Post 2022 Election

[ZiprHead]

No one said that.

Doubtful.

They said fiscal policy has little bearing on THIS inflation.

Why not? There was a lot of fiscal stimulus in the wake of COVID shutdowns, much of it continuing well past economy reopening. Why do you think it had little bearing, even if you want to arbitrarily restrict the lack of effect to THIS inflation?

You mean denial of economic reality.

I do not. More money (monetary easing, fiscal stimulus) chasing fewer goods and services (from lockdowns and supply chain shortages) leads to inflation. In this case, quite a bit of it too.

Sorry. I take the word of award winning economists over the word of some unknown computer programmer.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Cherry picking two races out of hundreds.

Hardly. Can you point to any evidence that polls got this election wrong?

Some polls were way off. Michigan's Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer had a very comfortable lead against Republican challenger Tudor Dixon in the polls over the summer and into fall. Then a poll was released on Oct. 31, well into the state's early voting period, finding the race was a virtual tie, and that half of independent voters were supporting Dixon, while less than 30 percent planned to vote for Whitmer. It was conducted by Insider Advantage, a Republican firm that has earned praise in the past for its polling methods and decently high accuracy rating from FiveThirtyEight, a group that aggregates polls.

But what voters were being fed by pollsters and the news media was skewed. One reason is that Republican-leaning firms that tend to favor their candidates took our temperature more often — and later in — this cycle than did the usual pollsters on which we rely. It skewed polling averages, according to Nate Cohn, The New York Times' chief political analyst.

Why Did Polls Prepare Us for a Red Wave? Experts Weigh In on the Surprising Midterm Election Results

Two days after the election, the majority in Congress has yet to be determined. If midterm polling had been accurate, Republicans would already be celebrating a dual-chamber sweep

people.com

Polls were trending back and forth. I wrote early that polls were going to be problematic. But due to modeling turnout. In the end, polls underpredicted the blue turnout a little. I wouldn't say they were completely off at all... well, pollsters that weren't Emerson.

I think the problem is, the press fucked up, not the polls. Also, the Democrats didn't fuck up. They saw a bit of worry in Washington and New Hampshire, and they doused the embers with water. They pumped lots of money into local state legislature races. The Democrats took this election seriously from top to bottom!

Polls? You look at the polls for Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida... those were on. Ohio had fewer women vote than men, and that will need to be fixed in the turnout algorithms. Men out vote women, the GOP has a much easier time. Also, Dems need Abrams in Ohio to figure out WTF is with women in Ohio.

Nevada was close, Arizona was close, Georgia was close. The Polls did pretty well, they do have a margin of error. They seem to suck once victory margins are above 10 pts, but the polls as reported by the pollsters generally showed a close election, and it was. The GOP was selling a massive wave and the Press were misinterpreting the signs. So it is funny to see the press pointing fingers at the Pollsters, when it was the press that fucked it up.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

She does except she's enough out of touch to not realize very few students over the age of 20 (and too many under 20) live in dormitories.

It's not about the dormitories, it's about the generation. Gen Z was already on track for worst ever, and then COVID and online "learning" happened.

Yet, Obama won in 2008 by huge margins. The youth can vote, the elderly just vote more. This is a thing. I remember in college most students weren't that interested in politics at all. I was watching returns and seeing Schumer defeat D'Amato ('98?). The focus of younger people isn't the humdrum of politics. It isn't that important a subject yet, because they don't get that what is now can disappear... like we saw with Dobbs.

They got used to easily cheatable online classes and exams and expect easy street to continue. So they do shit like get an Orgo professor fired because they deem his class "too hard". What a bunch of whiny crybabies!

You be the one whining. The "crybabies" these days are taking much more advanced classes in High School. Don't mistake what you read on blogs as representing what is happening in the classroom. Even grade schools are managing more difficult educations in math, teaching application of math skills much earlier than when I was in school longer ago than I want to admit.

Fuck! Shitting on the "younger generation" is so old... it is Biblical!

 

[Toni]

She does except she's enough out of touch to not realize very few students over the age of 20 (and too many under 20) live in dormitories.

It's not about the dormitories, it's about the generation. Gen Z was already on track for worst ever, and then COVID and online "learning" happened. They got used to easily cheatable online classes and exams and expect easy street to continue. So they do shit like get an Orgo professor fired because they deem his class "too hard". What a bunch of whiny crybabies!

I feel very sorry for all of those students who went through school during COVID. They got a really rough deal and have been cheated out of significant educational and life skills. What should happen is that there should be a two year catch up program for alllif those students, free of charge.

Organic chemistry can be a real bear. I remember class averages on tests below 40%__with a good prof.

 

[lpetrich]

Using Report Cards for 2020 - Ideology Score - All Representatives - GovTrack.us - added after their ages.

Old: Nancy Pelosi: 82 0.36, Steny Hoyer: 83 0.34, Jim Clyburn: 82 0.28
New: Hakeem Jeffries: 52 0.28, Katherine Clark: 59 0.21, Pete Aguilar: 43 0.30

Both old and new are middle-of-the-road by Democratic-Party standards.

 

[Politesse]

What should happen is that there should be a two year catch up program for alllif those students, free of charge.

This was part of the idea with offering temporary free tuition at most of the community colleges. But of course, most those programs are having their plugs pulled early now that "everything is back to normal", well before any of the students have finished even their remedial coursework let alone an associate degree.

 

[lpetrich]

McCarthy vows to remove Swalwell, Schiff, Omar from House committees | Fox News - Eric Swalwell, Adam Schiff and Ilhan Omar

McCarthy said Swalwell's association with a Chinese spy, Schiff’s promotion of the Steele dossier and Omar’s criticism of Israel disqualify them from serving on their respective panels.

"One thing I said from the very beginning, Eric Swalwell cannot get a security clearance in the public sector," he said. "Why would we ever give him a security clearance and the secrets to America? So, I will not allow him to be on Intel."

You have Adam Schiff, who lied to the American public time and again – we will not allow him to be on the Intel Committee either," he continued. "Look at Congresswoman Omar, her antisemitic comments that have gone forward. We're not going to allow her to be on Foreign Affairs."

"But we're also going to stand up to what's happening, not just in the halls in Congress, but what’s happening to our higher education institutions, the antisemitism that's going on on these campuses and others," he added. "We will investigate that as well and stop this to make sure that America does have the freedoms that we said we would keep, and we will stand up to it as we move forward."

 

[lpetrich]

Midterm elections 2022 results: The Republican Party wins the House majority - Vox

The small Republican majority will mean the likelihood that major legislation is passed in the new Congress is slim, particularly because Democrats held the Senate — and Biden still has veto power, though he indicated on Twitter that he’s willing to work with Republicans if they come to the table to address “the need to lower costs, protect the right to choose, and preserve our democracy.”

...
McCarthy has also already indicated that he intends to refuse any increase to the debt ceiling absent cuts to programs that are priorities for Democrats, including clean energy investments and Social Security.

In the time that they have left, will the Democrats pre-emptively raise the debt ceiling to forestall that tactic?

Republicans are ready to take revenge

Republicans are coming into power ready to get back at Democrats for what they perceive as four years of overreach, including their two impeachments of former President Donald Trump (with 10 Republican votes on the second occasion) and their investigation of the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.

Biden and his family — including the business dealings of the president’s son, Hunter Biden — are Republicans’ top targets. They also want to probe the origins of Covid-19 and the US’s messy withdrawal from Afghanistan last year. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) is expected to lead a broad investigation of the Justice Department and the FBI following the August raid on Mar-a-Lago, which led to calls from Trump-aligned candidates to “defund the FBI.”

In effect, defund the national police.

In July, some Republicans were also pushing for an investigation of the House select committee investigating January 6, suggesting it might involve subpoenaing members of that committee, including outgoing Reps. Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Adam Kinzinger of Illinois once they are private citizens next year. They were also considering whether to investigate Pelosi’s role in Capitol security enforcement; intelligence and security failures; and the treatment of insurrectionists who have been jailed for their involvement, seemingly in a bid to rewrite the narrative of what happened that day.

House Republicans have filed 14 impeachment resolutions against Biden officials

Biden has been the target of nine, with two aimed at Attorney General Merrick Garland and one each against Vice President Kamala Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas.

The most common charges have been mishandling the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan and failing to secure the U.S.-Mexico border.

MTG has introduced five of these resolutions.

 

[Toni]

What should happen is that there should be a two year catch up program for alllif those students, free of charge.

This was part of the idea with offering temporary free tuition at most of the community colleges. But of course, most those programs are having their plugs pulled early now that "everything is back to normal", well before any of the students have finished even their remedial coursework let alone an associate degree.

That’s a terrible mistake.

 

[Politesse]

I think so, but no one listens to me, haha.

 

[marc]

McCarthy vows to remove Swalwell, Schiff, Omar from House committees | Fox News - Eric Swalwell, Adam Schiff and Ilhan Omar

McCarthy said Swalwell's association with a Chinese spy, Schiff’s promotion of the Steele dossier and Omar’s criticism of Israel disqualify them from serving on their respective panels.

"One thing I said from the very beginning, Eric Swalwell cannot get a security clearance in the public sector," he said. "Why would we ever give him a security clearance and the secrets to America? So, I will not allow him to be on Intel."

You have Adam Schiff, who lied to the American public time and again – we will not allow him to be on the Intel Committee either," he continued. "Look at Congresswoman Omar, her antisemitic comments that have gone forward. We're not going to allow her to be on Foreign Affairs."

"But we're also going to stand up to what's happening, not just in the halls in Congress, but what’s happening to our higher education institutions, the antisemitism that's going on on these campuses and others," he added. "We will investigate that as well and stop this to make sure that America does have the freedoms that we said we would keep, and we will stand up to it as we move forward."

If he does that then they should learn the lesson of MTG. Use all that extra free time to speak out to the press and social media.

 

[Derec]

Why Did Polls Prepare Us for a Red Wave? Experts Weigh In on the Surprising Midterm Election Results

Two days after the election, the majority in Congress has yet to be determined. If midterm polling had been accurate, Republicans would already be celebrating a dual-chamber sweep

people.com

People? LMAO!

Sure, some polls were off. But in the aggregate they were good. You must separate polls themselves from reporting and punditry.
Nate Silver's analysis had Reps very favored to win the House and slightly favored to win the Senate. So they did not win the Senate - big whoop, things with 41% chance happen all the time.

Even in 2016 polls were not bad. National polls had Hillary ahead, and she ended up ahead in the national vote (although they both ended up short of a majority). The statewide polls were anything but indicative of a "sure thing" for Hillary, even if most media reported the race as such. But Nate Silver gave Trump an almost 30% chance of winning, or more than one in four. That means that Trump winning was only mildly surprising, no more than getting heads twice. That would not lead you to think the coin is not fair, and neither should Trump winning lead one to think the polls were bad.

 

[Derec]

Sorry. I take the word of award winning economists over the word of some unknown computer programmer.

Who is the "award-winning economist" again? Mike Konczal, the Katie Porter guy? He is not even a PhD holder afaik - he only has MS in finance.
Most economists, including the former professor of economics at UChicago, John Cochrane, very much accept the role fiscal spending plays in inflation.

 

[Derec]

I think the problem is, the press fucked up, not the polls.

Exactly. Just like in 2016.

Also, the Democrats didn't fuck up.

They did fuck up some, like in NY. But Reps fucked up more, esp. re Senate candidates like Keyser sÖZe or Herschel Walker.

 

[Derec]

Yet, Obama won in 2008 by huge margins. The youth can vote, the elderly just vote more.

There are age effects (i.e. members of every generation were young once) and generational effects (i.e. there are differences between Boomers, Xers, Millenials and now Zoomers at same ages). I was talking more about the latter.
There is no doubt the Pandemic plays a big role in how Gen Z has developed, given that they were in school (college for geriatric Zs but going all the way to elementary for the younger end of that cohort) during the Pandemic shutdowns.
I am sure Dobbs will have its effect on them as well. Younger Boomers, Xers and Millennials did not have to worry about getting a legal abortion if pregnant in their teens or early 20s.

You be the one whining.

"Be"? Did you take an online English class?
I be[sic] not the one whining. The ones whining be[sic] those who signed a petition about their NYC Orgo class being too difficult because they be[sic] used to easy online classes.

The "crybabies" these days are taking much more advanced classes in High School.

They are not! I mean, some kids are taking more advanced classes. AP, IB. But those are not likely the crybabies signing the petition.
After all, only 80 out of 350 students in Professor Jones' Orgo class signed the petition complaining the class was "too hard".

Don't mistake what you read on blogs as representing what is happening in the classroom.

It's not blogs. It was reported by many outlets, including New York Times.

And there is my own observation of an example of US education system getting dumbed down. I know two brothers. Both on a preMed track. Both went to the same local college - no NYU, not even a flagship state university, but an also-ran mid-tier public university.
Anyway, they both took general chemistry about four years apart. The elder's class was all right - not the difficulty of a comparable class at Tech or Emory of course, but they went through all the major topics. The younger's post-pandemic Gen Chem 1 and 2 classes - thought by two different professors, so it's not just one bad apple - skipped chapters like parts of bonding, gas laws, colligative properties, parts of thermodynamics, reaction mechanisms and all of redox/electrochemistry. How can you pass Chemistry and not cover something as fundamental as oxidation and reduction? Which is why standardized testing like MCAT is so important I guess.

Even grade schools are managing more difficult educations in math, teaching application of math skills much earlier than when I was in school longer ago than I want to admit.

For some. And I wonder how much of that was undone by Pandemic learning loss even for them.

Fuck! Shitting on the "younger generation" is so old... it is Biblical!

Socratic even! And old it may be, but sometimes it fits. Even though, I blame the hapless NYU admins (and admins of that local college I shall not name and shame here even though it would be deserved) much more than the kids.

 

[Derec]

I feel very sorry for all of those students who went through school during COVID. They got a really rough deal and have been cheated out of significant educational and life skills.

Educational is kind of obvious. But life skills degradation is more insidious. I would include doing poorly in a class educational, but signing petitions to fire the prof instead of working harder as a life skill failure.
The problem is that the powers that be encourage this behavior by giving in to them, thus providing positive feedback.

What should happen is that there should be a two year catch up program for alllif those students, free of charge.

I would not be averse to that.

Organic chemistry can be a real bear. I remember class averages on tests below 40%__with a good prof.

You know what they say. Sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes the bear eats you.

 

[Derec]

Old: Nancy Pelosi: 82 0.36, Steny Hoyer: 83 0.34, Jim Clyburn: 82 0.28
New: Hakeem Jeffries: 52 0.28, Katherine Clark: 59 0.21, Pete Aguilar: 43 0.30

Both old and new are middle-of-the-road by Democratic-Party standards.

By those data, the new leadership is quite a bit more left-wing than the old. Especially Clark.

 

[ZiprHead]

Sorry. I take the word of award winning economists over the word of some unknown computer programmer.

Who is the "award-winning economist" again? Mike Konczal, the Katie Porter guy? He is not even a PhD holder afaik - he only has MS in finance.
Most economists, including the former professor of economics at UChicago, John Cochrane, very much accept the role fiscal spending plays in inflation.

 

[Toni]

I feel very sorry for all of those students who went through school during COVID. They got a really rough deal and have been cheated out of significant educational and life skills.

Educational is kind of obvious. But life skills degradation is more insidious. I would include doing poorly in a class educational, but signing petitions to fire the prof instead of working harder as a life skill failure.
The problem is that the powers that be encourage this behavior by giving in to them, thus providing positive feedback.

What should happen is that there should be a two year catch up program for alllif those students, free of charge.

I would not be averse to that.

Organic chemistry can be a real bear. I remember class averages on tests below 40%__with a good prof.

You know what they say. Sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes the bear eats you.

Yeah, I do know that. But I also don't think there's any real useful purpose in teaching a course that is designed to be so difficult that the class average is 40%. Organic chemistry is a tough course with a lot of material to pack into a couple of semesters. But so are a lot of other courses. If one wishes to actually teach so that students learn and understand and maybe even love organic chemistry, it's altogether possible to do that, without 'lowering standards.' It involves doing things differently that the way the prof (if like most of us who went through organic) learned it. Instead, it's pretty much taught as a weed out course. Teaching it so that students learn the most possible from the course is different than teaching it so that you get half of the students to give up on science.

FWIW, I have a minor in biochemistry.

 

[Swammerdami]

Sorry. I take the word of award winning economists over the word of some unknown computer programmer.

Who is the "award-winning economist" again? Mike Konczal, the Katie Porter guy? He is not even a PhD holder afaik - he only has MS in finance.
Most economists, including the former professor of economics at UChicago, John Cochrane, very much accept the role fiscal spending plays in inflation.

Cite? No, not a cite that fiscal spending tends to cause inflation; we need a cite that — as you have repeatedly claimed — recent Democratic spending has been by far the MAJOR cause of inflation. Can you do this from a source other than UChicago with its well-known right-wing bias?

You yourself stated that there is agreement on the causes; the question is about the relative strengths of the causations. (Pro-tip: Interjecting such a blatantly obvious tautology like this, as though it refutes another poster's comment — in this case, mine — makes you look like a smug pedant, and discourages readers from reading further.)

So, what's your cite? Or is your smug confidence all you have?

And why do you rant so relentlessly against Biden's trillions of spending during economic bust while you remain silent on Trump's irresponsible trillions transferred to billionaires and multi-millionaires during economic boom? Can't you get over your unrequited fascination with AOC and her progressive agenda?

Here's a quote I just stumbled on which may offer a new perspective on spending power, which is, please do recall, heavily based on psychology:

[In your third quarter 2022 commentary you estimated that an "unprecedented" $28 trillion in capital had been wiped out so far this year and you wrote that you "hope the Fed considers that number as it attempts to balance slowing inflation and slowing the economy." I feel like you don't usually comment on Fed policy in your letters. What compelled you to opine on the Fed this time around?]

Nygren: The reason I highlighted how much capital has been lost in 2022 was that I wanted to validate the feelings of fear and frustration that so many investors are experiencing this year. The amount of wealth that has been lost is truly staggering because during a typical equity bear market, the bond market rallies. The simultaneous bear markets in stocks and bonds are rare, and they're exceptionally painful to retirees who have portfolios balanced between equities and fixed income.

You are right that we almost always stay away from macro commentary and, more specifically, Fed policy. The reason I mentioned it was because $28 trillion of lost wealth is such a big number compared to the $1 trillion COVID-19 giveaways or the half-trillion-dollar student loan forgiveness, yet those numbers were getting tremendous airtime and were cited as reasons interest rates need to go a lot higher. The big increase in rates we've seen this year hit some industries quickly, such as housing and autos. But most industries will slow with a lagged effect. I'm sure the Federal Reserve Board of Governors understands that, but I was hoping to give pause to any investors who thought it was obvious that they should wait for even worse news before they considered investing in either stocks or bonds.

I do NOT claim that Nygren's perspective overwhelms all other views. That's Derec's bag, refusing to discuss any cause for inflation other than AOC's agenda. (And Derec fantasizes straw-men, imagining that the rest of us are as dogmatic as him about single-cause inflation.)

Derec will of course not change his opinion one iota, but I thought the Nygren quote might add a new perspective for Infidels with an open mind. The spending power implied by Covid stimulus and loan relief is dwarfed by the loss of (psychological?) spending power associated with falling asset prices.