Post-poll Brexit poll

[whichphilosophy]

Saint Theresa won just over 50% of the 329 votes cast by MPs so I guess she can only increase her share now as lesser (not FEWER) candidates drop out of the race. And she is a "bloody difficult woman" according to Ken Clarke. And if Mr Gove was Prime Minister "we’d go to war with at least three countries at once". But Gove never had a chance. The Pounds was 14% down this morning in Asia. I'm impressed at how calm and smiling they all appear right now. I would long have died of a heart attack. I still haven't the faintest idea how it's all going to unravel. Maybe a Trump scenario in the U.S. might sort of save Britain. But don't ask me why it could do that. Desperate time, desperate measures. A difficult woman as British PM, the great Feminist Trump will have to love her, somehow.
EB

If she is anything like Herr Thatchler, she will move things along with the departure discussions and not kowtow and toady to Brussels in the process.

 

[whichphilosophy]

My take on it is that the Tory party bankrollers will tell Ms May to Brexit and speedily negotiate an EEA 'Norway' deal for Britain, to limit the economic damage from this stupid disaster as much as possible. There will be some small, largely cosmetic changes to freedom of movement that she will negotiate with Merkel and Tusk, to appease the rabid right wing fanatics. Britain will be out of the EU but still will have to abide by the vast majority of EU regulations and pay a contribution, but at least the referendum result has been honoured so UKIP and the Eurosceptics should finally crawl back into their holes. In the 2020 elections the Tories will easily win, with perhaps some seats lost to UKIP but others won from Labour, who are all over the map and won't win a GE any time soon.

The UK is actually a major importer from the EU purchasing much more than it exports, so I don't think anyone will lose any sleep about tariffs but there is a chance the EU will be grown up about the transaction.
I think that there will still be liberal movement of people from the EU, except that they may have their passports checked a little closer.
A lot can change in 2020, but immigration can perhaps be brought under better management. This will ease the continuing housing shortage.
It's not certain how the UKIP will fare after all of this. Steve Wolfe of the current deputy leader do well in debates. Nigel may well be asked to become leader again because the UK hasn't left yet.

Meanwhile the Freedom Party in Austria I(originally formed by an ex-Nazi) is top of the polls in Austria. This is the sort of rebellion one does not wish to see in Europe. Meanwhile the National Front is now attracting some Muslims to broaden its membership. These are non radicals who are against extremism. The UKIP however is not part of that right wing block in the EU parliament.

Europe will always be a good trading area even if the EU finally collapses

Of course she may have to deal with Euro-grovelers in her own party but that is expected.

 

[SimpleDon]

I just "talked" with a friend of mine, a Brit that has lived and worked in Germany for the last twenty years or so. He is a civil engineer who works for the company that I worked for before I "retired." He has a German girlfriend and a German child with her. The girl is almost ten now and is thoroughly German. He even has learned to speak German, although his German is terrible, although no one tells him this.

So for all intents he has permanently moved from the UK to Germany. But of course, he still has a British passport. I asked him what he is going to do now with the Brexit hanging over his and his family's heads.

He told me that as soon as the referendum became a reality last year he applied for and got an Irish passport and registered it with the German authorities. He does have an Irish grandparent, but said that when he applied the Irish weren't demanding any documentation of this. It would be rare for his grandparent, born before 1900, much less him to have this documentation.

He also said that he knew that anyone from Northern Ireland could get an Irish passport without a Republican parent or grandparent.

I asked if he was going to learn Gaelic. He laughed (LOL'ed) and said that there was only room in his brain for one non-English language. I didn't burst his pride.

 

[whichphilosophy]

I just "talked" with a friend of mine, a Brit that has lived and worked in Germany for the last twenty years or so. He is a civil engineer who works for the company that I worked for before I "retired." He has a German girlfriend and a German child with her. The girl is almost ten now and is thoroughly German. He even has learned to speak German, although his German is terrible, although no one tells him this.

So for all intents he has permanently moved from the UK to Germany. But of course, he still has a British passport. I asked him what he is going to do now with the Brexit hanging over his and his family's heads.

He told me that as soon as the referendum became a reality last year he applied for and got an Irish passport and registered it with the German authorities. He does have an Irish grandparent, but said that when he applied the Irish weren't demanding any documentation of this. It would be rare for his grandparent, born before 1900, much less him to have this documentation.

He also said that he knew that anyone from Northern Ireland could get an Irish passport without a Republican parent or grandparent.

I asked if he was going to learn Gaelic. He laughed (LOL'ed) and said that there was only room in his brain for one non-English language. I didn't burst his pride.

It is possible for a foreign national living and working in Germany to apply after six to eight years of citizenship.

 

[DrZoidberg]

 

[angelo]

The UK Government has already pledged £250 Billion to shore up the economy post-Brexit. Do you know how much money that is? It equals around 1000 weeks of UK contributions to the EU. That's right, it costs as much as 20 years of EU contributions to limit the economical fall-out of Brexit. Now tell me again that Brexit was a sensible choice.

It was a sensible choice to the millions of punters who feel alienated by the establishment and their government and politicians.

 

[whichphilosophy]

The UK Government has already pledged £250 Billion to shore up the economy post-Brexit. Do you know how much money that is? It equals around 1000 weeks of UK contributions to the EU. That's right, it costs as much as 20 years of EU contributions to limit the economical fall-out of Brexit. Now tell me again that Brexit was a sensible choice.

It was a sensible choice to the millions of punters who feel alienated by the establishment and their government and politicians.

This as I mentioned earlier is a nonsensical figure. The economy doesn't need propping up. We buy more than Europe than Europe sells to us. So if Europe doesn't buy from us the old commonwealth US and China can fill the void. We will of course deal with Europe because I take it the EU will be grown up about.

 

[bilby]

It was a sensible choice to the millions of punters who feel alienated by the establishment and their government and politicians.

This as I mentioned earlier is a nonsensical figure. The economy doesn't need propping up. We buy more than Europe than Europe sells to us. So if Europe doesn't buy from us the old commonwealth US and China can fill the void. We will of course deal with Europe because I take it the EU will be grown up about.

If the economy doesn't need propping up, how come I just bought ‎£220 for just AU$404, when a fortnight ago AU$400 would have got me around ‎£180? And that's on the tourist exchange, with 1% commission.

I mean, it's nice for me, having planned a holiday in the UK for over a year, to be able to get more spending money in my pocket; And I will live like royalty when I am there in August/September. But it sucks big time for UK citizens paid in ‎£ who want to buy nice things from elsewhere in the world. And lets face it, most of what the UK exports is stuff the ordinary Briton really doesn't buy much - I have heard lots of people bragging in pubs about their new huge flat-screen plasma TV (made in Korea); But not many are so keen to boast of their recent retainer of a stockbroker, or their employment of a hedge fund to manage their assets.

The biggest part of UK exports are services - which New York, Frankfurt, Paris or Tokyo are happy to provide if the UK based financial institutions don't have access to the big markets. The British Empire has been dead for over forty years; only the EU has kept the City of London relevant since.

 

[whichphilosophy]

This as I mentioned earlier is a nonsensical figure. The economy doesn't need propping up. We buy more than Europe than Europe sells to us. So if Europe doesn't buy from us the old commonwealth US and China can fill the void. We will of course deal with Europe because I take it the EU will be grown up about.

If the economy doesn't need propping up, how come I just bought ‎£220 for just AU$404, when a fortnight ago AU$400 would have got me around ‎£180? And that's on the tourist exchange, with 1% commission.

I mean, it's nice for me, having planned a holiday in the UK for over a year, to be able to get more spending money in my pocket; And I will live like royalty when I am there in August/September. But it sucks big time for UK citizens paid in ‎£ who want to buy nice things from elsewhere in the world. And lets face it, most of what the UK exports is stuff the ordinary Briton really doesn't buy much - I have heard lots of people bragging in pubs about their new huge flat-screen plasma TV (made in Korea); But not many are so keen to boast of their recent retainer of a stockbroker, or their employment of a hedge fund to manage their assets.

The biggest part of UK exports are services - which New York, Frankfurt, Paris or Tokyo are happy to provide if the UK based financial institutions don't have access to the big markets. The British Empire has been dead for over forty years; only the EU has kept the City of London relevant since.

As I said, a drop in the £ boosts exports. In a similar vein for several years China refused to increase the value of the RMB against 'American pressure' (those terrible emails).

Essentially a few Euro-drama queens in Europe are having tantrums and making all kinds of threats to leave and move out but they will lose a lot of business. One venue is Frankfurt but being such a small city this could backfire. It does have an excellent Irish pub however with real English pub food.

The Bank of China is looking for a greater presence in London. There would be room for more banks from Malaysia, Singapore, and the US

Any stupid actions by some European institutions will backfire on them. Are they really going to refuse money from UK businesses. It means now they will have to face just a little competition so must not pimp up the interest rates as much as the would like.

In fact it seems like the Paris banks are already wooing for more British business
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23d576b0-386a-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f.html

Paris recently made a bold pitch to woo City of London bankers in the event of Brexit. But, HSBC aside, most banks scoff at the idea that Paris would be a natural venue. Frankfurt, home of the European Central Bank and the financial capital of Europe’s biggest economy, is also problematic.

A campaigner wearing a Vote Leave t-shirt and holding a British Union Flag, also known as a Union Jack, stands on a Westminster Bridge near the Houses of Parliament in London, U.K., Wednesday, June 15, 2016. The Brexit battle took to London's River Thames as boats supporting the "Leave" and "Remain" campaigns jostled for space, while Irish rock star Bob Geldof harangued U.K. Independence Party leader Nigel Farage using a sound system. Photographer: Luke MacGregor/Bloomberg

What was your initial feeling after you heard the results? What questions do you have now? Share your thoughts with the FT community here.

The local economy minister said this week that several foreign banks had explored moving operations to Frankfurt in recent months.

But, as a small city with a population of less than 700,000 people, Frankfurt is seen as provincial and unpopular with staff. Dublin is English-speaking and attractive on tax grounds, but it is a relative backwater. The most likely outcome is that foreign banks with large operations in London will shift staff to a spread of eurozone locations where they already have operations — including Frankfurt, Dublin, Paris, Warsaw and Lisbon. That would fragment the financial services industry in Europe, potentially weakening

 

[DrZoidberg]

This as I mentioned earlier is a nonsensical figure. The economy doesn't need propping up. We buy more than Europe than Europe sells to us. So if Europe doesn't buy from us the old commonwealth US and China can fill the void. We will of course deal with Europe because I take it the EU will be grown up about.

If the economy doesn't need propping up, how come I just bought ‎£220 for just AU$404, when a fortnight ago AU$400 would have got me around ‎£180? And that's on the tourist exchange, with 1% commission.

I mean, it's nice for me, having planned a holiday in the UK for over a year, to be able to get more spending money in my pocket; And I will live like royalty when I am there in August/September. But it sucks big time for UK citizens paid in ‎£ who want to buy nice things from elsewhere in the world. And lets face it, most of what the UK exports is stuff the ordinary Briton really doesn't buy much - I have heard lots of people bragging in pubs about their new huge flat-screen plasma TV (made in Korea); But not many are so keen to boast of their recent retainer of a stockbroker, or their employment of a hedge fund to manage their assets.

The biggest part of UK exports are services - which New York, Frankfurt, Paris or Tokyo are happy to provide if the UK based financial institutions don't have access to the big markets. The British Empire has been dead for over forty years; only the EU has kept the City of London relevant since.

This is important. The UK's main export is simply being the financial center of Europe. I have a hard time seeing how they can stay being that while outside the EU.

This is the reason I don't think the UK will leave the EU. Any leader doing so will end up with being the leader who impoverished the UK and robbed it of it's status as financial center. Nobody wants to be that.

 

[jonatha]

In fact it seems like the Paris banks are already wooing for more British business

The Paris banks aren't soliciting business from Britain.

They're trying to get London's financial services firms to relocate.

Honda built 122000 vehicles in Swindon in 2014. They sold fewer than half of those to buyers in the UK (the linked site shows total Honda sales figures in the UK, which will include models that aren't manufactured there). Honda has no other auto manufacturing facilities in the EU - wanna bet they're looking at building one on the continent?

ETA - Nissan built over half a million vehicles in Sunderland in 2014 and sold less than 30% of them in the UK. And Nissan already has a plant in Barcelona - look for it to expand shortly.

 

[whichphilosophy]

In fact it seems like the Paris banks are already wooing for more British business

The Paris banks aren't soliciting business from Britain.

They're trying to get London's financial services firms to relocate.

Honda built 122000 vehicles in Swindon in 2014. They sold fewer than half of those to buyers in the UK (the linked site shows total Honda sales figures in the UK, which will include models that aren't manufactured there). Honda has no other auto manufacturing facilities in the EU - wanna bet they're looking at building one on the continent?

ETA - Nissan built over half a million vehicles in Sunderland in 2014 and sold less than 30% of them in the UK. And Nissan already has a plant in Barcelona - look for it to expand shortly.

Exactly because London's services are so valuable.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...h-love-france-woos-post-brexit-u-k-executives

 

[jonatha]

The Paris banks aren't soliciting business from Britain.

They're trying to get London's financial services firms to relocate.

Honda built 122000 vehicles in Swindon in 2014. They sold fewer than half of those to buyers in the UK (the linked site shows total Honda sales figures in the UK, which will include models that aren't manufactured there). Honda has no other auto manufacturing facilities in the EU - wanna bet they're looking at building one on the continent?

ETA - Nissan built over half a million vehicles in Sunderland in 2014 and sold less than 30% of them in the UK. And Nissan already has a plant in Barcelona - look for it to expand shortly.

Exactly because London's services are so valuable.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...h-love-france-woos-post-brexit-u-k-executives

You'll have to explain how the London financial services sector moving to Paris supports your general argument that the economic fallout of Brexit can't be all that bad since the UK imports more from the EU than it exports

 

[SimpleDon]

I just "talked" with a friend of mine, a Brit that has lived and worked in Germany for the last twenty years or so. He is a civil engineer who works for the company that I worked for before I "retired." He has a German girlfriend and a German child with her. The girl is almost ten now and is thoroughly German. He even has learned to speak German, although his German is terrible, although no one tells him this.

So for all intents he has permanently moved from the UK to Germany. But of course, he still has a British passport. I asked him what he is going to do now with the Brexit hanging over his and his family's heads.

He told me that as soon as the referendum became a reality last year he applied for and got an Irish passport and registered it with the German authorities. He does have an Irish grandparent, but said that when he applied the Irish weren't demanding any documentation of this. It would be rare for his grandparent, born before 1900, much less him to have this documentation.

He also said that he knew that anyone from Northern Ireland could get an Irish passport without a Republican parent or grandparent.

I asked if he was going to learn Gaelic. He laughed (LOL'ed) and said that there was only room in his brain for one non-English language. I didn't burst his pride.

It is possible for a foreign national living and working in Germany to apply after six to eight years of citizenship.

He doesn't want to give up his British citizenship. He wants to give his daughter the chance to decide if she wants to be British or German.

They are sending their daughter to a bilingual American school in Cologne, die Internationale Friedensschule Köln, but are thinking about changing to the English only St. George's. My son and daughter went to both. This is mainly what we talked about, which private school to send our children to. It is the same here in Atlanta.

 

[whichphilosophy]

Exactly because London's services are so valuable.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...h-love-france-woos-post-brexit-u-k-executives

You'll have to explain how the London financial services sector moving to Paris supports your general argument that the economic fallout of Brexit can't be all that bad since the UK imports more from the EU than it exports

It seems Frankfurt is competing with Paris, but why do they need British businesses to go there, hence the wooing. Anyway the Brexit discussions haven't even been held yet. There is no economic fallout; simply overtures and speculation?

 

[whichphilosophy]

If the economy doesn't need propping up, how come I just bought ‎£220 for just AU$404, when a fortnight ago AU$400 would have got me around ‎£180? And that's on the tourist exchange, with 1% commission.

I mean, it's nice for me, having planned a holiday in the UK for over a year, to be able to get more spending money in my pocket; And I will live like royalty when I am there in August/September. But it sucks big time for UK citizens paid in ‎£ who want to buy nice things from elsewhere in the world. And lets face it, most of what the UK exports is stuff the ordinary Briton really doesn't buy much - I have heard lots of people bragging in pubs about their new huge flat-screen plasma TV (made in Korea); But not many are so keen to boast of their recent retainer of a stockbroker, or their employment of a hedge fund to manage their assets.

The biggest part of UK exports are services - which New York, Frankfurt, Paris or Tokyo are happy to provide if the UK based financial institutions don't have access to the big markets. The British Empire has been dead for over forty years; only the EU has kept the City of London relevant since.

This is important. The UK's main export is simply being the financial center of Europe. I have a hard time seeing how they can stay being that while outside the EU.

This is the reason I don't think the UK will leave the EU. Any leader doing so will end up with being the leader who impoverished the UK and robbed it of it's status as financial center. Nobody wants to be that.

Faster growth of UK imports vs. exports has resulted in a widening trade deficit, to about £61 billion (2014) against just £11.2 billion in 1999. The UK however has been expanding its foreign exports and imports have grown steadily each year since 1999. It will also be better off by £21 billion per year when it no longer pays membership fees to the EU.

 

[DrZoidberg]

This is important. The UK's main export is simply being the financial center of Europe. I have a hard time seeing how they can stay being that while outside the EU.

This is the reason I don't think the UK will leave the EU. Any leader doing so will end up with being the leader who impoverished the UK and robbed it of it's status as financial center. Nobody wants to be that.

Faster growth of UK imports vs. exports has resulted in a widening trade deficit, to about £61 billion (2014) against just £11.2 billion in 1999. The UK however has been expanding its foreign exports and imports have grown steadily each year since 1999. It will also be better off by £21 billion per year when it no longer pays membership fees to the EU.

Who gives a fuck about the trade deficit? Are you a mercantilist? The fact that the money passes through the UK is what counts. The turnover.

 

[jonatha]

You'll have to explain how the London financial services sector moving to Paris supports your general argument that the economic fallout of Brexit can't be all that bad since the UK imports more from the EU than it exports

It seems Frankfurt is competing with Paris, but why do they need British businesses to go there, hence the wooing. Anyway the Brexit discussions haven't even been held yet. There is no economic fallout; simply overtures and speculation?

This strikes me as a non sequitur.

If Brexit occurs and the UK no longer has as favorable access to the Common Market as they presently do, the business that London is presently conducting on behalf of companies operating in other EU countries is very likely to migrate elsewhere. Paris is bidding to be the destination.

How does this not represent a rather serious economic blow to the UK?

 

[jonatha]

The UK however has been expanding its foreign exports and imports have grown steadily each year since 1999.

Of course it has. The UK sent 60,000 Hondas and over 300,000 Nissans to the continent in 2014.

When Honda and Nissan have to pay a tariff on each unit those numbers are likely to dwindle.

It will also be better off by £21 billion per year when it no longer pays membership fees to the EU.

If it doesn't pay membership fees, it doesn't get preferential access to the Common Market. Ask Norway and Switzerland how that works.....

 

[whichphilosophy]

Of course it has. The UK sent 60,000 Hondas and over 300,000 Nissans to the continent in 2014.

When Honda and Nissan have to pay a tariff on each unit those numbers are likely to dwindle.

It will also be better off by £21 billion per year when it no longer pays membership fees to the EU.

If it doesn't pay membership fees, it doesn't get preferential access to the Common Market. Ask Norway and Switzerland how that works.....

For the period 2014 to 2020 the financial commitment of Norway as it is part of some EEA and the Shenghen agreements will be 447 Euros. Prior to that it was less than 391 Euros

For instance Norway is part of the Shenghen agreement and has agreements with respect to cooperating with countering terrorism. It provides Liasion officers in the Europol headquarters.

http://www.eu-norway.org/Policyareas/Justice-and-home-affairs/#.V38Skk0kqM8

The Dublin cooperation, which establishes the criteria and mechanisms for determining which state is responsible for examining an asylum application;
•The European Migration Network, which contributes to policy development on migration and asylum;
•Europol, the European Law Enforcement Organisation, which aims at improving cooperation between the competent authorities in EU member states and their effectiveness in preventing and combating terrorism, drug trafficking and other forms of organised crime. Three Norwegian liaison officers are posted to the organisation’s headquarters in The Hague;
•Eurojust, a cooperation network set up to encourage and coordinate the investigation and prosecution of serious cross-border crime. A Norwegian public prosecutor and a Norwegian police prosecutor are currently working for Eurojust in The Hague;
•The European Asylum Support Office (EASO), which aims at enhancing practical cooperation on asylum matters and helping member states fulfil their European and international obligations to give protection to people in need.
•An agreement on mutual legal assistance (exchange of information between law-enforcement and prosecution services);
•A surrender agreement based on the principles of the European Arrest Warrant*;
•An agreement on the Prüm Treaty on enhanced police cooperation in order to combat terrorism and international crime*.
•Norway is currently negotiating association to EU-LISA, the IT agency managing all large scale IT-systems within the justice- and home affairs area.

Security and Trade agreements can be agreed without being in the EU itself.

Norway's financial contribution is listed here
http://www.eu-norway.org/eu/Financial-contribution/#.V38VQE0kqM9

For the period 2014 – 2021, Norway’s annual contribution to 15 beneficiary states through the current EEA and Norway Grants scheme will be 391 million euro.

Norway participates in a number of EU programmes through provisions in the EEA Agreement or on the basis of bilateral agreements with the EU. The largest are the Horizon 2020 and, Erasmus+, Galileo and Copernicus. Norway (and our EEA partners Iceland and Liechtenstein) contributes to the budget of the programmes we participate in. For the period 2014 – 2020, Norway’s average annual commitment is 447 million euro

A Daily Telegraph article last year
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/gen...ear-Britain-there-is-life-outside-the-EU.html

Iceland, Norway and Switzerland are doing fine working with Europe but not in Europe. The drama queens of Brussels and the Stay camp are of course trying to spread panic.