house?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Quick question; what happens, if anything, on days where republican absenteeism is so much democrats have a majority in the house?

I'm uncertain, but I imagine it'll all happen with a Benny Hill music track running in the background.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

ELECTION PERSPECTIVES - DEMOCRATS ARE FUCKED Version

There has been a lot said about this past election, and there are different types of takeaways. Historically, the Democrats do poorly in mid-terms, especially when they are in the White House. The GOP had ridiculous ideas of a massive tsunami and the implication that the tsunami didn't happen means things went well for the Democrats. But in this written review, we discuss just how bad things really are for the Democrats based on the results of this election.

It is bad, really bad. I mean, you can't label an adjective to bad to show how bad it is. Why? Well, multiple reasons.

1) That is all we got from Dobbs?! Dobbs made it legal for abortion to be made super-illegal. And states have pushed ahead and done just that. The majority of Americans believe abortion should be legal. But, instead of a huge wave to resist the ridiculous SCOTUS ruling, all we got were minor improvements in the voting pool. The incumbent Governor in Michigan won... by a bit, in a margin helped by Dobbs, but that margin wasn't blow your mind large. And in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, the percent of women voting was lower than the percentage of men. WTF?!

2) Here is W(hy)TF?! In 2018 and 2020, turnout was actually high. President Trump did a great job in exciting the opposite base to vote. The reality was, the people that didn't usually vote got out to vote against Trump. Anyone not voting against Trump weren't going out to vote ever. "SHIT!" I know, right! It means that the margins we saw in 2018, 2020, 2022 were as good as it seemingly can get. Even a fucking Astronaut won by only a handful of percentage points against a god damn fascist!

I mean, yes, on paper, the Democrats did decently... but to be honest, this was a friendly map. But what we've learned is that purple states have turned red, thanks to gerrymandering. Ohio, Florida... they ain't purple no more. The state legislature is gerrymandered. The US House is gerrymandered. Florida is likewise. And then it becomes a self-perpetuating cycle of becoming more partisan to one side.

3) 2024 is going to be a blood bath in the US Senate. The Democrats have too many seats to defend, and almost no seats to take from the Republicans. IE, the Democrats are losing the Senate, no Stacy Abram miracles this time around. If the Dems don't take the House back, that could be a trifecta, and with the GOP eliminating the filibuster in 2025, pretty much at an end game. If DeSantis wins the White House, that'd likely mean a trifecta. And if the GOP doesn't win, the Congress will fuck the US President so much, they'll drag the US economy into the ground to extend Congress gains in 2026. In 2026, there are maybe two Senate seats up for grabs for the Dems, with the Dem seats relatively safe.

4) Forget about judicial nominations if the GOP win the Senate, but not the White House!

This is bad, real bad. The Democrats didn't repel a massive tsunami successfully... it was never going to be a massive red wave. And the best the Dems could do was generally make things even, while losing the House.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

ELECTION PERSPECTIVES - DEMOCRATS [America] ARE FUCKED Version

Fixed.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

ELECTION PERSPECTIVES - DEMOCRATS A NEW HOPE (TO KEEP RATE OF THE US'S DEMISE DOWN TO A MORE PALATABLE RATE)

There has been a lot said about this past election, and there are different types of takeaways. Historically, the Democrats do poorly in mid-terms, ... wait a second... I'm experiencing Deja Vu here.

Regardless, just because The General Election in 2024 means an almost certain loss of the US Senate, there are a few reasons to keep those razor blades safely tucked in the bathroom cabinet. The Senate looks bad, really bad, but 2022 Mid-Term implies the House and White House are within reach.

1) The Democrats lost a number of seats this past election in the House, but not a lot, and some in areas where we can win them back. Winning back the House is probably the most important thing in the 2024 Election. It is the best firewall to the GOP.

2) The Electoral College is still in the Democrats' favor. I mean, as much as DeSantis is the new Jesus of the GOP, it must be remembered that Florida has become unpurple, so fuck it. We don't need Florida, we've got Virginia. DeSantis's Hispanic appeal is much lower nationally. Cubans love the fuck out this guy, but Cubans are Cubans. They don't represent enough of the Hispanic vote nationally, especially in states that matter, CO and NV. The Battleground states are PA, NV, and WI. The Democrats win those (and Michigan), the Democrats win the White House. They don't need GA, AZ, or FL anymore. We've got Colorado and Virginia. The results in WI and PA and NV imply the Dems can hold onto them. And electing the President is the most important thing in the 2024 Election as being a firewall to the GOP. ... Yes I did say that was the House. Both are true.

3) Why are they both true? Well, because they both defend against different things. The House defends on legislation (after the Filibuster is eliminated by the GOP) and the President while being unable to gets judicial nominations that far, at least keeps the GOP from again stacking the courts with radicals that are firm believers in GOP based Unitary Executive Power. We really need both things.

The bad news is that winning back the House will require a Pelosi-like leader to keep herd the cats. Nancy Pelosi did that better than any other House leader. She'll be impossible to replace. Granted, with the end of our democracy nigh, maybe that'll help keep people in line. The reason why this was important is that the Dem House majority won't be big. If it happens, it'll be smaller than what it is now.

So we'll be very far from optimal, but 2024 provides multiple avenues of restricting the GOP's destruction of our nation. The House is attainable, the White House is very attainable. The Senate will awash in the blood of Democrats, but it'll be far from a super-majority... hence bye bye Filibuster.

 

[Elixir]

ELECTION PERSPECTIVES - DEMOCRATS A NEW HOPE (TO KEEP RATE OF THE US'S DEMISE DOWN TO A MORE PALATABLE RATE)

There has been a lot said about this past election, and there are different types of takeaways. Historically, the Democrats do poorly in mid-terms, ... wait a second... I'm experiencing Deja Vu here.

Regardless, just because The General Election in 2024 means an almost certain loss of the US Senate, there are a few reasons to keep those razor blades safely tucked in the bathroom cabinet. The Senate looks bad, really bad, but 2022 Mid-Term implies the House and White House are within reach.

1) The Democrats lost a number of seats this past election in the House, but not a lot, and some in areas where we can win them back. Winning back the House is probably the most important thing in the 2024 Election. It is the best firewall to the GOP.

2) The Electoral College is still in the Democrats' favor. I mean, as much as DeSantis is the new Jesus of the GOP, it must be remembered that Florida has become unpurple, so fuck it. We don't need Florida, we've got Virginia. DeSantis's Hispanic appeal is much lower nationally. Cubans love the fuck out this guy, but Cubans are Cubans. They don't represent enough of the Hispanic vote nationally, especially in states that matter, CO and NV. The Battleground states are PA, NV, and WI. The Democrats win those (and Michigan), the Democrats win the White House. They don't need GA, AZ, or FL anymore. We've got Colorado and Virginia. The results in WI and PA and NV imply the Dems can hold onto them. And electing the President is the most important thing in the 2024 Election as being a firewall to the GOP. ... Yes I did say that was the House. Both are true.

3) Why are they both true? Well, because they both defend against different things. The House defends on legislation (after the Filibuster is eliminated by the GOP) and the President while being unable to gets judicial nominations that far, at least keeps the GOP from again stacking the courts with radicals that are firm believers in GOP based Unitary Executive Power. We really need both things.

The bad news is that winning back the House will require a Pelosi-like leader to keep herd the cats. Nancy Pelosi did that better than any other House leader. She'll be impossible to replace. Granted, with the end of our democracy nigh, maybe that'll help keep people in line. The reason why this was important is that the Dem House majority won't be big. If it happens, it'll be smaller than what it is now.

So we'll be very far from optimal, but 2024 provides multiple avenues of restricting the GOP's destruction of our nation. The House is attainable, the White House is very attainable. The Senate will awash in the blood of Democrats, but it'll be far from a super-majority... hence bye bye Filibuster.

We obviously need to resuscitate Trump immediately, before he attains 100% irrelevance. Losing him would be a blow to Democrats comparable to Republicans’ loss of Hillary. Note that they haven’t really “won” an election since.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I view Trump and DeSantis as around equal in fascist danger to America. I take neither of them lightly. Trump might not be able to win, but he can continue to push the GOP base further to the insane portion of the right. DeSantis is a politically competent version of Trump. Anyone who thinks America is safe with him in charge is not paying attention.

 

[Politesse]

Gretchen Whitmer. They're calling Michigan the Dem's Florida.

Are we sure that's general approval for the Democrats, as opposed to sympathy for a woman the Republicans tried to have kidnapped and murdered? All the Michiganders I know are hardline conservatives, but they are also all white people from Macomb County, so my pool may be biased.

 

[Elixir]

Gretchen Whitmer. They're calling Michigan the Dem's Florida.

Are we sure that's general approval for the Democrats, as opposed to sympathy for a woman the Republicans tried to have kidnapped and murdered? All the Michiganders I know are hardline conservatives, but they are also all white people from Macomb County, so my pool may be biased.

Well yeah. One is a personality cult of kidnapping and murder, the other is a personality cult of intended kidnap and murder victims. Pretty much the same thing.

 

[Shadowy Man]

She should team up with Mike Pillow. He has about a two year head start collecting all the evidence of fraud.

 

[Derec]

Anyone. Is AOC old enough?

Barely.
But she is a far-left DSA member who can only win in a D+25 type district.
She didn't even shown that she could win a statewide race even in a very blue state like NY.
Maybe she can challenge Gillibrand in 2024.

Is Kristen Sinema sane enough?

She is sane, but she is hated by the base so much I don't think she could win the primaries unless the progs split their vote with multiple candidates.
What other poor suggestions do you have? Bernie - third time the charm?

I think a good candidate will emerge from the primary process. We should not prejudge it with premature attempts at a coronation like in 2016. Both (Bill) Clinton and Obama were relatively unknown at this point in their respective cycles.

Joe can’t win against a DeSantis IMzo unless he can pull economic rabbits out of a hat with a divided (at best) Congress,

The divided government might help him, as he now has an excuse to push back against the crazies in his own ranks that set too much of the agenda for the 1st half of Biden's 1st term. Safe to say, B³ and similar "drunken sailor" bills are DOA in the 118th Congress.

 

[Derec]

Call me a cock-eyed optimist, but I think inflation will be back down and the national unemployment rate will be down, so the Democrats' prospects will not be so dim.

Inflation will be down because of Powel et al, but that might trigger a recession. Good thing for Biden is, by 2024 a 2023 recession will likely be over.

 

[Derec]

MTG for Speaker!
Or better yet, Bubbles! (Looks like she’s going to get another term after all.)

???

Is anyone here familiar with Wes Moore? What little I’ve seen has impressed me …

Early to tell. He has not held any elected office until now. Let's see how he handles himself as governor.

 

[Derec]

Thought it was obvious. Having previous experience in Government is no longer required to win the Presidency. This is not to say that Michelle Obama doesn't have experience in government.

She doesn't. Not any more than a wife (or husband) of a heart surgeon has experience in medicine.

 

[Derec]

1) That is all we got from Dobbs?!

Dobbs prevented a Red Wave from materializing. >240 GOP Seats in the House. GOP Senate. Lee Zeldin governor. Even Kari Lake governor. It would have been a shellacking to shellac the malarkey out of the Dem Party.
Biden has low approval ratings. He let himself be led by the loony fringe of his own party - Cory Bush sleeping on Capitol steps was enough to cause Biden to extend the eviction moratorium that was bad policy, bad politics and which he knew was illegal. In general, Biden let COVID spending and other programs (increased child tax credit, greatly increased unemployment, 4th stimulus, student loan repayment pause) continue long past the point after the economy reopened, causing massive inflation.

 

[Gospel]

Thought it was obvious. Having previous experience in Government is no longer required to win the Presidency. This is not to say that Michelle Obama doesn't have experience in government.

She doesn't. Not any more than a wife (or husband) of a heart surgeon has experience in medicine.

I didn't study her life as much as you have so I'm not saying if she does or doesn't. Anyhow as I've said experience is not longer required (it actually never was, it's just so happened that the majority of presidents had that or military experience) so the point is moot.